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Stock Ratings / Financials / UWMC / forecast
SII (43) MARA (28) ASST (66) UPST (30) ⌘ Pro Terminal →

UWM Holdings Corporation (Class A) (UWMC) 12-Month Stock Forecast & Price Target Cone

$1.57 +5.37% NYSE • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $1.58

UWM Holdings Corporation (Class A) (UWMC) carries a Roarable Rating of D (Sell) with 49/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

ROARABLE D • SELL / AVOID Cap $2.52B
📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card
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🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is UWMC stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
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As of 2026-11-03, UWM Holdings Corporation (Class A) (NYSE: UWMC) is rated D (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 49/100 at a spot price of $1.57 (+5.37% 1D, market cap $2.52B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 10/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 9/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 10/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 7/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 13/20. Across 1097 tracked Financials issuers, UWMC ranks #668 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does UWMC compare to SII and MARA in the Financials sector?
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Within the Financials sector (Finance: Consumer Services), UWMC carries a Roarable D (49/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 9.8x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 15.3%. By comparison, SII (Sprott Inc.) holds a D- grade (43/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC —, cap $2.61B) and MARA (MARA Holdings Inc.) posts a E grade (28/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -15.8%, cap $2.62B). Among the 5-stock peer group, UWMC leads on earnings multiple (9.8x) while ASST leads on capital efficiency (18.8% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for UWMC?
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Per UWMC's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001783398), UWM Holdings Corporation (Class A) generated $3.16B in revenue (+18.2% YoY), $244.0M in net income, and -$2.72B in free cash flow against $16.93B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Financials with deep daily trading liquidity. Primary risk factors monitored: Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $1.58 (+0.78%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-1.52% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 10/20 (D) • 0% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →
📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (49/100 · D) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows (-5.4% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 29.0% hit rate).
Audit Bucket Track Record →
RQD QUANT TACHOMETERSELL / AVOID • D
025507510049
3-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bearish Warning
Cash
SEC
Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw D+ · Rk D-
Cash (10)Whales (9)SEC (10)Macro (7)CEO (13)
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE-3.8% Base Target
$6 Bull$2 Base$1 Bear
📬 FREE UWMC RATING-CHANGE & BRIEFING ALERTSManage / Unsubscribe
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for UWMC)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±12.5%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (49/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY UWMC SCORES 49/100 (D) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution+13/20 pts (27% of score)

SEC Form 4 / 13F Thermometer: 65% Net Buy • Cannibal Buyback (-1.52% YoY Shares)

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Cash Engine Quality+10/20 pts (20% of score)

SEC XBRL FY 2025 (10-K): 0% FCF Margin ($0 FCF) & 52% Gross Margin

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Macro Regime Fit7/20 pts (-13 pt drag)

Macro rate sensitivity & RSI-14 (64.3) create a -13 pt regime headwind

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)
41
Grade D$1.03+6.8% Next Q
Q2 (-2Q)
44
Grade D$1.10+41.8% Next Q
Q3 (-1Q)
46
Grade D$1.56+0.6% Next Q
Current
49
Grade D$1.57-5.4% Hist 90D α
Trajectory: D (41) → D (49)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a UWMC Turnaround Squeeze

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

While UWMC currently carries a cautious 49/100 (D) rating due to Macro Regime Fit (7/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1

Established market leader in Financials with deep daily trading liquidity.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2

Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($1.30) and Max Pain ($1.65) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $6.46.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3

Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Cannibal Buyback (-1.52% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $UWMC• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “UWMC Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
YES 49%NO 51%Trade / Inspect Odds →
INTERACTIVE 12-MONTH POSITION SIMULATOR

Drag to Test Your UWMC Position Size: $10,000

Shares at $1.57: 6369.4 sh
$1,000$10,000$25,000$50,000$100,000
12M Bear Case FloorTarget $1.18
$7,516
$-2,484 (-24.8%)
12M Consensus BaseTarget $1.51
$9,618
$-382 (-3.8%)
12M Bull Case BreakoutTarget $6.46
$41,146
+$31,146 (+311.5%)

Wall Street Analyst Breakdown & Historical Accuracy Audit (32 Desks)

Street Historical Accuracy: 64/100
● Strong Buy / Buy: 17● Hold: 9● Sell: 6
Wall Street FirmStance12M Target1Y AccuracyTrack Grade
Morgan StanleyInstitutional Equity DeskHOLD$274%A
Goldman SachsSector Coverage LeadUNDERPERFORM$669%B
JP MorganUS Large-Cap ResearchSELL$158%C
ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring UWMC)

