MARKET WIREYahoo Finance • 23h ago
INNOVATE Completes Sale of DBM Global to IES HoldingsYahoo Finance report covering INNOVATE Corp. (VATE) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
Why VATE Stock dropped -2.36% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash
$5.38 -2.36% NYSE • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot)
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $5.35
INNOVATE Corp. (VATE) carries a Roarable Rating of D- (Sell) with 41/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.
ROARABLE D- • RED ALERT
Cap $75.2M
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Is VATE stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
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As of 2026-11-03, INNOVATE Corp. (NYSE: VATE) is rated D- (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 41/100 at a spot price of $5.38 (-2.36% 1D, market cap $75.2M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 15/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 3/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 8/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 6/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 9/20. Across 486 tracked Industrials issuers, VATE ranks #335 in composite RQD confidence.
✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief)
How does VATE compare to AIOS and ZKIN in the Industrials sector?
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Within the Industrials sector (Metal Fabrications), VATE carries a Roarable D- (41/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of 16.0%, and ROIC of 85.0%. By comparison, AIOS (AIOS Tech Inc. (Class A)) holds a D- grade (42/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC 29.9%, cap $74.5M) and ZKIN (ZK International Group Co. Ltd Ordinary Share) posts a D- grade (42/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC —, cap $80.2M). Among the 5-stock peer group, VATE leads on earnings multiple (N/A) while VATE leads on capital efficiency (85.0% ROIC).
✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief)
What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for VATE?
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Per VATE's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001006837), INNOVATE Corp. generated $1.25B in revenue (+12.5% YoY), -$60.6M in net income, and $146.6M in free cash flow against $950.1M in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Strong cash generator (16.0% gross margin)—profits are backed by real money, not accounting tricks. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.
✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $5.35 (-0.61%)🧬 Disciplined Float (-0.40% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 15/20 (B) • 11.8% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (41/100 · D-) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows (-7.2% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 29.0% hit rate).
Audit Bucket Track Record →RQD QUANT TACHOMETERRED ALERT • D-
2-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bearish Warning
Cash
SEC
Whale
Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer
5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw D · Rk D-
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE-7.6% Base Target
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for VATE)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±12.5%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (41/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY VATE SCORES 41/100 (D-) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Cash Engine Quality+15/20 pts (37% of score)
SEC XBRL FY 2025 (10-K): 11.8% FCF Margin ($146.6M FCF) & 16% Gross Margin
▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution+9/20 pts (22% of score)
SEC Form 4 / 13F Thermometer: 45% Net Buy • Disciplined Float (-0.40% YoY Shares)
▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Whale & Options Positioning4/20 pts (-16 pt drag)
Put hedging (50% put share) caps near-term gamma upside (-16 pts vs max)
📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)Grade D$6.38-7.2% Next Q
49
Q2 (-2Q)Grade D$5.92+0.7% Next Q
46
Q3 (-1Q)Grade D$5.96-9.7% Next Q
44
CurrentGrade D-$5.38-7.2% Hist 90D α
41
Trajectory: D (49) → D- (41)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER
⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a VATE Turnaround Squeeze
While VATE currently carries a cautious 41/100 (D-) rating due to Whale & Options Positioning (4/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.
🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1
Strong cash generator (16.0% gross margin)—profits are backed by real money, not accounting tricks.
🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2
Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($6.94) and Max Pain ($5.65) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $22.37.
🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3
Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Disciplined Float (-0.40% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.
🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $VATE• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “VATE Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
AUTOMATED RQD QUANT DESK MOVER BRIEFINGFull Market News Desk →
Why VATE Stock dropped -2.36% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash
INNOVATE Corp. (VATE) dropped -2.36% to $5.38, trading at 9% of its 52-week range ($3.75 – $21.3). Stretched risk/reward at current multiples (85% return on capital) under elevated 10-year interest-rate pressure.
- ▸Technical Tape: Trading at 9% of its 52-week range ($3.75 – $21.3) with RSI-14 at 34.7 (NEUTRAL RANGE).
- ▸Volatility Profile: Historical 20-day realized swing band of ±12.5% around $5.38 (no active unusual options sweep snapshot on file).
- ▸Fundamental Anchor: Roarable D- (Sell) backed by 16% gross margin and $146.6M annual free cash flow.
