ROARABLE // PRO
GLOBAL DESKS // NYC --:--:-- NYSE
US TAPE
ROAR ▸

MAX // MediaAlpha Inc. (Class A)

DES <GO> NYSE RQD COCKPIT → CIK 0001818383 ↗
Consumer Discretionary • Business Services
$14.78 ▲ +0.03 (+0.20%)
MKT CAP: $873.1M • VOL: 1.94M
MAX // ROARABLE RATING & 5-PILLAR RQD CONFIDENCE 02:00 EST DETERMINISTIC ENGINE
PRIOR: RQD 69/100 [C+] (+0 PT) • UNCHANGED
ROARABLE C+
RQD CONFIDENCE
69 / 100 +0D
5 X 20-PT QUANT PILLARS
E 0 D 35 C 59 B 70 A 86+
Roarable Hold — Upper Neutral / Watch for Breakout
01 MASSIVE / SEC XBRL
Forensic Fundamentals
15 / 20
SOLID
FCF +43.1% vs NI +54.1% • ROIC-WACC +13.5% • Z 2.64
02 INSTITUTIONAL TAPE & TREND
Whale & Options Flow
17 / 20
STRONG
52W RANGE 98% • VS 200D +38.4% • RSI 71.8
03 SEC XBRL CAPITAL ALLOCATION
Insider & Capital Conviction
16 / 20
STRONG
FCF YIELD +7.8% • P/E 27.4x • F-SCORE 7/9
04 FRED 90D r-MATRIX
Macro Regime Fit
[LOCKED] FLAGGED
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05 10-K REDLINE AUDIT
Forensic 10-K Risk
[LOCKED] FLAGGED
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ALERT

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MAX // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +66.25%⚡ TESTING RESISTANCE
2026-11-03O $14.13H $14.78L $14.13C $14.78VOL 2.02M
RES: $14.87SUP: $9.35SMA50: $11.34SMA200: $10.66
$15.36$13.34$11.32$9.30$7.28RES $14.87SUP $9.35$14.782026-05-042026-06-172026-08-042026-09-182026-11-03
MAX // INSTITUTIONAL BULL VS. BEAR FORENSIC DEBATE
ACCUMULATE CONVICTION: 67/100
BEAR 0
100 BULL

MediaAlpha Inc. (Class A) (MAX) exhibits 15.0% gross margins and 19.7% return on invested capital within Consumer Discretionary (Business Services), balanced against a 41.1x enterprise multiple and 4.8% implied options volatility.

▲ INSTITUTIONAL BULL THESIS (LONG)
01. Operating Leverage & Capital Efficiency Moat

Sustained 15.0% gross profitability converts into 2.0% operating margin and 19.7% ROIC, outpacing sector cost of capital.

ROIC: 19.7% // GM: 15.0%
02. Top-Line Expansion & Cash Conversion

YoY revenue trajectory of +28.8% paired with 7.80% free cash flow yield supports self-funded R&D and capital return.

REV YOY: +28.8% // FCF YLD: 7.80%
03. Balance Sheet Solvency & Forensic Quality

Altman Z-Score of 2.64 and Piotroski F-Score of 7/9 indicate low near-term refinancing stress.

ALTMAN Z: 2.64 // F-SCORE: 7/9
▼ INSTITUTIONAL BEAR THESIS (SHORT / RISK)
01. Multiple Compression & Duration Sensitivity

Trading at 32.6x trailing P/E (27.4x Fwd P/E) leaves valuation vulnerable if real 10Y TIPS yields spike.

P/E: 32.6x // EV/EBITDA: 41.1x
02. Options Skew & Event Volatility Risk

Options market prices a ±5.2% implied move with a 0.85 put/call ratio around $14.78 max pain.

IMPL MOVE: ±5.2% // P/C: 0.85
03. Competitive Margin & CapEx Cycle Pressure

Elevated industry capital intensity and customer concentration in Business Services require continuous execution to defend 2.3% net margins.

NET MARGIN: 2.3% // D/E: 8.50x
KEY CATALYST // Upcoming 10-Q/10-K XBRL margin progression, guidance revision vs 27.4x forward consensus, and institutional 13F positioning.
MACRO REGIME // Monitor US 10Y Real Yields (DFII10) and High-Yield Credit Spreads (OAS) for beta-adjusted multiple impact (Beta 1.10).
FORM 4 & 13F FLOW OPEN OWN <GO>
FILER SIDE $ VALUE
INSPECT FULL OWNERSHIP LEDGER IN OWN <GO>
UNUSUAL OPTIONS TAPE OPEN OPT <GO>
STRIKE / EXP TYPE PREMIUM
INSPECT GEX & CHAIN IN OPT <GO>
KEY VALUATION & PROFITABILITY RATIOS XBRL FA <GO>
TRAILING P/E 32.6x
FORWARD P/E 27.4x
EV / EBITDA 41.1x
FCF YIELD 7.80%
GROSS MARGIN 15.0%
OPERATING MARGIN 2.0%
NET MARGIN 2.3%
ROIC % 19.7%
REV GROWTH YOY +28.8%
DILUTED EPS TTM $0.43
DEBT / EQUITY 8.50x
DIVIDEND YIELD 0.00%
RSI-14 MOMENTUM 71.8
5Y EQUITY BETA —
FRED MACRO SENSITIVITY (PEARSON r) ECST <GO>
MACRO CORRELATION CALIBRATION ACTIVE BELOW.
FRED MACRO REGIME STRESS-TEST SIMULATOR // MAXPEARSON R VARIANCE ENGINE
01 // SELECT FEDERAL RESERVE & CREDIT SHOCK SCENARIO
02 // POSITION NOTIONAL EXPOSURE
HEADLINE STRESS SCORE
75/100SEVERE DRAWDOWN PRESSURE
PRIMARY FACTOR EXPOSURE
DFII10 // -0.61 r
Latest: 2.08%
EST. DIRECTIONAL MOVE
-8.50%
Implied Px: $13.52
EST. DOLLAR VARIANCE
-$4,248
On $50,000 Notional
[LOCKED // MULTI-FACTOR DRAWDOWN HEDGE & MACRO TRIGGER ALERT]

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HEAD-TO-HEAD PEER COMPARISONS COMP <GO>