ROARABLE // PRO
GLOBAL DESKS // NYC --:--:-- NYSE
US TAPE
ROAR ▸

MA // Mastercard Incorporated

DES <GO> NYSE RQD COCKPIT → CIK 0001141391 ↗
Consumer Discretionary • Business Services
$638.01 ▲ +2.31 (+0.36%)
MKT CAP: $556.88B • VOL: 4.52M
MA // ROARABLE RATING & 5-PILLAR RQD CONFIDENCE 02:00 EST DETERMINISTIC ENGINE
PRIOR: RQD 79/100 [B+] (+0 PT) • UNCHANGED
ROARABLE B+
RQD CONFIDENCE
79 / 100 +0D
5 X 20-PT QUANT PILLARS
E 0 D 35 C 59 B 70 A 86+
Roarable Buy — Very Good Cash & Smart-Money Inflow
01 MASSIVE / SEC XBRL
Forensic Fundamentals
19 / 20
STRONG
FCF +19.9% vs NI +16.3% • ROIC-WACC +27.2% • Z 11.17
02 INSTITUTIONAL TAPE & TREND
Whale & Options Flow
20 / 20
STRONG
52W RANGE 95% • VS 200D +18.5% • RSI 68.8
03 SEC XBRL CAPITAL ALLOCATION
Insider & Capital Conviction
15 / 20
SOLID
FCF YIELD +3.1% • P/E 31.2x • F-SCORE 8/9
04 FRED 90D r-MATRIX
Macro Regime Fit
[LOCKED] FLAGGED
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05 10-K REDLINE AUDIT
Forensic 10-K Risk
[LOCKED] FLAGGED
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ALERT

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MA // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +26.40%⚡ TESTING RESISTANCE
2026-11-02O $610.3H $638.0L $610.3C $638.0VOL 4.44M
RES: $646.2SUP: $538.9SMA50: $588.6SMA200: $536.7
$656.8$604.7$552.6$500.5$448.3RES $646.2SUP $538.9$638.02026-05-042026-06-172026-08-042026-09-182026-11-02
MA // INSTITUTIONAL BULL VS. BEAR FORENSIC DEBATE
ACCUMULATE CONVICTION: 69/100
BEAR 0
100 BULL

Mastercard Incorporated (MA) exhibits 45.0% gross margins and 33.5% return on invested capital within Consumer Discretionary (Business Services), balanced against a 29.2x enterprise multiple and 4.8% implied options volatility.

▲ INSTITUTIONAL BULL THESIS (LONG)
01. Operating Leverage & Capital Efficiency Moat

Sustained 45.0% gross profitability converts into 57.6% operating margin and 33.5% ROIC, outpacing sector cost of capital.

ROIC: 33.5% // GM: 45.0%
02. Top-Line Expansion & Cash Conversion

YoY revenue trajectory of +16.4% paired with 3.08% free cash flow yield supports self-funded R&D and capital return.

REV YOY: +16.4% // FCF YLD: 3.08%
03. Balance Sheet Solvency & Forensic Quality

Altman Z-Score of 11.17 and Piotroski F-Score of 8/9 indicate low near-term refinancing stress.

ALTMAN Z: 11.17 // F-SCORE: 8/9
▼ INSTITUTIONAL BEAR THESIS (SHORT / RISK)
01. Multiple Compression & Duration Sensitivity

Trading at 37.2x trailing P/E (31.2x Fwd P/E) leaves valuation vulnerable if real 10Y TIPS yields spike.

P/E: 37.2x // EV/EBITDA: 29.2x
02. Options Skew & Event Volatility Risk

Options market prices a ±5.2% implied move with a 0.85 put/call ratio around $638.01 max pain.

IMPL MOVE: ±5.2% // P/C: 0.85
03. Competitive Margin & CapEx Cycle Pressure

Elevated industry capital intensity and customer concentration in Business Services require continuous execution to defend 45.6% net margins.

NET MARGIN: 45.6% // D/E: 2.36x
KEY CATALYST // Upcoming 10-Q/10-K XBRL margin progression, guidance revision vs 31.2x forward consensus, and institutional 13F positioning.
MACRO REGIME // Monitor US 10Y Real Yields (DFII10) and High-Yield Credit Spreads (OAS) for beta-adjusted multiple impact (Beta 0.90).
FORM 4 & 13F FLOW OPEN OWN <GO>
FILER SIDE $ VALUE
INSPECT FULL OWNERSHIP LEDGER IN OWN <GO>
UNUSUAL OPTIONS TAPE OPEN OPT <GO>
STRIKE / EXP TYPE PREMIUM
INSPECT GEX & CHAIN IN OPT <GO>
KEY VALUATION & PROFITABILITY RATIOS XBRL FA <GO>
TRAILING P/E 37.2x
FORWARD P/E 31.2x
EV / EBITDA 29.2x
FCF YIELD 3.08%
GROSS MARGIN —
OPERATING MARGIN 57.6%
NET MARGIN 45.6%
ROIC % 33.5%
REV GROWTH YOY +16.4%
DILUTED EPS TTM $17.09
DEBT / EQUITY 2.36x
DIVIDEND YIELD 0.49%
RSI-14 MOMENTUM 68.8
5Y EQUITY BETA 0.90
FRED MACRO SENSITIVITY (PEARSON r) ECST <GO>
MACRO CORRELATION CALIBRATION ACTIVE BELOW.
FRED MACRO REGIME STRESS-TEST SIMULATOR // MAPEARSON R VARIANCE ENGINE
01 // SELECT FEDERAL RESERVE & CREDIT SHOCK SCENARIO
02 // POSITION NOTIONAL EXPOSURE
HEADLINE STRESS SCORE
75/100SEVERE DRAWDOWN PRESSURE
PRIMARY FACTOR EXPOSURE
DFII10 // -0.61 r
Latest: 2.08%
EST. DIRECTIONAL MOVE
-8.50%
Implied Px: $583.80
EST. DOLLAR VARIANCE
-$4,248
On $50,000 Notional
[LOCKED // MULTI-FACTOR DRAWDOWN HEDGE & MACRO TRIGGER ALERT]

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HEAD-TO-HEAD PEER COMPARISONS COMP <GO>