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Why TTD Stock surged +2.12% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash

$12.55 +2.12% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $12.57

The Trade Desk Inc. (TTD) carries a Roarable Rating of C (Hold) with 62/100 RQD Confidence. The composite score sits in the neutral Hold band (59–69), meaning current holders don’t need to panic-sell while prospective buyers can wait for a move into the 70+ Buy zone.

ROARABLE C • HOLD / WATCH Cap $5.81B
📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card
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🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is TTD stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
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As of 2026-11-03, The Trade Desk Inc. (NASDAQ: TTD) is rated C (Hold / HOLD) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 62/100 at a spot price of $12.55 (+2.12% 1D, market cap $5.81B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 14/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 6/20, Executive Insider Alignment 14/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 10/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 18/20. Across 714 tracked Technology issuers, TTD ranks #180 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does TTD compare to NIQ and GDS in the Technology sector?
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Within the Technology sector (Computer Software: Programming Data Processing), TTD carries a Roarable C (62/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 13.9x, gross margin of 78.6%, and ROIC of 13.8%. By comparison, NIQ (NIQ Global Intelligence plc) holds a D grade (48/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC 1.7%, cap $5.85B) and GDS (GDS Holdings Limited ADS) posts a D+ grade (57/100 RQD, P/E 21.7x, ROIC 14.9%, cap $4.39B). Among the 5-stock peer group, TTD leads on earnings multiple (13.9x) while GDS leads on capital efficiency (14.9% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for TTD?
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Per TTD's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001671933), The Trade Desk Inc. generated $2.90B in revenue (+18.5% YoY), $443.3M in net income, and $795.7M in free cash flow against $6.15B in total assets and $1.65B in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction.. Primary risk factors monitored: Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $12.57 (+0.19%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-2.92% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 14/20 (B-) • 27.5% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →
📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 62/100 (C) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (+0.7% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 54.3% hit rate — wait for RQD ≥ 70 breakout).
Audit Bucket Track Record →
RQD QUANT TACHOMETERHOLD / WATCH • C
025507510062
2-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bullish
Cash
SEC
Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw C · Rk C-
Cash (14)Whales (6)SEC (14)Macro (10)CEO (18)
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE+1.8% Base Target
$53 Bull$13 Base$10 Bear
📬 FREE TTD RATING-CHANGE & BRIEFING ALERTSManage / Unsubscribe
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for TTD)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±9.1%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (62/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY TTD SCORES 62/100 (C) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution+18/20 pts (29% of score)

SEC Form 4 / 13F Thermometer: 86% Net Buy • Cannibal Buyback (-2.92% YoY Shares)

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Cash Engine Quality+14/20 pts (23% of score)

SEC XBRL FY 2025 (10-K): 27.5% FCF Margin ($795.7M FCF) & 78.6% Gross Margin

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Whale & Options Positioning6/20 pts (-14 pt drag)

Put hedging (50% put share) caps near-term gamma upside (-14 pts vs max)

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)
54
Grade C-$12.18+3.4% Next Q
Q2 (-2Q)
57
Grade C$12.59+1.4% Next Q
Q3 (-1Q)
59
Grade C$12.76-1.6% Next Q
Current
62
Grade C$12.55+0.7% Hist 90D α
Trajectory: C- (54) → C (62)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the TTD Bull Thesis Could Fail

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

Even with a 62/100 (C) score, TTD faces multiple-compression risk if 13.9x trailing P/E re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1

Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2

Dilution & Margin Drag: Cannibal Buyback (-2.92% YoY Shares) — any gross margin slip below 76.1% triggers an automatic RQD downgrade.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3

Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($13.07) or 200D SMA ($19.73) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($12.78) toward Bear Floor ($9.97).

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $TTD• $4.8M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “TTD Beats Next Quarterly Revenue & EPS Consensus + Hyperscaler AI CapEx Holds Record Pace”
AUTOMATED RQD QUANT DESK MOVER BRIEFINGFull Market News Desk →

Why TTD Stock surged +2.12% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash

The Trade Desk Inc. (TTD) surged +2.12% to $12.55, trading at 2% of its 52-week range ($11.62 – $50.06). Solid 79% profit margin (14% return on capital), mixed timing at 14x P/E—hold if owned, no rush to chase.

