What is VRRM's 12-month stock price target?

Verra Mobility Corporation (Class A) (VRRM) carries a 12-month consensus base price target of $2.54 (-5.2% from $2.68), with a bull-case target of $24.68 and a bear-case floor of $1.98.

Stock Ratings / Consumer Discretionary / VRRM / forecast

SPCE (22) GMRS (43) VTOL (61) FLYX (26) ⌘ Pro Terminal →

Verra Mobility Corporation (Class A) (VRRM) 12-Month Stock Forecast & Price Target Cone

Q: Is VRRM stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now?

Roarable's 5-Pillar RQD Quant Engine rates VRRM D (Sell — SELL) with an RQD Confidence score of 46/100.

$2.68 -4.29% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $2.65

Verra Mobility Corporation (Class A) (VRRM) carries a Roarable Rating of D (Sell) with 46/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

ROARABLE D • SELL / AVOID Cap $425.6M

📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card

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🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is VRRM stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

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As of 2026-11-03, Verra Mobility Corporation (Class A) (NASDAQ: VRRM) is rated D (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 46/100 at a spot price of $2.68 (-4.29% 1D, market cap $425.6M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 11/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 4/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 10/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 7/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 14/20. Across 1010 tracked Consumer Discretionary issuers, VRRM ranks #634 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does VRRM compare to SPCE and GMRS in the Consumer Discretionary sector?

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Within the Consumer Discretionary sector (Transportation Services), VRRM carries a Roarable D (46/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 3.7x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 15.1%. By comparison, SPCE (Virgin Galactic Holdings Inc.) holds a E grade (22/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -35.0%, cap $391.1M) and GMRS (GMR Solutions Inc. (Class A)) posts a D- grade (43/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC —, cap $604.5M). Among the 5-stock peer group, VRRM leads on earnings multiple (3.7x) while VRRM leads on capital efficiency (15.1% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for VRRM?

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Per VRRM's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001682745), Verra Mobility Corporation (Class A) generated $979.1M in revenue (+11.4% YoY), $136.6M in net income, and $136.7M in free cash flow against $1.65B in total assets and $1.02B in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction. Primary risk factors monitored: Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).

INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:

🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray

EXT / AFTER-HRS: $2.65 (-0.96%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-1.80% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 11/20 (D+) • 14% FCF Margin

Verify 90D Bucket Audit →

📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (46/100 · D) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows (-6.1% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 29.0% hit rate).

Audit Bucket Track Record →

RQD QUANT TACHOMETERSELL / AVOID • D

2-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bearish Warning

Cash

SEC

Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw D · Rk D-

Each axis scored 0–20

12M PRICE TARGET CONE-5.2% Base Target

WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for VRRM)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±12.5%

Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (46/100 Composite)

🔍 WHY VRRM SCORES 46/100 (D) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag

▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution+14/20 pts (30% of score)

SEC Form 4 / 13F Thermometer: 70% Net Buy • Cannibal Buyback (-1.80% YoY Shares)

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Cash Engine Quality+11/20 pts (24% of score)

SEC XBRL FY 2025 (10-K): 14% FCF Margin ($136.7M FCF) & 52% Gross Margin

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Whale & Options Positioning4/20 pts (-16 pt drag)

Put hedging (50% put share) caps near-term gamma upside (-16 pts vs max)

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current

Q1 (-3Q)

Grade C-$3.01+0% Next Q

Q2 (-2Q)

Grade C-$3.01+4.3% Next Q

Q3 (-1Q)

Grade D$3.14-14.6% Next Q

Current

Grade D$2.68-6.1% Hist 90D α

Trajectory: C- (54) → D (46)Full Audit →

⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a VRRM Turnaround Squeeze

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

While VRRM currently carries a cautious 46/100 (D) rating due to Whale & Options Positioning (4/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1

Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2

Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($3.37) and Max Pain ($2.81) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $24.68.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3

Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Cannibal Buyback (-1.80% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $VRRM• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite

Contract: “VRRM Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”

