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USA Rare Earth Inc. (USAR) Options Positioning, Max Pain & Unusual Sweeps

$8.86 -7.95% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $8.72

USA Rare Earth Inc. (USAR) carries a Roarable Rating of D- (Sell) with 39/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

ROARABLE D- • RED ALERT Cap $3.61B
📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card
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🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is USAR stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
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As of 2026-11-03, USA Rare Earth Inc. (NASDAQ: USAR) is rated D- (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 39/100 at a spot price of $8.86 (-7.95% 1D, market cap $3.61B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 8/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 5/20, Executive Insider Alignment 14/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 7/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 5/20. Across 270 tracked Materials issuers, USAR ranks #197 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does USAR compare to ERO and AUGO in the Materials sector?
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Within the Materials sector (Metal Mining), USAR carries a Roarable D- (39/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of 11.9%, and ROIC of -14.9%. By comparison, ERO (Ero Copper Corp.) holds a D grade (46/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC —, cap $3.03B) and AUGO (Aura Minerals Inc.) posts a D+ grade (52/100 RQD, P/E 32.8x, ROIC 9.9%, cap $5.55B). Among the 5-stock peer group, AUGO leads on earnings multiple (32.8x) while AUGO leads on capital efficiency (9.9% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for USAR?
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Per USAR's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001970622), USA Rare Earth Inc. generated $1.6M in revenue (-96.2% YoY), -$297.6M in net income, and -$49.1M in free cash flow against $695.0M in total assets and $86.3M in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Materials with deep daily trading liquidity.. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
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INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $8.72 (-1.62%)🧬 Dilution Drag (+1.92% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 8/20 (D-) • 0% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →
📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (39/100 · D-) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows (-7.6% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 29.0% hit rate).
Audit Bucket Track Record →
RQD QUANT TACHOMETERRED ALERT • D-
025507510039
2-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bearish Warning
Cash
SEC
Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw E · Rk D+
Cash (8)Whales (5)SEC (14)Macro (7)CEO (5)
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE-8.6% Base Target
$34 Bull$8 Base$6 Bear
📬 FREE USAR RATING-CHANGE & BRIEFING ALERTSManage / Unsubscribe
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for USAR)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±12.5%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (39/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY USAR SCORES 39/100 (D-) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+14/20 pts (36% of score)

Altman Z-Score 11.88 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) • Piotroski F-Score 4/9

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Cash Engine Quality+8/20 pts (21% of score)

SEC XBRL FY 2025 (10-K): 0% FCF Margin ($0 FCF) & 11.9% Gross Margin

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution5/20 pts (-15 pt drag)

Dilution Drag (+1.92% YoY Shares) & executive Form 4 sales trim 15 pts from alignment

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)
47
Grade D$10.32-0.9% Next Q
Q2 (-2Q)
44
Grade D$10.23+2.4% Next Q
Q3 (-1Q)
42
Grade D$10.48-15.5% Next Q
Current
39
Grade D-$8.86-7.6% Hist 90D α
Trajectory: D (47) → D- (39)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a USAR Turnaround Squeeze

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

While USAR currently carries a cautious 39/100 (D-) rating due to Insider Conviction & Share Dilution (5/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1

Established market leader in Materials with deep daily trading liquidity.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2

Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($13.78) and Max Pain ($9.30) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $34.44.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3

Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Dilution Drag (+1.92% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $USAR• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “USAR Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
YES 39%NO 61%Trade / Inspect Odds →
CALL VS. PUT WHALE SHARE
— (No Active Options Snapshot)
Put/Call Ratio: — (No Active Options Snapshot)
MAX-PAIN EXPIRATION MAGNET
— (No Active Options Snapshot)
No active options chain max-pain snapshot on file
HISTORICAL 20D VOLATILITY SWING
±12.5%
Derived from 20D OHLCV bars (No Active Options Snapshot)

Active Strike Call vs. Put Concentration Ladder (USAR)

— (No Active Options Snapshot) — No unusual CBOE strike concentration anomalies recorded in the current database snapshot for USAR.