  • ▸Technical Tape: Trading at 2% of its 52-week range ($11.62 – $50.06) with RSI-14 at 44.5 (NEUTRAL RANGE).
  • ▸Volatility Profile: Historical 20-day realized swing band of ±9.1% around $12.55 (no active unusual options sweep snapshot on file).
  • ▸Fundamental Anchor: Roarable C (Hold) backed by 78.6% gross margin and $795.7M annual free cash flow.
Live TTD Headlines & Catalysts
ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Quantitative Research Desk

Scheduled RQD Strong Buys & Whale Accumulation Briefing (TTD Tape Review)

  • ✓Breakdown of the highest-scoring RQD Green-Light breakouts across our 5,200+ rated universe
  • ✓Forensic Red-Light accounting & dilution traps to review on your watchlist
  • ✓Includes downloadable .ics calendar invite & nightly RQD rating-change email alerts
RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED
Want Custom AI PineScript / Python Indicators & Priority Rating-Change Alerts?
TTD // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -47.93%▼ DESCENDING CHANNEL
2026-11-03O $13.06H $13.06L $12.29C $12.55VOL 16.41M
RES: $13.83SUP: $11.04SMA50: $13.07SMA200: $19.73
$43.39$34.78$26.17$17.56$8.95RES $13.83SUP $11.04$12.552026-05-042026-06-182026-08-052026-09-212026-11-03
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

TTD Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

Share Count & Dilution Monitor

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle
5.6%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +18.5% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on TTD today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for TTD. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for TTD today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (TTD)

Technology Rank #180 of 714 ⚔️ NIQ vs TTD Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Technology Peer Comparison (TTD vs. NIQ, GDS, BZ, SRAD)

Industry: Computer Software: Programming Data Processing (72 Tracked Issuers)

Across 714 tracked Technology securities in the Roarable RQD universe, The Trade Desk Inc. (TTD) ranks #180 by composite RQD confidence (62/100, grade C) and #196 by equity capitalization ($5.81B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, TTD leads on earnings valuation at 13.9x trailing P/E, while GDS leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 14.9% ROIC and — gross margin. BZ currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 79/100 (B+) compared with TTD at 62/100 (C).

Ticker / Company Roarable Grade RQD Score Trailing P/E Gross Margin ROIC 1D Change Market Cap Head-to-Head
TTD ACTIVE
The Trade Desk Inc.
C 62/100 13.9x 78.6% 13.8% +2.12% $5.81B Benchmark Subject
NIQ
NIQ Global Intelligence plc
D 48/100 — — 1.7% +0.15% $5.85B /niq-vs-ttd →
GDS
GDS Holdings Limited ADS
D+ 57/100 21.7x — 14.9% -0.68% $4.39B /gds-vs-ttd →
BZ
KANZHUN LIMITED American Depository Shares
B+ 79/100 19.6x 85.1% 10.9% +3.14% $7.80B /bz-vs-ttd →
SRAD
Sportradar Group AG (Class A)
D 48/100 — — — +6.98% $3.75B /srad-vs-ttd →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001671933

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), The Trade Desk Inc. (TTD) reported GAAP revenue of $2.90B (+18.5% vs. FY2024 revenue of $2.44B , and +48.8% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $443.3M, operating cash flow of $992.7M, and free cash flow of $795.7M (+24.1% YoY). On the balance sheet, TTD closed FY2025 with $6.15B in total assets against $1.65B in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 2.05, Piotroski F-Score: 9/9).

Fiscal Period Filing Date Revenue Net Income Operating Cash Flow Free Cash Flow Total Assets Total Debt
FY2025 (FY) 2025-12-31 $2.90B $443.3M $992.7M $795.7M $6.15B $1.65B
FY2024 (FY) 2024-12-31 $2.44B $393.1M $739.5M $641.2M $6.11B $1.42B
FY2023 (FY) 2023-12-31 $1.95B $178.9M $598.3M $510.7M $3.40B $794.7M

3. TTD Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is TTD stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-03, The Trade Desk Inc. (NASDAQ: TTD) is rated C (Hold / HOLD) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 62/100 at a spot price of $12.55 (+2.12% 1D, market cap $5.81B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 14/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 6/20, Executive Insider Alignment 14/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 10/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 18/20. Across 714 tracked Technology issuers, TTD ranks #180 in composite RQD confidence.

How does TTD compare to NIQ and GDS in the Technology sector?

Within the Technology sector (Computer Software: Programming Data Processing), TTD carries a Roarable C (62/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 13.9x, gross margin of 78.6%, and ROIC of 13.8%. By comparison, NIQ (NIQ Global Intelligence plc) holds a D grade (48/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC 1.7%, cap $5.85B) and GDS (GDS Holdings Limited ADS) posts a D+ grade (57/100 RQD, P/E 21.7x, ROIC 14.9%, cap $4.39B). Among the 5-stock peer group, TTD leads on earnings multiple (13.9x) while GDS leads on capital efficiency (14.9% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for TTD?

Per TTD's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001671933), The Trade Desk Inc. generated $2.90B in revenue (+18.5% YoY), $443.3M in net income, and $795.7M in free cash flow against $6.15B in total assets and $1.65B in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction.. Primary risk factors monitored: Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is TTD trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

TTD last traded at $12.55 (+2.12% on volume of 11,576,532 shares), positioning the stock -3.98% below its 50-day simple moving average ($13.07) and -36.39% below its 200-day simple moving average ($19.73). Across its 52-week range of $11.62 to $50.06, TTD sits at the 2.4% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 44.5 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±9.1% ($11.41 to $13.69).

ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 62/100 (C) ✓ SEC XBRL & RQD VERIFIED

TTD — The Trade Desk Inc.: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Methodology: RQD v6.2 Deterministic 5-Pillar & SEC XBRL Audit
Updated: 2025-12-31

1. Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

The Trade Desk Inc. (TTD) earns a live Roarable RQD composite score of 62/100, corresponding to a C letter grade (Roarable Hold) at a spot price of $12.55 (+2.12% 1D, market capitalization $5.81B).

  • Fundamental Cash Engine (14/20): Anchored by return on invested capital (ROIC) of 13.8%, gross margin of 78.6%, operating margin of 20.3%, and free cash flow yield of 12.89%.
  • Whale 13F & Options Flow (6/20) + Insider Conviction (14/20): Tracks institutional 13F accumulation, CBOE options call/put positioning, and SEC Form 4 / Congressional PTR filings.
  • Macro Regime Fit (10/20) + Forensic Balance Sheet (18/20): Incorporates a 1.22x equity beta, Altman Z-Score of 2.05, Piotroski F-Score of 9/9, and Debt/Equity of 0.62x.

2. Business Model, Unit Margins & SEC Financial Trajectory

The Trade Desk Inc. (TTD) is a NASDAQ-listed issuer in the Technology sector, operating in the Computer Software: Programming Data Processing industry. It carries a market capitalization of $6.2B.

In its latest audited SEC EDGAR 10-K filing for FY2025 (filed 2025-12-31), The Trade Desk Inc. (TTD) reported $2.90B in annual revenue (up from $2.44B in FY2024, +18.5% YoY) and $443.3M in GAAP net income. Over the multi-year SEC filing window from FY2023 ($1.95B revenue, $178.9M net income) through FY2025, TTD scaled operating cash flow to $992.7M and free cash flow to $795.7M, backed by $6.15B in total assets against $1.65B in total debt.

3. Institutional Bull vs. Bear Thesis & Valuation Tradeoff

  • 🐂 Primary Bull Case (C • RQD 62/100): Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction. Free cash flow yield of 12.89% and institutional whale pillar of 6/20. With Fundamental Cash Engine at 14/20 and Institutional Whale Flow at 6/20, sustained execution supports upside toward the upper end of the $11.62 – $50.06 52-week range.
  • 🐻 Primary Bear Case & Valuation Risk: Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity. Investors must weigh 13.9x trailing P/E and 9.3x EV/EBITDA against 20.3% operating margins and a 1.22x macro beta.

4. 2nd-Order Butterfly Ripples & Key Questions to Watch

The only sector context provided is the Technology sector and Computer Software: Programming Data Processing industry classification.

  • Key Question #1: Can TTD sustain or expand its 20.3% operating margin and 13.8% ROIC against Computer Software: Programming Data Processing peers over the next 4 quarters?
  • Key Question #2: Following FY2025 revenue of $2.90B and free cash flow of $795.7M, how will capital allocation balance growth reinvestment against $1.65B in total debt?
  • Key Question #3: How sensitive is TTD's 11.7x forward P/E multiple to Technology capital spending cycles and macro interest-rate shifts (Beta 1.22x)?

TTD Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for The Trade Desk Inc. (TTD) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to TTD Debate Forum (3) ↓
🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

TTD Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $12.55?

🐂 67% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON TTD 🐻 33% BEARISH CONVICTION
1. Pick Your Side on TTD:
💡 Tip: Back up your call with a price target or RQD metric to get upvoted to the top.
CA CashFlowKing RQD DEBATE OPENER • FCF Compounder Hunter 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $14.26 (+16.0%)
📌 Pinned Debate

Insider Conviction (18/20) and a 12.89% FCF yield support the cash engine at a 13.9 P/E.

Picked up a starter position in TTD in my $100K Virtual Cash book at $12.29. Insider Conviction (18/20) and a 12.89% FCF yield support the cash engine at a 13.9 P/E.. Trading inside a $11.62–$48.47 52-week range with 12.89% FCF yield gives solid downside support if Computer Software: Programming Data Processing multiples expand this quarter.

ArenaChamp_24 🐂 BULL

@RiskArb_Desk Fair point on 13.9x trailing P/E, but you're ignoring the forward operating leverage in Computer Software: Programming Data Processing. If gross margin (78.6%) holds, EPS grows into the multiple faster than bears think.

RI RiskArb_Desk RQD DEBATE OPENER • Hedged Event Driven 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $10.57 (-14.0%)
Spot @ $12.29

Shares sit at $13.06 versus a $50.06 52-week high, with Whale 13F Flow scoring only 8/20.

Careful chasing TTD at $12.29. Shares sit at $13.06 versus a $50.06 52-week high, with Whale 13F Flow scoring only 8/20.. Gross margin is 78.6%, but operating margin is 20.3%, which shows SG&A and reinvestment are eating into bottom-line EPS. Target $10.57 on multiple compression.

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