YES 46%NO 54%Trade / Inspect Odds →

INTERACTIVE 12-MONTH POSITION SIMULATOR

Drag to Test Your VRRM Position Size: $10,000

Shares at $2.68: 3731.3 sh

$1,000$10,000$25,000$50,000$100,000

12M Bear Case FloorTarget $1.98

$7,388

$-2,612 (-26.1%)

12M Consensus BaseTarget $2.54

$9,478

$-522 (-5.2%)

12M Bull Case BreakoutTarget $24.68

$92,090

+$82,090 (+820.9%)

Wall Street Analyst Breakdown & Historical Accuracy Audit (35 Desks)

Street Historical Accuracy: 64/100

● Strong Buy / Buy: 17● Hold: 9● Sell: 9

Wall Street Firm	Stance	12M Target	1Y Accuracy	Track Grade
Morgan StanleyInstitutional Equity Desk	HOLD	$3	74%	A
Goldman SachsSector Coverage Lead	UNDERPERFORM	$23	69%	B
JP MorganUS Large-Cap Research	SELL	$2	58%	C

ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring VRRM)

✓Walkthrough of VRRM's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks

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VRRM // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -81.82%⚡ TESTING RESISTANCE

2026-11-03O $3.34H $3.34L $2.68C $2.68VOL 13.09M

RES: $3.25SUP: $2.59SMA50: $3.37SMA200: $9.32

PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

VRRM Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 VRRM Butterfly Map → + Track VRRM →

Share Count & Dilution Monitor

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle

-15.0%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +11.4% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on VRRM today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for VRRM. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video

🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for VRRM today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →

DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (VRRM)

Consumer Discretionary Rank #634 of 1010 ⚔️ SPCE vs VRRM Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Consumer Discretionary Peer Comparison (VRRM vs. SPCE, GMRS, VTOL, FLYX)

Industry: Transportation Services (22 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1010 tracked Consumer Discretionary securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Verra Mobility Corporation (Class A) (VRRM) ranks #634 by composite RQD confidence (46/100, grade D) and #601 by equity capitalization ($425.6M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, VRRM leads on earnings valuation at 3.7x trailing P/E, while VRRM leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 15.1% ROIC and — gross margin. VTOL currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 61/100 (C-) compared with VRRM at 46/100 (D).

Ticker / Company	Roarable Grade	RQD Score	Trailing P/E	Gross Margin	ROIC	1D Change	Market Cap	Head-to-Head
VRRM ACTIVE Verra Mobility Corporation (Class A)	D	46/100	3.7x	—	15.1%	-4.29%	$425.6M	Benchmark Subject
SPCE Virgin Galactic Holdings Inc.	E	22/100	—	-30.0%	-35.0%	-4.26%	$391.1M	/spce-vs-vrrm →
GMRS GMR Solutions Inc. (Class A)	D-	43/100	—	—	—	-0.71%	$604.5M	/gmrs-vs-vrrm →
VTOL Bristow Group Inc.	C-	61/100	9.7x	—	8.9%	-1.83%	$1.24B	/vtol-vs-vrrm →
FLYX flyExclusive Inc. (Class A)	E	26/100	—	15.0%	-35.0%	-10.43%	$121.6M	/flyx-vs-vrrm →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001682745 ↗

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Verra Mobility Corporation (Class A) (VRRM) reported GAAP revenue of $979.1M (+11.4% vs. FY2024 revenue of $879.2M , and +19.8% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $136.6M, operating cash flow of $255.8M, and free cash flow of $136.7M (-10.5% YoY). On the balance sheet, VRRM closed FY2025 with $1.65B in total assets against $1.02B in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 1.26, Piotroski F-Score: 7/9).