Live VATE Headlines & Catalysts
MARKET WIREYahoo Finance • 1d ago
INNOVATE Completes DBM Global Sale, Targets Debt ReductionYahoo Finance report covering INNOVATE Corp. (VATE) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
RISK WATCHMarketBeat • 1d ago
INNOVATE (NYSE:VATE) Stock Falls 4.3% - What's Next?MarketBeat report covering INNOVATE Corp. (VATE) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
MARKET WIREBenzinga • 1d ago
12 Industrials Stocks Moving In Wednesday's Pre-Market SessionBenzinga report covering INNOVATE Corp. (VATE) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
MARKET WIREhttps://www.siam.in/ • 1d ago
INNOVATE Corp (VATE) Slips 0.18% to $5.60, Holding the Middle of Its $5.32–$5.88 Range - Equal Weight ETFhttps://www.siam.in/ report covering INNOVATE Corp. (VATE) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
MARKET WIREwww.dars.gov.et • 1d ago
INNOVATE Corp. (VATE) Slips 3.22% to $6.01 as Shares Press Toward Lower Support - Collar Tradewww.dars.gov.et report covering INNOVATE Corp. (VATE) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
MARKET WIREMarketBeat • 1d ago
INNOVATE Q3 2026 Earnings Date and EstimatesMarketBeat report covering INNOVATE Corp. (VATE) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk
Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring VATE)
- ✓Walkthrough of VATE's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
- ✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
- ✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks
RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED
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VATE // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -57.90%⚡ TESTING RESISTANCE
2026-11-03O $5.80H $5.80L $5.38C $5.38VOL 132.5K
RES: $6.07SUP: $2.48SMA50: $6.94SMA200: $8.94
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK
VATE Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure
Share Count & Dilution Monitor
Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).
Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle
8.0%/yr Implied 5Y Growth
vs. +12.5% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).
Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger
No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on VATE today. View full Setup Ledger →
🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections
Open Graph →
No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for VATE. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.
AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for VATE today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK
📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (VATE)
Industrials Rank #335 of 486
⚔️ AIOS vs VATE Full Matrix →
1. Head-to-Head Industrials Peer Comparison (VATE vs. AIOS, ZKIN, ZJK, TPCS)
Industry: Metal Fabrications (47 Tracked Issuers)Across 486 tracked Industrials securities in the Roarable RQD universe, INNOVATE Corp. (VATE) ranks #335 by composite RQD confidence (41/100, grade D-) and #388 by equity capitalization ($75.2M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, VATE leads on earnings valuation at N/A trailing P/E, while VATE leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 85.0% ROIC and 16.0% gross margin. ZJK currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 61/100 (C-) compared with VATE at 41/100 (D-).
| Ticker / Company | Roarable Grade | RQD Score | Trailing P/E | Gross Margin | ROIC | 1D Change | Market Cap | Head-to-Head |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VATE
ACTIVE
INNOVATE Corp. | D- | 41/100 | — | 16.0% | 85.0% | -2.36% | $75.2M | Benchmark Subject |
| AIOS AIOS Tech Inc. (Class A) | D- | 42/100 | — | 72.0% | 29.9% | +4.43% | $74.5M | /aios-vs-vate → |
| ZKIN ZK International Group Co. Ltd Ordinary Share | D- | 42/100 | — | 5.7% | — | +10.71% | $80.2M | /zkin-vs-vate → |
| ZJK ZJK Industrial Co. Ltd. (Class A) | C- | 61/100 | — | 43.7% | 25.7% | +5.80% | $88.8M | /zjk-vs-vate → |
| TPCS TechPrecision Corporation | E | 29/100 | — | 15.7% | -10.6% | -0.93% | $54.2M | /tpcs-vs-vate → |
2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)
SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001006837 ↗In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), INNOVATE Corp. (VATE) reported GAAP revenue of $1.25B (+12.5% vs. FY2024 revenue of $1.11B , and -12.4% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of -$60.6M, operating cash flow of $146.6M, and free cash flow of $146.6M (+1580.8% YoY). On the balance sheet, VATE closed FY2025 with $950.1M in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 0.20, Piotroski F-Score: 4/9).
