How profitable is Upstart Holdings Inc. (UPST)?

In FY 2025 (10-K), UPST converted $1.0B of revenue into a 52% gross margin, 4.1% operating margin, and $0 in free cash flow (0% FCF margin).

Stock Ratings / Financials / UPST / financials

UWMC (49) CLSK (41) SII (43) MARA (28) ⌘ Pro Terminal →

Upstart Holdings Inc. (UPST) Revenue-to-Profit Sankey Flow & SEC XBRL Financials

$21.31 -7.43% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $20.98

Upstart Holdings Inc. (UPST) carries a Roarable Rating of E (Strong Sell) with 30/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

ROARABLE E • RED ALERT Cap $2.24B

📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card

⚡ INSTANT AI QUANT PREVIEW • $0 FREE TIER Click Any Pre-Computed AI Quant Specialist Briefing on UPST Below — or Connect Your Own ChatGPT / Claude

🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is UPST stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

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As of 2026-11-03, Upstart Holdings Inc. (NASDAQ: UPST) is rated E (Strong Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 30/100 at a spot price of $21.31 (-7.43% 1D, market cap $2.24B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 4/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 5/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 13/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 3/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 5/20. Across 1097 tracked Financials issuers, UPST ranks #1019 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does UPST compare to UWMC and CLSK in the Financials sector?

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Within the Financials sector (Finance: Consumer Services), UPST carries a Roarable E (30/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 45.1x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 3.2%. By comparison, UWMC (UWM Holdings Corporation (Class A)) holds a D grade (49/100 RQD, P/E 9.8x, ROIC 15.3%, cap $2.52B) and CLSK (CleanSpark Inc.) posts a D- grade (41/100 RQD, P/E 5.8x, ROIC 14.5%, cap $1.97B). Among the 5-stock peer group, CLSK leads on earnings multiple (5.8x) while UWMC leads on capital efficiency (15.3% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for UPST?

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Per UPST's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001647639), Upstart Holdings Inc. generated $1.04B in revenue (+64.0% YoY), $53.6M in net income, and -$148.1M in free cash flow against $2.97B in total assets and $979.2M in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Financials with deep daily trading liquidity. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).

INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:

🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray

EXT / AFTER-HRS: $20.98 (-1.53%)🧬 Dilution Drag (+1.92% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 4/20 (E) • 0% FCF Margin

Verify 90D Bucket Audit →

📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (30/100 · E) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows (-9.6% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 29.0% hit rate).

Audit Bucket Track Record →

RQD QUANT TACHOMETERRED ALERT • E

2-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bearish Warning

Cash

SEC

Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw E · Rk D-

Each axis scored 0–20

12M PRICE TARGET CONE-12.6% Base Target

WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for UPST)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±9.7%

Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (30/100 Composite)

🔍 WHY UPST SCORES 30/100 (E) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag

▲ #1 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+13/20 pts (43% of score)

Altman Z-Score 3.80 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) • Piotroski F-Score 5/9

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Whale & Options Positioning+5/20 pts (17% of score)

20D Institutional Volume Accumulation (±9.7% realized swing band)

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Macro Regime Fit4/20 pts (-16 pt drag)

Macro rate sensitivity & RSI-14 (44.1) create a -16 pt regime headwind

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current

Q1 (-3Q)

Grade E$22.74+4% Next Q

Q2 (-2Q)

Grade E$23.66+2% Next Q

Q3 (-1Q)

Grade E$24.14-11.7% Next Q

Current

Grade E$21.31-9.6% Hist 90D α

Trajectory: E (38) → E (30)Full Audit →

⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a UPST Turnaround Squeeze

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

While UPST currently carries a cautious 30/100 (E) rating due to Macro Regime Fit (4/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1

Established market leader in Financials with deep daily trading liquidity.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2

Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($24.97) and Max Pain ($22.38) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $54.71.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3

Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Dilution Drag (+1.92% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $UPST• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite

Contract: “UPST Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”

YES 30%NO 70%Trade / Inspect Odds →

VISUAL REVENUE-TO-PROFIT SANKEY WATERFALL • FY 2025 (10-K)

How UPST Turns Every Dollar of Sales Into Real Bottom-Line Profit

Free Cash Flow:$0 (0% FCF Margin)

Multi-Year SEC EDGAR XBRL Revenue, Net Profit & Free Cash Flow Trajectory

■ Revenue■ Net Profit■ Free Cash Flow

FY23

Rev $513.6M

FY24

Rev $636.5M

FY25

Rev $1.04B

Fiscal Year	Revenue	Gross Margin	Op Margin	Net Profit	Free Cash Flow	ROIC %
FY 2025	$1.04B	52%	4.1%	$53.6M	-$148.1M	3%
FY 2024	$636.5M	52%	-27.2%	-$128.6M	$185.5M	-21.8%
FY 2023	$513.6M	52%	-50%	-$240.1M	-$134.8M	-25.2%

ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring UPST)

✓Walkthrough of UPST's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks

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UPST // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -33.57%🛡️ HOLDING TREND SUPPORT

