iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) earns a Roarable Rating of D+ (Sell) with 57/100 RQD Confidence. As an exchange-traded fund, single-company GAAP gross margins, Altman-Z, and CEO Form 4 insider metrics are N/A for fund structure; its score reflects basket trend, institutional flow, and macro regime alignment.
As of 2026-11-02, iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (NASDAQ: TLT) is rated D+ (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 57/100 at a spot price of $81.84 (+0.61% 1D, market cap $54.00B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 6/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 16/20, Executive Insider Alignment 15/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 4/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 16/20. Across 40 tracked ETF / Index issuers, TLT ranks #21 in composite RQD confidence.
Within the ETF / Index sector (Long-Duration US Treasuries), TLT carries a Roarable D+ (57/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of N/A (ETF), and ROIC of N/A (ETF). By comparison, IBIT (iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF) holds a D+ grade (56/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC —, cap $52.00B) and XLF (Financial Select Sector SPDR Fund) posts a B grade (74/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC —, cap $48.00B). Among the 5-stock peer group, TLT leads on earnings multiple (N/A) while TLT leads on capital efficiency (— ROIC).
For iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT), key quantitative strengths include Diversified Long-Duration US Treasuries basket eliminates single-company earnings blowup risk. and Institutional 13F desks and index options flow show constructive basket demand., while primary risk factors center on Corporate GAAP gross margin, Altman-Z, and Form 4 insider metrics are N/A for ETF fund structures. and Underlying index basket remains sensitive to Federal Reserve liquidity and Treasury yield swings.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.
Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer
20D Institutional Volume Accumulation (±1.8% realized swing band)
SEC Form 4 / 13F Thermometer: 80% Net Buy • ETF Open-End Share Creation/Redemption
Macro rate sensitivity & RSI-14 (63) create a -16 pt regime headwind
Even with a 57/100 (D+) score, TLT faces multiple-compression risk if current valuation multiples re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.
Corporate GAAP gross margin, Altman-Z, and Form 4 insider metrics are N/A for ETF fund structures.
Underlying index basket remains sensitive to Federal Reserve liquidity and Treasury yield swings.
Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($80.48) or 200D SMA ($84.56) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($81.47) toward Bear Floor ($63.55).
iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) advanced +0.61% to $81.84, trading at 37% of its 52-week range ($76.43 – $90.86). ETF / Index Composite (Long-Duration US Treasuries) tracking macro liquidity and institutional flow.
The US Federal Reserve, ECB and BoJ all did what was expected last week and held interest rates steady, choosing to wait until their December meetings before potentially hiking again.
A single week of Treasury auctions just shattered a record, yet long bond prices moved in the opposite direction anyone would expect. Understanding why reveals exactly what could unravel before the next major debt sale o
October labor market data may beat forecasts, but AI bubble risks could weaken jobs and push the Fed toward a rate cut. Read more on the Fed's next move here.
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Hafiz Noordin discusses the outlook for rates, the possibility of another hike, and what it could mean for markets. Read more here.
Is the AI boom reaching a breaking point? Larry McDonald discusses growing cracks in the AI trade, warning signs in credit markets and why he believes the Nasdaq could face a 20-30% decline.
The Fed meets again in December. By then, policymakers will have more information, but Thursdayâs data already make the case for another rate increase.
There are two key dimensions of inflation risk, and both suggest that the recent upturn in prices may be on the cusp of becoming entrenched. Read more here.
October jobs report: election and inflation risks, sector winners, and top stock picks in health care, finance, manufacturing, and defense.
The overall economy, adjusted for inflation, grew by a strong 3.4% in Q3 annualized, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis
Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).
Single-issuer corporate Reverse-DCF growth hurdles do not apply to index funds or ETFs.
Trigger: $83.56 • Invalidation: $79.55
No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for TLT. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.
Across 40 tracked ETF / Index securities in the Roarable RQD universe, iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) ranks #21 by composite RQD confidence (57/100, grade D+) and #10 by equity capitalization ($54.00B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, TLT leads on earnings valuation at N/A trailing P/E, while TLT leads on capital efficiency and profitability with ETF composite structure and benchmark tracking. SCHD currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 77/100 (B+) compared with TLT at 57/100 (D+).
| Ticker / Company | Roarable Grade | RQD Score | Trailing P/E | Gross Margin | ROIC | 1D Change | Market Cap | Head-to-Head |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TLT
ACTIVE
iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF | D+ | 57/100 | — | — | — | +0.61% | $54.00B | Benchmark Subject |
| IBIT iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF | D+ | 56/100 | — | — | — | -0.94% | $52.00B | /ibit-vs-tlt → |
| XLF Financial Select Sector SPDR Fund | B | 74/100 | — | — | — | +1.42% | $48.00B | /xlf-vs-tlt → |
| SCHD Schwab U.S. Dividend Equity ETF | B+ | 77/100 | — | — | — | +1.46% | $65.00B | /schd-vs-tlt → |
| IWM iShares Russell 2000 Small-Cap ETF | C+ | 69/100 | — | — | — | +0.96% | $72.00B | /iwm-vs-tlt → |
Because iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) is structured as an exchange-traded fund / composite basket rather than a single operating corporation filing 10-K GAAP income statements, Roarable evaluates TLT on technical trend regime, moving-average dispersion, 52-week range positioning, relative strength (RSI-14), and secondary-market share volume liquidity. At $81.84, TLT trades vs. its 50-day SMA of $80.48 and 200-day SMA of $84.56 on daily liquidity of 41,025,196 shares.
