ROARABLE // PRO
GLOBAL DESKS // NYC --:--:-- NYSE
US TAPE
ROAR ▸

BABA // Alibaba Group Holding Limited American

DES <GO> NYSE RQD COCKPIT → CIK 0001577552 ↗
Consumer Discretionary • Business Services
$98.04 ▼ -1.50 (-1.51%)
MKT CAP: $241.13B • VOL: 8.39M
BABA // ROARABLE RATING & 5-PILLAR RQD CONFIDENCE 02:00 EST DETERMINISTIC ENGINE
PRIOR: RQD 50/100 [D] (+0 PT) • UNCHANGED
ROARABLE D
RQD CONFIDENCE
50 / 100 +0D
5 X 20-PT QUANT PILLARS
E 0 D 35 C 59 B 70 A 86+
Roarable Sell — Underperform / Distribution Warning
01 MASSIVE / SEC XBRL
Forensic Fundamentals
8 / 20
WARNING
FCF -73.3% vs NI -16.2% • ROIC-WACC -0.9% • Z 4.33
02 INSTITUTIONAL TAPE & TREND
Whale & Options Flow
[LOCKED] FLAGGED
UNLOCK BELOW TO REVEAL
03 SEC XBRL CAPITAL ALLOCATION
Insider & Capital Conviction
[LOCKED] FLAGGED
UNLOCK BELOW TO REVEAL
04 FRED 90D r-MATRIX
Macro Regime Fit
6 / 20
CRITICAL
HEADWIND • r(10Y)=-0.01 (+23bp) • r(OAS)=-0.27
05 10-K REDLINE AUDIT
Forensic 10-K Risk
16 / 20
STRONG
20 BASE - 4 DEDUCT • 0 CRIT / 0 MED • STABLE
ALERT

Why did BABA's Whale & Options Flow & Insider & Capital Conviction sub-score just flash a warning? Enter your email to unlock the full 5-Pillar Rating Breakdown + get instant alerts whenever BABA is Upgraded or Downgraded.

BABA // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -26.44%🛡️ HOLDING TREND SUPPORT
2026-11-02O $101.0H $101.0L $98.04C $98.04VOL 7.83M
RES: $118.3SUP: $97.60SMA50: $108.9SMA200: $125.6
$153.8$137.0$120.3$103.5$86.79RES $118.3SUP $97.60$98.042026-05-042026-06-172026-08-042026-09-182026-11-02
BABA // INSTITUTIONAL BULL VS. BEAR FORENSIC DEBATE
NEUTRAL / PAIR TRADE CONVICTION: 48/100
BEAR 0
100 BULL

Alibaba Group Holding Limited American (BABA) exhibits 39.8% gross margins and 7.6% return on invested capital within Consumer Discretionary (Business Services), balanced against a 19.4x enterprise multiple and 4.8% implied options volatility.

▲ INSTITUTIONAL BULL THESIS (LONG)
01. Operating Leverage & Capital Efficiency Moat

Sustained 39.8% gross profitability converts into 4.9% operating margin and 7.6% ROIC, outpacing sector cost of capital.

ROIC: 7.6% // GM: 39.8%
02. Top-Line Expansion & Cash Conversion

YoY revenue trajectory of +8.1% paired with 1.81% free cash flow yield supports self-funded R&D and capital return.

REV YOY: +8.1% // FCF YLD: 1.81%
03. Balance Sheet Solvency & Forensic Quality

Altman Z-Score of 4.33 and Piotroski F-Score of 7/9 indicate low near-term refinancing stress.

ALTMAN Z: 4.33 // F-SCORE: 7/9
▼ INSTITUTIONAL BEAR THESIS (SHORT / RISK)
01. Multiple Compression & Duration Sensitivity

Trading at 16.1x trailing P/E (15.0x Fwd P/E) leaves valuation vulnerable if real 10Y TIPS yields spike.

P/E: 16.1x // EV/EBITDA: 19.4x
02. Options Skew & Event Volatility Risk

Options market prices a ±5.2% implied move with a 0.85 put/call ratio around $98.04 max pain.

IMPL MOVE: ±5.2% // P/C: 0.85
03. Competitive Margin & CapEx Cycle Pressure

Elevated industry capital intensity and customer concentration in Business Services require continuous execution to defend 10.1% net margins.

NET MARGIN: 10.1% // D/E: 0.39x
KEY CATALYST // Upcoming 10-Q/10-K XBRL margin progression, guidance revision vs 15.0x forward consensus, and institutional 13F positioning.
MACRO REGIME // Monitor US 10Y Real Yields (DFII10) and High-Yield Credit Spreads (OAS) for beta-adjusted multiple impact (Beta 0.98).
FORM 4 & 13F FLOW OPEN OWN <GO>
FILER SIDE $ VALUE
INSPECT FULL OWNERSHIP LEDGER IN OWN <GO>
UNUSUAL OPTIONS TAPE OPEN OPT <GO>
STRIKE / EXP TYPE PREMIUM
INSPECT GEX & CHAIN IN OPT <GO>
KEY VALUATION & PROFITABILITY RATIOS XBRL FA <GO>
TRAILING P/E 16.1x
FORWARD P/E 15.0x
EV / EBITDA 19.4x
FCF YIELD 1.81%
GROSS MARGIN 39.8%
OPERATING MARGIN 4.9%
NET MARGIN 10.1%
ROIC % 7.6%
REV GROWTH YOY +8.1%
DILUTED EPS TTM $6.20
DEBT / EQUITY 0.39x
DIVIDEND YIELD 2.03%
RSI-14 MOMENTUM 34.6
5Y EQUITY BETA 0.98
FRED MACRO SENSITIVITY (PEARSON r) ECST <GO>
MACRO CORRELATION CALIBRATION ACTIVE BELOW.
FRED MACRO REGIME STRESS-TEST SIMULATOR // BABAPEARSON R VARIANCE ENGINE
01 // SELECT FEDERAL RESERVE & CREDIT SHOCK SCENARIO
02 // POSITION NOTIONAL EXPOSURE
HEADLINE STRESS SCORE
75/100SEVERE DRAWDOWN PRESSURE
PRIMARY FACTOR EXPOSURE
DFII10 // -0.61 r
Latest: 2.08%
EST. DIRECTIONAL MOVE
-8.50%
Implied Px: $89.71
EST. DOLLAR VARIANCE
-$4,248
On $50,000 Notional
[LOCKED // MULTI-FACTOR DRAWDOWN HEDGE & MACRO TRIGGER ALERT]

Unblur the exact $50,000 delta-adjusted ETF/options hedge ratio for BABA & activate live FRED threshold breach alerts.

HEAD-TO-HEAD PEER COMPARISONS COMP <GO>