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Vital Farms Inc. (VITL) 12-Month Stock Forecast & Price Target Cone

$9.18 +5.88% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $9.26

Vital Farms Inc. (VITL) carries a Roarable Rating of D- (Sell) with 43/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

ROARABLE D- • SELL / AVOID Cap $372.2M
📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card
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🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is VITL stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
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As of 2026-11-03, Vital Farms Inc. (NASDAQ: VITL) is rated D- (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 43/100 at a spot price of $9.18 (+5.88% 1D, market cap $372.2M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 10/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 4/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 12/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 6/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 11/20. Across 147 tracked Consumer Staples issuers, VITL ranks #99 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does VITL compare to LWAY and AFRI in the Consumer Staples sector?
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Within the Consumer Staples sector (Packaged Foods), VITL carries a Roarable D- (43/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 6.0x, gross margin of 37.6%, and ROIC of 23.1%. By comparison, LWAY (Lifeway Foods Inc.) holds a D grade (48/100 RQD, P/E 25.3x, ROIC 15.9%, cap $346.4M) and AFRI (Forafric Global PLC) posts a E grade (24/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -16.5%, cap $337.3M). Among the 5-stock peer group, VITL leads on earnings multiple (6.0x) while VITL leads on capital efficiency (23.1% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for VITL?
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Per VITL's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-28, CIK 0001579733), Vital Farms Inc. generated $759.4M in revenue (+25.3% YoY), $66.3M in net income, and -$48.2M in free cash flow against $518.7M in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Consumer Staples with deep daily trading liquidity. Primary risk factors monitored: Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $9.26 (+0.87%)🧬 Disciplined Float (+0.24% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 10/20 (D) • 0% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →
📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (43/100 · D-) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows (-6.7% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 29.0% hit rate).
Audit Bucket Track Record →
RQD QUANT TACHOMETERSELL / AVOID • D-
025507510043
2-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bearish Warning
Cash
SEC
Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw D- · Rk D
Cash (10)Whales (4)SEC (12)Macro (6)CEO (11)
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE-6.8% Base Target
$41 Bull$9 Base$7 Bear
📬 FREE VITL RATING-CHANGE & BRIEFING ALERTSManage / Unsubscribe
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for VITL)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±12.3%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (43/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY VITL SCORES 43/100 (D-) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+12/20 pts (28% of score)

Altman Z-Score 4.18 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) • Piotroski F-Score 6/9

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution+11/20 pts (26% of score)

SEC Form 4 / 13F Thermometer: 55% Net Buy • Disciplined Float (+0.24% YoY Shares)

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Whale & Options Positioning4/20 pts (-16 pt drag)

Put hedging (50% put share) caps near-term gamma upside (-16 pts vs max)

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)
51
Grade C-$9.34-12.1% Next Q
Q2 (-2Q)
48
Grade D$8.21+10.2% Next Q
Q3 (-1Q)
46
Grade D$9.05+1.4% Next Q
Current
43
Grade D-$9.18-6.7% Hist 90D α
Trajectory: C- (51) → D- (43)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a VITL Turnaround Squeeze

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

While VITL currently carries a cautious 43/100 (D-) rating due to Whale & Options Positioning (4/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1

Established market leader in Consumer Staples with deep daily trading liquidity.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2

Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($9.71) and Max Pain ($9.64) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $40.57.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3

Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Disciplined Float (+0.24% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $VITL• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “VITL Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 27, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
YES 43%NO 57%Trade / Inspect Odds →
INTERACTIVE 12-MONTH POSITION SIMULATOR

Drag to Test Your VITL Position Size: $10,000

Shares at $9.18: 1089.3 sh
$1,000$10,000$25,000$50,000$100,000
12M Bear Case FloorTarget $6.68
$7,277
$-2,723 (-27.2%)
12M Consensus BaseTarget $8.56
$9,325
$-675 (-6.8%)
12M Bull Case BreakoutTarget $40.57
$44,194
+$34,194 (+341.9%)

Wall Street Analyst Breakdown & Historical Accuracy Audit (35 Desks)

Street Historical Accuracy: 64/100
● Strong Buy / Buy: 17● Hold: 9● Sell: 9
Wall Street FirmStance12M Target1Y AccuracyTrack Grade
Morgan StanleyInstitutional Equity DeskHOLD$974%A
Goldman SachsSector Coverage LeadUNDERPERFORM$3869%B
JP MorganUS Large-Cap ResearchSELL$858%C
ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring VITL)

  • ✓Walkthrough of VITL's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
  • ✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
  • ✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks
RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED
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VITL // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -29.38%▼ DESCENDING CHANNEL
2026-11-03O $9.29H $9.29L $8.67C $9.18VOL 2.43M
RES: $11.41SUP: $7.84SMA50: $9.71SMA200: $13.80
$33.19$26.35$19.51$12.67$5.83RES $11.41SUP $7.84$9.182026-05-042026-06-172026-08-042026-09-182026-11-03
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

