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Zai Lab Limited (ZLAB) 12-Month Stock Forecast & Price Target Cone

$21.67 -1.83% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $21.56

Zai Lab Limited (ZLAB) carries a Roarable Rating of E (Strong Sell) with 28/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

ROARABLE E • RED ALERT Cap $2.48B
📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card
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🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is ZLAB stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
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As of 2026-11-03, Zai Lab Limited (NASDAQ: ZLAB) is rated E (Strong Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 28/100 at a spot price of $21.67 (-1.83% 1D, market cap $2.48B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 3/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 6/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 8/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 8/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 3/20. Across 1015 tracked Health Care issuers, ZLAB ranks #853 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does ZLAB compare to PGEN and SUPN in the Health Care sector?
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Within the Health Care sector (Biotechnology: Pharmaceutical Preparations), ZLAB carries a Roarable E (28/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of 58.3%, and ROIC of -35.0%. By comparison, PGEN (Precigen Inc.) holds a E grade (33/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -35.0%, cap $2.48B) and SUPN (Supernus Pharmaceuticals Inc.) posts a D+ grade (57/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -4.5%, cap $2.44B). Among the 5-stock peer group, ZLAB leads on earnings multiple (N/A) while SUPN leads on capital efficiency (-4.5% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for ZLAB?
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Per ZLAB's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001704292), Zai Lab Limited generated $457.2M in revenue (+15.0% YoY), -$175.5M in net income, and -$158.9M in free cash flow against $1.17B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Health Care with deep daily trading liquidity. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $21.56 (-0.52%)🧬 Dilution Drag (+2.48% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 3/20 (E) • 0% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →
📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (28/100 · E) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows (-10.0% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 29.0% hit rate).
Audit Bucket Track Record →
RQD QUANT TACHOMETERRED ALERT • E
025507510028
3-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bearish Warning
Cash
SEC
Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw E · Rk D-
Cash (3)Whales (6)SEC (8)Macro (8)CEO (3)
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE-13.5% Base Target
$29 Bull$19 Base$15 Bear
📬 FREE ZLAB RATING-CHANGE & BRIEFING ALERTSManage / Unsubscribe
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for ZLAB)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±10%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (28/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY ZLAB SCORES 28/100 (E) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+8/20 pts (29% of score)

Altman Z-Score 0.52 (DISTRESS RISK (<1.8)) • Piotroski F-Score 5/9

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Macro Regime Fit+8/20 pts (29% of score)

FRED Regime × Technicals: 49% of 52W Range • RSI-14 at 40.8 (NEUTRAL RANGE)

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution4/20 pts (-16 pt drag)

Dilution Drag (+2.48% YoY Shares) & executive Form 4 sales trim 16 pts from alignment

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)
36
Grade E$23.10+8.6% Next Q
Q2 (-2Q)
33
Grade E$25.08-6% Next Q
Q3 (-1Q)
31
Grade E$23.58-8.1% Next Q
Current
28
Grade E$21.67-10% Hist 90D α
Trajectory: E (36) → E (28)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a ZLAB Turnaround Squeeze

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

While ZLAB currently carries a cautious 28/100 (E) rating due to Insider Conviction & Share Dilution (4/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1

Established market leader in Health Care with deep daily trading liquidity.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2

Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($24.79) and Max Pain ($22.75) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $28.88.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3

Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Dilution Drag (+2.48% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $ZLAB• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “ZLAB Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
YES 28%NO 72%Trade / Inspect Odds →
INTERACTIVE 12-MONTH POSITION SIMULATOR

Drag to Test Your ZLAB Position Size: $10,000

Shares at $21.67: 461.5 sh
$1,000$10,000$25,000$50,000$100,000
12M Bear Case FloorTarget $14.62
$6,747
$-3,253 (-32.5%)
12M Consensus BaseTarget $18.74
$8,648
$-1,352 (-13.5%)
12M Bull Case BreakoutTarget $28.88
$13,327
+$3,327 (+33.3%)

Wall Street Analyst Breakdown & Historical Accuracy Audit (35 Desks)

Street Historical Accuracy: 64/100
● Strong Buy / Buy: 17● Hold: 9● Sell: 9
Wall Street FirmStance12M Target1Y AccuracyTrack Grade
Morgan StanleyInstitutional Equity DeskHOLD$1974%A
Goldman SachsSector Coverage LeadUNDERPERFORM$2769%B
JP MorganUS Large-Cap ResearchSELL$1758%C
ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring ZLAB)

  • ✓Walkthrough of ZLAB's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
  • ✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
  • ✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks
RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED
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ZLAB // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +2.12%🛡️ HOLDING TREND SUPPORT
2026-11-03O $22.36H $22.36L $21.67C $21.67VOL 637.8K
RES: $26.57SUP: $21.10SMA50: $24.79SMA200: $21.01
$28.29$25.03$21.77$18.51$15.25RES $26.57SUP $21.10$21.672026-05-042026-06-172026-08-042026-09-182026-11-03
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

