What is UGP's 12-month stock price target?

Ultrapar Participacoes S.A. (Each representing one Common Share) (UGP) carries a 12-month consensus base price target of $5.44 (-4.6% from $5.70), with a bull-case target of $8.69 and a bear-case floor of $4.24.

Stock Ratings / Energy / UGP / forecast

NFG (58) NJR (71) SR (44) OGS (50) ⌘ Pro Terminal →

Ultrapar Participacoes S.A. (Each representing one Common Share) (UGP) 12-Month Stock Forecast & Price Target Cone

Q: Is UGP stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now?

Roarable's 5-Pillar RQD Quant Engine rates UGP D (Sell — SELL) with an RQD Confidence score of 48/100.

$5.70 -1.89% NYSE • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $5.67

Ultrapar Participacoes S.A. (Each representing one Common Share) (UGP) carries a Roarable Rating of D (Sell) with 48/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (48/100 · D) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows →

ROARABLE D • SELL / AVOID Cap $6.47B

📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card

⚡ INSTANT AI QUANT PREVIEW • $0 FREE TIER Click Any Pre-Computed AI Quant Specialist Briefing on UGP Below — or Connect Your Own ChatGPT / Claude

🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is UGP stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

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As of 2026-11-03, Ultrapar Participacoes S.A. (Each representing one Common Share) (NYSE: UGP) is rated D (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 48/100 at a spot price of $5.70 (-1.89% 1D, market cap $6.47B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 12/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 6/20, Executive Insider Alignment 13/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 8/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 9/20. Across 211 tracked Energy issuers, UGP ranks #140 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does UGP compare to NFG and NJR in the Energy sector?

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Within the Energy sector (Oil/Gas Transmission), UGP carries a Roarable D (48/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of —, and ROIC of —. By comparison, NFG (National Fuel Gas Company) holds a D+ grade (58/100 RQD, P/E 14.5x, ROIC 9.7%, cap $7.56B) and NJR (NewJersey Resources Corporation) posts a B- grade (71/100 RQD, P/E 16.1x, ROIC 16.3%, cap $5.40B). Among the 5-stock peer group, NFG leads on earnings multiple (14.5x) while NJR leads on capital efficiency (16.3% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for UGP?

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For Ultrapar Participacoes S.A. (Each representing one Common Share) (UGP), key quantitative strengths include Established market leader in Energy with deep daily trading liquidity. and sector rank #140 in Energy, while primary risk factors center on Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. and Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).

INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:

🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray

EXT / AFTER-HRS: $5.67 (-0.53%)🧬 Disciplined Float (-0.40% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 12/20 (C-) • 4.5% FCF Margin

Verify 90D Bucket Audit →

📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (48/100 · D) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows (-5.6% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 29.0% hit rate).

Audit Bucket Track Record →

RQD QUANT TACHOMETERSELL / AVOID • D

JEV AI Jury Split (Battleground)

Cash

SEC

Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw D · Rk D+

Each axis scored 0–20

12M PRICE TARGET CONE-4.6% Base Target

WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for UGP)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±7.2%

Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (48/100 Composite)

🔍 WHY UGP SCORES 48/100 (D) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag

▲ #1 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+13/20 pts (27% of score)

Altman Z-Score 3.80 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) • Piotroski F-Score 7/9

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Cash Engine Quality+12/20 pts (25% of score)

SEC XBRL Trailing 12 Months: 4.5% FCF Margin ($181.0M FCF) & 52% Gross Margin

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Whale & Options Positioning6/20 pts (-14 pt drag)

Put hedging (50% put share) caps near-term gamma upside (-14 pts vs max)

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current

Q1 (-3Q)

Grade C$7.79+1.9% Next Q

Q2 (-2Q)

Grade C-$7.94-19.4% Next Q

Q3 (-1Q)

Grade C-$6.40-10.9% Next Q

Current

Grade D$5.70-5.6% Hist 90D α

Trajectory: C (56) → D (48)Full Audit →

⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a UGP Turnaround Squeeze

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

While UGP currently carries a cautious 48/100 (D) rating due to Whale & Options Positioning (6/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1

Established market leader in Energy with deep daily trading liquidity.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2

Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($7.25) and Max Pain ($5.99) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $8.69.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3

Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Disciplined Float (-0.40% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $UGP• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite

Contract: “UGP Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Upcoming Quarter) & Holds Above 200D SMA”

YES 48%NO 52%Trade / Inspect Odds →

INTERACTIVE 12-MONTH POSITION SIMULATOR

Drag to Test Your UGP Position Size: $10,000

Shares at $5.70: 1754.4 sh

$1,000$10,000$25,000$50,000$100,000

12M Bear Case FloorTarget $4.24

$7,439

$-2,561 (-25.6%)

12M Consensus BaseTarget $5.44

$9,544

$-456 (-4.6%)

12M Bull Case BreakoutTarget $8.69

$15,246

+$5,246 (+52.5%)

Wall Street Analyst Breakdown & Historical Accuracy Audit (32 Desks)

Street Historical Accuracy: 64/100

● Strong Buy / Buy: 17● Hold: 9● Sell: 6

Wall Street Firm	Stance	12M Target	1Y Accuracy	Track Grade
Morgan StanleyInstitutional Equity Desk	HOLD	$6	74%	A
Goldman SachsSector Coverage Lead	UNDERPERFORM	$8	69%	B
JP MorganUS Large-Cap Research	SELL	$5	58%	C

ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring UGP)

✓Walkthrough of UGP's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks

RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED

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UGP // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -4.68%▼ SUPPORT BREAKDOWN

2026-11-03O $5.97H $5.97L $5.70C $5.70VOL 3.78M

RES: $9.07SUP: $7.65SMA50: $7.25SMA200: $5.94

PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

UGP Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 UGP Butterfly Map → + Track UGP →

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)

8.0%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +6.0% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on UGP today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for UGP. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video

🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for UGP today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →

DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (UGP)

Energy Rank #140 of 211 ⚔️ NFG vs UGP Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Energy Peer Comparison (UGP vs. NFG, NJR, SR, OGS)

Industry: Oil/Gas Transmission (13 Tracked Issuers)

Across 211 tracked Energy securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Ultrapar Participacoes S.A. (Each representing one Common Share) (UGP) ranks #140 by composite RQD confidence (48/100, grade D) and #74 by equity capitalization ($6.47B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, NFG leads on earnings valuation at 14.5x trailing P/E, while NJR leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 16.3% ROIC and — gross margin. NJR currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 71/100 (B-) compared with UGP at 48/100 (D).

Ticker / Company	Roarable Grade	RQD Score	Trailing P/E	Gross Margin	ROIC	1D Change	Market Cap	Head-to-Head
UGP ACTIVE Ultrapar Participacoes S.A. (Each representing one Common Share)	D	48/100	—	—	—	-1.89%	$6.47B	Benchmark Subject
NFG National Fuel Gas Company	D+	58/100	14.5x	90.4%	9.7%	+0.15%	$7.56B	/nfg-vs-ugp →
NJR NewJersey Resources Corporation	B-	71/100	16.1x	—	16.3%	+1.82%	$5.40B	/njr-vs-ugp →
SR Spire Inc.	D	44/100	18.9x	58.8%	5.3%	+0.99%	$5.20B	/sr-vs-ugp →
OGS ONE Gas Inc.	D	50/100	18.6x	—	6.2%	+1.78%	$4.94B	/ogs-vs-ugp →

2. UGP Fundamental Profitability, Capital Efficiency & Balance-Sheet Forensics

TRAILING 12M & FORWARD QUANTITATIVE SNAPSHOT

Ultrapar Participacoes S.A. (Each representing one Common Share) (UGP) operates in Oil/Gas Transmission (Energy) with an equity capitalization of $6.47B, trailing P/E of N/A, forward P/E of N/A, and EV/EBITDA of N/A. Operating profitability registers a gross margin of —, operating margin of —, net profit margin of —, ROIC of —, and free cash flow yield of —, alongside an Altman Z-Score of N/A and Piotroski F-Score of N/A.

3. UGP Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is UGP stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

How does UGP compare to NFG and NJR in the Energy sector?

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for UGP?

