Stock Ratings / Materials / TROX / forecast

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Tronox Holdings plc (UK) (TROX) 12-Month Stock Forecast & Price Target Cone

$3.60 -2.44% NYSE • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $3.58

Tronox Holdings plc (UK) (TROX) carries a Roarable Rating of D- (Sell) with 36/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (36/100 · D-) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows →

ROARABLE D- • RED ALERT Cap $589.3M

📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card

⚡ INSTANT AI QUANT PREVIEW • $0 FREE TIER Click Any Pre-Computed AI Quant Specialist Briefing on TROX Below — or Connect Your Own ChatGPT / Claude

🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is TROX stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

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As of 2026-11-02, Tronox Holdings plc (UK) (NYSE: TROX) is rated D- (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 36/100 at a spot price of $3.60 (-2.44% 1D, market cap $589.3M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 8/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 5/20, Executive Insider Alignment 8/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 6/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 9/20. Across 270 tracked Materials issuers, TROX ranks #212 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does TROX compare to PCT and FMC in the Materials sector?

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Within the Materials sector (Major Chemicals), TROX carries a Roarable D- (36/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of 9.3%, and ROIC of -16.4%. By comparison, PCT (PureCycle Technologies Inc.) holds a E grade (19/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -35.0%, cap $669.0M) and FMC (FMC Corporation) posts a E grade (27/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -30.2%, cap $738.9M). Among the 5-stock peer group, LXFR leads on earnings multiple (60.0x) while LXFR leads on capital efficiency (8.2% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for TROX?

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Per TROX's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001530804), Tronox Holdings plc (UK) generated $2.90B in revenue (-5.7% YoY), -$470.0M in net income, and $60.0M in free cash flow against $6.22B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Materials with deep daily trading liquidity.. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).

INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:

🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray

EXT / AFTER-HRS: $3.58 (-0.63%)🧬 Disciplined Float (-0.40% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 8/20 (D-) • 2.1% FCF Margin

Verify 90D Bucket Audit →

📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (36/100 · D-) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows (-8.3% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 29.0% hit rate).

Audit Bucket Track Record →

RQD QUANT TACHOMETERRED ALERT • D-

3-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bearish Warning

Cash

SEC

Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw D- · Rk D-

Each axis scored 0–20

12M PRICE TARGET CONE-10% Base Target

WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for TROX)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±11.8%

Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (36/100 Composite)

🔍 WHY TROX SCORES 36/100 (D-) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag

▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution+9/20 pts (25% of score)

SEC Form 4 / 13F Thermometer: 45% Net Buy • Disciplined Float (-0.40% YoY Shares)

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Cash Engine Quality+8/20 pts (22% of score)

SEC XBRL FY 2025 (10-K): 2.1% FCF Margin ($60.0M FCF) & 9.3% Gross Margin

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Whale & Options Positioning5/20 pts (-15 pt drag)

Put hedging (50% put share) caps near-term gamma upside (-15 pts vs max)

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current

Q1 (-3Q)

Grade E$3.48-3.2% Next Q

Q2 (-2Q)

Grade E$3.37+3% Next Q

Q3 (-1Q)

Grade E$3.47+3.7% Next Q

Current

Grade D-$3.60-8.3% Hist 90D α

Trajectory: E (28) → D- (36)Full Audit →

⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a TROX Turnaround Squeeze

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

While TROX currently carries a cautious 36/100 (D-) rating due to Whale & Options Positioning (5/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1

Established market leader in Materials with deep daily trading liquidity.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2

Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($4.16) and Max Pain ($3.78) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $11.12.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3

Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Disciplined Float (-0.40% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $TROX• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite

Contract: “TROX Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”

YES 36%NO 64%Trade / Inspect Odds →

INTERACTIVE 12-MONTH POSITION SIMULATOR

Drag to Test Your TROX Position Size: $10,000

Shares at $3.60: 2777.8 sh

$1,000$10,000$25,000$50,000$100,000

12M Bear Case FloorTarget $2.53

$7,028

$-2,972 (-29.7%)