ZLAB Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 ZLAB Butterfly Map → + Track ZLAB →
Share Count & Dilution Monitor

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle
8.0%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +15.0% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on ZLAB today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for ZLAB. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for ZLAB today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (ZLAB)

Health Care Rank #853 of 1015 ⚔️ PGEN vs ZLAB Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Health Care Peer Comparison (ZLAB vs. PGEN, SUPN, NAMS, PHVS)

Industry: Biotechnology: Pharmaceutical Preparations (489 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1015 tracked Health Care securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Zai Lab Limited (ZLAB) ranks #853 by composite RQD confidence (28/100, grade E) and #220 by equity capitalization ($2.48B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, ZLAB leads on earnings valuation at N/A trailing P/E, while SUPN leads on capital efficiency and profitability with -4.5% ROIC and 89.6% gross margin. PHVS currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 59/100 (C-) compared with ZLAB at 28/100 (E).

Ticker / Company Roarable Grade RQD Score Trailing P/E Gross Margin ROIC 1D Change Market Cap Head-to-Head
ZLAB ACTIVE
Zai Lab Limited
E 28/100 — 58.3% -35.0% -1.83% $2.48B Benchmark Subject
PGEN
Precigen Inc.
E 33/100 — — -35.0% -25.94% $2.48B /pgen-vs-zlab →
SUPN
Supernus Pharmaceuticals Inc.
D+ 57/100 — 89.6% -4.5% +0.19% $2.44B /supn-vs-zlab →
NAMS
NewAmsterdam Pharma Company N.V.
E 26/100 — — -35.0% -2.49% $2.40B /nams-vs-zlab →
PHVS
Pharvaris N.V.
C- 59/100 — — — 0.00% $2.34B /phvs-vs-zlab →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001704292 ↗

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Zai Lab Limited (ZLAB) reported GAAP revenue of $457.2M (+15.0% vs. FY2024 revenue of $397.6M , and +71.4% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of -$175.5M, operating cash flow of -$150.8M, and free cash flow of -$158.9M (+27.9% YoY). On the balance sheet, ZLAB closed FY2025 with $1.17B in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 0.52, Piotroski F-Score: 5/9).

Fiscal Period Filing Date Revenue Net Income Operating Cash Flow Free Cash Flow Total Assets Total Debt
FY2025 (FY) 2025-12-31 $457.2M -$175.5M -$150.8M -$158.9M $1.17B —
FY2024 (FY) 2024-12-31 $397.6M -$257.1M -$214.9M -$220.5M $1.19B —
FY2023 (FY) 2023-12-31 $266.7M -$334.6M -$198.2M -$198.2M — —

3. ZLAB Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is ZLAB stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-03, Zai Lab Limited (NASDAQ: ZLAB) is rated E (Strong Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 28/100 at a spot price of $21.67 (-1.83% 1D, market cap $2.48B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 3/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 6/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 8/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 8/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 3/20. Across 1015 tracked Health Care issuers, ZLAB ranks #853 in composite RQD confidence.

How does ZLAB compare to PGEN and SUPN in the Health Care sector?

Within the Health Care sector (Biotechnology: Pharmaceutical Preparations), ZLAB carries a Roarable E (28/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of 58.3%, and ROIC of -35.0%. By comparison, PGEN (Precigen Inc.) holds a E grade (33/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -35.0%, cap $2.48B) and SUPN (Supernus Pharmaceuticals Inc.) posts a D+ grade (57/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -4.5%, cap $2.44B). Among the 5-stock peer group, ZLAB leads on earnings multiple (N/A) while SUPN leads on capital efficiency (-4.5% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for ZLAB?

Per ZLAB's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001704292), Zai Lab Limited generated $457.2M in revenue (+15.0% YoY), -$175.5M in net income, and -$158.9M in free cash flow against $1.17B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Health Care with deep daily trading liquidity. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is ZLAB trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

ZLAB last traded at $21.67 (-1.83% on volume of 473,902 shares), positioning the stock -12.59% below its 50-day simple moving average ($24.79) and +3.14% above its 200-day simple moving average ($21.01). Across its 52-week range of $15.96 to $27.50, ZLAB sits at the 49.5% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 40.8 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±10.0% ($19.50 to $23.84).

Direct Sub-Reports: ZLAB RQD Cockpit ZLAB 12M Forecast ZLAB Earnings & Move ZLAB Dividends & DRIP ZLAB Insiders & 13F ZLAB Whale Options ZLAB Profit Sankey ZLAB News & Why
ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 28/100 (E) ✓ SEC XBRL & RQD VERIFIED

ZLAB — Zai Lab Limited: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Methodology: RQD v6.2 Deterministic 5-Pillar & SEC XBRL Audit
Updated: 2025-12-31

1. Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

Zai Lab Limited (ZLAB) earns a live Roarable RQD composite score of 28/100, corresponding to a E letter grade (Roarable Strong Sell) at a spot price of $21.67 (-1.83% 1D, market capitalization $2.48B).

