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Stock Ratings / Health Care / XLO / options
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Xilio Therapeutics Inc. (XLO) Options Positioning, Max Pain & Unusual Sweeps

$7.99 -0.50% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $7.97

Xilio Therapeutics Inc. (XLO) carries a Roarable Rating of E (Strong Sell) with 25/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

ROARABLE E • RED ALERT Cap $52.8M
📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card
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🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is XLO stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
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As of 2026-11-03, Xilio Therapeutics Inc. (NASDAQ: XLO) is rated E (Strong Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 25/100 at a spot price of $7.99 (-0.50% 1D, market cap $52.8M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 5/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 4/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 8/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 5/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 3/20. Across 1015 tracked Health Care issuers, XLO ranks #932 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does XLO compare to HRTX and PLRX in the Health Care sector?
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Within the Health Care sector (Biotechnology: Pharmaceutical Preparations), XLO carries a Roarable E (25/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of —, and ROIC of -35.0%. By comparison, HRTX (Heron Therapeutics Inc.) holds a E grade (34/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -35.0%, cap $52.7M) and PLRX (Pliant Therapeutics Inc.) posts a E grade (34/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -35.0%, cap $53.2M). Among the 5-stock peer group, XLO leads on earnings multiple (N/A) while XLO leads on capital efficiency (-35.0% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for XLO?
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Per XLO's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001840233), Xilio Therapeutics Inc. generated $43.8M in revenue (+589.9% YoY), -$35.0M in net income, and -$5.5M in free cash flow against $154.7M in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Health Care with deep daily trading liquidity. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $7.97 (-0.28%)🧬 Dilution Drag (+2.48% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 5/20 (E) • 0% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →
📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (25/100 · E) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows (-10.7% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 29.0% hit rate).
Audit Bucket Track Record →
RQD QUANT TACHOMETERRED ALERT • E
025507510025
3-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bearish Warning
Cash
SEC
Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw E · Rk E
Cash (5)Whales (4)SEC (8)Macro (5)CEO (3)
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE-14.9% Base Target
$13 Bull$7 Base$5 Bear
📬 FREE XLO RATING-CHANGE & BRIEFING ALERTSManage / Unsubscribe
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for XLO)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±12.5%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (25/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY XLO SCORES 25/100 (E) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+8/20 pts (32% of score)

Altman Z-Score 0.20 (DISTRESS RISK (<1.8)) • Piotroski F-Score 4/9

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Cash Engine Quality+5/20 pts (20% of score)

SEC XBRL FY 2025 (10-K): 0% FCF Margin ($0 FCF) & 52% Gross Margin

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution4/20 pts (-16 pt drag)

Dilution Drag (+2.48% YoY Shares) & executive Form 4 sales trim 16 pts from alignment

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)
33
Grade E$9.07-8.2% Next Q
Q2 (-2Q)
30
Grade E$8.33-12.2% Next Q
Q3 (-1Q)
28
Grade E$7.31+9.3% Next Q
Current
25
Grade E$7.99-10.7% Hist 90D α
Trajectory: E (33) → E (25)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a XLO Turnaround Squeeze

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

While XLO currently carries a cautious 25/100 (E) rating due to Insider Conviction & Share Dilution (4/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1

Established market leader in Health Care with deep daily trading liquidity.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2

Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($8.78) and Max Pain ($8.39) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $12.94.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3

Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Dilution Drag (+2.48% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $XLO• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “XLO Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
YES 25%NO 75%Trade / Inspect Odds →
CALL VS. PUT WHALE SHARE
— (No Active Options Snapshot)
Put/Call Ratio: — (No Active Options Snapshot)
MAX-PAIN EXPIRATION MAGNET
— (No Active Options Snapshot)
No active options chain max-pain snapshot on file
HISTORICAL 20D VOLATILITY SWING
±12.5%
Derived from 20D OHLCV bars (No Active Options Snapshot)

Active Strike Call vs. Put Concentration Ladder (XLO)

— (No Active Options Snapshot) — No unusual CBOE strike concentration anomalies recorded in the current database snapshot for XLO.