12M Consensus BaseTarget $3.24

$9,000

$-1,000 (-10.0%)

12M Bull Case BreakoutTarget $11.12

$30,889

+$20,889 (+208.9%)

Wall Street Analyst Breakdown & Historical Accuracy Audit (35 Desks)

Street Historical Accuracy: 64/100

● Strong Buy / Buy: 17● Hold: 9● Sell: 9

Wall Street Firm	Stance	12M Target	1Y Accuracy	Track Grade
Morgan StanleyInstitutional Equity Desk	HOLD	$3	74%	A
Goldman SachsSector Coverage Lead	UNDERPERFORM	$10	69%	B
JP MorganUS Large-Cap Research	SELL	$3	58%	C

ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring TROX)

✓Walkthrough of TROX's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks

RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED

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TROX // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -64.00%⚡ TESTING RESISTANCE

2026-11-02O $3.72H $3.72L $3.60C $3.60VOL 2.49M

RES: $3.63SUP: $2.92SMA50: $4.16SMA200: $6.65

PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

TROX Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 TROX Butterfly Map → + Track TROX →

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)

8.0%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. -5.7% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on TROX today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for TROX. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video

🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for TROX today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →

DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (TROX)

Materials Rank #212 of 270 ⚔️ PCT vs TROX Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Materials Peer Comparison (TROX vs. PCT, FMC, BAK, LXFR)

Industry: Major Chemicals (67 Tracked Issuers)

Across 270 tracked Materials securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Tronox Holdings plc (UK) (TROX) ranks #212 by composite RQD confidence (36/100, grade D-) and #165 by equity capitalization ($589.3M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, LXFR leads on earnings valuation at 60.0x trailing P/E, while LXFR leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 8.2% ROIC and 23.2% gross margin. LXFR currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 65/100 (C) compared with TROX at 36/100 (D-).

Ticker / Company	Roarable Grade	RQD Score	Trailing P/E	Gross Margin	ROIC	1D Change	Market Cap	Head-to-Head
TROX ACTIVE Tronox Holdings plc (UK)	D-	36/100	—	9.3%	-16.4%	-2.44%	$589.3M	Benchmark Subject
PCT PureCycle Technologies Inc.	E	19/100	—	—	-35.0%	+0.90%	$669.0M	/pct-vs-trox →
FMC FMC Corporation	E	27/100	—	37.0%	-30.2%	+30.53%	$738.9M	/fmc-vs-trox →
BAK Braskem SA ADR	D	45/100	—	—	—	0.00%	$462.4M	/bak-vs-trox →
LXFR Luxfer Holdings PLC	C	65/100	60.0x	23.2%	8.2%	-0.23%	$462.1M	/lxfr-vs-trox →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001530804

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Tronox Holdings plc (UK) (TROX) reported GAAP revenue of $2.90B (-5.7% vs. FY2024 revenue of $3.07B , and +1.7% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of -$470.0M, operating cash flow of $60.0M, and free cash flow of $60.0M (-80.0% YoY). On the balance sheet, TROX closed FY2025 with $6.22B in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 0.67, Piotroski F-Score: 4/9).

Fiscal Period	Filing Date	Revenue	Net Income	Operating Cash Flow	Free Cash Flow	Total Assets	Total Debt
FY2025 (FY)	2025-12-31	$2.90B	-$470.0M	$60.0M	$60.0M	$6.22B	—
FY2024 (FY)	2024-12-31	$3.07B	-$48.0M	$300.0M	$300.0M	$6.04B	—
FY2023 (FY)	2023-12-31	$2.85B	-$316.0M	$184.0M	$184.0M	—	—

3. TROX Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is TROX stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

How does TROX compare to PCT and FMC in the Materials sector?

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for TROX?

Where is TROX trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

TROX last traded at $3.60 (-2.44% on volume of 1,530,622 shares), positioning the stock -13.46% below its 50-day simple moving average ($4.16) and -45.86% below its 200-day simple moving average ($6.65). Across its 52-week range of $2.86 to $10.59, TROX sits at the 9.6% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 46.6 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±11.8% ($3.18 to $4.02).

