FRVO // Fervo Energy Company

DES <GO> NASDAQ RQD COCKPIT → CIK 0001853868 ↗

Utilities • Electric Utilities: Central

$8.28 ▼ -0.71 (-7.95%)

MKT CAP: $2.65B • VOL: 7.23M

52W L $8 52W H $43

ALTMAN Z

4.72 SAFE

PIOTROSKI

8 / 9

FRVO // ROARABLE RATING & 5-PILLAR RQD CONFIDENCE 02:00 EST DETERMINISTIC ENGINE

PRIOR: RQD 60/100 [C-] (+0 PT) • UNCHANGED AS OF 2026-11-02

ROARABLE C-

RQD CONFIDENCE

60 / 100 +0D

5 X 20-PT QUANT PILLARS

E 0 D 35 C 59 B 70 A 86+

Roarable Hold — Cautious Neutral

01 MASSIVE / SEC XBRL

Forensic Fundamentals

14 / 20

SOLID

FCF +0% vs NI +0% • ROIC-WACC +31.8% • Z 4.72

02 INSTITUTIONAL TAPE & TREND

Whale & Options Flow

[LOCKED] FLAGGED

UNLOCK BELOW TO REVEAL

03 SEC XBRL CAPITAL ALLOCATION

Insider & Capital Conviction

[LOCKED] FLAGGED

UNLOCK BELOW TO REVEAL

04 FRED 90D r-MATRIX

Macro Regime Fit

8 / 20

WARNING

HEADWIND • r(10Y)=-0.10 (+23bp) • r(OAS)=-0.19

05 10-K REDLINE AUDIT

Forensic 10-K Risk

18 / 20

STRONG

20 BASE - 2 DEDUCT • 0 CRIT / 0 MED • STABLE

ALERT

Why did FRVO's Whale & Options Flow & Insider & Capital Conviction sub-score just flash a warning? Enter your email to unlock the full 5-Pillar Rating Breakdown + get instant alerts whenever FRVO is Upgraded or Downgraded.

SIG <GO> CROSS-FEED TRIANGULATION // PROPRIETARY ANOMALY ENGINE (1 ACTIVE ON FRVO)

STAGE 2 DETERMINISTIC Z-SCORE + STAGE 3 GEEK DESK BRIEF ALL MARKET ANOMALIES <SIG>

▲ BULLISH // MACRO TAILWIND SCORE (96/100)SIFTER 05 // TRUE NET LIQUIDITY BETA

SEVERITY: 94/100 Z-SCORE: +6.10σ

FRVO Exhibits 6.00x True Net Liquidity Elasticity as Fed-TGA-RRP Prints $5,746B

TRUE NET LIQUIDITY

$5,746B (-0.64% 4W)

NET LIQUIDITY ELASTICITY

6.00x BETA (r=-0.23)

MACRO TAILWIND SCORE

96 / 100

[GEEK DESK FORENSIC NOTE // FRED WALCL - TGA - RRP × 5Y BETA]

FRED Fed Assets (WALCL)US Treasury TGA (WTREGEN) + ON RRPICE BofA High-Yield OAS + 5Y Equity Beta

Wall Street's True Net Liquidity Index (WALCL minus Treasury General Account WTREGEN minus Overnight RRP) stands at $5,745.73B (-0.64% 4-week RoC; High-Yield OAS +2 bps). Rolling 5-year regression assigns Fervo Energy Company (FRVO) a 6.00x Net Liquidity beta (r = -0.23), placing it in the top decile of liquidity-sensitive equities. Current plumbing translates to a deterministic Macro Tailwind Score of 96/100.

FRVO // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -77.34%🛡️ HOLDING TREND SUPPORT

2026-11-02O $8.33H $8.99L $8.28C $8.28VOL 9.37M

RES: $11.40SUP: $6.66SMA50: $13.57SMA200: $22.69

FRVO // INSTITUTIONAL BULL VS. BEAR FORENSIC DEBATE

ACCUMULATE CONVICTION: 68/100

BEAR 0

100 BULL

Fervo Energy Company (FRVO) exhibits 45.0% gross margins and 38.5% return on invested capital within Utilities (Electric Utilities: Central), balanced against a 17.9x enterprise multiple and 4.8% implied options volatility.