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Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring USAR)

  • ✓Walkthrough of USAR's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
  • ✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
  • ✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks
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USAR // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -65.36%⚡ TESTING RESISTANCE
2026-11-03O $10.52H $10.52L $8.86C $8.86VOL 15.90M
RES: $10.70SUP: $8.43SMA50: $13.78SMA200: $18.78
$34.48$27.53$20.59$13.65$6.71RES $10.70SUP $8.43$8.862026-05-042026-06-182026-08-052026-09-212026-11-03
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

USAR Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 USAR Butterfly Map → + Track USAR →
Share Count & Dilution Monitor

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle
22.3%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +6.6% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on USAR today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for USAR. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for USAR today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (USAR)

Materials Rank #197 of 270 ⚔️ ERO vs USAR Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Materials Peer Comparison (USAR vs. ERO, AUGO, BVN, MP)

Industry: Metal Mining (41 Tracked Issuers)

Across 270 tracked Materials securities in the Roarable RQD universe, USA Rare Earth Inc. (USAR) ranks #197 by composite RQD confidence (39/100, grade D-) and #87 by equity capitalization ($3.61B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, AUGO leads on earnings valuation at 32.8x trailing P/E, while AUGO leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 9.9% ROIC and — gross margin. AUGO currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 52/100 (D+) compared with USAR at 39/100 (D-).

Ticker / Company Roarable Grade RQD Score Trailing P/E Gross Margin ROIC 1D Change Market Cap Head-to-Head
USAR ACTIVE
USA Rare Earth Inc.
D- 39/100 — 11.9% -14.9% -7.95% $3.61B Benchmark Subject
ERO
Ero Copper Corp.
D 46/100 — — — +0.38% $3.03B /ero-vs-usar →
AUGO
Aura Minerals Inc.
D+ 52/100 32.8x — 9.9% +0.03% $5.55B /augo-vs-usar →
BVN
Buenaventura Mining Company Inc.
D 45/100 — — — +1.63% $6.71B /bvn-vs-usar →
MP
MP Materials Corp.
E 29/100 — — -6.8% -3.08% $7.05B /mp-vs-usar →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2024–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001970622

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), USA Rare Earth Inc. (USAR) reported GAAP revenue of $1.6M (-96.2% vs. FY2024 revenue of $43.6M ) , GAAP net income of -$297.6M, operating cash flow of -$49.0M, and free cash flow of -$49.1M (-277.6% YoY). On the balance sheet, USAR closed FY2025 with $695.0M in total assets against $86.3M in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 11.88, Piotroski F-Score: 4/9).

Fiscal Period Filing Date Revenue Net Income Operating Cash Flow Free Cash Flow Total Assets Total Debt
FY2025 (FY) 2025-12-31 $1.6M -$297.6M -$49.0M -$49.1M $695.0M $86.3M
FY2024 (FY) 2024-12-31 $43.6M -$15.7M -$13.0M -$13.0M $69.1M $6.8M

3. USAR Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is USAR stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-03, USA Rare Earth Inc. (NASDAQ: USAR) is rated D- (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 39/100 at a spot price of $8.86 (-7.95% 1D, market cap $3.61B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 8/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 5/20, Executive Insider Alignment 14/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 7/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 5/20. Across 270 tracked Materials issuers, USAR ranks #197 in composite RQD confidence.

How does USAR compare to ERO and AUGO in the Materials sector?

Within the Materials sector (Metal Mining), USAR carries a Roarable D- (39/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of 11.9%, and ROIC of -14.9%. By comparison, ERO (Ero Copper Corp.) holds a D grade (46/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC —, cap $3.03B) and AUGO (Aura Minerals Inc.) posts a D+ grade (52/100 RQD, P/E 32.8x, ROIC 9.9%, cap $5.55B). Among the 5-stock peer group, AUGO leads on earnings multiple (32.8x) while AUGO leads on capital efficiency (9.9% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for USAR?

Per USAR's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001970622), USA Rare Earth Inc. generated $1.6M in revenue (-96.2% YoY), -$297.6M in net income, and -$49.1M in free cash flow against $695.0M in total assets and $86.3M in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Materials with deep daily trading liquidity.. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is USAR trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

USAR last traded at $8.86 (-7.95% on volume of 10,178,193 shares), positioning the stock -35.70% below its 50-day simple moving average ($13.78) and -52.82% below its 200-day simple moving average ($18.78). Across its 52-week range of $8.89 to $32.80, USAR sits at the 0.0% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 36.4 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±12.5% ($7.75 to $9.97).

Direct Sub-Reports: USAR RQD Cockpit USAR 12M Forecast USAR Earnings & Move USAR Dividends & DRIP USAR Insiders & 13F USAR Whale Options USAR Profit Sankey USAR News & Why
ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 39/100 (D-) ✓ SEC XBRL & RQD VERIFIED

USAR — USA Rare Earth Inc.: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Methodology: RQD v6.2 Deterministic 5-Pillar & SEC XBRL Audit
Updated: 2025-12-31

1. Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

USA Rare Earth Inc. (USAR) earns a live Roarable RQD composite score of 39/100, corresponding to a D- letter grade (Roarable Sell) at a spot price of $8.86 (-7.95% 1D, market capitalization $3.61B).