  • Fundamental Cash Engine (3/20): Anchored by return on invested capital (ROIC) of -35.0%, gross margin of 58.3%, operating margin of -50.2%, and free cash flow yield of -6.33%.
  • Whale 13F & Options Flow (6/20) + Insider Conviction (3/20): Tracks institutional 13F accumulation, CBOE options call/put positioning, and SEC Form 4 / Congressional PTR filings.
  • Macro Regime Fit (8/20) + Forensic Balance Sheet (8/20): Incorporates a 1.00x equity beta, Altman Z-Score of 0.52, Piotroski F-Score of 5/9, and Debt/Equity of N/A.

2. Business Model, Unit Margins & SEC Financial Trajectory

Zai Lab Limited (ZLAB) is a NASDAQ-listed issuer in the Health Care sector, within the Biotechnology: Pharmaceutical Preparations industry. Its market capitalization is $2.5B.

In its latest audited SEC EDGAR 10-K filing for FY2025 (filed 2025-12-31), Zai Lab Limited (ZLAB) reported $457.2M in annual revenue (up from $397.6M in FY2024, +15.0% YoY) and -$175.5M in GAAP net income. Over the multi-year SEC filing window from FY2023 ($266.7M revenue, -$334.6M net income) through FY2025, ZLAB scaled operating cash flow to -$150.8M and free cash flow to -$158.9M, backed by $1.17B in total assets against $0 in total debt.

3. Institutional Bull vs. Bear Thesis & Valuation Tradeoff

  • 🐂 Primary Bull Case (E • RQD 28/100): Established market leader in Health Care with deep daily trading liquidity. Free cash flow yield of -6.33% and institutional whale pillar of 6/20. With Fundamental Cash Engine at 3/20 and Institutional Whale Flow at 6/20, sustained execution supports upside toward the upper end of the $15.96 – $27.50 52-week range.
  • 🐻 Primary Bear Case & Valuation Risk: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. Investors must weigh current valuation against -50.2% operating margins and a 1.00x macro beta.

4. 2nd-Order Butterfly Ripples & Key Questions to Watch

Operating in Biotechnology: Pharmaceutical Preparations (Health Care), ZLAB carries a macro regime beta of 1.00 and gross margin of 58.3%.

  • Key Question #1: Can ZLAB sustain or expand its -50.2% operating margin and -35.0% ROIC against Biotechnology: Pharmaceutical Preparations peers over the next 4 quarters?
  • Key Question #2: Following FY2025 revenue of $457.2M and free cash flow of -$158.9M, how will capital allocation balance growth reinvestment against $0 in total debt?
  • Key Question #3: How sensitive is ZLAB's equity valuation to Health Care capital spending cycles and macro interest-rate shifts (Beta 1.00x)?

ZLAB Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for Zai Lab Limited (ZLAB) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to ZLAB Debate Forum (3) ↓
🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

ZLAB Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $21.67?

🐂 67% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON ZLAB 🐻 33% BEARISH CONVICTION
1. Pick Your Side on ZLAB:
💡 Tip: Back up your call with a price target or RQD metric to get upvoted to the top.
MA MacroHawk_NYC RQD DEBATE OPENER • Cross-Asset Macro Desk 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $28.03 (+27.0%)
📌 Pinned Debate

Revenue grew from $266.7M in FY 2023 to $457.2M in FY 2025 while cash reached $679.6M, and early clinical headlines show an 82% respons

Revenue grew from $266.7M in FY 2023 to $457.2M in FY 2025 while cash reached $679.6M, and early clinical headlines show an 82% response rate.. When you look under the hood at ZLAB, Fundamental Cash Engine is 3/20 with 58.3% gross margins and -35.0% ROIC. Bears are staring in the rearview mirror while institutional 13F flow (6/20) has been quietly accumulating below $27.50. My 12M target is $28.03.

VolSurface_Trader 🐂 BULL

Both sides have a point here — ZLAB's 8/20 balance sheet score keeps downside contained, so the real swing factor next earnings call is backlog and FCF conversion.

RE RedlineAuditor RQD DEBATE OPENER • Accounting Quality Watch 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $17.88 (-19.0%)
Spot @ $22.07

ROIC of -35%, FCF yield of -6.33%, and an Altman Z of 0.52 leave the company without cash generation or a strong balance-sheet signal.

Here is the bear case nobody on the bull side wants to address on ZLAB: ROIC of -35%, FCF yield of -6.33%, and an Altman Z of 0.52 leave the company without cash generation or a strong balance-sheet signal.. At current EV/EBITDA multiples, even a small guidance miss in Biotechnology: Pharmaceutical Preparations triggers a 12-15% air pocket.

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