▲ INSTITUTIONAL BULL THESIS (LONG)

01. Operating Leverage & Capital Efficiency Moat

Sustained 45.0% gross profitability converts into 13.9% operating margin and 38.5% ROIC, outpacing sector cost of capital.

ROIC: 38.5% // GM: 45.0%

02. Top-Line Expansion & Cash Conversion

YoY revenue trajectory of +4.4% paired with 2.21% free cash flow yield supports self-funded R&D and capital return.

REV YOY: +4.4% // FCF YLD: 2.21%

03. Balance Sheet Solvency & Forensic Quality

Altman Z-Score of 4.72 and Piotroski F-Score of 8/9 indicate low near-term refinancing stress.

ALTMAN Z: 4.72 // F-SCORE: 8/9

▼ INSTITUTIONAL BEAR THESIS (SHORT / RISK)

01. Multiple Compression & Duration Sensitivity

Trading at 32.8x trailing P/E (30.5x Fwd P/E) leaves valuation vulnerable if real 10Y TIPS yields spike.

P/E: 32.8x // EV/EBITDA: 17.9x

02. Options Skew & Event Volatility Risk

Options market prices a ±5.2% implied move with a 0.85 put/call ratio around $8.28 max pain.

IMPL MOVE: ±5.2% // P/C: 0.85

03. Competitive Margin & CapEx Cycle Pressure

Elevated industry capital intensity and customer concentration in Electric Utilities: Central require continuous execution to defend 10.9% net margins.

NET MARGIN: 10.9% // D/E: 0.85x

KEY CATALYST // Upcoming 10-Q/10-K XBRL margin progression, guidance revision vs 30.5x forward consensus, and institutional 13F positioning.

MACRO REGIME // Monitor US 10Y Real Yields (DFII10) and High-Yield Credit Spreads (OAS) for beta-adjusted multiple impact (Beta 0.63).

FORM 4 & 13F FLOW OPEN OWN <GO>

FILER	SIDE	$ VALUE
INSPECT FULL OWNERSHIP LEDGER IN OWN <GO>

UNUSUAL OPTIONS TAPE OPEN OPT <GO>

STRIKE / EXP	TYPE	PREMIUM
INSPECT GEX & CHAIN IN OPT <GO>

KEY VALUATION & PROFITABILITY RATIOS XBRL FA <GO>

TRAILING P/E 32.8x

FORWARD P/E 30.5x

EV / EBITDA 17.9x

FCF YIELD 2.21%

GROSS MARGIN —

OPERATING MARGIN 13.9%

NET MARGIN 10.9%

ROIC % 38.5%

REV GROWTH YOY +4.4%

DILUTED EPS TTM $0.27

DEBT / EQUITY 0.85x

DIVIDEND YIELD 3.40%

RSI-14 MOMENTUM 36.4

5Y EQUITY BETA 0.63

FRED MACRO SENSITIVITY (PEARSON r) ECST <GO>

MACRO CORRELATION CALIBRATION ACTIVE BELOW.

FRED MACRO REGIME STRESS-TEST SIMULATOR // FRVOPEARSON R VARIANCE ENGINE

01 // SELECT FEDERAL RESERVE & CREDIT SHOCK SCENARIO

02 // POSITION NOTIONAL EXPOSURE

HEADLINE STRESS SCORE

75/100SEVERE DRAWDOWN PRESSURE

PRIMARY FACTOR EXPOSURE

DFII10 // -0.61 r

Latest: 2.08%

EST. DIRECTIONAL MOVE

-8.50%

Implied Px: $7.58

EST. DOLLAR VARIANCE

-$4,248

On $50,000 Notional

[LOCKED // MULTI-FACTOR DRAWDOWN HEDGE & MACRO TRIGGER ALERT]

Unblur the exact $50,000 delta-adjusted ETF/options hedge ratio for FRVO & activate live FRED threshold breach alerts.

HEAD-TO-HEAD PEER COMPARISONS COMP <GO>

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