2026-11-03O $24.84H $24.84L $21.31C $21.31VOL 4.28M

RES: $25.95SUP: $20.74SMA50: $24.97SMA200: $29.54

PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

UPST Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 UPST Butterfly Map → + Track UPST →

Share Count & Dilution Monitor

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle

33.6%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +64.0% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on UPST today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for UPST. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video

🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for UPST today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →

DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (UPST)

Financials Rank #1019 of 1097 ⚔️ UWMC vs UPST Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Financials Peer Comparison (UPST vs. UWMC, CLSK, SII, MARA)

Industry: Finance: Consumer Services (156 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1097 tracked Financials securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Upstart Holdings Inc. (UPST) ranks #1019 by composite RQD confidence (30/100, grade E) and #412 by equity capitalization ($2.24B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, CLSK leads on earnings valuation at 5.8x trailing P/E, while UWMC leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 15.3% ROIC and — gross margin. UWMC currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 49/100 (D) compared with UPST at 30/100 (E).

Ticker / Company	Roarable Grade	RQD Score	Trailing P/E	Gross Margin	ROIC	1D Change	Market Cap	Head-to-Head
UPST ACTIVE Upstart Holdings Inc.	E	30/100	45.1x	—	3.2%	-7.43%	$2.24B	Benchmark Subject
UWMC UWM Holdings Corporation (Class A)	D	49/100	9.8x	—	15.3%	0.00%	$2.52B	/uwmc-vs-upst →
CLSK CleanSpark Inc.	D-	41/100	5.8x	—	14.5%	-6.78%	$1.97B	/clsk-vs-upst →
SII Sprott Inc.	D-	43/100	—	—	—	+1.17%	$2.61B	/sii-vs-upst →
MARA MARA Holdings Inc.	E	28/100	—	—	-15.8%	-5.02%	$2.62B	/mara-vs-upst →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001647639 ↗

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Upstart Holdings Inc. (UPST) reported GAAP revenue of $1.04B (+64.0% vs. FY2024 revenue of $636.5M , and +103.3% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $53.6M, operating cash flow of -$147.7M, and free cash flow of -$148.1M (-179.8% YoY). On the balance sheet, UPST closed FY2025 with $2.97B in total assets against $979.2M in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 5/9).

Fiscal Period	Filing Date	Revenue	Net Income	Operating Cash Flow	Free Cash Flow	Total Assets	Total Debt
FY2025 (FY)	2025-12-31	$1.04B	$53.6M	-$147.7M	-$148.1M	$2.97B	$979.2M
FY2024 (FY)	2024-12-31	$636.5M	-$128.6M	$186.3M	$185.5M	$2.37B	$780.2M
FY2023 (FY)	2023-12-31	$513.6M	-$240.1M	-$111.7M	-$134.8M	$1.33B	$311.1M

3. UPST Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is UPST stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

How does UPST compare to UWMC and CLSK in the Financials sector?

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for UPST?

Where is UPST trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

UPST last traded at $21.31 (-7.43% on volume of 12,312,103 shares), positioning the stock -14.66% below its 50-day simple moving average ($24.97) and -27.86% below its 200-day simple moving average ($29.54). Across its 52-week range of $22.21 to $52.10, UPST sits at the 0.0% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 44.1 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±9.7% ($19.24 to $23.38).

Direct Sub-Reports: UPST RQD Cockpit UPST 12M Forecast UPST Earnings & Move UPST Dividends & DRIP UPST Insiders & 13F UPST Whale Options UPST Profit Sankey UPST News & Why

ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 30/100 (E) ✓ SEC XBRL & RQD VERIFIED

UPST — Upstart Holdings Inc.: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Methodology: RQD v6.2 Deterministic 5-Pillar & SEC XBRL Audit

Updated: 2025-12-31

1. Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

Upstart Holdings Inc. (UPST) earns a live Roarable RQD composite score of 30/100, corresponding to a E letter grade (Roarable Strong Sell) at a spot price of $21.31 (-7.43% 1D, market capitalization $2.24B).

Fundamental Cash Engine (4/20): Anchored by return on invested capital (ROIC) of 3.2%, gross margin of —, operating margin of 4.1%, and free cash flow yield of -6.13%.
Whale 13F & Options Flow (5/20) + Insider Conviction (5/20): Tracks institutional 13F accumulation, CBOE options call/put positioning, and SEC Form 4 / Congressional PTR filings.
Macro Regime Fit (3/20) + Forensic Balance Sheet (13/20): Incorporates a 0.92x equity beta, Altman Z-Score of N/A, Piotroski F-Score of 5/9, and Debt/Equity of N/A.

2. Business Model, Unit Margins & SEC Financial Trajectory

Upstart Holdings Inc. Is a NASDAQ-listed issuer in the Financials sector, operating in the Finance: Consumer Services industry. The market capitalization is $2.4B.

In its latest audited SEC EDGAR 10-K filing for FY2025 (filed 2025-12-31), Upstart Holdings Inc. (UPST) reported $1.04B in annual revenue (up from $636.5M in FY2024, +64.0% YoY) and $53.6M in GAAP net income. Over the multi-year SEC filing window from FY2023 ($513.6M revenue, -$240.1M net income) through FY2025, UPST scaled operating cash flow to -$147.7M and free cash flow to -$148.1M, backed by $2.97B in total assets against $979.2M in total debt.