VITL Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 VITL Butterfly Map → + Track VITL →
Share Count & Dilution Monitor

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle
-10.8%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +25.3% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on VITL today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for VITL. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for VITL today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (VITL)

Consumer Staples Rank #99 of 147 ⚔️ LWAY vs VITL Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Consumer Staples Peer Comparison (VITL vs. LWAY, AFRI, OTLY, OFRM)

Industry: Packaged Foods (41 Tracked Issuers)

Across 147 tracked Consumer Staples securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Vital Farms Inc. (VITL) ranks #99 by composite RQD confidence (43/100, grade D-) and #88 by equity capitalization ($372.2M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, VITL leads on earnings valuation at 6.0x trailing P/E, while VITL leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 23.1% ROIC and 37.6% gross margin. LWAY currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 48/100 (D) compared with VITL at 43/100 (D-).

Ticker / Company Roarable Grade RQD Score Trailing P/E Gross Margin ROIC 1D Change Market Cap Head-to-Head
VITL ACTIVE
Vital Farms Inc.
D- 43/100 6.0x 37.6% 23.1% +5.88% $372.2M Benchmark Subject
LWAY
Lifeway Foods Inc.
D 48/100 25.3x 27.4% 15.9% -2.86% $346.4M /lway-vs-vitl →
AFRI
Forafric Global PLC
E 24/100 — 10.4% -16.5% -1.04% $337.3M /afri-vs-vitl →
OTLY
Oatly Group AB
D 45/100 — — — -0.52% $247.3M /otly-vs-vitl →
OFRM
Once Upon a Farm PBC
D- 42/100 — — — -37.15% $630.7M /ofrm-vs-vitl →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-28 • CIK 0001579733 ↗

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-28), Vital Farms Inc. (VITL) reported GAAP revenue of $759.4M (+25.3% vs. FY2024 revenue of $606.3M , and +60.9% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $66.3M, operating cash flow of $33.7M, and free cash flow of -$48.2M (-233.3% YoY). On the balance sheet, VITL closed FY2025 with $518.7M in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 4.18, Piotroski F-Score: 6/9).

Fiscal Period Filing Date Revenue Net Income Operating Cash Flow Free Cash Flow Total Assets Total Debt
FY2025 (FY) 2025-12-28 $759.4M $66.3M $33.7M -$48.2M $518.7M —
FY2024 (FY) 2024-12-29 $606.3M $53.4M $64.8M $36.2M $359.3M —
FY2023 (FY) 2023-12-31 $471.9M $25.6M $50.9M $50.9M — —

3. VITL Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is VITL stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-03, Vital Farms Inc. (NASDAQ: VITL) is rated D- (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 43/100 at a spot price of $9.18 (+5.88% 1D, market cap $372.2M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 10/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 4/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 12/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 6/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 11/20. Across 147 tracked Consumer Staples issuers, VITL ranks #99 in composite RQD confidence.

How does VITL compare to LWAY and AFRI in the Consumer Staples sector?

Within the Consumer Staples sector (Packaged Foods), VITL carries a Roarable D- (43/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 6.0x, gross margin of 37.6%, and ROIC of 23.1%. By comparison, LWAY (Lifeway Foods Inc.) holds a D grade (48/100 RQD, P/E 25.3x, ROIC 15.9%, cap $346.4M) and AFRI (Forafric Global PLC) posts a E grade (24/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -16.5%, cap $337.3M). Among the 5-stock peer group, VITL leads on earnings multiple (6.0x) while VITL leads on capital efficiency (23.1% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for VITL?

Per VITL's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-28, CIK 0001579733), Vital Farms Inc. generated $759.4M in revenue (+25.3% YoY), $66.3M in net income, and -$48.2M in free cash flow against $518.7M in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Consumer Staples with deep daily trading liquidity. Primary risk factors monitored: Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is VITL trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

VITL last traded at $9.18 (+5.88% on volume of 2,054,938 shares), positioning the stock -5.46% below its 50-day simple moving average ($9.71) and -33.48% below its 200-day simple moving average ($13.80). Across its 52-week range of $7.95 to $38.64, VITL sits at the 4.0% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 43.7 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±12.3% ($8.05 to $10.31).

Direct Sub-Reports: VITL RQD Cockpit VITL 12M Forecast VITL Earnings & Move VITL Dividends & DRIP VITL Insiders & 13F VITL Whale Options VITL Profit Sankey VITL News & Why
ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 43/100 (D-) ✓ SEC XBRL & RQD VERIFIED

VITL — Vital Farms Inc.: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Methodology: RQD v6.2 Deterministic 5-Pillar & SEC XBRL Audit
Updated: 2025-12-28

1. Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

Vital Farms Inc. (VITL) earns a live Roarable RQD composite score of 43/100, corresponding to a D- letter grade (Roarable Sell) at a spot price of $9.18 (+5.88% 1D, market capitalization $372.2M).