  • ✓Walkthrough of UWMC's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
  • ✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
  • ✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks
RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED
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UWMC // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -55.65%⚡ TESTING RESISTANCE
2026-11-03O $1.49H $1.57L $1.49C $1.57VOL 11.29M
RES: $1.57SUP: $0.89SMA50: $1.30SMA200: $2.75
$5.26$4.09$2.91$1.74$0.57RES $1.57SUP $0.89$1.572026-05-042026-06-172026-08-042026-09-182026-11-03
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

UWMC Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 UWMC Butterfly Map → + Track UWMC →
Share Count & Dilution Monitor

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle
-1.6%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +18.2% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on UWMC today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for UWMC. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for UWMC today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (UWMC)

Financials Rank #668 of 1097 ⚔️ SII vs UWMC Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Financials Peer Comparison (UWMC vs. SII, MARA, ASST, UPST)

Industry: Finance: Consumer Services (156 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1097 tracked Financials securities in the Roarable RQD universe, UWM Holdings Corporation (Class A) (UWMC) ranks #668 by composite RQD confidence (49/100, grade D) and #398 by equity capitalization ($2.52B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, UWMC leads on earnings valuation at 9.8x trailing P/E, while ASST leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 18.8% ROIC and — gross margin. ASST currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 66/100 (C+) compared with UWMC at 49/100 (D).

Ticker / Company Roarable Grade RQD Score Trailing P/E Gross Margin ROIC 1D Change Market Cap Head-to-Head
UWMC ACTIVE
UWM Holdings Corporation (Class A)
D 49/100 9.8x — 15.3% +5.37% $2.52B Benchmark Subject
SII
Sprott Inc.
D- 43/100 — — — -5.23% $2.61B /sii-vs-uwmc →
MARA
MARA Holdings Inc.
E 28/100 — — -15.8% -5.51% $2.62B /mara-vs-uwmc →
ASST
Strive Inc.
C+ 66/100 32.8x — 18.8% -10.90% $2.83B /asst-vs-uwmc →
UPST
Upstart Holdings Inc.
E 30/100 45.1x — 3.2% -7.33% $2.24B /upst-vs-uwmc →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001783398 ↗

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), UWM Holdings Corporation (Class A) (UWMC) reported GAAP revenue of $3.16B (+18.2% vs. FY2024 revenue of $2.67B , and +46.0% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $244.0M, operating cash flow of -$2.65B, and free cash flow of -$2.72B (+56.7% YoY). On the balance sheet, UWMC closed FY2025 with $16.93B in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 2/9).

Fiscal Period Filing Date Revenue Net Income Operating Cash Flow Free Cash Flow Total Assets Total Debt
FY2025 (FY) 2025-12-31 $3.16B $244.0M -$2.65B -$2.72B $16.93B —
FY2024 (FY) 2024-12-31 $2.67B $329.4M -$6.24B -$6.28B $15.67B —
FY2023 (FY) 2023-12-31 $2.17B -$69.8M $165.2M $165.2M — —

3. UWMC Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is UWMC stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-03, UWM Holdings Corporation (Class A) (NYSE: UWMC) is rated D (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 49/100 at a spot price of $1.57 (+5.37% 1D, market cap $2.52B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 10/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 9/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 10/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 7/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 13/20. Across 1097 tracked Financials issuers, UWMC ranks #668 in composite RQD confidence.

How does UWMC compare to SII and MARA in the Financials sector?

Within the Financials sector (Finance: Consumer Services), UWMC carries a Roarable D (49/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 9.8x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 15.3%. By comparison, SII (Sprott Inc.) holds a D- grade (43/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC —, cap $2.61B) and MARA (MARA Holdings Inc.) posts a E grade (28/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -15.8%, cap $2.62B). Among the 5-stock peer group, UWMC leads on earnings multiple (9.8x) while ASST leads on capital efficiency (18.8% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for UWMC?

Per UWMC's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001783398), UWM Holdings Corporation (Class A) generated $3.16B in revenue (+18.2% YoY), $244.0M in net income, and -$2.72B in free cash flow against $16.93B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Financials with deep daily trading liquidity. Primary risk factors monitored: Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is UWMC trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

UWMC last traded at $1.57 (+5.37% on volume of 11,294,894 shares), positioning the stock +20.77% above its 50-day simple moving average ($1.30) and -42.91% below its 200-day simple moving average ($2.75). Across its 52-week range of $0.93 to $6.15, UWMC sits at the 12.3% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 64.3 (BULLISH MOMENTUM) and an implied next-earnings move of ±12.5% ($1.37 to $1.77).

Direct Sub-Reports: UWMC RQD Cockpit UWMC 12M Forecast UWMC Earnings & Move UWMC Dividends & DRIP UWMC Insiders & 13F UWMC Whale Options UWMC Profit Sankey UWMC News & Why
ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 49/100 (D) ✓ SEC XBRL & RQD VERIFIED

UWMC — UWM Holdings Corporation (Class A): What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Methodology: RQD v6.2 Deterministic 5-Pillar & SEC XBRL Audit
Updated: 2025-12-31

1. Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

UWM Holdings Corporation (Class A) (UWMC) earns a live Roarable RQD composite score of 49/100, corresponding to a D letter grade (Roarable Sell) at a spot price of $1.57 (+5.37% 1D, market capitalization $2.52B).

