ROARABLE // PRO
GLOBAL DESKS // NYC --:--:-- NYSE
US TAPE
ROAR ▸

CMG // Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc.

DES <GO> NYSE RQD COCKPIT → CIK 0001058090 ↗
Consumer Discretionary • Restaurants
$31.89 ▲ +0.61 (+1.95%)
MKT CAP: $40.34B • VOL: 24.39M
CMG // ROARABLE RATING & 5-PILLAR RQD CONFIDENCE 02:00 EST DETERMINISTIC ENGINE
▲ UPGRADE // C+ (RQD 69) -> B- (RQD 71)
ROARABLE B-
RQD CONFIDENCE
71 / 100 +2D
5 X 20-PT QUANT PILLARS
E 0 D 35 C 59 B 70 A 86+
Roarable Buy — Sound Institutional Accumulation
01 MASSIVE / SEC XBRL
Forensic Fundamentals
18 / 20
STRONG
FCF -4.2% vs NI +0.1% • ROIC-WACC +22.7% • Z 6.02
02 INSTITUTIONAL TAPE & TREND
Whale & Options Flow
[LOCKED] FLAGGED
UNLOCK BELOW TO REVEAL
03 SEC XBRL CAPITAL ALLOCATION
Insider & Capital Conviction
16 / 20
STRONG
FCF YIELD +3.7% • P/E 24x • F-SCORE 9/9
04 FRED 90D r-MATRIX
Macro Regime Fit
[LOCKED] FLAGGED
UNLOCK BELOW TO REVEAL
05 10-K REDLINE AUDIT
Forensic 10-K Risk
18 / 20
STRONG
20 BASE - 2 DEDUCT • 0 CRIT / 0 MED • STABLE
ALERT

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CMG // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -0.28%📐 HORIZONTAL RANGE
2026-11-03O $31.28H $31.89L $31.28C $31.89VOL 24.39M
RES: $38.63SUP: $26.64SMA50: $32.71SMA200: $33.93
$39.91$36.50$33.08$29.67$26.25RES $38.63SUP $26.64$31.892026-05-042026-06-182026-08-052026-09-212026-11-03
CMG // INSTITUTIONAL BULL VS. BEAR FORENSIC DEBATE
ACCUMULATE CONVICTION: 62/100
BEAR 0
100 BULL

Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc. (CMG) exhibits 45.0% gross margins and 30.2% return on invested capital within Consumer Discretionary (Restaurants), balanced against a 16.7x enterprise multiple and 4.8% implied options volatility.

▲ INSTITUTIONAL BULL THESIS (LONG)
01. Operating Leverage & Capital Efficiency Moat

Sustained 45.0% gross profitability converts into 16.2% operating margin and 30.2% ROIC, outpacing sector cost of capital.

ROIC: 30.2% // GM: 45.0%
02. Top-Line Expansion & Cash Conversion

YoY revenue trajectory of +5.4% paired with 3.66% free cash flow yield supports self-funded R&D and capital return.

REV YOY: +5.4% // FCF YLD: 3.66%
03. Balance Sheet Solvency & Forensic Quality

Altman Z-Score of 6.02 and Piotroski F-Score of 9/9 indicate low near-term refinancing stress.

ALTMAN Z: 6.02 // F-SCORE: 9/9
▼ INSTITUTIONAL BEAR THESIS (SHORT / RISK)
01. Multiple Compression & Duration Sensitivity

Trading at 25.8x trailing P/E (24.0x Fwd P/E) leaves valuation vulnerable if real 10Y TIPS yields spike.

P/E: 25.8x // EV/EBITDA: 16.7x
02. Options Skew & Event Volatility Risk

Options market prices a ±5.2% implied move with a 0.85 put/call ratio around $31.89 max pain.

IMPL MOVE: ±5.2% // P/C: 0.85
03. Competitive Margin & CapEx Cycle Pressure

Elevated industry capital intensity and customer concentration in Restaurants require continuous execution to defend 12.9% net margins.

NET MARGIN: 12.9% // D/E: 0.91x
KEY CATALYST // Upcoming 10-Q/10-K XBRL margin progression, guidance revision vs 24.0x forward consensus, and institutional 13F positioning.
MACRO REGIME // Monitor US 10Y Real Yields (DFII10) and High-Yield Credit Spreads (OAS) for beta-adjusted multiple impact (Beta 0.99).
FORM 4 & 13F FLOW OPEN OWN <GO>
FILER SIDE $ VALUE
INSPECT FULL OWNERSHIP LEDGER IN OWN <GO>
UNUSUAL OPTIONS TAPE OPEN OPT <GO>
STRIKE / EXP TYPE PREMIUM
INSPECT GEX & CHAIN IN OPT <GO>
KEY VALUATION & PROFITABILITY RATIOS XBRL FA <GO>
TRAILING P/E 25.8x
FORWARD P/E 24.0x
EV / EBITDA 16.7x
FCF YIELD 3.66%
GROSS MARGIN —
OPERATING MARGIN 16.2%
NET MARGIN 12.9%
ROIC % 30.2%
REV GROWTH YOY +5.4%
DILUTED EPS TTM $1.21
DEBT / EQUITY 0.91x
DIVIDEND YIELD 0.00%
RSI-14 MOMENTUM 56.2
5Y EQUITY BETA 0.99
FRED MACRO SENSITIVITY (PEARSON r) ECST <GO>
MACRO CORRELATION CALIBRATION ACTIVE BELOW.
FRED MACRO REGIME STRESS-TEST SIMULATOR // CMGPEARSON R VARIANCE ENGINE
01 // SELECT FEDERAL RESERVE & CREDIT SHOCK SCENARIO
02 // POSITION NOTIONAL EXPOSURE
HEADLINE STRESS SCORE
75/100SEVERE DRAWDOWN PRESSURE
PRIMARY FACTOR EXPOSURE
DFII10 // -0.61 r
Latest: 2.08%
EST. DIRECTIONAL MOVE
-8.50%
Implied Px: $29.18
EST. DOLLAR VARIANCE
-$4,248
On $50,000 Notional
[LOCKED // MULTI-FACTOR DRAWDOWN HEDGE & MACRO TRIGGER ALERT]

Unblur the exact $50,000 delta-adjusted ETF/options hedge ratio for CMG & activate live FRED threshold breach alerts.

HEAD-TO-HEAD PEER COMPARISONS COMP <GO>