  • Fundamental Cash Engine (8/20): Anchored by return on invested capital (ROIC) of -14.9%, gross margin of 11.9%, operating margin of -60.0%, and free cash flow yield of -1.24%.
  • Whale 13F & Options Flow (5/20) + Insider Conviction (14/20): Tracks institutional 13F accumulation, CBOE options call/put positioning, and SEC Form 4 / Congressional PTR filings.
  • Macro Regime Fit (7/20) + Forensic Balance Sheet (5/20): Incorporates a 0.91x equity beta, Altman Z-Score of 11.88, Piotroski F-Score of 4/9, and Debt/Equity of 0.16x.

2. Business Model, Unit Margins & SEC Financial Trajectory

. (USAR) is a NASDAQ-listed issuer in the Materials sector, operating within the Metal Mining industry. Per the market data, the company reports a gross margin of 11.9%.

In its latest audited SEC EDGAR 10-K filing for FY2025 (filed 2025-12-31), USA Rare Earth Inc. (USAR) reported $1.6M in annual revenue (up from $43.6M in FY2024, -96.2% YoY) and -$297.6M in GAAP net income. Over the multi-year SEC filing window from FY2024 ($43.6M revenue, -$15.7M net income) through FY2025, USAR scaled operating cash flow to -$49.0M and free cash flow to -$49.1M, backed by $695.0M in total assets against $86.3M in total debt.

3. Institutional Bull vs. Bear Thesis & Valuation Tradeoff

  • 🐂 Primary Bull Case (D- • RQD 39/100): Established market leader in Materials with deep daily trading liquidity. Free cash flow yield of -1.24% and institutional whale pillar of 5/20. With Fundamental Cash Engine at 8/20 and Institutional Whale Flow at 5/20, sustained execution supports upside toward the upper end of the $8.89 – $32.80 52-week range.
  • 🐻 Primary Bear Case & Valuation Risk: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. Investors must weigh current valuation against -60.0% operating margins and a 0.91x macro beta.

4. 2nd-Order Butterfly Ripples & Key Questions to Watch

Supply_chain is NONE, butterfly_links is empty, and proprietary_signals is empty.

  • Key Question #1: Can USAR sustain or expand its -60.0% operating margin and -14.9% ROIC against Metal Mining peers over the next 4 quarters?
  • Key Question #2: Following FY2025 revenue of $1.6M and free cash flow of -$49.1M, how will capital allocation balance growth reinvestment against $86.3M in total debt?
  • Key Question #3: How sensitive is USAR's 29.0x forward P/E multiple to Materials capital spending cycles and macro interest-rate shifts (Beta 0.91x)?

USAR Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for USA Rare Earth Inc. (USAR) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to USAR Debate Forum (3) ↓
🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

USAR Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $8.86?

🐂 67% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON USAR 🐻 33% BEARISH CONVICTION
1. Pick Your Side on USAR:
💡 Tip: Back up your call with a price target or RQD metric to get upvoted to the top.
CA CashFlowKing RQD DEBATE OPENER • FCF Compounder Hunter 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $11.93 (+24.0%)
📌 Pinned Debate

Balance sheet scores 14/20 with Altman Z 11.88 and Debt/Equity 0.16, and cash reached $359.9M in FY 2025.

Here is why I am bullish on USAR here at $9.62: Balance sheet scores 14/20 with Altman Z 11.88 and Debt/Equity 0.16, and cash reached $359.9M in FY 2025.. Compare USAR's -60.0% operating margin and -14.9% ROIC against the rest of Metal Mining. As long as cash conversion holds up, dips toward $9.14 are getting bought.

RetailWhale_TX 🐂 BULL

Both sides have a point here — USAR's 14/20 balance sheet score keeps downside contained, so the real swing factor next earnings call is backlog and FCF conversion.

RE RedlineAuditor RQD DEBATE OPENER • Accounting Quality Watch 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $8.27 (-14.0%)
Spot @ $9.62

ROIC of -14.9%, FCF yield of -1.24%, and net income of -$297.6M in FY 2025 show the cash engine is not yet producing returns.

I respect the product at USA Rare Earth Inc., but the stock at $9.62 is a different story. ROIC of -14.9%, FCF yield of -1.24%, and net income of -$297.6M in FY 2025 show the cash engine is not yet producing returns.. FCF yield is -1.24% and RQD sits at 39/100 (D-) — why pay up here when you can wait for next quarter's numbers?

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