ROARABLE // PRO
GLOBAL DESKS // NYC --:--:-- NYSE
US TAPE
ROAR ▸

ADSK // Autodesk Inc.

DES <GO> NASDAQ RQD COCKPIT → CIK 0000769397 ↗
Technology • Computer Software: Prepackaged Software
$249.61 ▲ +7.88 (+3.26%)
MKT CAP: $52.17B • VOL: 2.47M
ADSK // ROARABLE RATING & 5-PILLAR RQD CONFIDENCE 02:00 EST DETERMINISTIC ENGINE
▲ UPGRADE // B (RQD 73) -> B+ (RQD 76)
ROARABLE B+
RQD CONFIDENCE
76 / 100 +3D
5 X 20-PT QUANT PILLARS
E 0 D 35 C 59 B 70 A 86+
Roarable Buy — Very Good Cash & Smart-Money Inflow
01 MASSIVE / SEC XBRL
Forensic Fundamentals
20 / 20
STRONG
FCF +53.7% vs NI +1.1% • ROIC-WACC +22.2% • Z 5.82
02 INSTITUTIONAL TAPE & TREND
Whale & Options Flow
14 / 20
SOLID
52W RANGE 48% • VS 200D +6.8% • RSI 59.2
03 SEC XBRL CAPITAL ALLOCATION
Insider & Capital Conviction
15 / 20
SOLID
FCF YIELD +4.8% • P/E 37.7x • F-SCORE 8/9
04 FRED 90D r-MATRIX
Macro Regime Fit
[LOCKED] FLAGGED
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05 10-K REDLINE AUDIT
Forensic 10-K Risk
[LOCKED] FLAGGED
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ALERT

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ADSK // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +0.84%⚡ TESTING RESISTANCE
2026-11-03O $241.7H $249.6L $241.7C $249.6VOL 2.47M
RES: $252.6SUP: $204.3SMA50: $231.9SMA200: $233.7
$286.9$259.4$231.9$204.4$177.0RES $252.6SUP $204.3$249.62026-05-042026-06-182026-08-052026-09-212026-11-03
ADSK // INSTITUTIONAL BULL VS. BEAR FORENSIC DEBATE
ACCUMULATE CONVICTION: 65/100
BEAR 0
100 BULL

Autodesk Inc. (ADSK) exhibits 91.0% gross margins and 30.8% return on invested capital within Technology (Computer Software: Prepackaged Software), balanced against a 31.5x enterprise multiple and 4.8% implied options volatility.

▲ INSTITUTIONAL BULL THESIS (LONG)
01. Operating Leverage & Capital Efficiency Moat

Sustained 91.0% gross profitability converts into 21.9% operating margin and 30.8% ROIC, outpacing sector cost of capital.

ROIC: 30.8% // GM: 91.0%
02. Top-Line Expansion & Cash Conversion

YoY revenue trajectory of +17.5% paired with 4.77% free cash flow yield supports self-funded R&D and capital return.

REV YOY: +17.5% // FCF YLD: 4.77%
03. Balance Sheet Solvency & Forensic Quality

Altman Z-Score of 5.82 and Piotroski F-Score of 8/9 indicate low near-term refinancing stress.

ALTMAN Z: 5.82 // F-SCORE: 8/9
▼ INSTITUTIONAL BEAR THESIS (SHORT / RISK)
01. Multiple Compression & Duration Sensitivity

Trading at 44.9x trailing P/E (37.7x Fwd P/E) leaves valuation vulnerable if real 10Y TIPS yields spike.

P/E: 44.9x // EV/EBITDA: 31.5x
02. Options Skew & Event Volatility Risk

Options market prices a ±5.2% implied move with a 0.85 put/call ratio around $249.61 max pain.

IMPL MOVE: ±5.2% // P/C: 0.85
03. Competitive Margin & CapEx Cycle Pressure

Elevated industry capital intensity and customer concentration in Computer Software: Prepackaged Software require continuous execution to defend 15.6% net margins.

NET MARGIN: 15.6% // D/E: 0.83x
KEY CATALYST // Upcoming 10-Q/10-K XBRL margin progression, guidance revision vs 37.7x forward consensus, and institutional 13F positioning.
MACRO REGIME // Monitor US 10Y Real Yields (DFII10) and High-Yield Credit Spreads (OAS) for beta-adjusted multiple impact (Beta 1.33).
FORM 4 & 13F FLOW OPEN OWN <GO>
FILER SIDE $ VALUE
INSPECT FULL OWNERSHIP LEDGER IN OWN <GO>
UNUSUAL OPTIONS TAPE OPEN OPT <GO>
STRIKE / EXP TYPE PREMIUM
INSPECT GEX & CHAIN IN OPT <GO>
KEY VALUATION & PROFITABILITY RATIOS XBRL FA <GO>
TRAILING P/E 44.9x
FORWARD P/E 37.7x
EV / EBITDA 31.5x
FCF YIELD 4.77%
GROSS MARGIN 91.0%
OPERATING MARGIN 21.9%
NET MARGIN 15.6%
ROIC % 30.8%
REV GROWTH YOY +17.5%
DILUTED EPS TTM $5.38
DEBT / EQUITY 0.83x
DIVIDEND YIELD 0.00%
RSI-14 MOMENTUM 59.2
5Y EQUITY BETA 1.33
FRED MACRO SENSITIVITY (PEARSON r) ECST <GO>
MACRO CORRELATION CALIBRATION ACTIVE BELOW.
FRED MACRO REGIME STRESS-TEST SIMULATOR // ADSKPEARSON R VARIANCE ENGINE
01 // SELECT FEDERAL RESERVE & CREDIT SHOCK SCENARIO
02 // POSITION NOTIONAL EXPOSURE
HEADLINE STRESS SCORE
75/100SEVERE DRAWDOWN PRESSURE
PRIMARY FACTOR EXPOSURE
DFII10 // -0.61 r
Latest: 2.08%
EST. DIRECTIONAL MOVE
-8.50%
Implied Px: $228.40
EST. DOLLAR VARIANCE
-$4,248
On $50,000 Notional
[LOCKED // MULTI-FACTOR DRAWDOWN HEDGE & MACRO TRIGGER ALERT]

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HEAD-TO-HEAD PEER COMPARISONS COMP <GO>