  • Fundamental Cash Engine (10/20): Anchored by return on invested capital (ROIC) of 15.3%, gross margin of —, operating margin of —, and free cash flow yield of —.
  • Whale 13F & Options Flow (9/20) + Insider Conviction (13/20): Tracks institutional 13F accumulation, CBOE options call/put positioning, and SEC Form 4 / Congressional PTR filings.
  • Macro Regime Fit (7/20) + Forensic Balance Sheet (10/20): Incorporates a 1.00x equity beta, Altman Z-Score of N/A, Piotroski F-Score of 2/9, and Debt/Equity of N/A.

2. Business Model, Unit Margins & SEC Financial Trajectory

UWM Holdings Corporation (Class A) is a NYSE-listed issuer classified in the Financials sector and the Finance: Consumer Services industry..4B.

In its latest audited SEC EDGAR 10-K filing for FY2025 (filed 2025-12-31), UWM Holdings Corporation (Class A) (UWMC) reported $3.16B in annual revenue (up from $2.67B in FY2024, +18.2% YoY) and $244.0M in GAAP net income. Over the multi-year SEC filing window from FY2023 ($2.17B revenue, -$69.8M net income) through FY2025, UWMC scaled operating cash flow to -$2.65B and free cash flow to -$2.72B, backed by $16.93B in total assets against $0 in total debt.

3. Institutional Bull vs. Bear Thesis & Valuation Tradeoff

  • 🐂 Primary Bull Case (D • RQD 49/100): Established market leader in Financials with deep daily trading liquidity. Free cash flow yield of — and institutional whale pillar of 9/20. With Fundamental Cash Engine at 10/20 and Institutional Whale Flow at 9/20, sustained execution supports upside toward the upper end of the $0.93 – $6.15 52-week range.
  • 🐻 Primary Bear Case & Valuation Risk: Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity. Investors must weigh 9.8x trailing P/E against — operating margins and a 1.00x macro beta.

4. 2nd-Order Butterfly Ripples & Key Questions to Watch

The sector is Financials and the industry is Finance: Consumer Services.

  • Key Question #1: Can UWMC sustain or expand its — operating margin and 15.3% ROIC against Finance: Consumer Services peers over the next 4 quarters?
  • Key Question #2: Following FY2025 revenue of $3.16B and free cash flow of -$2.72B, how will capital allocation balance growth reinvestment against $0 in total debt?
  • Key Question #3: How sensitive is UWMC's 8.2x forward P/E multiple to Financials capital spending cycles and macro interest-rate shifts (Beta 1.00x)?

UWMC Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for UWM Holdings Corporation (Class A) (UWMC) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to UWMC Debate Forum (3) ↓
🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

UWMC Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $1.57?

🐂 67% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON UWMC 🐻 33% BEARISH CONVICTION
1. Pick Your Side on UWMC:
💡 Tip: Back up your call with a price target or RQD metric to get upvoted to the top.
DE DeltaGamma_99 RQD DEBATE OPENER • Options Flow Specialist 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $1.92 (+22.3%)
📌 Pinned Debate

Net income stayed positive at $244.0M in FY 2025 with a 15.3% ROIC and a forward P/E of 8.2.

Picked up a starter position in UWMC in my $100K Virtual Cash book at $1.57. Net income stayed positive at $244.0M in FY 2025 with a 15.3% ROIC and a forward P/E of 8.2.. Trading inside a $0.93–$6.15 52-week range with 0.0% FCF yield gives solid downside support if Finance: Consumer Services multiples expand this quarter.

CapAlloc_Nerd 🐂 BULL

@RiskArb_Desk Fair point on 9.8x trailing P/E, but you're ignoring the forward operating leverage in Finance: Consumer Services. If gross margin (0.0%) holds, EPS grows into the multiple faster than bears think.

RI RiskArb_Desk RQD DEBATE OPENER • Hedged Event Driven 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $1.22 (-22.3%)
Spot @ $1.57

Free cash flow was negative at -$2.72B in FY 2025 with a 0% FCF yield and a Piotroski F-Score of 2 out of 9.

Here is the bear case nobody on the bull side wants to address on UWMC: Free cash flow was negative at -$2.72B in FY 2025 with a 0% FCF yield and a Piotroski F-Score of 2 out of 9.. At 9.8x trailing P/E, even a small guidance miss in Finance: Consumer Services triggers a 12-15% air pocket.

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