ROARABLE // PRO
GLOBAL DESKS // NYC --:--:-- NYSE
US TAPE
ROAR ▸

CHD // Church & Dwight Company Inc.

DES <GO> NYSE RQD COCKPIT → CIK 0000313927 ↗
Consumer Discretionary • Package Goods/Cosmetics
$107.23 ▲ +1.23 (+1.16%)
MKT CAP: $25.14B • VOL: 3.66M
CHD // ROARABLE RATING & 5-PILLAR RQD CONFIDENCE 02:00 EST DETERMINISTIC ENGINE
PRIOR: RQD 79/100 [B+] (+0 PT) • UNCHANGED
ROARABLE B+
RQD CONFIDENCE
79 / 100 +0D
5 X 20-PT QUANT PILLARS
E 0 D 35 C 59 B 70 A 86+
Roarable Buy — Very Good Cash & Smart-Money Inflow
01 MASSIVE / SEC XBRL
Forensic Fundamentals
15 / 20
SOLID
FCF +11.9% vs NI +25.9% • ROIC-WACC +6.2% • Z 5.24
02 INSTITUTIONAL TAPE & TREND
Whale & Options Flow
17 / 20
STRONG
52W RANGE 82% • VS 200D +8.3% • RSI 62
03 SEC XBRL CAPITAL ALLOCATION
Insider & Capital Conviction
15 / 20
SOLID
FCF YIELD +4.4% • P/E 31.7x • F-SCORE 8/9
04 FRED 90D r-MATRIX
Macro Regime Fit
[LOCKED] OUTLIER
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05 10-K REDLINE AUDIT
Forensic 10-K Risk
[LOCKED] OUTLIER
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SIGNAL

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CHD // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +15.44%📐 HORIZONTAL RANGE
2026-11-02O $104.8H $107.2L $104.8C $107.2VOL 2.51M
RES: $111.4SUP: $93.54SMA50: $99.52SMA200: $97.88
$112.7$106.6$100.4$94.29$88.14RES $111.4SUP $93.54$107.22026-05-042026-06-172026-08-042026-09-182026-11-02
CHD // INSTITUTIONAL BULL VS. BEAR FORENSIC DEBATE
NEUTRAL / PAIR TRADE CONVICTION: 50/100
BEAR 0
100 BULL

Church & Dwight Company Inc. (CHD) exhibits 44.7% gross margins and 14.7% return on invested capital within Consumer Discretionary (Package Goods/Cosmetics), balanced against a 22.8x enterprise multiple and 4.8% implied options volatility.

▲ INSTITUTIONAL BULL THESIS (LONG)
01. Operating Leverage & Capital Efficiency Moat

Sustained 44.7% gross profitability converts into 17.4% operating margin and 14.7% ROIC, outpacing sector cost of capital.

ROIC: 14.7% // GM: 44.7%
02. Top-Line Expansion & Cash Conversion

YoY revenue trajectory of +1.6% paired with 4.35% free cash flow yield supports self-funded R&D and capital return.

REV YOY: +1.6% // FCF YLD: 4.35%
03. Balance Sheet Solvency & Forensic Quality

Altman Z-Score of 5.24 and Piotroski F-Score of 8/9 indicate low near-term refinancing stress.

ALTMAN Z: 5.24 // F-SCORE: 8/9
▼ INSTITUTIONAL BEAR THESIS (SHORT / RISK)
01. Multiple Compression & Duration Sensitivity

Trading at 34.1x trailing P/E (31.7x Fwd P/E) leaves valuation vulnerable if real 10Y TIPS yields spike.

P/E: 34.1x // EV/EBITDA: 22.8x
02. Options Skew & Event Volatility Risk

Options market prices a ±5.2% implied move with a 0.85 put/call ratio around $107.23 max pain.

IMPL MOVE: ±5.2% // P/C: 0.85
03. Competitive Margin & CapEx Cycle Pressure

Elevated industry capital intensity and customer concentration in Package Goods/Cosmetics require continuous execution to defend 11.9% net margins.

NET MARGIN: 11.9% // D/E: 0.55x
KEY CATALYST // Upcoming 10-Q/10-K XBRL margin progression, guidance revision vs 31.7x forward consensus, and institutional 13F positioning.
MACRO REGIME // Monitor US 10Y Real Yields (DFII10) and High-Yield Credit Spreads (OAS) for beta-adjusted multiple impact (Beta 1.09).
FORM 4 & 13F FLOW OPEN OWN <GO>
FILER SIDE $ VALUE
INSPECT FULL OWNERSHIP LEDGER IN OWN <GO>
UNUSUAL OPTIONS TAPE OPEN OPT <GO>
STRIKE / EXP TYPE PREMIUM
INSPECT GEX & CHAIN IN OPT <GO>
KEY VALUATION & PROFITABILITY RATIOS XBRL FA <GO>
TRAILING P/E 34.1x
FORWARD P/E 31.7x
EV / EBITDA 22.8x
FCF YIELD 4.35%
GROSS MARGIN 44.7%
OPERATING MARGIN 17.4%
NET MARGIN 11.9%
ROIC % 14.7%
REV GROWTH YOY +1.6%
DILUTED EPS TTM $3.11
DEBT / EQUITY 0.55x
DIVIDEND YIELD 1.14%
RSI-14 MOMENTUM 62.0
5Y EQUITY BETA 1.09
FRED MACRO SENSITIVITY (PEARSON r) ECST <GO>
MACRO CORRELATION CALIBRATION ACTIVE BELOW.
FRED MACRO REGIME STRESS-TEST SIMULATOR // CHDPEARSON R VARIANCE ENGINE
01 // SELECT FEDERAL RESERVE & CREDIT SHOCK SCENARIO
02 // POSITION NOTIONAL EXPOSURE
HEADLINE STRESS SCORE
75/100SEVERE DRAWDOWN PRESSURE
PRIMARY FACTOR EXPOSURE
DFII10 // -0.61 r
Latest: 2.08%
EST. DIRECTIONAL MOVE
-8.50%
Implied Px: $98.12
EST. DOLLAR VARIANCE
-$4,248
On $50,000 Notional
[LOCKED // MULTI-FACTOR DRAWDOWN HEDGE & MACRO TRIGGER ALERT]

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HEAD-TO-HEAD PEER COMPARISONS COMP <GO>