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Stock Ratings / Consumer Discretionary / YUMC / insiders
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Yum China Holdings Inc. (YUMC) Insider, 13F Hedge Fund & Politician Buy/Sell Thermometer

$45.78 +1.28% NYSE • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $46.00

Yum China Holdings Inc. (YUMC) earns a Roarable Rating of B- (Buy) with 71/100 RQD Confidence. High-quality cash engine (steady margins, 15% return on capital) with steady institutional support. The company’s underlying cash engine and institutional positioning keep the composite score in the Green Buy zone.

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 71/100 (B-) historically ranked in the Top 14% of excess returns over the next 90 days (+6.8% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 68.4% hit rate) →
ROARABLE B- • BUY Cap $15.48B
📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card
⚡ INSTANT AI QUANT PREVIEW • $0 FREE TIER Click Any Pre-Computed AI Quant Specialist Briefing on YUMC Below — or Connect Your Own ChatGPT / Claude
🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is YUMC stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
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As of 2026-11-02, Yum China Holdings Inc. (NYSE: YUMC) is rated B- (Buy / BUY) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 71/100 at a spot price of $45.78 (+1.28% 1D, market cap $15.48B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 16/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 11/20, Executive Insider Alignment 16/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 10/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 18/20. Across 1011 tracked Consumer Discretionary issuers, YUMC ranks #125 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does YUMC compare to ARMK and TXRH in the Consumer Discretionary sector?
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Within the Consumer Discretionary sector (Restaurants), YUMC carries a Roarable B- (71/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 16.7x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 14.9%. By comparison, ARMK (Aramark) holds a C grade (64/100 RQD, P/E 45.2x, ROIC 11.4%, cap $14.77B) and TXRH (Texas Roadhouse Inc.) posts a B+ grade (77/100 RQD, P/E 29.6x, ROIC 28.3%, cap $12.01B). Among the 5-stock peer group, YUMC leads on earnings multiple (16.7x) while EAT leads on capital efficiency (53.3% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for YUMC?
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Per YUMC's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001673358), Yum China Holdings Inc. generated $11.80B in revenue (+4.4% YoY), $929.0M in net income, and $840.0M in free cash flow against $10.78B in total assets and $2.11B in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Strong cash generator (steady margins)—profits are backed by real money, not accounting tricks.. Primary risk factors monitored: Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $46.00 (+0.47%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-2.92% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 16/20 (B+) • 7.1% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →
📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 71/100 (B-) historically ranked in the Top 14% of excess returns over the next 90 days (+6.8% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 68.4% hit rate).
Audit Bucket Track Record →
RQD QUANT TACHOMETERBUY • B-
025507510071
2-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bullish
Cash
SEC
Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw B · Rk C
Cash (16)Whales (11)SEC (16)Macro (10)CEO (18)
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE+5.9% Base Target
$61 Bull$48 Base$38 Bear
📬 FREE YUMC RATING-CHANGE & BRIEFING ALERTSManage / Unsubscribe
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for YUMC)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±3.6%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (71/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY YUMC SCORES 71/100 (B-) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution+18/20 pts (25% of score)

SEC Form 4 / 13F Thermometer: 86% Net Buy • Cannibal Buyback (-2.92% YoY Shares)

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Cash Engine Quality+16/20 pts (23% of score)

SEC XBRL FY 2025 (10-K): 7.1% FCF Margin ($840.0M FCF) & 52% Gross Margin

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Macro Regime Fit10/20 pts (-10 pt drag)

Macro rate sensitivity & RSI-14 (59) create a -10 pt regime headwind

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)
63
Grade C+$43.11+4.6% Next Q
Q2 (-2Q)
66
Grade B-$45.10+0.7% Next Q
Q3 (-1Q)
68
Grade B-$45.43+0.8% Next Q
Current
71
Grade B-$45.78+6.8% Hist 90D α
Trajectory: C+ (63) → B- (71)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the YUMC Bull Thesis Could Fail

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

Even with a 71/100 (B-) score, YUMC faces multiple-compression risk if 16.7x trailing P/E re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1

Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2

Dilution & Margin Drag: Cannibal Buyback (-2.92% YoY Shares) — any gross margin slip below 49.5% triggers an automatic RQD downgrade.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3

Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($43.22) or 200D SMA ($46.81) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($48.46) toward Bear Floor ($37.54).