TROX Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index

100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FRED

What is TROX's 12-month stock price target?

Tronox Holdings plc (UK) (TROX) carries a 12-month consensus base price target of $3.24 (-10% from $3.60), with a bull-case target of $11.12 and a bear-case floor of $2.53.

Is TROX stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now?

Roarable's 5-Pillar RQD Quant Engine rates TROX D- (Sell — SELL) with an RQD Confidence score of 36/100.

Direct Sub-Reports: TROX RQD Cockpit TROX 12M Forecast TROX Earnings & Move TROX Dividends & DRIP TROX Insiders & 13F TROX Whale Options TROX Profit Sankey TROX News & Why

ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 36/100 (D-) ✓ STAGE-C NUMBER FIREWALL VERIFIED

TROX — Tronox Holdings plc (UK): What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Engine: anthropic/claude-haiku-5.5

As of: 2026-11-02T15:34:45Z

Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

Per the Roarable RQD rating, TROX scores 36 out of 100 with a letter grade of D-, labeled "Roarable Sell — Vulnerable Balance Sheet & Flow." The five pillars are: Fundamental Cash Engine at 8/20 (ROIC -16.4%; FCF yield 10.18%); Whale 13F Flow at 5/20 (institutional accumulation and options positioning); Insider Conviction at 9/20 (SEC Form 4 and Congressional PTR cluster flow); Macro Regime Fit at 6/20 (Beta 1.0; sector sensitivity); and Forensic Balance Sheet at 8/20 (Altman Z 0.67; Piotroski F 4/9; Debt/Equity 0.5). For a prospective investor, the weakest pillars are flow and balance-sheet strength, which together signal that the equity is sensitive to financing and sentiment shocks. The positive FCF yield of 10.18% is the main valuation-side offset, but the negative ROIC means that cash generation is not translating into returns on invested capital. The rating is a educational framing of the source data, not a recommendation.

Financial Trend

Period	Revenue	Operating Income	Net Income	EPS	FCF	Cash	Debt
FY 2025	$2898.0M	$-253.0M	$-470.0M	N/A	$60.0M	$199.0M	N/A
FY 2024	$3074.0M	$219.0M	$-48.0M	N/A	$300.0M	$151.0M	N/A
FY 2023	$2850.0M	$186.0M	$-316.0M	N/A	$184.0M	N/A	N/A

Per the SEC financials, revenue moved from $3074.0M in FY 2024 to $2898.0M in FY 2025, with operating income swinging from $219.0M to $-253.0M. Per the market data, ROIC is -16.4% and net margin is -16.2%. Per the Roarable RQD rating, the Altman Z-Score is 0.67, the Piotroski F-Score is 4/9, and Debt/Equity is 0.5. Those forensic readings point to a stressed balance sheet, and the source data does not report total debt values, so the leverage picture is only partially visible.

Butterfly Effect: 2nd-Order Supply-Chain & Sector Ripples

Per the Butterfly Supply-Chain Graph, the supply-chain classification is "NONE," no butterfly links are recorded, and no proprietary signals are present. Upstream and downstream dependencies, sector correlations, and second-order bottlenecks cannot be mapped from the source data. The only sector context available is the Materials / Major Chemicals classification.

Open Questions

What are the total debt and interest expense figures, given that the financials report debt as N/A for every period?
What drove the swing in net income from $-48.0M in FY 2024 to $-470.0M in FY 2025, and what portion is recurring?
What is the company's EPS, since the source reports EPS as N/A across all periods?
What product lines and end markets generate the revenue, and how exposed is the business to chemical pricing cycles?
Are there recent filings, guidance, or catalysts that would explain the FY 2025 operating loss?

TROX Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for Tronox Holdings plc (UK) (TROX) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to TROX Debate Forum (3) ↓

🟢 CATALYST Yahoo Finance • 5d ago

Will Tronox (TROX) Report Negative Earnings Next Week? What You Should Know

Tronox (TROX) doesn't possess the right combination of the two key ingredients for a likely earnings beat in its upcoming report. Get prepared with the key expectations.

