ROARABLE // PRO
GLOBAL DESKS // NYC --:--:-- NYSE
US TAPE
ROAR ▸

APLD // Applied Digital Corporation

DES <GO> NASDAQ RQD COCKPIT → CIK 0001144879 ↗
Technology • EDP Services
$17.82 ▼ -1.59 (-8.22%)
MKT CAP: $5.39B • VOL: 26.64M
APLD // ROARABLE RATING & 5-PILLAR RQD CONFIDENCE 02:00 EST DETERMINISTIC ENGINE
PRIOR: RQD 37/100 [D-] (+0 PT) • UNCHANGED
ROARABLE D-
RQD CONFIDENCE
37 / 100 +0D
5 X 20-PT QUANT PILLARS
E 0 D 35 C 59 B 70 A 86+
Roarable Sell — Vulnerable Balance Sheet & Flow
01 MASSIVE / SEC XBRL
Forensic Fundamentals
9 / 20
WARNING
FCF +151% vs NI -7.1% • ROIC-WACC -29.7% • Z 1.44
02 INSTITUTIONAL TAPE & TREND
Whale & Options Flow
6 / 20
CRITICAL
52W RANGE 2% • VS 200D -42.6% • RSI 38.5
03 SEC XBRL CAPITAL ALLOCATION
Insider & Capital Conviction
10 / 20
NEUTRAL
FCF YIELD +1.1% • P/E 20x • F-SCORE 7/9
04 FRED 90D r-MATRIX
Macro Regime Fit
[LOCKED] FLAGGED
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05 10-K REDLINE AUDIT
Forensic 10-K Risk
[LOCKED] FLAGGED
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ALERT

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APLD // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -49.99%🛡️ HOLDING TREND SUPPORT
2026-11-03O $19.41H $19.41L $17.82C $17.82VOL 26.64M
RES: $24.74SUP: $16.93SMA50: $23.53SMA200: $31.07
$53.07$43.34$33.62$23.90$14.17RES $24.74SUP $16.93$17.822026-05-042026-06-182026-08-052026-09-212026-11-03
APLD // INSTITUTIONAL BULL VS. BEAR FORENSIC DEBATE
HIGH-CONVICTION LONG CONVICTION: 88/100
BEAR 0
100 BULL

Applied Digital Corporation (APLD) exhibits 35.1% gross margins and -21.7% return on invested capital within Technology (EDP Services), balanced against a 24.0x enterprise multiple and 4.8% implied options volatility.

▲ INSTITUTIONAL BULL THESIS (LONG)
01. Operating Leverage & Capital Efficiency Moat

Sustained 35.1% gross profitability converts into -38.7% operating margin and -21.7% ROIC, outpacing sector cost of capital.

ROIC: -21.7% // GM: 35.1%
02. Top-Line Expansion & Cash Conversion

YoY revenue trajectory of +180.0% paired with 1.06% free cash flow yield supports self-funded R&D and capital return.

REV YOY: +180.0% // FCF YLD: 1.06%
03. Balance Sheet Solvency & Forensic Quality

Altman Z-Score of 1.44 and Piotroski F-Score of 7/9 indicate low near-term refinancing stress.

ALTMAN Z: 1.44 // F-SCORE: 7/9
▼ INSTITUTIONAL BEAR THESIS (SHORT / RISK)
01. Multiple Compression & Duration Sensitivity

Trading at 24.0x trailing P/E (20.0x Fwd P/E) leaves valuation vulnerable if real 10Y TIPS yields spike.

P/E: 24.0x // EV/EBITDA: —
02. Options Skew & Event Volatility Risk

Options market prices a ±5.2% implied move with a 0.85 put/call ratio around $17.82 max pain.

IMPL MOVE: ±5.2% // P/C: 0.85
03. Competitive Margin & CapEx Cycle Pressure

Elevated industry capital intensity and customer concentration in EDP Services require continuous execution to defend -40.9% net margins.

NET MARGIN: -40.9% // D/E: 0.91x
KEY CATALYST // Upcoming 10-Q/10-K XBRL margin progression, guidance revision vs 20.0x forward consensus, and institutional 13F positioning.
MACRO REGIME // Monitor US 10Y Real Yields (DFII10) and High-Yield Credit Spreads (OAS) for beta-adjusted multiple impact (Beta 1.17).
FORM 4 & 13F FLOW OPEN OWN <GO>
FILER SIDE $ VALUE
INSPECT FULL OWNERSHIP LEDGER IN OWN <GO>
UNUSUAL OPTIONS TAPE OPEN OPT <GO>
STRIKE / EXP TYPE PREMIUM
INSPECT GEX & CHAIN IN OPT <GO>
KEY VALUATION & PROFITABILITY RATIOS XBRL FA <GO>
TRAILING P/E —
FORWARD P/E 20.0x
EV / EBITDA —
FCF YIELD 1.06%
GROSS MARGIN 35.1%
OPERATING MARGIN -38.7%
NET MARGIN -40.9%
ROIC % -21.7%
REV GROWTH YOY +180.0%
DILUTED EPS TTM $-0.83
DEBT / EQUITY 0.91x
DIVIDEND YIELD 0.00%
RSI-14 MOMENTUM 38.5
5Y EQUITY BETA 1.17
FRED MACRO SENSITIVITY (PEARSON r) ECST <GO>
MACRO CORRELATION CALIBRATION ACTIVE BELOW.
FRED MACRO REGIME STRESS-TEST SIMULATOR // APLDPEARSON R VARIANCE ENGINE
01 // SELECT FEDERAL RESERVE & CREDIT SHOCK SCENARIO
02 // POSITION NOTIONAL EXPOSURE
HEADLINE STRESS SCORE
75/100SEVERE DRAWDOWN PRESSURE
PRIMARY FACTOR EXPOSURE
DFII10 // -0.61 r
Latest: 2.08%
EST. DIRECTIONAL MOVE
-8.50%
Implied Px: $16.31
EST. DOLLAR VARIANCE
-$4,248
On $50,000 Notional
[LOCKED // MULTI-FACTOR DRAWDOWN HEDGE & MACRO TRIGGER ALERT]

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HEAD-TO-HEAD PEER COMPARISONS COMP <GO>