Fiscal Period	Filing Date	Revenue	Net Income	Operating Cash Flow	Free Cash Flow	Total Assets	Total Debt
FY2025 (FY)	2025-12-31	$979.1M	$136.6M	$255.8M	$136.7M	$1.65B	$1.02B
FY2024 (FY)	2024-12-31	$879.2M	$31.4M	$223.6M	$152.8M	$1.61B	$1.03B
FY2023 (FY)	2023-12-31	$817.3M	$57.0M	$206.1M	$206.1M	—	—

3. VRRM Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is VRRM stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

How does VRRM compare to SPCE and GMRS in the Consumer Discretionary sector?

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for VRRM?

Where is VRRM trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

VRRM last traded at $2.68 (-4.29% on volume of 9,008,716 shares), positioning the stock -20.47% below its 50-day simple moving average ($3.37) and -71.24% below its 200-day simple moving average ($9.32). Across its 52-week range of $2.60 to $23.50, VRRM sits at the 0.4% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 42.6 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±12.5% ($2.34 to $3.02).

Direct Sub-Reports: VRRM RQD Cockpit VRRM 12M Forecast VRRM Earnings & Move VRRM Dividends & DRIP VRRM Insiders & 13F VRRM Whale Options VRRM Profit Sankey VRRM News & Why

ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 46/100 (D) ✓ SEC XBRL & RQD VERIFIED

VRRM — Verra Mobility Corporation (Class A): What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Methodology: RQD v6.2 Deterministic 5-Pillar & SEC XBRL Audit

Updated: 2025-12-31

1. Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

Verra Mobility Corporation (Class A) (VRRM) earns a live Roarable RQD composite score of 46/100, corresponding to a D letter grade (Roarable Sell) at a spot price of $2.68 (-4.29% 1D, market capitalization $425.6M).

Fundamental Cash Engine (11/20): Anchored by return on invested capital (ROIC) of 15.1%, gross margin of —, operating margin of 24.4%, and free cash flow yield of —.
Whale 13F & Options Flow (4/20) + Insider Conviction (14/20): Tracks institutional 13F accumulation, CBOE options call/put positioning, and SEC Form 4 / Congressional PTR filings.
Macro Regime Fit (7/20) + Forensic Balance Sheet (10/20): Incorporates a 1.00x equity beta, Altman Z-Score of 1.26, Piotroski F-Score of 7/9, and Debt/Equity of 3.49x.

2. Business Model, Unit Margins & SEC Financial Trajectory

Verra Mobility Corporation (Class A) is a NASDAQ-listed issuer in the Consumer Discretionary sector and Transportation Services industry, and profile. —: a detailed description of products, customers, or revenue model. The market data shows an operating margin of 24.4% and a net margin of 14%.

In its latest audited SEC EDGAR 10-K filing for FY2025 (filed 2025-12-31), Verra Mobility Corporation (Class A) (VRRM) reported $979.1M in annual revenue (up from $879.2M in FY2024, +11.4% YoY) and $136.6M in GAAP net income. Over the multi-year SEC filing window from FY2023 ($817.3M revenue, $57.0M net income) through FY2025, VRRM scaled operating cash flow to $255.8M and free cash flow to $136.7M, backed by $1.65B in total assets against $1.02B in total debt.

3. Institutional Bull vs. Bear Thesis & Valuation Tradeoff

🐂 Primary Bull Case (D • RQD 46/100): Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction. Free cash flow yield of — and institutional whale pillar of 4/20. With Fundamental Cash Engine at 11/20 and Institutional Whale Flow at 4/20, sustained execution supports upside toward the upper end of the $2.60 – $23.50 52-week range.
🐻 Primary Bear Case & Valuation Risk: Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity. Investors must weigh 3.7x trailing P/E and 4.3x EV/EBITDA against 24.4% operating margins and a 1.00x macro beta.

4. 2nd-Order Butterfly Ripples & Key Questions to Watch

Sector correlation data is not provided. A prospective investor should watch the CFO transition and reaffirmed guidance reported in the news wire, since leadership changes in finance can affect reporting continuity, and the gap between the reaffirmed guidance and the reported "Reduce" consensus is a second-order signal worth monitoring. —: specific bottlenecks.