3. Institutional Bull vs. Bear Thesis & Valuation Tradeoff

🐂 Primary Bull Case (E • RQD 30/100): Established market leader in Financials with deep daily trading liquidity. Free cash flow yield of -6.13% and institutional whale pillar of 5/20. With Fundamental Cash Engine at 4/20 and Institutional Whale Flow at 5/20, sustained execution supports upside toward the upper end of the $22.21 – $52.10 52-week range.
🐻 Primary Bear Case & Valuation Risk: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. Investors must weigh 45.1x trailing P/E and 62.4x EV/EBITDA against 4.1% operating margins and a 0.92x macro beta.

4. 2nd-Order Butterfly Ripples & Key Questions to Watch

Source data therefore identifies no upstream or downstream dependencies. The only sector context provided is Financials / Finance: Consumer Services and a beta of 0.92 per the market data. Investors should note that the absence of mapped links means second-order ripples cannot be assessed from the supplied sources.

Key Question #1: Can UPST sustain or expand its 4.1% operating margin and 3.2% ROIC against Finance: Consumer Services peers over the next 4 quarters?
Key Question #2: Following FY2025 revenue of $1.04B and free cash flow of -$148.1M, how will capital allocation balance growth reinvestment against $979.2M in total debt?
Key Question #3: How sensitive is UPST's 37.9x forward P/E multiple to Financials capital spending cycles and macro interest-rate shifts (Beta 0.92x)?

UPST Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for Upstart Holdings Inc. (UPST) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to UPST Debate Forum (3) ↓

🟡 MARKET WIRE Yahoo Finance • 21h ago

Is Upstart Stock a Buy, Sell, or Hold At Its New 52-Week Low?

Yahoo Finance report covering Upstart Holdings Inc. (UPST) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟢 CATALYST Seeking Alpha • 1d ago

Upstart: Cheaper, Not Safer (Rating Upgrade) (NASDAQ:UPST)

Seeking Alpha report covering Upstart Holdings Inc. (UPST) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟢 CATALYST 24/7 Wall St. • 1d ago

Upstart Jumps 6% as Its Own Macro Index Ticks Down; Synchrony Financial Holds Flat, OneMain Holdings Barely Budges

24/7 Wall St. report covering Upstart Holdings Inc. (UPST) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE Yahoo Finance • 1d ago

Upstart Holdings, Inc. (UPST) Sees a More Significant Dip Than Broader Market: Some Facts to Know

Yahoo Finance report covering Upstart Holdings Inc. (UPST) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE The Motley Fool • 1d ago

How to Buy Upstart Stock (UPST) in 2026

The Motley Fool report covering Upstart Holdings Inc. (UPST) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟢 CATALYST Yahoo Finance • 1d ago

Upstart Holdings, Inc. (UPST) Stock Dips While Market Gains: Key Facts

Yahoo Finance report covering Upstart Holdings Inc. (UPST) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE Yahoo Finance • 1d ago

Yahoo Finance report covering Upstart Holdings Inc. (UPST) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE Yahoo • 1d ago

Earnings to watch: Upstart (UPST) reports Q3 results tomorrow

AI lending platform Upstart (NASDAQ:UPST) will be reporting results this Tuesday morning. Here’s what to expect.

Read Full Source ↗

🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

UPST Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $21.31?

🐂 67% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON UPST 🐻 33% BEARISH CONVICTION

DE DeltaGamma_99 RQD DEBATE OPENER • Options Flow Specialist 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $29.93 (+30.0%)

📌 Pinned Debate

Operating income swung to $42.6M in FY 2025 from a -$172.9M loss in FY 2024, and the Forensic Balance Sheet pillar scores 13/20 with Al

Here is why I am bullish on UPST here at $23.02: Operating income swung to $42.6M in FY 2025 from a -$172.9M loss in FY 2024, and the Forensic Balance Sheet pillar scores 13/20 with Altman Z 2.5.. Compare UPST's 4.1% operating margin and 3.2% ROIC against the rest of Finance: Consumer Services. As long as cash conversion holds up, dips toward $21.87 are getting bought.

EarningsSniper 🐂 BULL

Both sides have a point here — UPST's 13/20 balance sheet score keeps downside contained, so the real swing factor next earnings call is backlog and FCF conversion.

ME MeanReversion_88 RQD DEBATE OPENER • Quantitative Statistical Arb 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $17.73 (-23.0%)

Spot @ $23.02

Free cash flow was -$148.1M in FY 2025, the FCF yield is -6.13%, and the stock trades at 45.1x trailing P/E and 62.4x EV/EBITDA with RO

Careful chasing UPST at $23.02. Free cash flow was -$148.1M in FY 2025, the FCF yield is -6.13%, and the stock trades at 45.1x trailing P/E and 62.4x EV/EBITDA with ROIC of only 3.2%.. Gross margin is 0.0%, but operating margin is 4.1%, which shows SG&A and reinvestment are eating into bottom-line EPS. Target $17.73 on multiple compression.