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ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring XLO)

  • ✓Walkthrough of XLO's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
  • ✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
  • ✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks
RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED
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XLO // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -4.08%📐 HORIZONTAL RANGE
2026-11-03O $7.77H $8.03L $7.77C $7.99VOL 7.9K
RES: $9.92SUP: $6.95SMA50: $8.78SMA200: $8.49
$10.10$9.27$8.45$7.62$6.79RES $9.92SUP $6.95$7.992026-05-042026-06-172026-08-042026-09-172026-11-03
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

XLO Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 XLO Butterfly Map → + Track XLO →
Share Count & Dilution Monitor

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle
8.0%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +589.9% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on XLO today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for XLO. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for XLO today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (XLO)

Health Care Rank #932 of 1015 ⚔️ HRTX vs XLO Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Health Care Peer Comparison (XLO vs. HRTX, PLRX, TLPH, HYFT)

Industry: Biotechnology: Pharmaceutical Preparations (489 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1015 tracked Health Care securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Xilio Therapeutics Inc. (XLO) ranks #932 by composite RQD confidence (25/100, grade E) and #737 by equity capitalization ($52.8M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, XLO leads on earnings valuation at N/A trailing P/E, while XLO leads on capital efficiency and profitability with -35.0% ROIC and — gross margin. HYFT currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 45/100 (D) compared with XLO at 25/100 (E).

Ticker / Company Roarable Grade RQD Score Trailing P/E Gross Margin ROIC 1D Change Market Cap Head-to-Head
XLO ACTIVE
Xilio Therapeutics Inc.
E 25/100 — — -35.0% -0.50% $52.8M Benchmark Subject
HRTX
Heron Therapeutics Inc.
E 34/100 — 73.3% -35.0% +6.27% $52.7M /hrtx-vs-xlo →
PLRX
Pliant Therapeutics Inc.
E 34/100 — — -35.0% -2.29% $53.2M /plrx-vs-xlo →
TLPH
Talphera Inc.
D- 36/100 — — -35.0% -1.94% $53.5M /tlph-vs-xlo →
HYFT
MindWalk Holdings Corp.
D 45/100 — — — -2.65% $53.8M /hyft-vs-xlo →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001840233 ↗

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Xilio Therapeutics Inc. (XLO) reported GAAP revenue of $43.8M (+589.9% vs. FY2024 revenue of $6.3M , and -80.2% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of -$35.0M, operating cash flow of -$5.0M, and free cash flow of -$5.5M (+70.1% YoY). On the balance sheet, XLO closed FY2025 with $154.7M in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 0.20, Piotroski F-Score: 4/9).

Fiscal Period Filing Date Revenue Net Income Operating Cash Flow Free Cash Flow Total Assets Total Debt
FY2025 (FY) 2025-12-31 $43.8M -$35.0M -$5.0M -$5.5M $154.7M —
FY2024 (FY) 2024-12-31 $6.3M -$58.2M -$18.4M -$18.4M $71.1M —
FY2023 (FY) 2023-12-31 $221.6M -$76.4M -$68.6M -$68.6M — —

3. XLO Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is XLO stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-03, Xilio Therapeutics Inc. (NASDAQ: XLO) is rated E (Strong Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 25/100 at a spot price of $7.99 (-0.50% 1D, market cap $52.8M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 5/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 4/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 8/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 5/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 3/20. Across 1015 tracked Health Care issuers, XLO ranks #932 in composite RQD confidence.

How does XLO compare to HRTX and PLRX in the Health Care sector?

Within the Health Care sector (Biotechnology: Pharmaceutical Preparations), XLO carries a Roarable E (25/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of —, and ROIC of -35.0%. By comparison, HRTX (Heron Therapeutics Inc.) holds a E grade (34/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -35.0%, cap $52.7M) and PLRX (Pliant Therapeutics Inc.) posts a E grade (34/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -35.0%, cap $53.2M). Among the 5-stock peer group, XLO leads on earnings multiple (N/A) while XLO leads on capital efficiency (-35.0% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for XLO?

Per XLO's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001840233), Xilio Therapeutics Inc. generated $43.8M in revenue (+589.9% YoY), -$35.0M in net income, and -$5.5M in free cash flow against $154.7M in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Health Care with deep daily trading liquidity. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is XLO trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

XLO last traded at $7.99 (-0.50% on volume of 6,840 shares), positioning the stock -9.00% below its 50-day simple moving average ($8.78) and -5.89% below its 200-day simple moving average ($8.49). Across its 52-week range of $6.47 to $12.32, XLO sits at the 26.0% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 42.1 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±12.5% ($6.99 to $8.99).

Direct Sub-Reports: XLO RQD Cockpit XLO 12M Forecast XLO Earnings & Move XLO Dividends & DRIP XLO Insiders & 13F XLO Whale Options XLO Profit Sankey XLO News & Why
ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 25/100 (E) ✓ SEC XBRL & RQD VERIFIED

XLO — Xilio Therapeutics Inc.: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Methodology: RQD v6.2 Deterministic 5-Pillar & SEC XBRL Audit
Updated: 2025-12-31

1. Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

Xilio Therapeutics Inc. (XLO) earns a live Roarable RQD composite score of 25/100, corresponding to a E letter grade (Roarable Strong Sell) at a spot price of $7.99 (-0.50% 1D, market capitalization $52.8M).

