ROARABLE // PRO
GLOBAL DESKS // NYC --:--:-- NYSE
US TAPE
ROAR ▸

AMG // Affiliated Managers Group Inc.

DES <GO> NYSE RQD COCKPIT → CIK 0001004434 ↗
Financials • Investment Managers
$381.57 ▼ -17.45 (-4.37%)
MKT CAP: $9.87B • VOL: 275.1K
AMG // ROARABLE RATING & 5-PILLAR RQD CONFIDENCE 02:00 EST DETERMINISTIC ENGINE
▼ DOWNGRADE // B+ (RQD 77) -> B (RQD 74)
ROARABLE B
RQD CONFIDENCE
74 / 100 -3D
5 X 20-PT QUANT PILLARS
E 0 D 35 C 59 B 70 A 86+
Roarable Buy — Good Risk/Reward
01 MASSIVE / SEC XBRL
Forensic Fundamentals
14 / 20
SOLID
FCF +4.1% vs NI +40.1% • ROIC-WACC +6.1% • Z 3.2
02 INSTITUTIONAL TAPE & TREND
Whale & Options Flow
14 / 20
SOLID
52W RANGE 88% • VS 200D +14.4% • RSI 48.5
03 SEC XBRL CAPITAL ALLOCATION
Insider & Capital Conviction
18 / 20
STRONG
FCF YIELD +9.4% • P/E 13.4x • F-SCORE 8/9
04 FRED 90D r-MATRIX
Macro Regime Fit
[LOCKED] FLAGGED
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05 10-K REDLINE AUDIT
Forensic 10-K Risk
[LOCKED] FLAGGED
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ALERT

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AMG // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +28.25%▲ ASCENDING CHANNEL
2026-11-03O $399.0H $399.0L $381.6C $381.6VOL 275.1K
RES: $405.3SUP: $350.2SMA50: $373.7SMA200: $333.6
$409.5$370.7$331.8$293.0$254.2RES $405.3SUP $350.2$381.62026-05-042026-06-182026-08-052026-09-212026-11-03
AMG // INSTITUTIONAL BULL VS. BEAR FORENSIC DEBATE
NEUTRAL / PAIR TRADE CONVICTION: 50/100
BEAR 0
100 BULL

Affiliated Managers Group Inc. (AMG) exhibits 45.0% gross margins and 14.8% return on invested capital within Financials (Investment Managers), balanced against a 13.4x enterprise multiple and 4.8% implied options volatility.

▲ INSTITUTIONAL BULL THESIS (LONG)
01. Operating Leverage & Capital Efficiency Moat

Sustained 45.0% gross profitability converts into 42.1% operating margin and 14.8% ROIC, outpacing sector cost of capital.

ROIC: 14.8% // GM: 45.0%
02. Top-Line Expansion & Cash Conversion

YoY revenue trajectory of +1.6% paired with 9.37% free cash flow yield supports self-funded R&D and capital return.

REV YOY: +1.6% // FCF YLD: 9.37%
03. Balance Sheet Solvency & Forensic Quality

Altman Z-Score of 3.80 and Piotroski F-Score of 8/9 indicate low near-term refinancing stress.

ALTMAN Z: 3.80 // F-SCORE: 8/9
▼ INSTITUTIONAL BEAR THESIS (SHORT / RISK)
01. Multiple Compression & Duration Sensitivity

Trading at 14.4x trailing P/E (13.4x Fwd P/E) leaves valuation vulnerable if real 10Y TIPS yields spike.

P/E: 14.4x // EV/EBITDA: 13.4x
02. Options Skew & Event Volatility Risk

Options market prices a ±5.2% implied move with a 0.85 put/call ratio around $381.57 max pain.

IMPL MOVE: ±5.2% // P/C: 0.85
03. Competitive Margin & CapEx Cycle Pressure

Elevated industry capital intensity and customer concentration in Investment Managers require continuous execution to defend 34.5% net margins.

NET MARGIN: 34.5% // D/E: 0.45x
KEY CATALYST // Upcoming 10-Q/10-K XBRL margin progression, guidance revision vs 13.4x forward consensus, and institutional 13F positioning.
MACRO REGIME // Monitor US 10Y Real Yields (DFII10) and High-Yield Credit Spreads (OAS) for beta-adjusted multiple impact (Beta 0.99).
FORM 4 & 13F FLOW OPEN OWN <GO>
FILER SIDE $ VALUE
INSPECT FULL OWNERSHIP LEDGER IN OWN <GO>
UNUSUAL OPTIONS TAPE OPEN OPT <GO>
STRIKE / EXP TYPE PREMIUM
INSPECT GEX & CHAIN IN OPT <GO>
KEY VALUATION & PROFITABILITY RATIOS XBRL FA <GO>
TRAILING P/E 14.4x
FORWARD P/E 13.4x
EV / EBITDA 13.4x
FCF YIELD 9.37%
GROSS MARGIN —
OPERATING MARGIN 42.1%
NET MARGIN 34.5%
ROIC % 14.8%
REV GROWTH YOY +1.6%
DILUTED EPS TTM $27.71
DEBT / EQUITY —
DIVIDEND YIELD 0.01%
RSI-14 MOMENTUM 48.5
5Y EQUITY BETA 0.99
FRED MACRO SENSITIVITY (PEARSON r) ECST <GO>
MACRO CORRELATION CALIBRATION ACTIVE BELOW.
FRED MACRO REGIME STRESS-TEST SIMULATOR // AMGPEARSON R VARIANCE ENGINE
01 // SELECT FEDERAL RESERVE & CREDIT SHOCK SCENARIO
02 // POSITION NOTIONAL EXPOSURE
HEADLINE STRESS SCORE
75/100SEVERE DRAWDOWN PRESSURE
PRIMARY FACTOR EXPOSURE
DFII10 // -0.61 r
Latest: 2.08%
EST. DIRECTIONAL MOVE
-8.50%
Implied Px: $349.15
EST. DOLLAR VARIANCE
-$4,248
On $50,000 Notional
[LOCKED // MULTI-FACTOR DRAWDOWN HEDGE & MACRO TRIGGER ALERT]

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HEAD-TO-HEAD PEER COMPARISONS COMP <GO>