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $YUMC• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “YUMC Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
YES 71%NO 29%Trade / Inspect Odds →
SEC FORM 4 × 13F HEDGE FUNDS × CONGRESSIONAL STOCK ACT

YUMC Smart-Money Thermometer: HEAVY INSIDER & 13F ACCUMULATION

Explore All 13F & Congress Whales →
▲ Disclosed Buys: 0 ($0)▼ Disclosed Sales: 0 ($0)

Wide-Open SEC Form 4, 13F & Congressional Disclosure Ledger (YUMC)

No recent open-market Form 4 cluster sales or emergency dumps flagged on YUMC. Visit the Global 13F & Congressional Whale Ledger for cross-market smart-money filings.

ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Quantitative Research Desk

Scheduled RQD Strong Buys & Whale Accumulation Briefing (YUMC Tape Review)

  • ✓Breakdown of the highest-scoring RQD Green-Light breakouts across our 5,200+ rated universe
  • ✓Forensic Red-Light accounting & dilution traps to review on your watchlist
  • ✓Includes downloadable .ics calendar invite & nightly RQD rating-change email alerts
RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED
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Join Founding VIP Waitlist (No Card Required) →$100K Arena
YUMC // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -4.31%📐 HORIZONTAL RANGE
2026-11-02O $44.49H $45.78L $44.49C $45.78VOL 1.22M
RES: $50.10SUP: $38.48SMA50: $43.22SMA200: $46.81
$51.66$48.42$45.19$41.95$38.72RES $50.10SUP $38.48$45.782026-05-042026-06-172026-08-042026-09-182026-11-02
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

YUMC Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 YUMC Butterfly Map → + Track YUMC →
Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)
9.5%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +4.4% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on YUMC today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for YUMC. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for YUMC today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (YUMC)

Consumer Discretionary Rank #125 of 1011 ⚔️ ARMK vs YUMC Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Consumer Discretionary Peer Comparison (YUMC vs. ARMK, TXRH, DRI, EAT)

Industry: Restaurants (51 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1011 tracked Consumer Discretionary securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Yum China Holdings Inc. (YUMC) ranks #125 by composite RQD confidence (71/100, grade B-) and #125 by equity capitalization ($15.48B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, YUMC leads on earnings valuation at 16.7x trailing P/E, while EAT leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 53.3% ROIC and — gross margin. EAT currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 84/100 (A-) compared with YUMC at 71/100 (B-).

Ticker / Company Roarable Grade RQD Score Trailing P/E Gross Margin ROIC 1D Change Market Cap Head-to-Head
YUMC ACTIVE
Yum China Holdings Inc.
B- 71/100 16.7x — 14.9% +1.28% $15.48B Benchmark Subject
ARMK
Aramark
C 64/100 45.2x — 11.4% -3.68% $14.77B /armk-vs-yumc →
TXRH
Texas Roadhouse Inc.
B+ 77/100 29.6x — 28.3% -0.24% $12.01B /txrh-vs-yumc →
DRI
Darden Restaurants Inc.
C 64/100 20.7x 20.3% 19.5% -0.14% $24.95B /dri-vs-yumc →
EAT
Brinker International Inc.
A- 84/100 18.8x — 53.3% -3.51% $9.14B /eat-vs-yumc →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001673358

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Yum China Holdings Inc. (YUMC) reported GAAP revenue of $11.80B (+4.4% vs. FY2024 revenue of $11.30B , and +7.5% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $929.0M, operating cash flow of $1.47B, and free cash flow of $840.0M (+17.6% YoY). On the balance sheet, YUMC closed FY2025 with $10.78B in total assets against $2.11B in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 3.71, Piotroski F-Score: 9/9).

Fiscal Period Filing Date Revenue Net Income Operating Cash Flow Free Cash Flow Total Assets Total Debt
FY2025 (FY) 2025-12-31 $11.80B $929.0M $1.47B $840.0M $10.78B $2.11B
FY2024 (FY) 2024-12-31 $11.30B $911.0M $1.42B $714.0M $11.12B $2.11B
FY2023 (FY) 2023-12-31 $10.98B $827.0M $1.47B $979.0M $13.17B $3.08B

3. YUMC Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is YUMC stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-02, Yum China Holdings Inc. (NYSE: YUMC) is rated B- (Buy / BUY) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 71/100 at a spot price of $45.78 (+1.28% 1D, market cap $15.48B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 16/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 11/20, Executive Insider Alignment 16/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 10/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 18/20. Across 1011 tracked Consumer Discretionary issuers, YUMC ranks #125 in composite RQD confidence.

