ROARABLE // PRO
GLOBAL DESKS // NYC --:--:-- NYSE
US TAPE
ROAR ▸

ASO // Academy Sports and Outdoors Inc.

DES <GO> NASDAQ RQD COCKPIT → CIK 0001817358 ↗
Consumer Discretionary • Other Specialty Stores
$61.84 ▲ +2.64 (+4.46%)
MKT CAP: $3.65B • VOL: 1.42M
ASO // ROARABLE RATING & 5-PILLAR RQD CONFIDENCE 02:00 EST DETERMINISTIC ENGINE
PRIOR: RQD 69/100 [C+] (-1 PT) • UNCHANGED
ROARABLE C+
RQD CONFIDENCE
68 / 100 -1D
5 X 20-PT QUANT PILLARS
E 0 D 35 C 59 B 70 A 86+
Roarable Hold — Upper Neutral / Watch for Breakout
01 MASSIVE / SEC XBRL
Forensic Fundamentals
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02 INSTITUTIONAL TAPE & TREND
Whale & Options Flow
15 / 20
SOLID
52W RANGE 85% • VS 200D +12.1% • RSI 60.1
03 SEC XBRL CAPITAL ALLOCATION
Insider & Capital Conviction
17 / 20
STRONG
FCF YIELD +6% • P/E 9.2x • F-SCORE 6/9
04 FRED 90D r-MATRIX
Macro Regime Fit
13 / 20
SOLID
TAILWIND • r(10Y)=-0.05 (+19bp) • r(OAS)=-0.38
05 10-K REDLINE AUDIT
Forensic 10-K Risk
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ASO // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +19.45%⚡ TESTING RESISTANCE
2026-11-03O $60.35H $61.84L $59.20C $61.84VOL 920.5K
RES: $63.40SUP: $39.75SMA50: $52.25SMA200: $52.81
$63.31$57.54$51.77$46.00$40.23RES $63.40SUP $39.75$61.842026-05-042026-06-182026-08-052026-09-212026-11-03
ASO // INSTITUTIONAL BULL VS. BEAR FORENSIC DEBATE
NEUTRAL / PAIR TRADE CONVICTION: 52/100
BEAR 0
100 BULL

Academy Sports and Outdoors Inc. (ASO) exhibits 34.8% gross margins and 17.4% return on invested capital within Consumer Discretionary (Other Specialty Stores), balanced against a 5.6x enterprise multiple and 4.8% implied options volatility.

▲ INSTITUTIONAL BULL THESIS (LONG)
01. Operating Leverage & Capital Efficiency Moat

Sustained 34.8% gross profitability converts into 8.5% operating margin and 17.4% ROIC, outpacing sector cost of capital.

ROIC: 17.4% // GM: 34.8%
02. Top-Line Expansion & Cash Conversion

YoY revenue trajectory of +2.0% paired with 5.98% free cash flow yield supports self-funded R&D and capital return.

REV YOY: +2.0% // FCF YLD: 5.98%
03. Balance Sheet Solvency & Forensic Quality

Altman Z-Score of 2.90 and Piotroski F-Score of 6/9 indicate low near-term refinancing stress.

ALTMAN Z: 2.90 // F-SCORE: 6/9
▼ INSTITUTIONAL BEAR THESIS (SHORT / RISK)
01. Multiple Compression & Duration Sensitivity

Trading at 9.9x trailing P/E (9.2x Fwd P/E) leaves valuation vulnerable if real 10Y TIPS yields spike.

P/E: 9.9x // EV/EBITDA: 5.6x
02. Options Skew & Event Volatility Risk

Options market prices a ±5.2% implied move with a 0.85 put/call ratio around $61.84 max pain.

IMPL MOVE: ±5.2% // P/C: 0.85
03. Competitive Margin & CapEx Cycle Pressure

Elevated industry capital intensity and customer concentration in Other Specialty Stores require continuous execution to defend 6.2% net margins.

NET MARGIN: 6.2% // D/E: 0.22x
KEY CATALYST // Upcoming 10-Q/10-K XBRL margin progression, guidance revision vs 9.2x forward consensus, and institutional 13F positioning.
MACRO REGIME // Monitor US 10Y Real Yields (DFII10) and High-Yield Credit Spreads (OAS) for beta-adjusted multiple impact (Beta 1.15).
FORM 4 & 13F FLOW OPEN OWN <GO>
FILER SIDE $ VALUE
INSPECT FULL OWNERSHIP LEDGER IN OWN <GO>
UNUSUAL OPTIONS TAPE OPEN OPT <GO>
STRIKE / EXP TYPE PREMIUM
INSPECT GEX & CHAIN IN OPT <GO>
KEY VALUATION & PROFITABILITY RATIOS XBRL FA <GO>
TRAILING P/E 9.9x
FORWARD P/E 9.2x
EV / EBITDA 5.6x
FCF YIELD 5.98%
GROSS MARGIN 34.8%
OPERATING MARGIN 8.5%
NET MARGIN 6.2%
ROIC % 17.4%
REV GROWTH YOY +2.0%
DILUTED EPS TTM $6.12
DEBT / EQUITY 0.22x
DIVIDEND YIELD 0.93%
RSI-14 MOMENTUM 60.1
5Y EQUITY BETA 1.15
FRED MACRO SENSITIVITY (PEARSON r) ECST <GO>
MACRO CORRELATION CALIBRATION ACTIVE BELOW.
FRED MACRO REGIME STRESS-TEST SIMULATOR // ASOPEARSON R VARIANCE ENGINE
01 // SELECT FEDERAL RESERVE & CREDIT SHOCK SCENARIO
02 // POSITION NOTIONAL EXPOSURE
HEADLINE STRESS SCORE
75/100SEVERE DRAWDOWN PRESSURE
PRIMARY FACTOR EXPOSURE
DFII10 // -0.61 r
Latest: 2.08%
EST. DIRECTIONAL MOVE
-8.50%
Implied Px: $56.59
EST. DOLLAR VARIANCE
-$4,248
On $50,000 Notional
[LOCKED // MULTI-FACTOR DRAWDOWN HEDGE & MACRO TRIGGER ALERT]

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HEAD-TO-HEAD PEER COMPARISONS COMP <GO>