Where is UGP trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

UGP last traded at $5.70 (-1.89% on volume of 2,908,358 shares), positioning the stock -21.38% below its 50-day simple moving average ($7.25) and -4.04% below its 200-day simple moving average ($5.94). Across its 52-week range of $3.60 to $8.28, UGP sits at the 44.9% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 24.4 (OVERSOLD (<32)) and an implied next-earnings move of ±7.2% ($5.29 to $6.11).

Direct Sub-Reports: UGP RQD Cockpit UGP 12M Forecast UGP Earnings & Move UGP Dividends & DRIP UGP Insiders & 13F UGP Whale Options UGP Profit Sankey UGP News & Why

ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 48/100 (D) ✓ STAGE-C NUMBER FIREWALL VERIFIED

UGP — Ultrapar Participacoes S.A. (Each representing one Common Share): What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Engine: anthropic/claude-haiku-5.5

As of: 2026-11-02T14:10:50Z

1. Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

UGP scores 53 out of 100, earning a D+ grade and the verdict "Roarable Sell — Weak Fundamentals / Trim." The five pillars are:

Fundamental cash engine: 12 / 20. this pillar reflects ROIC of 0% and an FCF yield of 0%. For a prospective investor, the absence of measurable returns on invested capital and free cash flow yield is the single largest drag on the score.
Whale 13F flow: 6 / 20. this pillar covers institutional accumulation and options positioning. The low score indicates limited institutional support signals in the rating's inputs.
Insider conviction: 9 / 20. this pillar covers SEC Form 4 and Congressional PTR cluster flow. The below-midpoint score indicates weak insider-conviction signals.
Macro regime fit: 13 / 20. beta is 1.0 and sector sensitivity is factored in. This is a moderate score, meaning the stock's market sensitivity is neither a major strength nor a major weakness in the rating's framework.
Forensic balance sheet: 13 / 20. Altman Z is 2.5, Piotroski F is 6/9, and Debt/Equity is 0.5. This is the strongest pillar, indicating a moderately sound balance-sheet profile.

Taken together, the pillar pattern suggests the balance sheet is the most defensible element while earnings-generation and ownership-flow signals are the weakest. Upside drivers in this framework would need to come from improved cash generation or stronger institutional and insider conviction; the rating does not show these developing.

2. Business Model, Unit Margins & SEC Financial Trajectory

Ultrapar Participacoes S.A. (Each representing one Common Share) (UGP) is a NYSE-listed operating company in the Oil/Gas Transmission industry (Energy sector) with an equity market capitalization of $6.47B. The business operates with a gross margin of 0%, an operating margin of 0%, and a return on invested capital (ROIC) of 0% (free cash flow yield of 0%). Within the Oil/Gas Transmission peer group, investor evaluation centers on operating leverage, unit margin durability, and capital allocation efficiency across market cycles.

Per the market data, gross, operating, and net margins are each reported as 0%, and ROIC is 0%. The Altman Z-Score is 2.5 and the Piotroski F-Score is 6/9, with Debt/Equity at 0.5. These forensic figures suggest a moderate balance-sheet posture, though the zero margin readings are not explained in the source data and cannot be verified against reported financials. Profitability trend cannot be assessed because no reported periods are provided.

3. Institutional Bull vs. Bear Thesis & Valuation Tradeoff

🐂 Primary Bull Case: The forensic balance sheet pillar scores 13 / 20 with Altman Z of 2.5, Piotroski F of 6/9, and Debt/Equity of 0.5, indicating a moderately sound financial base. With Fundamental Cash Engine at 12/20 (ROIC —, FCF yield —) and Institutional Whale Flow at 6/20, sustained execution supports upside toward the top of the $3.60 – $8.28 52-week range.
🐻 Primary Bear Case: The fundamental cash engine scores 12 / 20 with ROIC at 0% and FCF yield at 0%, showing no measurable return on capital or free cash generation. Investors must weigh current valuation against — operating margins and a 1.00 macro beta if sector demand softens.

4. 2nd-Order Butterfly Ripples & Key Questions to Watch

Upstream and downstream dependencies, sector correlations, and second-order bottlenecks cannot be identified from the source data. —

Key Question #1: Why are margins and ROIC reported as 0%, and do these reflect true zero values or missing data?
Key Question #2: What is the company's current earnings per share and valuation multiple, given that P/E, EV/EBITDA, and EPS are unavailable?
Key Question #3: What is the analyst consensus, price target range, and recent insider or institutional ownership activity?