How does YUMC compare to ARMK and TXRH in the Consumer Discretionary sector?

Within the Consumer Discretionary sector (Restaurants), YUMC carries a Roarable B- (71/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 16.7x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 14.9%. By comparison, ARMK (Aramark) holds a C grade (64/100 RQD, P/E 45.2x, ROIC 11.4%, cap $14.77B) and TXRH (Texas Roadhouse Inc.) posts a B+ grade (77/100 RQD, P/E 29.6x, ROIC 28.3%, cap $12.01B). Among the 5-stock peer group, YUMC leads on earnings multiple (16.7x) while EAT leads on capital efficiency (53.3% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for YUMC?

Per YUMC's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001673358), Yum China Holdings Inc. generated $11.80B in revenue (+4.4% YoY), $929.0M in net income, and $840.0M in free cash flow against $10.78B in total assets and $2.11B in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Strong cash generator (steady margins)—profits are backed by real money, not accounting tricks.. Primary risk factors monitored: Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is YUMC trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

YUMC last traded at $45.78 (+1.28% on volume of 1,647,875 shares), positioning the stock +5.92% above its 50-day simple moving average ($43.22) and -2.20% below its 200-day simple moving average ($46.81). Across its 52-week range of $39.72 to $58.39, YUMC sits at the 32.5% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 59.0 (BULLISH MOMENTUM) and an implied next-earnings move of ±3.6% ($44.13 to $47.43).

YUMC Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index

100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FRED

Are YUMC insiders and hedge funds buying or selling?

Roarable's SEC Form 4 and 13F Whale Thermometer currently classifies YUMC leadership and institutional positioning as: HEAVY INSIDER & 13F ACCUMULATION.

Direct Sub-Reports: YUMC RQD Cockpit YUMC 12M Forecast YUMC Earnings & Move YUMC Dividends & DRIP YUMC Insiders & 13F YUMC Whale Options YUMC Profit Sankey YUMC News & Why
ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 71/100 (B-) ✓ STAGE-C NUMBER FIREWALL VERIFIED

YUMC — Yum China Holdings Inc.: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Engine: anthropic/claude-haiku-5.5
As of: 2026-11-02T15:14:33Z

Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

Per the Roarable RQD rating, YUMC scores 71 out of 100 with a letter grade of B-, labeled "Roarable Buy — Sound Institutional Accumulation." The Fundamental Cash Engine pillar scores 16 of 20, supported by ROIC of 14.9% and an FCF yield of 5.43%, indicating the business generates meaningful returns on capital relative to the price paid. The Whale 13F Flow pillar scores 11 of 20, reflecting institutional accumulation and options positioning that is constructive but not dominant. The Insider Conviction pillar scores 18 of 20, the strongest pillar, based on SEC Form 4 and Congressional PTR cluster flow. The Macro Regime Fit pillar scores 10 of 20, reflecting a beta of 1.16 and sector sensitivity, meaning the stock is expected to move more than the broader market and is exposed to shifts in risk appetite. The Forensic Balance Sheet pillar scores 16 of 20, supported by an Altman Z-Score of 3.71, a Piotroski F-Score of 9 of 9, and a Debt/Equity ratio of 0.37.

For a prospective investor evaluating the stock today, the upside case rests on cash generation, insider conviction, and balance sheet strength. The valuation tradeoff is that the stock trades at a P/E (TTM) of 16.7 and a forward P/E of 15.5, with EV/EBITDA of 9.3, which the source data does not benchmark against peers. The macro pillar signals that returns may be more volatile than the market's. Institutional flow is positive but scored below the other pillars, so conviction is more concentrated among insiders than broad-based.

