ROARABLE // PRO
GLOBAL DESKS // NYC --:--:-- NYSE
US TAPE
ROAR ▸

ITW // Illinois Tool Works Inc.

DES <GO> NYSE RQD COCKPIT → CIK 0000049826 ↗
Industrials • Industrial Machinery/Components
$278.55 ▼ -2.85 (-1.01%)
MKT CAP: $79.97B • VOL: 1.72M
ITW // ROARABLE RATING & 5-PILLAR RQD CONFIDENCE 02:00 EST DETERMINISTIC ENGINE
PRIOR: RQD 76/100 [B+] (+0 PT) • UNCHANGED
ROARABLE B+
RQD CONFIDENCE
76 / 100 +0D
5 X 20-PT QUANT PILLARS
E 0 D 35 C 59 B 70 A 86+
Roarable Buy — Very Good Cash & Smart-Money Inflow
01 MASSIVE / SEC XBRL
Forensic Fundamentals
18 / 20
STRONG
FCF -4.8% vs NI +0% • ROIC-WACC +15.9% • Z 10.74
02 INSTITUTIONAL TAPE & TREND
Whale & Options Flow
15 / 20
SOLID
52W RANGE 66% • VS 200D +3.9% • RSI 62.2
03 SEC XBRL CAPITAL ALLOCATION
Insider & Capital Conviction
[LOCKED] FLAGGED
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04 FRED 90D r-MATRIX
Macro Regime Fit
[LOCKED] FLAGGED
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05 10-K REDLINE AUDIT
Forensic 10-K Risk
16 / 20
STRONG
20 BASE - 4 DEDUCT • 0 CRIT / 0 MED • STABLE
ALERT

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ITW // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +10.69%▼ DESCENDING CHANNEL
2026-11-02O $276.1H $281.4L $276.1C $278.6VOL 1.06M
RES: $285.3SUP: $252.6SMA50: $271.3SMA200: $270.8
$306.1$288.7$271.4$254.0$236.7RES $285.3SUP $252.6$278.62026-05-042026-06-172026-08-042026-09-182026-11-02
ITW // INSTITUTIONAL BULL VS. BEAR FORENSIC DEBATE
NEUTRAL / PAIR TRADE CONVICTION: 55/100
BEAR 0
100 BULL

Illinois Tool Works Inc. (ITW) exhibits 52.9% gross margins and 23.4% return on invested capital within Industrials (Industrial Machinery/Components), balanced against a 18.8x enterprise multiple and 4.8% implied options volatility.

▲ INSTITUTIONAL BULL THESIS (LONG)
01. Operating Leverage & Capital Efficiency Moat

Sustained 52.9% gross profitability converts into 26.3% operating margin and 23.4% ROIC, outpacing sector cost of capital.

ROIC: 23.4% // GM: 52.9%
02. Top-Line Expansion & Cash Conversion

YoY revenue trajectory of +0.9% paired with 3.38% free cash flow yield supports self-funded R&D and capital return.

REV YOY: +0.9% // FCF YLD: 3.38%
03. Balance Sheet Solvency & Forensic Quality

Altman Z-Score of 10.74 and Piotroski F-Score of 6/9 indicate low near-term refinancing stress.

ALTMAN Z: 10.74 // F-SCORE: 6/9
▼ INSTITUTIONAL BEAR THESIS (SHORT / RISK)
01. Multiple Compression & Duration Sensitivity

Trading at 24.3x trailing P/E (22.6x Fwd P/E) leaves valuation vulnerable if real 10Y TIPS yields spike.

P/E: 24.3x // EV/EBITDA: 18.8x
02. Options Skew & Event Volatility Risk

Options market prices a ±5.2% implied move with a 0.85 put/call ratio around $278.55 max pain.

IMPL MOVE: ±5.2% // P/C: 0.85
03. Competitive Margin & CapEx Cycle Pressure

Elevated industry capital intensity and customer concentration in Industrial Machinery/Components require continuous execution to defend 20.5% net margins.

NET MARGIN: 20.5% // D/E: 0.80x
KEY CATALYST // Upcoming 10-Q/10-K XBRL margin progression, guidance revision vs 22.6x forward consensus, and institutional 13F positioning.
MACRO REGIME // Monitor US 10Y Real Yields (DFII10) and High-Yield Credit Spreads (OAS) for beta-adjusted multiple impact (Beta 0.92).
FORM 4 & 13F FLOW OPEN OWN <GO>
FILER SIDE $ VALUE
INSPECT FULL OWNERSHIP LEDGER IN OWN <GO>
UNUSUAL OPTIONS TAPE OPEN OPT <GO>
STRIKE / EXP TYPE PREMIUM
INSPECT GEX & CHAIN IN OPT <GO>
KEY VALUATION & PROFITABILITY RATIOS XBRL FA <GO>
TRAILING P/E 24.3x
FORWARD P/E 22.6x
EV / EBITDA 18.8x
FCF YIELD 3.38%
GROSS MARGIN 52.9%
OPERATING MARGIN 26.3%
NET MARGIN 20.5%
ROIC % 23.4%
REV GROWTH YOY +0.9%
DILUTED EPS TTM $11.57
DEBT / EQUITY 0.80x
DIVIDEND YIELD 2.23%
RSI-14 MOMENTUM 62.2
5Y EQUITY BETA 0.92
FRED MACRO SENSITIVITY (PEARSON r) ECST <GO>
MACRO CORRELATION CALIBRATION ACTIVE BELOW.
FRED MACRO REGIME STRESS-TEST SIMULATOR // ITWPEARSON R VARIANCE ENGINE
01 // SELECT FEDERAL RESERVE & CREDIT SHOCK SCENARIO
02 // POSITION NOTIONAL EXPOSURE
HEADLINE STRESS SCORE
75/100SEVERE DRAWDOWN PRESSURE
PRIMARY FACTOR EXPOSURE
DFII10 // -0.61 r
Latest: 2.08%
EST. DIRECTIONAL MOVE
-8.50%
Implied Px: $254.88
EST. DOLLAR VARIANCE
-$4,248
On $50,000 Notional
[LOCKED // MULTI-FACTOR DRAWDOWN HEDGE & MACRO TRIGGER ALERT]

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HEAD-TO-HEAD PEER COMPARISONS COMP <GO>