UGP Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for Ultrapar Participacoes S.A. (Each representing one Common Share) (UGP) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to UGP Debate Forum (3) ↓

🟡 MARKET WIRE Yahoo • 3d ago

UGP or ENB: Which Is the Better Value Stock Right Now?

UGP vs. ENB: Which Stock Is the Better Value Option?

Read Full Source ↗

🟢 CATALYST Yahoo • 3d ago

Should Value Investors Buy Ultrapar Participacoes (UGP) Stock?

Here at Zacks, our focus is on the proven Zacks Rank system, which emphasizes earnings estimates and estimate revisions to find great stocks. Nevertheless, we are always paying attention to the latest value, growth, and

Read Full Source ↗

🟢 CATALYST Yahoo • 5d ago

Ultrapar Participacoes (UGP) Loses 12.8% in 4 Weeks, Here's Why a Trend Reversal May be Around the Corner

The heavy selling pressure might have exhausted for Ultrapar Participacoes (UGP) as it is technically in oversold territory now. In addition to this technical measure, strong agreement among Wall Street analysts in revis

Read Full Source ↗

🟢 CATALYST Yahoo • 6d ago

Down 8.0% in 4 Weeks, Here's Why Ultrapar Participacoes (UGP) Looks Ripe for a Turnaround

Ultrapar Participacoes (UGP) has become technically an oversold stock now, which implies exhaustion of the heavy selling pressure on it. This, combined with strong agreement among Wall Street analysts in revising earning

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE Fintel • 7d ago

Ultrapar Participações S.A. Announces Sale of 7,599,879 Shares by Pátria

Read Full Source ↗

🟢 CATALYST SeekingAlpha • 10d ago

Our Top 10 High Growth Dividend Stocks - October 2026

Discover a proven method to pick high-growth dividend stocks using dividend growth, sustainability, and momentumâsee the top 10 names to buy now.

Read Full Source ↗

🟢 CATALYST Yahoo • 10d ago

3 Reasons Why Growth Investors Shouldn't Overlook Ultrapar Participacoes (UGP)

Ultrapar Participacoes (UGP) could produce exceptional returns because of its solid growth attributes.

Read Full Source ↗

🟢 CATALYST Yahoo • 11d ago

Best Growth Stocks to Buy for October 23rd

UGP, WOOF and MNDY made it to the Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy) growth stocks list on October 23, 2026

Read Full Source ↗

🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

UGP Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $5.70?

🐂 67% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON UGP 🐻 33% BEARISH CONVICTION

TA TapeReader_Pro Price Action & Volume Trader 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $7.44 (+28.1%)

📌 Pinned Debate

The forensic balance sheet pillar scores 13 / 20 with Altman Z of 2.5, Piotroski F of 6/9, and Debt/Equity of 0.5, indicating a moderat

Picked up a starter position in UGP in my $100K Virtual Cash book at $5.81. The forensic balance sheet pillar scores 13 / 20 with Altman Z of 2.5, Piotroski F of 6/9, and Debt/Equity of 0.5, indicating a moderately sound financial base.. Trading inside a $3.60–$8.28 52-week range with 0.0% FCF yield gives solid downside support if Oil/Gas Transmission multiples expand this quarter.

ArenaChamp_24 🐂 BULL

@MeanReversion_88 Fair point on current EV/EBITDA multiples, but you're ignoring the forward operating leverage in Oil/Gas Transmission. If gross margin (0.0%) holds, EPS grows into the multiple faster than bears think.

ME MeanReversion_88 Quantitative Statistical Arb 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $4.94 (-15.0%)

Spot @ $5.81

The fundamental cash engine scores 12 / 20 with ROIC at 0% and FCF yield at 0%, showing no measurable return on capital or free cash ge

The fundamental cash engine scores 12 / 20 with ROIC at 0% and FCF yield at 0%, showing no measurable return on capital or free cash generation.. Look at the math on UGP: paying current EV/EBITDA multiples for 0.0% ROIC and 0.0% operating margins leaves zero margin of safety if Oil/Gas Transmission demand softens. I'd wait for a retest of $5.11 before getting long.