ROARABLE // PRO
GLOBAL DESKS // NYC --:--:-- NYSE
US TAPE
ROAR ▸

MUSA // Murphy USA Inc.

DES <GO> NYSE RQD COCKPIT → CIK 0001573516 ↗
Consumer Discretionary • Retail-Auto Dealers and Gas Stations
$534.95 ▼ -5.05 (-0.93%)
MKT CAP: $9.93B • VOL: 279.9K
MUSA // ROARABLE RATING & 5-PILLAR RQD CONFIDENCE 02:00 EST DETERMINISTIC ENGINE
PRIOR: RQD 76/100 [B+] (+0 PT) • UNCHANGED
ROARABLE B+
RQD CONFIDENCE
76 / 100 +0D
5 X 20-PT QUANT PILLARS
E 0 D 35 C 59 B 70 A 86+
Roarable Buy — Very Good Cash & Smart-Money Inflow
01 MASSIVE / SEC XBRL
Forensic Fundamentals
17 / 20
STRONG
FCF -4% vs NI -6.3% • ROIC-WACC +18.2% • Z 3.73
02 INSTITUTIONAL TAPE & TREND
Whale & Options Flow
[LOCKED] FLAGGED
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03 SEC XBRL CAPITAL ALLOCATION
Insider & Capital Conviction
17 / 20
STRONG
FCF YIELD +6.9% • P/E 17.7x • F-SCORE 6/9
04 FRED 90D r-MATRIX
Macro Regime Fit
15 / 20
SOLID
TAILWIND • r(10Y)=+0.02 (+23bp) • r(OAS)=+0.06
05 10-K REDLINE AUDIT
Forensic 10-K Risk
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ALERT

Why did MUSA's Forensic 10-K Risk & Whale & Options Flow sub-score just flash a warning? Enter your email to unlock the full 5-Pillar Rating Breakdown + get instant alerts whenever MUSA is Upgraded or Downgraded.

MUSA // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -9.76%⚡ TESTING RESISTANCE
2026-11-02O $515.3H $540.0L $515.3C $535.0VOL 497.2K
RES: $545.5SUP: $470.3SMA50: $523.9SMA200: $517.5
$651.6$587.3$523.0$458.8$394.5RES $545.5SUP $470.3$535.02026-05-042026-06-172026-08-042026-09-182026-11-02
MUSA // INSTITUTIONAL BULL VS. BEAR FORENSIC DEBATE
ACCUMULATE CONVICTION: 62/100
BEAR 0
100 BULL

Murphy USA Inc. (MUSA) exhibits 45.0% gross margins and 24.5% return on invested capital within Consumer Discretionary (Retail-Auto Dealers and Gas Stations), balanced against a 14.1x enterprise multiple and 4.8% implied options volatility.

▲ INSTITUTIONAL BULL THESIS (LONG)
01. Operating Leverage & Capital Efficiency Moat

Sustained 45.0% gross profitability converts into 25.9% operating margin and 24.5% ROIC, outpacing sector cost of capital.

ROIC: 24.5% // GM: 45.0%
02. Top-Line Expansion & Cash Conversion

YoY revenue trajectory of +12.1% paired with 6.94% free cash flow yield supports self-funded R&D and capital return.

REV YOY: +12.1% // FCF YLD: 6.94%
03. Balance Sheet Solvency & Forensic Quality

Altman Z-Score of 3.73 and Piotroski F-Score of 6/9 indicate low near-term refinancing stress.

ALTMAN Z: 3.73 // F-SCORE: 6/9
▼ INSTITUTIONAL BEAR THESIS (SHORT / RISK)
01. Multiple Compression & Duration Sensitivity

Trading at 21.1x trailing P/E (17.7x Fwd P/E) leaves valuation vulnerable if real 10Y TIPS yields spike.

P/E: 21.1x // EV/EBITDA: 14.1x
02. Options Skew & Event Volatility Risk

Options market prices a ±5.2% implied move with a 0.85 put/call ratio around $534.95 max pain.

IMPL MOVE: ±5.2% // P/C: 0.85
03. Competitive Margin & CapEx Cycle Pressure

Elevated industry capital intensity and customer concentration in Retail-Auto Dealers and Gas Stations require continuous execution to defend 16.9% net margins.

NET MARGIN: 16.9% // D/E: 2.76x
KEY CATALYST // Upcoming 10-Q/10-K XBRL margin progression, guidance revision vs 17.7x forward consensus, and institutional 13F positioning.
MACRO REGIME // Monitor US 10Y Real Yields (DFII10) and High-Yield Credit Spreads (OAS) for beta-adjusted multiple impact (Beta 0.96).
FORM 4 & 13F FLOW OPEN OWN <GO>
FILER SIDE $ VALUE
INSPECT FULL OWNERSHIP LEDGER IN OWN <GO>
UNUSUAL OPTIONS TAPE OPEN OPT <GO>
STRIKE / EXP TYPE PREMIUM
INSPECT GEX & CHAIN IN OPT <GO>
KEY VALUATION & PROFITABILITY RATIOS XBRL FA <GO>
TRAILING P/E 21.1x
FORWARD P/E 17.7x
EV / EBITDA 14.1x
FCF YIELD 6.94%
GROSS MARGIN —
OPERATING MARGIN 25.9%
NET MARGIN 16.9%
ROIC % 24.5%
REV GROWTH YOY +12.1%
DILUTED EPS TTM $25.60
DEBT / EQUITY 2.76x
DIVIDEND YIELD 0.42%
RSI-14 MOMENTUM 54.7
5Y EQUITY BETA 0.96
FRED MACRO SENSITIVITY (PEARSON r) ECST <GO>
MACRO CORRELATION CALIBRATION ACTIVE BELOW.
FRED MACRO REGIME STRESS-TEST SIMULATOR // MUSAPEARSON R VARIANCE ENGINE
01 // SELECT FEDERAL RESERVE & CREDIT SHOCK SCENARIO
02 // POSITION NOTIONAL EXPOSURE
HEADLINE STRESS SCORE
75/100SEVERE DRAWDOWN PRESSURE
PRIMARY FACTOR EXPOSURE
DFII10 // -0.61 r
Latest: 2.08%
EST. DIRECTIONAL MOVE
-8.50%
Implied Px: $489.50
EST. DOLLAR VARIANCE
-$4,248
On $50,000 Notional
[LOCKED // MULTI-FACTOR DRAWDOWN HEDGE & MACRO TRIGGER ALERT]

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HEAD-TO-HEAD PEER COMPARISONS COMP <GO>