As of 2026-11-02, iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (NASDAQ: TLT) is rated D+ (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 57/100 at a spot price of $81.84 (+0.61% 1D, market cap $54.00B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 6/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 16/20, Executive Insider Alignment 15/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 4/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 16/20. Across 40 tracked ETF / Index issuers, TLT ranks #21 in composite RQD confidence.
Within the ETF / Index sector (Long-Duration US Treasuries), TLT carries a Roarable D+ (57/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of N/A (ETF), and ROIC of N/A (ETF). By comparison, IBIT (iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF) holds a D+ grade (56/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC —, cap $52.00B) and XLF (Financial Select Sector SPDR Fund) posts a B grade (74/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC —, cap $48.00B). Among the 5-stock peer group, TLT leads on earnings multiple (N/A) while TLT leads on capital efficiency (— ROIC).
For iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT), key quantitative strengths include Diversified Long-Duration US Treasuries basket eliminates single-company earnings blowup risk. and Institutional 13F desks and index options flow show constructive basket demand., while primary risk factors center on Corporate GAAP gross margin, Altman-Z, and Form 4 insider metrics are N/A for ETF fund structures. and Underlying index basket remains sensitive to Federal Reserve liquidity and Treasury yield swings.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.
TLT last traded at $81.84 (+0.61% on volume of 41,025,196 shares), positioning the stock +1.69% above its 50-day simple moving average ($80.48) and -3.22% below its 200-day simple moving average ($84.56). Across its 52-week range of $76.43 to $90.86, TLT sits at the 37.5% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 63.0 (BULLISH MOMENTUM) and an implied next-earnings move of ±1.8% ($80.37 to $83.31).
Why TLT ETF advanced +0.61% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash. ETF / Index Composite (Long-Duration US Treasuries) tracking macro liquidity and institutional flow.
Per the Roarable RQD rating, TLT scores 57 out of 100, graded D+ and labeled "Roarable Sell — Weak Fundamentals / Trim (ETF Composite Methodology)." The five pillars are:
For a prospective investor evaluating the fund today, the composite points to weak scores on the cash-engine and macro-fit pillars, partly offset by institutional and insider flow scores and a moderate forensic profile. The methodology is designed for operating companies, so the implication is that the rating is best read as a signal about positioning and rate sensitivity rather than a valuation of underlying business cash flows. The current price of 81.84 sits within a 52-week range of $76.43 to $90.86, with a reported daily change of 0.61%.
Per the profile section, TLT is an exchange-traded fund in the ETF / Index sector, classified under the Long-Duration US Treasuries industry and listed on NASDAQ. It is described as a liquid institutional fund tracking long-duration US Treasuries, with approximately $54.0B in assets under management. The source data does not describe the fund's sales channels or fee structure, and it contains no operating business model beyond this tracking description.
Per the Butterfly Supply-Chain Graph, the supply chain is reported as NONE, with no butterfly links and no proprietary signals. No upstream or downstream dependencies, sector correlations, or second-order bottlenecks are identified in the source data. The only sector context provided is the classification as ETF / Index within the Long-Duration US Treasuries industry.
Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below
The US Federal Reserve, ECB and BoJ all did what was expected last week and held interest rates steady, choosing to wait until their December meetings before potentially hiking again.
A single week of Treasury auctions just shattered a record, yet long bond prices moved in the opposite direction anyone would expect. Understanding why reveals exactly what could unravel before the next major debt sale o
October labor market data may beat forecasts, but AI bubble risks could weaken jobs and push the Fed toward a rate cut. Read more on the Fed's next move here.
Gold and silver pulled back on rising rates, but long-term drivers stay bullish.
Hafiz Noordin discusses the outlook for rates, the possibility of another hike, and what it could mean for markets. Read more here.
Is the AI boom reaching a breaking point? Larry McDonald discusses growing cracks in the AI trade, warning signs in credit markets and why he believes the Nasdaq could face a 20-30% decline.
The Fed meets again in December. By then, policymakers will have more information, but Thursdayâs data already make the case for another rate increase.
There are two key dimensions of inflation risk, and both suggest that the recent upturn in prices may be on the cusp of becoming entrenched. Read more here.
Welcome to the TLT (iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF) Roar Pit. Current RQD Composite is 57/100 (Roarable Sell — Weak Fundamentals / Trim (ETF Composite Methodology)) in Long-Duration US Treasuries. Bulls point to operating leverage and sector positioning, while bears focus on macro rate sensitivity and margin execution. Pick your side (🐂 Bull or 🐻 Bear) and drop your price target below.
Everyone in here is repeating the bull case on TLT, but look at what you are paying: current EV/EBITDA multiples with tightening sector spreads. Unless iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF expands free cash flow yield next quarter, I would rather wait for a pullback closer to the 200-day moving average before touching this.
Looking at the 5-pillar RQD breakdown on TLT, the market is fixating on short-term headline noise in Long-Duration US Treasuries and ignoring the balance sheet and cash flow trajectory. At $81.84 (52-wk range $76.43 - $90.86), any beat on forward guidance forces shorts and underweight funds to chase.
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