Key Question #1: Can VRRM sustain or expand its 24.4% operating margin and 15.1% ROIC against Transportation Services peers over the next 4 quarters?
Key Question #2: Following FY2025 revenue of $979.1M and free cash flow of $136.7M, how will capital allocation balance growth reinvestment against $1.02B in total debt?
Key Question #3: How sensitive is VRRM's 3.5x forward P/E multiple to Consumer Discretionary capital spending cycles and macro interest-rate shifts (Beta 1.00x)?

VRRM Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for Verra Mobility Corporation (Class A) (VRRM) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to VRRM Debate Forum (3) ↓

🟡 MARKET WIRE Yahoo Finance • 21h ago

Verra Mobility Finance Chief to Step Down; Full-Year 2026 Guidance Reaffirmed

Yahoo Finance report covering Verra Mobility Corporation (Class A) (VRRM) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🔴 RISK WATCH TradingView • 1d ago

Verra Mobility Corporation Stock 12‑Month Price Target Cut to $6.33, Implies 90% Upside

TradingView report covering Verra Mobility Corporation (Class A) (VRRM) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE Seeking Alpha • 1d ago

Verra Mobility: Strong Operational Cash, But Shrinking Underlying Business, Hold

Seeking Alpha report covering Verra Mobility Corporation (Class A) (VRRM) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟢 CATALYST AlphaStreet • 1d ago

Verra Mobility Plunges 20.4% on EPS Beat

AlphaStreet report covering Verra Mobility Corporation (Class A) (VRRM) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE Stock Titan • 1d ago

With its CFO set to leave, Verra Mobility (VRRM) reaffirms its 2026 outlook.

Stock Titan report covering Verra Mobility Corporation (Class A) (VRRM) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE MarketBeat • 1d ago

Verra Mobility Corp (NASDAQ:VRRM) Receives Consensus Recommendation of "Reduce" from Brokerages

MarketBeat report covering Verra Mobility Corporation (Class A) (VRRM) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE TradingView • 1d ago

Verra Mobility Corporation Estimates – NASDAQ:VRRM

TradingView report covering Verra Mobility Corporation (Class A) (VRRM) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🔴 RISK WATCH StocksToTrade • 1d ago

VRRM Slides As Multiple Law Firms Probe Corporate Wrongdoing

StocksToTrade report covering Verra Mobility Corporation (Class A) (VRRM) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

VRRM Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $2.68?

🐂 67% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON VRRM 🐻 33% BEARISH CONVICTION

MI MidwestValue RQD DEBATE OPENER • Fundamental Long-Only 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $3.56 (+27.1%)

📌 Pinned Debate

Operating margin of 24.4% and ROIC of 15.1% show the core business earns strong returns on capital at a P/E TTM of just 3.7.

Operating margin of 24.4% and ROIC of 15.1% show the core business earns strong returns on capital at a P/E TTM of just 3.7.. When you look under the hood at VRRM, Fundamental Cash Engine is 11/20 with 0.0% gross margins and 15.1% ROIC. Bears are staring in the rearview mirror while institutional 13F flow (4/20) has been quietly accumulating below $23.50. My 12M target is $3.56.

ArenaChamp_24 🐂 BULL

@SkepticalCFA Fair point on 3.7x trailing P/E, but you're ignoring the forward operating leverage in Transportation Services. If gross margin (0.0%) holds, EPS grows into the multiple faster than bears think.

SK SkepticalCFA RQD DEBATE OPENER • Fundamental Contrarian 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $2.41 (-13.9%)

Spot @ $2.80

A Roarable RQD of 49 (D), Altman Z of 1.26, Debt/Equity of 3.49, and a 0% FCF yield signal distribution risk with high leverage.

A Roarable RQD of 49 (D), Altman Z of 1.26, Debt/Equity of 3.49, and a 0% FCF yield signal distribution risk with high leverage.. Look at the math on VRRM: paying 3.7x trailing P/E for 15.1% ROIC and 24.4% operating margins leaves zero margin of safety if Transportation Services demand softens. I'd wait for a retest of $2.46 before getting long.