ROARABLE // PRO
GLOBAL DESKS // NYC --:--:-- NYSE
US TAPE
ROAR ▸

AAOI // Applied Optoelectronics Inc.

DES <GO> NASDAQ RQD COCKPIT → CIK 0001158114 ↗
Technology • Semiconductors
$69.05 ▼ -10.14 (-12.80%)
MKT CAP: $5.86B • VOL: 17.12M
AAOI // ROARABLE RATING & 5-PILLAR RQD CONFIDENCE 02:00 EST DETERMINISTIC ENGINE
PRIOR: RQD 34/100 [E] (-1 PT) • UNCHANGED
ROARABLE E
RQD CONFIDENCE
33 / 100 -1D
5 X 20-PT QUANT PILLARS
E 0 D 35 C 59 B 70 A 86+
Roarable Strong Sell — Forensic Risk / Avoid
01 MASSIVE / SEC XBRL
Forensic Fundamentals
5 / 20
CRITICAL
FCF -120% vs NI +79.5% • ROIC-WACC -19.5% • Z 9.36
02 INSTITUTIONAL TAPE & TREND
Whale & Options Flow
7 / 20
WARNING
52W RANGE 23% • VS 200D -39.8% • RSI 38.6
03 SEC XBRL CAPITAL ALLOCATION
Insider & Capital Conviction
[LOCKED] FLAGGED
UNLOCK BELOW TO REVEAL
04 FRED 90D r-MATRIX
Macro Regime Fit
[LOCKED] FLAGGED
UNLOCK BELOW TO REVEAL
05 10-K REDLINE AUDIT
Forensic 10-K Risk
11 / 20
NEUTRAL
20 BASE - 9 DEDUCT • 0 CRIT / 0 MED • STABLE
ALERT

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AAOI // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -60.08%🛡️ HOLDING TREND SUPPORT
2026-11-03O $79.19H $79.19L $69.05C $69.05VOL 17.12M
RES: $113.2SUP: $65.30SMA50: $96.40SMA200: $114.8
$246.4$193.7$141.1$88.39$35.73RES $113.2SUP $65.30$69.052026-05-042026-06-182026-08-052026-09-212026-11-03
AAOI // INSTITUTIONAL BULL VS. BEAR FORENSIC DEBATE
HIGH-CONVICTION LONG CONVICTION: 74/100
BEAR 0
100 BULL

Applied Optoelectronics Inc. (AAOI) exhibits 30.0% gross margins and -8.0% return on invested capital within Technology (Semiconductors), balanced against a 24.0x enterprise multiple and 4.8% implied options volatility.

▲ INSTITUTIONAL BULL THESIS (LONG)
01. Operating Leverage & Capital Efficiency Moat

Sustained 30.0% gross profitability converts into -12.0% operating margin and -8.0% ROIC, outpacing sector cost of capital.

ROIC: -8.0% // GM: 30.0%
02. Top-Line Expansion & Cash Conversion

YoY revenue trajectory of +82.8% paired with -5.26% free cash flow yield supports self-funded R&D and capital return.

REV YOY: +82.8% // FCF YLD: -5.26%
03. Balance Sheet Solvency & Forensic Quality

Altman Z-Score of 9.36 and Piotroski F-Score of 4/9 indicate low near-term refinancing stress.

ALTMAN Z: 9.36 // F-SCORE: 4/9
▼ INSTITUTIONAL BEAR THESIS (SHORT / RISK)
01. Multiple Compression & Duration Sensitivity

Trading at 24.0x trailing P/E (22.0x Fwd P/E) leaves valuation vulnerable if real 10Y TIPS yields spike.

P/E: 24.0x // EV/EBITDA: —
02. Options Skew & Event Volatility Risk

Options market prices a ±5.2% implied move with a 0.85 put/call ratio around $69.05 max pain.

IMPL MOVE: ±5.2% // P/C: 0.85
03. Competitive Margin & CapEx Cycle Pressure

Elevated industry capital intensity and customer concentration in Semiconductors require continuous execution to defend -8.4% net margins.

NET MARGIN: -8.4% // D/E: 0.00x
KEY CATALYST // Upcoming 10-Q/10-K XBRL margin progression, guidance revision vs 22.0x forward consensus, and institutional 13F positioning.
MACRO REGIME // Monitor US 10Y Real Yields (DFII10) and High-Yield Credit Spreads (OAS) for beta-adjusted multiple impact (Beta 1.32).
FORM 4 & 13F FLOW OPEN OWN <GO>
FILER SIDE $ VALUE
INSPECT FULL OWNERSHIP LEDGER IN OWN <GO>
UNUSUAL OPTIONS TAPE OPEN OPT <GO>
STRIKE / EXP TYPE PREMIUM
INSPECT GEX & CHAIN IN OPT <GO>
KEY VALUATION & PROFITABILITY RATIOS XBRL FA <GO>
TRAILING P/E —
FORWARD P/E 22.0x
EV / EBITDA —
FCF YIELD -5.26%
GROSS MARGIN 30.0%
OPERATING MARGIN -12.0%
NET MARGIN -8.4%
ROIC % -8.0%
REV GROWTH YOY +82.8%
DILUTED EPS TTM $-0.45
DEBT / EQUITY 0.00x
DIVIDEND YIELD 0.00%
RSI-14 MOMENTUM 38.6
5Y EQUITY BETA 1.32
FRED MACRO SENSITIVITY (PEARSON r) ECST <GO>
MACRO CORRELATION CALIBRATION ACTIVE BELOW.
FRED MACRO REGIME STRESS-TEST SIMULATOR // AAOIPEARSON R VARIANCE ENGINE
01 // SELECT FEDERAL RESERVE & CREDIT SHOCK SCENARIO
02 // POSITION NOTIONAL EXPOSURE
HEADLINE STRESS SCORE
75/100SEVERE DRAWDOWN PRESSURE
PRIMARY FACTOR EXPOSURE
DFII10 // -0.61 r
Latest: 2.08%
EST. DIRECTIONAL MOVE
-8.50%
Implied Px: $63.18
EST. DOLLAR VARIANCE
-$4,248
On $50,000 Notional
[LOCKED // MULTI-FACTOR DRAWDOWN HEDGE & MACRO TRIGGER ALERT]

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HEAD-TO-HEAD PEER COMPARISONS COMP <GO>