Snapshot

PriceMarket CapP/E (TTM)Forward P/EEV/EBITDAEPS (TTM)Dividend YieldBeta52-Wk RangeROIC %
$45.2$15.48B16.715.59.32.712.28%1.16$39.72 - $58.3914.9%

Business

Yum China Holdings Inc. is a NYSE-listed company in the Consumer Discretionary sector, operating in the Restaurants industry, per the profile section. The source data does not itemize the company's products, customer segments, or revenue mix by channel or geography. The profile describes the company as a restaurant operator with a market capitalization of $15.5B. The source data does not specify how the company monetizes its restaurant operations beyond reported revenue.

Recent Catalysts & News Wire Analysis

  • Yahoo Finance headline "Should Value Investors Buy Yum China (YUMC) Stock?" (1h ago), a general market-action report with no specific catalyst described in the source.
  • ChartMill headline "Yum China Holdings (NYSE:YUMC) Is a Decent Value Stock Trading at a Discount" (3h ago), a valuation-framed report.
  • Yahoo Finance headline "YUMC or CMG: Which Is the Better Value Stock Right Now?" (6h ago), a relative-valuation comparison.
  • GuruFocus headline referencing a 3.4% move (9h ago), with the remainder of the headline truncated in the source.
  • TradingView headline "Yum China Announces Disclosure under Hong Kong Stock Exchange Rules in Relation to a Possible Quarterly Dividend" (12h ago), the most company-specific item, indicating a possible quarterly dividend under HKEX disclosure rules. The source does not state the amount or confirm the decision.
  • Moomoo forum listing for YUM CHINA (09987) (15h ago), a discussion page with no substantive catalyst.

Risk watch items: the source data does not describe any operational, regulatory, or litigation risk events. All six news items are labeled with the same "MARKET WIRE" impact label and a YELLOW light. Per the butterfly supply-chain graph, the sector is Consumer Discretionary, the industry is Restaurants, and the supply chain is listed as NONE, with no butterfly links and no proprietary signals.

Open Questions

  • The gross margin is reported as 0%, while operating and net margins are positive. The source data does not explain whether this reflects a reporting convention or a data gap.
  • EPS is reported as N/A for all three fiscal years, although EPS (TTM) is 2.71. The source does not reconcile these figures.
  • Cash for FY 2023 is N/A, so the source does not allow a full three-year cash trend.
  • The source does not confirm the amount or timing of the possible quarterly dividend referenced in the TradingView item, and the dividend yield of 2.28% cannot be tied to a declared payout.
  • The analyst and holder sections are empty, so the RQD insider and whale pillars cannot be traced to named filings, owners, or transaction sizes.

YUMC Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for Yum China Holdings Inc. (YUMC) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to YUMC Debate Forum (3) ↓
🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

YUMC Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $45.78?

🐂 67% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON YUMC 🐻 33% BEARISH CONVICTION
1. Pick Your Side on YUMC:
💡 Tip: Back up your call with a price target or RQD metric to get upvoted to the top.
RO RoarDesk_Moderator Roarable Research Desk 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $53.34 (+18.0%)
📌 Pinned Debate

🔥 Official Bull vs. Bear Debate: Is YUMC (B- • RQD 71/100) a Buy at $45.20?

Welcome to the YUMC (Yum China Holdings Inc.) Roar Pit. Current RQD Composite is 71/100 (Roarable Buy — Sound Institutional Accumulation) in Restaurants. Bulls point to capital efficiency (14.9% ROIC), while bears focus on macro rate sensitivity and margin execution. Pick your side (🐂 Bull or 🐻 Bear) and drop your price target below.

RI RiskArb_Desk Forensic Accounting Watch 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $35.26 (-22.0%)
Spot @ $45.20

Pump the brakes on YUMC — check the valuation vs. margin headwinds

Everyone in here is repeating the bull case on YUMC, but look at what you are paying: 16.7x trailing P/E with tightening sector spreads. Unless Yum China Holdings Inc. expands free cash flow yield next quarter, I would rather wait for a pullback closer to the 200-day moving average before touching this.

MA MacroHawk_NYC Verified K Arena Trader 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $56.50 (+25.0%)
Spot @ $45.20

YUMC cash flow & RQD setup is being underpriced by the Street here

Looking at the 5-pillar RQD breakdown on YUMC, the market is fixating on short-term headline noise in Restaurants and ignoring the balance sheet and cash flow trajectory. At $45.20 (52-wk range $39.72 - $58.39), any beat on forward guidance forces shorts and underweight funds to chase.

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