  • Fundamental Cash Engine (10/20): Anchored by return on invested capital (ROIC) of 23.1%, gross margin of 37.6%, operating margin of 11.6%, and free cash flow yield of -12.09%.
  • Whale 13F & Options Flow (4/20) + Insider Conviction (11/20): Tracks institutional 13F accumulation, CBOE options call/put positioning, and SEC Form 4 / Congressional PTR filings.
  • Macro Regime Fit (6/20) + Forensic Balance Sheet (12/20): Incorporates a 1.00x equity beta, Altman Z-Score of 4.18, Piotroski F-Score of 6/9, and Debt/Equity of N/A.

2. Business Model, Unit Margins & SEC Financial Trajectory

Vital Farms Inc. (VITL) is a NASDAQ-listed issuer...4B. — describes its specific products, customers, or revenue model beyond these classifications.

In its latest audited SEC EDGAR 10-K filing for FY2025 (filed 2025-12-28), Vital Farms Inc. (VITL) reported $759.4M in annual revenue (up from $606.3M in FY2024, +25.3% YoY) and $66.3M in GAAP net income. Over the multi-year SEC filing window from FY2023 ($471.9M revenue, $25.6M net income) through FY2025, VITL scaled operating cash flow to $33.7M and free cash flow to -$48.2M, backed by $518.7M in total assets against $0 in total debt.

3. Institutional Bull vs. Bear Thesis & Valuation Tradeoff

  • 🐂 Primary Bull Case (D- • RQD 43/100): Established market leader in Consumer Staples with deep daily trading liquidity. Free cash flow yield of -12.09% and institutional whale pillar of 4/20. With Fundamental Cash Engine at 10/20 and Institutional Whale Flow at 4/20, sustained execution supports upside toward the upper end of the $7.95 – $38.64 52-week range.
  • 🐻 Primary Bear Case & Valuation Risk: Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity. Investors must weigh 6.0x trailing P/E against 11.6% operating margins and a 1.00x macro beta.

4. 2nd-Order Butterfly Ripples & Key Questions to Watch

The supply chain is NONE, with no upstream or downstream links and no sector correlations recorded. — identifies specific upstream suppliers, downstream customers, or sector-correlated names. A prospective investor should note that the absence of mapped dependencies means second-order ripple effects cannot be assessed from this dataset.

  • Key Question #1: Can VITL sustain or expand its 11.6% operating margin and 23.1% ROIC against Packaged Foods peers over the next 4 quarters?
  • Key Question #2: Following FY2025 revenue of $759.4M and free cash flow of -$48.2M, how will capital allocation balance growth reinvestment against $0 in total debt?
  • Key Question #3: How sensitive is VITL's 5.0x forward P/E multiple to Consumer Staples capital spending cycles and macro interest-rate shifts (Beta 1.00x)?

VITL Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for Vital Farms Inc. (VITL) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to VITL Debate Forum (3) ↓
🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

VITL Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $9.18?

🐂 67% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON VITL 🐻 33% BEARISH CONVICTION
1. Pick Your Side on VITL:
💡 Tip: Back up your call with a price target or RQD metric to get upvoted to the top.
QU QuantViper RQD DEBATE OPENER • Systematic Momentum Desk 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $10.58 (+22.0%)
📌 Pinned Debate

VITL (D- • RQD 43/100) operating leverage in Packaged Foods is mispriced at $8.67

Picked up a starter position in VITL in my $100K Virtual Cash book at $8.67. VITL (D- • RQD 43/100) operating leverage in Packaged Foods is mispriced at $8.67. Trading inside a $7.95–$38.64 52-week range with -12.09% FCF yield gives solid downside support if Packaged Foods multiples expand this quarter.

CapAlloc_Nerd 🐂 BULL

@CreditSpread_Watch Fair point on 6.0x trailing P/E, but you're ignoring the forward operating leverage in Packaged Foods. If gross margin (37.6%) holds, EPS grows into the multiple faster than bears think.

CR CreditSpread_Watch RQD DEBATE OPENER • Balance Sheet Analyst 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $6.68 (-23.0%)
Spot @ $8.67

Negative FCF yield of -12.09% and FY 2025 FCF of -$48.2M contrast with positive net income of $66.3M, with weak whale and insider pilla

Fading this rally in VITL at $8.67. Negative FCF yield of -12.09% and FY 2025 FCF of -$48.2M contrast with positive net income of $66.3M, with weak whale and insider pillars.. With a beta of 1.0 and the stock sitting at $8.67 (52-wk range $7.95–$38.64), the easy multiple expansion is already priced in.

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