ROARABLE // PRO
GLOBAL DESKS // NYC --:--:-- NYSE
US TAPE
ROAR ▸

CVLG // Covenant Logistics Group Inc. (Class A)

DES <GO> NYSE RQD COCKPIT → CIK 0000928658 ↗
Industrials • Trucking Freight/Courier Services
$30.92 ▲ +2.10 (+7.29%)
MKT CAP: $784.7M • VOL: 353.8K
CVLG // ROARABLE RATING & 5-PILLAR RQD CONFIDENCE 02:00 EST DETERMINISTIC ENGINE
▲ UPGRADE // E (RQD 34) -> D- (RQD 36)
ROARABLE D-
RQD CONFIDENCE
36 / 100 +2D
5 X 20-PT QUANT PILLARS
E 0 D 35 C 59 B 70 A 86+
Roarable Sell — Vulnerable Balance Sheet & Flow
01 MASSIVE / SEC XBRL
Forensic Fundamentals
9 / 20
WARNING
FCF -12.8% vs NI -79.8% • ROIC-WACC -7.9% • Z 3.2
02 INSTITUTIONAL TAPE & TREND
Whale & Options Flow
6 / 20
CRITICAL
52W RANGE 41% • VS 200D -9.2% • RSI 49.6
03 SEC XBRL CAPITAL ALLOCATION
Insider & Capital Conviction
[LOCKED] FLAGGED
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04 FRED 90D r-MATRIX
Macro Regime Fit
5 / 20
CRITICAL
HEADWIND • r(10Y)=-0.05 (+19bp) • r(OAS)=-0.34
05 10-K REDLINE AUDIT
Forensic 10-K Risk
[LOCKED] FLAGGED
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ALERT

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CVLG // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -2.09%📐 HORIZONTAL RANGE
2026-11-03O $28.82H $30.92L $28.82C $30.92VOL 353.8K
RES: $58.17SUP: $27.38SMA50: $32.72SMA200: $34.06
$51.65$44.31$36.98$29.64$22.30RES $58.17SUP $27.38$30.922026-05-042026-06-172026-08-042026-09-182026-11-03
CVLG // INSTITUTIONAL BULL VS. BEAR FORENSIC DEBATE
UNDERWEIGHT CONVICTION: 28/100
BEAR 0
100 BULL

Covenant Logistics Group Inc. (Class A) (CVLG) exhibits 45.0% gross margins and 0.4% return on invested capital within Industrials (Trucking Freight/Courier Services), balanced against a 7.5x enterprise multiple and 4.8% implied options volatility.

▲ INSTITUTIONAL BULL THESIS (LONG)
01. Operating Leverage & Capital Efficiency Moat

Sustained 45.0% gross profitability converts into — operating margin and 0.4% ROIC, outpacing sector cost of capital.

ROIC: 0.4% // GM: 45.0%
02. Top-Line Expansion & Cash Conversion

YoY revenue trajectory of — paired with -4.64% free cash flow yield supports self-funded R&D and capital return.

REV YOY: — // FCF YLD: -4.64%
03. Balance Sheet Solvency & Forensic Quality

Altman Z-Score of 3.80 and Piotroski F-Score of 5/9 indicate low near-term refinancing stress.

ALTMAN Z: 3.80 // F-SCORE: 5/9
▼ INSTITUTIONAL BEAR THESIS (SHORT / RISK)
01. Multiple Compression & Duration Sensitivity

Trading at 101.0x trailing P/E (93.9x Fwd P/E) leaves valuation vulnerable if real 10Y TIPS yields spike.

P/E: 101.0x // EV/EBITDA: 7.5x
02. Options Skew & Event Volatility Risk

Options market prices a ±5.2% implied move with a 0.85 put/call ratio around $30.92 max pain.

IMPL MOVE: ±5.2% // P/C: 0.85
03. Competitive Margin & CapEx Cycle Pressure

Elevated industry capital intensity and customer concentration in Trucking Freight/Courier Services require continuous execution to defend — net margins.

NET MARGIN: — // D/E: 0.58x
KEY CATALYST // Upcoming 10-Q/10-K XBRL margin progression, guidance revision vs 93.9x forward consensus, and institutional 13F positioning.
MACRO REGIME // Monitor US 10Y Real Yields (DFII10) and High-Yield Credit Spreads (OAS) for beta-adjusted multiple impact (Beta 1.10).
FORM 4 & 13F FLOW OPEN OWN <GO>
FILER SIDE $ VALUE
INSPECT FULL OWNERSHIP LEDGER IN OWN <GO>
UNUSUAL OPTIONS TAPE OPEN OPT <GO>
STRIKE / EXP TYPE PREMIUM
INSPECT GEX & CHAIN IN OPT <GO>
KEY VALUATION & PROFITABILITY RATIOS XBRL FA <GO>
TRAILING P/E 101.0x
FORWARD P/E 93.9x
EV / EBITDA 7.5x
FCF YIELD -4.64%
GROSS MARGIN —
OPERATING MARGIN —
NET MARGIN —
ROIC % 0.4%
REV GROWTH YOY —
DILUTED EPS TTM $0.29
DEBT / EQUITY 0.58x
DIVIDEND YIELD 0.98%
RSI-14 MOMENTUM 49.6
5Y EQUITY BETA —
FRED MACRO SENSITIVITY (PEARSON r) ECST <GO>
MACRO CORRELATION CALIBRATION ACTIVE BELOW.
FRED MACRO REGIME STRESS-TEST SIMULATOR // CVLGPEARSON R VARIANCE ENGINE
01 // SELECT FEDERAL RESERVE & CREDIT SHOCK SCENARIO
02 // POSITION NOTIONAL EXPOSURE
HEADLINE STRESS SCORE
75/100SEVERE DRAWDOWN PRESSURE
PRIMARY FACTOR EXPOSURE
DFII10 // -0.61 r
Latest: 2.08%
EST. DIRECTIONAL MOVE
-8.50%
Implied Px: $28.29
EST. DOLLAR VARIANCE
-$4,248
On $50,000 Notional
[LOCKED // MULTI-FACTOR DRAWDOWN HEDGE & MACRO TRIGGER ALERT]

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HEAD-TO-HEAD PEER COMPARISONS COMP <GO>