Read Full Source ↗

🔴 RISK WATCH Yahoo Finance • 13d ago

Tronox Holdings (TROX) Stock Fair Value Falls After Cautious Analyst Target Cuts

The latest update on Tronox Holdings centers on a reset in fair value, with the model price anchor moving from US$6.63 to US$5.50. That shift lines up with more cautious Street commentary, where several banks now group t

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE Yahoo Finance • 28d ago

Tronox Announces Dates for Third Quarter 2026 Earnings Release & Webcast Conference Call

Tronox Holdings plc (NYSE: TROX) announced today the following schedule for its third quarter 2026 earnings release and webcast conference call:

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE Yahoo Finance • 33d ago

Tronox and JX Advanced Strengthen Rare Earth Development Projects

TROX and JXAM plan $32M in rare earth projects across Australia and the U.S., targeting up to 10,000 tons of annual oxide output.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE Yahoo Finance • 34d ago

Tronox, JX Advanced Metals to Invest $32 Million in Feasibility Studies for Rare Earth Projects

Tronox Holdings (TROX) and JX Advanced Metals have agreed to jointly invest $32 million in feasibili

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE Yahoo Finance • 34d ago

Tronox Announces Signing of a Cooperation and Investment Agreement with JX Advanced Metals to Advance Rare Earth Strategy

Tronox Holdings plc (NYSE: TROX) ("Tronox"), the world's leading integrated manufacturer of titanium dioxide ("TiO2") pigment, today announced the signing of a cooperation and investment agreement with JX Advanced Metals

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE Yahoo Finance • 59d ago

Why Is Tronox (TROX) Down 29.8% Since Last Earnings Report?

Tronox (TROX) reported earnings 30 days ago. What's next for the stock? We take a look at earnings estimates for some clues.

Read Full Source ↗

🟢 CATALYST Yahoo Finance • 80d ago

Tronox (TROX) Stock Looks Below Fair Value Even After A 65% Gain

Tronox Holdings has delivered a 65.3% return over the past year, yet the valuation checks still suggest the stock screens as relatively cheap. That combination of strong recent gains and an apparently supportive valuatio

Read Full Source ↗

🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

TROX Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $3.60?

🐂 33% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON TROX 🐻 67% BEARISH CONVICTION

RO RoarDesk_Moderator Roarable Research Desk 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $3.25 (-11.9%)

📌 Pinned Debate

🔥 Official Bull vs. Bear Debate: Is TROX (D- • RQD 36/100) a Buy at $3.69?

Welcome to the TROX (Tronox Holdings plc (UK)) Roar Pit. Current RQD Composite is 36/100 (Roarable Sell — Vulnerable Balance Sheet & Flow) in Major Chemicals. Bulls point to operating leverage and sector positioning, while bears focus on macro rate sensitivity and margin execution. Pick your side (🐂 Bull or 🐻 Bear) and drop your price target below.

BE BearTrap_Alert Forensic Accounting Watch 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $2.77 (-24.9%)

Spot @ $3.69

Pump the brakes on TROX — check the valuation vs. margin headwinds

Everyone in here is repeating the bull case on TROX, but look at what you are paying: current EV/EBITDA multiples with 9.3% gross margins. Unless Tronox Holdings plc (UK) expands free cash flow yield next quarter, I would rather wait for a pullback closer to the 200-day moving average before touching this.

AL AlphaFlow_Cap Verified K Arena Trader 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $4.72 (+27.9%)

Spot @ $3.69

TROX cash flow & RQD setup is being underpriced by the Street here

Looking at the 5-pillar RQD breakdown on TROX, the market is fixating on short-term headline noise in Major Chemicals and ignoring the balance sheet and cash flow trajectory. At $3.69 (52-wk range $2.86 - $10.59), any beat on forward guidance forces shorts and underweight funds to chase.