| Fiscal Period | Filing Date | Revenue | Net Income | Operating Cash Flow | Free Cash Flow | Total Assets | Total Debt |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY2025 (FY) | 2025-12-31 | $1.25B | -$60.6M | $146.6M | $146.6M | $950.1M | — |
| FY2024 (FY) | 2024-12-31 | $1.11B | -$34.6M | $9.1M | -$9.9M | $891.1M | — |
| FY2023 (FY) | 2023-12-31 | $1.42B | -$35.2M | $26.5M | $26.5M | — | — |
3. VATE Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)
✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLEDIs VATE stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
As of 2026-11-03, INNOVATE Corp. (NYSE: VATE) is rated D- (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 41/100 at a spot price of $5.38 (-2.36% 1D, market cap $75.2M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 15/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 3/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 8/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 6/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 9/20. Across 486 tracked Industrials issuers, VATE ranks #335 in composite RQD confidence.
How does VATE compare to AIOS and ZKIN in the Industrials sector?
Within the Industrials sector (Metal Fabrications), VATE carries a Roarable D- (41/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of 16.0%, and ROIC of 85.0%. By comparison, AIOS (AIOS Tech Inc. (Class A)) holds a D- grade (42/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC 29.9%, cap $74.5M) and ZKIN (ZK International Group Co. Ltd Ordinary Share) posts a D- grade (42/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC —, cap $80.2M). Among the 5-stock peer group, VATE leads on earnings multiple (N/A) while VATE leads on capital efficiency (85.0% ROIC).
What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for VATE?
Per VATE's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001006837), INNOVATE Corp. generated $1.25B in revenue (+12.5% YoY), -$60.6M in net income, and $146.6M in free cash flow against $950.1M in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Strong cash generator (16.0% gross margin)—profits are backed by real money, not accounting tricks. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.
Where is VATE trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?
VATE last traded at $5.38 (-2.36% on volume of 76,899 shares), positioning the stock -22.48% below its 50-day simple moving average ($6.94) and -39.82% below its 200-day simple moving average ($8.94). Across its 52-week range of $3.75 to $21.30, VATE sits at the 9.3% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 34.7 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±12.5% ($4.71 to $6.05).
ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 41/100 (D-)
✓ SEC XBRL & RQD VERIFIED
VATE — INNOVATE Corp.: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor
Methodology: RQD v6.2 Deterministic 5-Pillar & SEC XBRL Audit
Updated: 2025-12-31
1. Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor
INNOVATE Corp. (VATE) earns a live Roarable RQD composite score of 41/100, corresponding to a D- letter grade (Roarable Sell) at a spot price of $5.38 (-2.36% 1D, market capitalization $75.2M).
- Fundamental Cash Engine (15/20): Anchored by return on invested capital (ROIC) of 85.0%, gross margin of 16.0%, operating margin of 2.3%, and free cash flow yield of —.
- Whale 13F & Options Flow (3/20) + Insider Conviction (9/20): Tracks institutional 13F accumulation, CBOE options call/put positioning, and SEC Form 4 / Congressional PTR filings.
- Macro Regime Fit (6/20) + Forensic Balance Sheet (8/20): Incorporates a 1.00x equity beta, Altman Z-Score of 0.20, Piotroski F-Score of 4/9, and Debt/Equity of N/A.
2. Business Model, Unit Margins & SEC Financial Trajectory
. (VATE) is a NYSE-listed issuer in the Industrials sector, operating in the Metal Fabrications industry..3%, and net margin is -4.9%.
In its latest audited SEC EDGAR 10-K filing for FY2025 (filed 2025-12-31), INNOVATE Corp. (VATE) reported $1.25B in annual revenue (up from $1.11B in FY2024, +12.5% YoY) and -$60.6M in GAAP net income. Over the multi-year SEC filing window from FY2023 ($1.42B revenue, -$35.2M net income) through FY2025, VATE scaled operating cash flow to $146.6M and free cash flow to $146.6M, backed by $950.1M in total assets against $0 in total debt.
3. Institutional Bull vs. Bear Thesis & Valuation Tradeoff
- 🐂 Primary Bull Case (D- • RQD 41/100): Strong cash generator (16.0% gross margin)—profits are backed by real money, not accounting tricks. Free cash flow yield of — and institutional whale pillar of 3/20. With Fundamental Cash Engine at 15/20 and Institutional Whale Flow at 3/20, sustained execution supports upside toward the upper end of the $3.75 – $21.30 52-week range.