  • Fundamental Cash Engine (5/20): Anchored by return on invested capital (ROIC) of -35.0%, gross margin of —, operating margin of -60.0%, and free cash flow yield of -10.78%.
  • Whale 13F & Options Flow (4/20) + Insider Conviction (3/20): Tracks institutional 13F accumulation, CBOE options call/put positioning, and SEC Form 4 / Congressional PTR filings.
  • Macro Regime Fit (5/20) + Forensic Balance Sheet (8/20): Incorporates a 1.00x equity beta, Altman Z-Score of 0.20, Piotroski F-Score of 4/9, and Debt/Equity of N/A.

2. Business Model, Unit Margins & SEC Financial Trajectory

Xilio Therapeutics Inc. Is a NASDAQ-listed issuer in the Health Care sector, operating in the Biotechnology: Pharmaceutical Preparations industry. Its market capitalization is $0.1B. Per the market data, the company reports 0% gross margin.

In its latest audited SEC EDGAR 10-K filing for FY2025 (filed 2025-12-31), Xilio Therapeutics Inc. (XLO) reported $43.8M in annual revenue (up from $6.3M in FY2024, +589.9% YoY) and -$35.0M in GAAP net income. Over the multi-year SEC filing window from FY2023 ($221.6M revenue, -$76.4M net income) through FY2025, XLO scaled operating cash flow to -$5.0M and free cash flow to -$5.5M, backed by $154.7M in total assets against $0 in total debt.

3. Institutional Bull vs. Bear Thesis & Valuation Tradeoff

  • 🐂 Primary Bull Case (E • RQD 25/100): Established market leader in Health Care with deep daily trading liquidity. Free cash flow yield of -10.78% and institutional whale pillar of 4/20. With Fundamental Cash Engine at 5/20 and Institutional Whale Flow at 4/20, sustained execution supports upside toward the upper end of the $6.47 – $12.32 52-week range.
  • 🐻 Primary Bear Case & Valuation Risk: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. Investors must weigh current valuation against -60.0% operating margins and a 1.00x macro beta.

4. 2nd-Order Butterfly Ripples & Key Questions to Watch

Upstream and downstream dependencies: — Sector correlations beyond the stated beta of 1.0: — Second-order bottlenecks: — An investor should monitor clinical timelines, since the news feed ties value realization to a Q4 2027 data readout.

  • Key Question #1: Can XLO sustain or expand its -60.0% operating margin and -35.0% ROIC against Biotechnology: Pharmaceutical Preparations peers over the next 4 quarters?
  • Key Question #2: Following FY2025 revenue of $43.8M and free cash flow of -$5.5M, how will capital allocation balance growth reinvestment against $0 in total debt?
  • Key Question #3: How sensitive is XLO's equity valuation to Health Care capital spending cycles and macro interest-rate shifts (Beta 1.00x)?

XLO Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for Xilio Therapeutics Inc. (XLO) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to XLO Debate Forum (3) ↓
🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

XLO Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $7.99?

🐂 67% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON XLO 🐻 33% BEARISH CONVICTION
1. Pick Your Side on XLO:
💡 Tip: Back up your call with a price target or RQD metric to get upvoted to the top.
DE DeepValue_CFA RQD DEBATE OPENER • Institutional Buy-Side 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $10.52 (+31.0%)
📌 Pinned Debate

Raymond James initiated coverage with an outperform rating while the company reports $137.5M in FY 2025 cash.

Don't sleep on XLO's setup in Health Care. Raymond James initiated coverage with an outperform rating while the company reports $137.5M in FY 2025 cash.. Beta of 1.0 means it moves fast when momentum turns, and the 5-pillar RQD gauge (25/100) backs up the fundamental quality.

CapAlloc_Nerd 🐂 BULL

@DeepValue_CFA Agree on the RQD 25/100 quality, though with 1.0 beta I'm scaling in with half-size at $8.03 and keeping dry powder in case we test $7.47.

FA FadeTheHype RQD DEBATE OPENER • Contrarian Tape Reader 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $6.02 (-25.0%)
Spot @ $8.03

The RQD rating scores forensic balance sheet at 8/20 with an Altman Z-Score of 0.2 and ROIC of -35%.

Sitting on the sidelines or leaning short XLO above $8.03. The RQD rating scores forensic balance sheet at 8/20 with an Altman Z-Score of 0.2 and ROIC of -35%.. Until Fundamental Cash Engine (5/20) and FCF yield (-10.78%) inflect higher, upside is capped near $12.32.

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