ROARABLE // PRO
GLOBAL DESKS // NYC --:--:-- NYSE
US TAPE
ROAR ▸

NVS // Novartis AG

DES <GO> NYSE RQD COCKPIT → CIK 0001114448 ↗
Health Care • Biotechnology: Pharmaceutical Preparations
$160.79 ▼ -0.31 (-0.19%)
MKT CAP: $307.40B • VOL: 3.15M
NVS // ROARABLE RATING & 5-PILLAR RQD CONFIDENCE 02:00 EST DETERMINISTIC ENGINE
PRIOR: RQD 66/100 [C+] (+0 PT) • UNCHANGED
ROARABLE C+
RQD CONFIDENCE
66 / 100 +0D
5 X 20-PT QUANT PILLARS
E 0 D 35 C 59 B 70 A 86+
Roarable Hold — Upper Neutral / Watch for Breakout
01 MASSIVE / SEC XBRL
Forensic Fundamentals
[LOCKED] FLAGGED
UNLOCK BELOW TO REVEAL
02 INSTITUTIONAL TAPE & TREND
Whale & Options Flow
15 / 20
SOLID
52W RANGE 80% • VS 200D +6% • RSI 69.1
03 SEC XBRL CAPITAL ALLOCATION
Insider & Capital Conviction
[LOCKED] FLAGGED
UNLOCK BELOW TO REVEAL
04 FRED 90D r-MATRIX
Macro Regime Fit
12 / 20
NEUTRAL
NEUTRAL • r(10Y)=-0.23 (+23bp) • r(OAS)=-0.02
05 10-K REDLINE AUDIT
Forensic 10-K Risk
16 / 20
STRONG
20 BASE - 4 DEDUCT • 0 CRIT / 0 MED • STABLE
ALERT

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NVS // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +11.18%📐 HORIZONTAL RANGE
2026-11-02O $156.1H $161.1L $156.1C $160.8VOL 2.24M
RES: $164.0SUP: $134.2SMA50: $148.5SMA200: $152.0
$166.4$158.4$150.5$142.5$134.5RES $164.0SUP $134.2$160.82026-05-042026-06-172026-08-042026-09-182026-11-02
NVS // INSTITUTIONAL BULL VS. BEAR FORENSIC DEBATE
NEUTRAL / PAIR TRADE CONVICTION: 53/100
BEAR 0
100 BULL

Novartis AG (NVS) exhibits 45.0% gross margins and 9.9% return on invested capital within Health Care (Biotechnology: Pharmaceutical Preparations), balanced against a 21.0x enterprise multiple and 4.8% implied options volatility.

▲ INSTITUTIONAL BULL THESIS (LONG)
01. Operating Leverage & Capital Efficiency Moat

Sustained 45.0% gross profitability converts into 13.9% operating margin and 9.9% ROIC, outpacing sector cost of capital.

ROIC: 9.9% // GM: 45.0%
02. Top-Line Expansion & Cash Conversion

YoY revenue trajectory of +15.4% paired with 2.21% free cash flow yield supports self-funded R&D and capital return.

REV YOY: +15.4% // FCF YLD: 2.21%
03. Balance Sheet Solvency & Forensic Quality

Altman Z-Score of 3.74 and Piotroski F-Score of 8/9 indicate low near-term refinancing stress.

ALTMAN Z: 3.74 // F-SCORE: 8/9
▼ INSTITUTIONAL BEAR THESIS (SHORT / RISK)
01. Multiple Compression & Duration Sensitivity

Trading at 32.8x trailing P/E (27.6x Fwd P/E) leaves valuation vulnerable if real 10Y TIPS yields spike.

P/E: 32.8x // EV/EBITDA: 21.0x
02. Options Skew & Event Volatility Risk

Options market prices a ±5.2% implied move with a 0.85 put/call ratio around $160.79 max pain.

IMPL MOVE: ±5.2% // P/C: 0.85
03. Competitive Margin & CapEx Cycle Pressure

Elevated industry capital intensity and customer concentration in Biotechnology: Pharmaceutical Preparations require continuous execution to defend 10.9% net margins.

NET MARGIN: 10.9% // D/E: 0.39x
KEY CATALYST // Upcoming 10-Q/10-K XBRL margin progression, guidance revision vs 27.6x forward consensus, and institutional 13F positioning.
MACRO REGIME // Monitor US 10Y Real Yields (DFII10) and High-Yield Credit Spreads (OAS) for beta-adjusted multiple impact (Beta 1.05).
FORM 4 & 13F FLOW OPEN OWN <GO>
FILER SIDE $ VALUE
INSPECT FULL OWNERSHIP LEDGER IN OWN <GO>
UNUSUAL OPTIONS TAPE OPEN OPT <GO>
STRIKE / EXP TYPE PREMIUM
INSPECT GEX & CHAIN IN OPT <GO>
KEY VALUATION & PROFITABILITY RATIOS XBRL FA <GO>
TRAILING P/E 32.8x
FORWARD P/E 27.6x
EV / EBITDA 21.0x
FCF YIELD 2.21%
GROSS MARGIN —
OPERATING MARGIN 13.9%
NET MARGIN 10.9%
ROIC % 9.9%
REV GROWTH YOY +15.4%
DILUTED EPS TTM $4.90
DEBT / EQUITY 0.39x
DIVIDEND YIELD 0.00%
RSI-14 MOMENTUM 69.1
5Y EQUITY BETA 1.05
FRED MACRO SENSITIVITY (PEARSON r) ECST <GO>
MACRO CORRELATION CALIBRATION ACTIVE BELOW.
FRED MACRO REGIME STRESS-TEST SIMULATOR // NVSPEARSON R VARIANCE ENGINE
01 // SELECT FEDERAL RESERVE & CREDIT SHOCK SCENARIO
02 // POSITION NOTIONAL EXPOSURE
HEADLINE STRESS SCORE
75/100SEVERE DRAWDOWN PRESSURE
PRIMARY FACTOR EXPOSURE
DFII10 // -0.61 r
Latest: 2.08%
EST. DIRECTIONAL MOVE
-8.50%
Implied Px: $147.13
EST. DOLLAR VARIANCE
-$4,248
On $50,000 Notional
[LOCKED // MULTI-FACTOR DRAWDOWN HEDGE & MACRO TRIGGER ALERT]

Unblur the exact $50,000 delta-adjusted ETF/options hedge ratio for NVS & activate live FRED threshold breach alerts.

HEAD-TO-HEAD PEER COMPARISONS COMP <GO>