ROARABLE // PRO
GLOBAL DESKS // NYC --:--:-- NYSE
US TAPE
ROAR ▸

CAKE // Cheesecake Factory Incorporated

DES <GO> NASDAQ RQD COCKPIT → CIK 0000887596 ↗
Consumer Discretionary • Restaurants
$112.64 ▼ -0.48 (-0.42%)
MKT CAP: $5.63B • VOL: 1.63M
CAKE // ROARABLE RATING & 5-PILLAR RQD CONFIDENCE 02:00 EST DETERMINISTIC ENGINE
PRIOR: RQD 72/100 [B] (+0 PT) • UNCHANGED
ROARABLE B
RQD CONFIDENCE
72 / 100 +0D
5 X 20-PT QUANT PILLARS
E 0 D 35 C 59 B 70 A 86+
Roarable Buy — Good Risk/Reward
01 MASSIVE / SEC XBRL
Forensic Fundamentals
17 / 20
STRONG
FCF +43.6% vs NI -5.7% • ROIC-WACC +11.9% • Z 3.02
02 INSTITUTIONAL TAPE & TREND
Whale & Options Flow
18 / 20
STRONG
52W RANGE 93% • VS 200D +41% • RSI 55.9
03 SEC XBRL CAPITAL ALLOCATION
Insider & Capital Conviction
[LOCKED] FLAGGED
UNLOCK BELOW TO REVEAL
04 FRED 90D r-MATRIX
Macro Regime Fit
[LOCKED] FLAGGED
UNLOCK BELOW TO REVEAL
05 10-K REDLINE AUDIT
Forensic 10-K Risk
14 / 20
SOLID
20 BASE - 6 DEDUCT • 0 CRIT / 0 MED • STABLE
ALERT

Why did CAKE's Macro Regime Fit & Insider & Capital Conviction sub-score just flash a warning? Enter your email to unlock the full 5-Pillar Rating Breakdown + get instant alerts whenever CAKE is Upgraded or Downgraded.

CAKE // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +89.98%▲ ASCENDING CHANNEL
2026-11-02O $105.7H $113.1L $105.7C $112.6VOL 2.47M
RES: $119.6SUP: $98.99SMA50: $108.0SMA200: $80.21
$123.0$104.8$86.60$68.39$50.18RES $119.6SUP $98.99$112.62026-05-042026-06-172026-08-042026-09-182026-11-02
CAKE // INSTITUTIONAL BULL VS. BEAR FORENSIC DEBATE
NEUTRAL / PAIR TRADE CONVICTION: 53/100
BEAR 0
100 BULL

Cheesecake Factory Incorporated (CAKE) exhibits 45.0% gross margins and 18.9% return on invested capital within Consumer Discretionary (Restaurants), balanced against a 19.2x enterprise multiple and 4.8% implied options volatility.

▲ INSTITUTIONAL BULL THESIS (LONG)
01. Operating Leverage & Capital Efficiency Moat

Sustained 45.0% gross profitability converts into 5.0% operating margin and 18.9% ROIC, outpacing sector cost of capital.

ROIC: 18.9% // GM: 45.0%
02. Top-Line Expansion & Cash Conversion

YoY revenue trajectory of +4.7% paired with 2.76% free cash flow yield supports self-funded R&D and capital return.

REV YOY: +4.7% // FCF YLD: 2.76%
03. Balance Sheet Solvency & Forensic Quality

Altman Z-Score of 3.02 and Piotroski F-Score of 6/9 indicate low near-term refinancing stress.

ALTMAN Z: 3.02 // F-SCORE: 6/9
▼ INSTITUTIONAL BEAR THESIS (SHORT / RISK)
01. Multiple Compression & Duration Sensitivity

Trading at 38.0x trailing P/E (35.3x Fwd P/E) leaves valuation vulnerable if real 10Y TIPS yields spike.

P/E: 38.0x // EV/EBITDA: 19.2x
02. Options Skew & Event Volatility Risk

Options market prices a ±5.2% implied move with a 0.85 put/call ratio around $112.64 max pain.

IMPL MOVE: ±5.2% // P/C: 0.85
03. Competitive Margin & CapEx Cycle Pressure

Elevated industry capital intensity and customer concentration in Restaurants require continuous execution to defend 3.9% net margins.

NET MARGIN: 3.9% // D/E: 1.29x
KEY CATALYST // Upcoming 10-Q/10-K XBRL margin progression, guidance revision vs 35.3x forward consensus, and institutional 13F positioning.
MACRO REGIME // Monitor US 10Y Real Yields (DFII10) and High-Yield Credit Spreads (OAS) for beta-adjusted multiple impact (Beta 0.90).
FORM 4 & 13F FLOW OPEN OWN <GO>
FILER SIDE $ VALUE
INSPECT FULL OWNERSHIP LEDGER IN OWN <GO>
UNUSUAL OPTIONS TAPE OPEN OPT <GO>
STRIKE / EXP TYPE PREMIUM
INSPECT GEX & CHAIN IN OPT <GO>
KEY VALUATION & PROFITABILITY RATIOS XBRL FA <GO>
TRAILING P/E 38.0x
FORWARD P/E 35.3x
EV / EBITDA 19.2x
FCF YIELD 2.76%
GROSS MARGIN —
OPERATING MARGIN 5.0%
NET MARGIN 3.9%
ROIC % 18.9%
REV GROWTH YOY +4.7%
DILUTED EPS TTM $2.97
DEBT / EQUITY 1.29x
DIVIDEND YIELD 0.93%
RSI-14 MOMENTUM 55.9
5Y EQUITY BETA 0.90
FRED MACRO SENSITIVITY (PEARSON r) ECST <GO>
MACRO CORRELATION CALIBRATION ACTIVE BELOW.
FRED MACRO REGIME STRESS-TEST SIMULATOR // CAKEPEARSON R VARIANCE ENGINE
01 // SELECT FEDERAL RESERVE & CREDIT SHOCK SCENARIO
02 // POSITION NOTIONAL EXPOSURE
HEADLINE STRESS SCORE
75/100SEVERE DRAWDOWN PRESSURE
PRIMARY FACTOR EXPOSURE
DFII10 // -0.61 r
Latest: 2.08%
EST. DIRECTIONAL MOVE
-8.50%
Implied Px: $103.07
EST. DOLLAR VARIANCE
-$4,248
On $50,000 Notional
[LOCKED // MULTI-FACTOR DRAWDOWN HEDGE & MACRO TRIGGER ALERT]

Unblur the exact $50,000 delta-adjusted ETF/options hedge ratio for CAKE & activate live FRED threshold breach alerts.

HEAD-TO-HEAD PEER COMPARISONS COMP <GO>