- 🐻 Primary Bear Case & Valuation Risk: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. Investors must weigh current valuation against 2.3% operating margins and a 1.00x macro beta.
4. 2nd-Order Butterfly Ripples & Key Questions to Watch
No upstream or downstream dependencies, sector correlations, or proprietary signals are recorded. — for upstream/downstream dependency mapping.
- Key Question #1: Can VATE sustain or expand its 2.3% operating margin and 85.0% ROIC against Metal Fabrications peers over the next 4 quarters?
- Key Question #2: Following FY2025 revenue of $1.25B and free cash flow of $146.6M, how will capital allocation balance growth reinvestment against $0 in total debt?
- Key Question #3: How sensitive is VATE's equity valuation to Industrials capital spending cycles and macro interest-rate shifts (Beta 1.00x)?
VATE Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire
Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for INNOVATE Corp. (VATE) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below
🟡 MARKET WIRE Yahoo Finance • 23h ago
INNOVATE Completes Sale of DBM Global to IES Holdings Yahoo Finance report covering INNOVATE Corp. (VATE) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
🟡 MARKET WIRE Yahoo Finance • 1d ago
INNOVATE Completes DBM Global Sale, Targets Debt Reduction Yahoo Finance report covering INNOVATE Corp. (VATE) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
🔴 RISK WATCH MarketBeat • 1d ago
INNOVATE (NYSE:VATE) Stock Falls 4.3% - What's Next? MarketBeat report covering INNOVATE Corp. (VATE) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
🟡 MARKET WIRE Benzinga • 1d ago
12 Industrials Stocks Moving In Wednesday's Pre-Market Session Benzinga report covering INNOVATE Corp. (VATE) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
🟡 MARKET WIRE https://www.siam.in/ • 1d ago
INNOVATE Corp (VATE) Slips 0.18% to $5.60, Holding the Middle of Its $5.32–$5.88 Range - Equal Weight ETF https://www.siam.in/ report covering INNOVATE Corp. (VATE) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
🟡 MARKET WIRE www.dars.gov.et • 1d ago
INNOVATE Corp. (VATE) Slips 3.22% to $6.01 as Shares Press Toward Lower Support - Collar Trade www.dars.gov.et report covering INNOVATE Corp. (VATE) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
🟡 MARKET WIRE MarketBeat • 1d ago
INNOVATE Q3 2026 Earnings Date and Estimates MarketBeat report covering INNOVATE Corp. (VATE) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE
3 Active Posts & Replies
VATE Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $5.38?
🐂 67% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON VATE 🐻 33% BEARISH CONVICTION
AL AlphaFlow_Cap RQD DEBATE OPENER • Verified $100K Arena Trader 🐂 BULLISH
🎯 Target: $6.67 (+21.1%)
📌 Pinned Debate ROIC of 85% indicates the business generates high returns on its invested capital, and FY 2025 free cash flow of $146.6M shows the oper
ROIC of 85% indicates the business generates high returns on its invested capital, and FY 2025 free cash flow of $146.6M shows the operations can produce cash when they convert.. When you look under the hood at VATE, Fundamental Cash Engine is 15/20 with 16.0% gross margins and 85.0% ROIC. Bears are staring in the rearview mirror while institutional 13F flow (3/20) has been quietly accumulating below $21.30. My 12M target is $6.67.
ArenaChamp_24 🐂 BULL
@ShortSeller_Dan Fair point on current EV/EBITDA multiples, but you're ignoring the forward operating leverage in Metal Fabrications. If gross margin (16.0%) holds, EPS grows into the multiple faster than bears think.
SH ShortSeller_Dan RQD DEBATE OPENER • Forensic Short Bias 🐻 BEARISH
🎯 Target: $4.74 (-14.0%)
Spot @ $5.51 An Altman Z-Score of 0.2, a Piotroski F-Score of 4/9, and net losses in every reported period point to a fragile balance sheet and a bu
An Altman Z-Score of 0.2, a Piotroski F-Score of 4/9, and net losses in every reported period point to a fragile balance sheet and a business not yet converting its returns into sustained earnings.. Look at the math on VATE: paying current EV/EBITDA multiples for 85.0% ROIC and 2.3% operating margins leaves zero margin of safety if Metal Fabrications demand softens. I'd wait for a retest of $4.85 before getting long.