ROARABLE // PRO
GLOBAL DESKS // NYC --:--:-- NYSE
US TAPE
ROAR ▸

AAON // AAON Inc.

DES <GO> NASDAQ RQD COCKPIT → CIK 0000824142 ↗
Industrials • Industrial Machinery/Components
$67.99 ▲ +0.59 (+0.88%)
MKT CAP: $5.56B • VOL: 1.02M
AAON // ROARABLE RATING & 5-PILLAR RQD CONFIDENCE 02:00 EST DETERMINISTIC ENGINE
PRIOR: RQD 38/100 [D-] (-2 PT) • UNCHANGED
ROARABLE D-
RQD CONFIDENCE
36 / 100 -2D
5 X 20-PT QUANT PILLARS
E 0 D 35 C 59 B 70 A 86+
Roarable Sell — Vulnerable Balance Sheet & Flow
01 MASSIVE / SEC XBRL
Forensic Fundamentals
8 / 20
WARNING
FCF -120% vs NI -36.2% • ROIC-WACC +0.9% • Z 6.82
02 INSTITUTIONAL TAPE & TREND
Whale & Options Flow
5 / 20
CRITICAL
52W RANGE 2% • VS 200D -30.8% • RSI 38.7
03 SEC XBRL CAPITAL ALLOCATION
Insider & Capital Conviction
[LOCKED] FLAGGED
UNLOCK BELOW TO REVEAL
04 FRED 90D r-MATRIX
Macro Regime Fit
5 / 20
CRITICAL
HEADWIND • r(10Y)=+0.02 (+19bp) • r(OAS)=-0.34
05 10-K REDLINE AUDIT
Forensic 10-K Risk
[LOCKED] FLAGGED
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ALERT

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AAON // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -26.02%🛡️ HOLDING TREND SUPPORT
2026-11-03O $75.30H $75.30L $67.40C $67.99VOL 1.83M
RES: $75.28SUP: $64.95SMA50: $78.37SMA200: $97.46
$156.4$131.8$107.2$82.53$57.91RES $75.28SUP $64.95$67.992026-05-042026-06-182026-08-052026-09-212026-11-03
AAON // INSTITUTIONAL BULL VS. BEAR FORENSIC DEBATE
UNDERWEIGHT CONVICTION: 44/100
BEAR 0
100 BULL

AAON Inc. (AAON) exhibits 26.7% gross margins and 9.5% return on invested capital within Industrials (Industrial Machinery/Components), balanced against a 32.5x enterprise multiple and 4.8% implied options volatility.

▲ INSTITUTIONAL BULL THESIS (LONG)
01. Operating Leverage & Capital Efficiency Moat

Sustained 26.7% gross profitability converts into 10.1% operating margin and 9.5% ROIC, outpacing sector cost of capital.

ROIC: 9.5% // GM: 26.7%
02. Top-Line Expansion & Cash Conversion

YoY revenue trajectory of +13.2% paired with -1.04% free cash flow yield supports self-funded R&D and capital return.

REV YOY: +13.2% // FCF YLD: -1.04%
03. Balance Sheet Solvency & Forensic Quality

Altman Z-Score of 6.82 and Piotroski F-Score of 5/9 indicate low near-term refinancing stress.

ALTMAN Z: 6.82 // F-SCORE: 5/9
▼ INSTITUTIONAL BEAR THESIS (SHORT / RISK)
01. Multiple Compression & Duration Sensitivity

Trading at 57.7x trailing P/E (48.5x Fwd P/E) leaves valuation vulnerable if real 10Y TIPS yields spike.

P/E: 57.7x // EV/EBITDA: 32.5x
02. Options Skew & Event Volatility Risk

Options market prices a ±5.2% implied move with a 0.85 put/call ratio around $67.99 max pain.

IMPL MOVE: ±5.2% // P/C: 0.85
03. Competitive Margin & CapEx Cycle Pressure

Elevated industry capital intensity and customer concentration in Industrial Machinery/Components require continuous execution to defend 7.5% net margins.

NET MARGIN: 7.5% // D/E: 0.39x
KEY CATALYST // Upcoming 10-Q/10-K XBRL margin progression, guidance revision vs 48.5x forward consensus, and institutional 13F positioning.
MACRO REGIME // Monitor US 10Y Real Yields (DFII10) and High-Yield Credit Spreads (OAS) for beta-adjusted multiple impact (Beta 1.01).
FORM 4 & 13F FLOW OPEN OWN <GO>
FILER SIDE $ VALUE
INSPECT FULL OWNERSHIP LEDGER IN OWN <GO>
UNUSUAL OPTIONS TAPE OPEN OPT <GO>
STRIKE / EXP TYPE PREMIUM
INSPECT GEX & CHAIN IN OPT <GO>
KEY VALUATION & PROFITABILITY RATIOS XBRL FA <GO>
TRAILING P/E 57.7x
FORWARD P/E 48.5x
EV / EBITDA 32.5x
FCF YIELD -1.04%
GROSS MARGIN 26.7%
OPERATING MARGIN 10.1%
NET MARGIN 7.5%
ROIC % 9.5%
REV GROWTH YOY +13.2%
DILUTED EPS TTM $1.30
DEBT / EQUITY 0.39x
DIVIDEND YIELD 0.53%
RSI-14 MOMENTUM 38.7
5Y EQUITY BETA 1.01
FRED MACRO SENSITIVITY (PEARSON r) ECST <GO>
MACRO CORRELATION CALIBRATION ACTIVE BELOW.
FRED MACRO REGIME STRESS-TEST SIMULATOR // AAONPEARSON R VARIANCE ENGINE
01 // SELECT FEDERAL RESERVE & CREDIT SHOCK SCENARIO
02 // POSITION NOTIONAL EXPOSURE
HEADLINE STRESS SCORE
75/100SEVERE DRAWDOWN PRESSURE
PRIMARY FACTOR EXPOSURE
DFII10 // -0.61 r
Latest: 2.08%
EST. DIRECTIONAL MOVE
-8.50%
Implied Px: $62.21
EST. DOLLAR VARIANCE
-$4,248
On $50,000 Notional
[LOCKED // MULTI-FACTOR DRAWDOWN HEDGE & MACRO TRIGGER ALERT]

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HEAD-TO-HEAD PEER COMPARISONS COMP <GO>