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Why TKR Stock surged +2.41% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash

$113.57 +2.41% NYSE • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $113.85

Timken Company (TKR) carries a Roarable Rating of D+ (Sell) with 55/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

ROARABLE D+ • SELL / AVOID Cap $7.69B
📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card
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🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is TKR stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
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As of 2026-11-03, Timken Company (NYSE: TKR) is rated D+ (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 55/100 at a spot price of $113.57 (+2.41% 1D, market cap $7.69B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 15/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 7/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 14/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 6/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 13/20. Across 486 tracked Industrials issuers, TKR ranks #171 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does TKR compare to VMI and NPO in the Industrials sector?
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Within the Industrials sector (Metal Fabrications), TKR carries a Roarable D+ (55/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 27.6x, gross margin of 30.4%, and ROIC of 9.1%. By comparison, VMI (Valmont Industries Inc.) holds a C- grade (60/100 RQD, P/E 23.6x, ROIC 14.7%, cap $8.08B) and NPO (Enpro Inc.) posts a D grade (50/100 RQD, P/E 148.7x, ROIC 6.1%, cap $5.75B). Among the 5-stock peer group, VMI leads on earnings multiple (23.6x) while WTS leads on capital efficiency (19.5% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for TKR?
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Per TKR's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0000098362), Timken Company generated $4.58B in revenue (+0.2% YoY), $288.4M in net income, and $348.1M in free cash flow against $6.68B in total assets and $1.88B in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Strong cash generator (30.4% gross margin)—profits are backed by real money, not accounting tricks. Primary risk factors monitored: Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $113.84 (+0.24%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-1.52% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 15/20 (B) • 7.6% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →
📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 55/100 (D+) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (-0.5% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 51.4% hit rate — wait for RQD ≥ 70 breakout).
Audit Bucket Track Record →
RQD QUANT TACHOMETERSELL / AVOID • D+
025507510055
2-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bullish
Cash
SEC
Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw D+ · Rk D
Cash (15)Whales (7)SEC (14)Macro (6)CEO (13)
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE-1.3% Base Target
$154 Bull$112 Base$87 Bear
📬 FREE TKR RATING-CHANGE & BRIEFING ALERTSManage / Unsubscribe
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for TKR)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±5.6%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (55/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY TKR SCORES 55/100 (D+) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Cash Engine Quality+15/20 pts (27% of score)

SEC XBRL FY 2025 (10-K): 7.6% FCF Margin ($348.1M FCF) & 30.4% Gross Margin

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+14/20 pts (25% of score)

Altman Z-Score 3.31 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) • Piotroski F-Score 6/9

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Macro Regime Fit6/20 pts (-14 pt drag)

Macro rate sensitivity & RSI-14 (43) create a -14 pt regime headwind

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)
47
Grade D$112.32+2.4% Next Q
Q2 (-2Q)
50
Grade C-$114.97-1.1% Next Q
Q3 (-1Q)
52
Grade C-$113.67-0.1% Next Q
Current
55
Grade D+$113.57-0.5% Hist 90D α
Trajectory: D (47) → D+ (55)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the TKR Bull Thesis Could Fail

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

Even with a 55/100 (D+) score, TKR faces multiple-compression risk if 27.6x trailing P/E re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1

Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2

Dilution & Margin Drag: Cannibal Buyback (-1.52% YoY Shares) — any gross margin slip below 27.9% triggers an automatic RQD downgrade.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3

Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($116.57) or 200D SMA ($117.54) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($112.04) toward Bear Floor ($87.39).

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $TKR• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “TKR Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
AUTOMATED RQD QUANT DESK MOVER BRIEFINGFull Market News Desk →

Why TKR Stock surged +2.41% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash

Timken Company (TKR) surged +2.41% to $113.57, trading at 55% of its 52-week range ($73.62 – $146.37). Stretched risk/reward at 28x P/E (9% return on capital) under elevated 10-year interest-rate pressure.

  • ▸Technical Tape: Trading at 55% of its 52-week range ($73.62 – $146.37) with RSI-14 at 43 (NEUTRAL RANGE).
  • ▸Volatility Profile: Historical 20-day realized swing band of ±5.6% around $113.57 (no active unusual options sweep snapshot on file).
  • ▸Fundamental Anchor: Roarable D+ (Sell) backed by 30.4% gross margin and $348.1M annual free cash flow.
Live TKR Headlines & Catalysts
ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring TKR)

  • ✓Walkthrough of TKR's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
  • ✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
  • ✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks
RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED
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TKR // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +6.02%⚡ TESTING RESISTANCE
2026-11-03O $114.8H $114.8L $110.9C $113.6VOL 875.4K
RES: $114.9SUP: $106.2SMA50: $116.6SMA200: $117.5
$150.5$133.5$116.6$99.68$82.76RES $114.9SUP $106.2$113.62026-05-042026-06-182026-08-052026-09-212026-11-03
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

TKR Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

Share Count & Dilution Monitor

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle
21.1%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +0.2% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on TKR today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for TKR. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for TKR today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (TKR)

Industrials Rank #171 of 486 ⚔️ VMI vs TKR Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Industrials Peer Comparison (TKR vs. VMI, NPO, CR, WTS)

Industry: Metal Fabrications (47 Tracked Issuers)

Across 486 tracked Industrials securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Timken Company (TKR) ranks #171 by composite RQD confidence (55/100, grade D+) and #115 by equity capitalization ($7.69B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, VMI leads on earnings valuation at 23.6x trailing P/E, while WTS leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 19.5% ROIC and 49.5% gross margin. WTS currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 65/100 (C) compared with TKR at 55/100 (D+).

Ticker / Company Roarable Grade RQD Score Trailing P/E Gross Margin ROIC 1D Change Market Cap Head-to-Head
TKR ACTIVE
Timken Company
D+ 55/100 27.6x 30.4% 9.1% +2.41% $7.69B Benchmark Subject
VMI
Valmont Industries Inc.
C- 60/100 23.6x 30.2% 14.7% +1.09% $8.08B /vmi-vs-tkr →
NPO
Enpro Inc.
D 50/100 148.7x 42.6% 6.1% -0.94% $5.75B /npo-vs-tkr →
CR
Crane Company
C 63/100 32.4x 42.2% 12.4% +3.04% $11.45B /cr-vs-tkr →
WTS
Watts Water Technologies Inc.
C 65/100 34.4x 49.5% 19.5% +2.20% $11.60B /wts-vs-tkr →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0000098362 ↗

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Timken Company (TKR) reported GAAP revenue of $4.58B (+0.2% vs. FY2024 revenue of $4.57B , and -3.9% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $288.4M, operating cash flow of $554.3M, and free cash flow of $348.1M (+29.0% YoY). On the balance sheet, TKR closed FY2025 with $6.68B in total assets against $1.88B in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 3.31, Piotroski F-Score: 6/9).

Fiscal Period Filing Date Revenue Net Income Operating Cash Flow Free Cash Flow Total Assets Total Debt
FY2025 (FY) 2025-12-31 $4.58B $288.4M $554.3M $348.1M $6.68B $1.88B
FY2024 (FY) 2024-12-31 $4.57B $352.7M $475.7M $269.9M $6.41B $2.05B
FY2023 (FY) 2023-12-31 $4.77B $394.1M $545.2M $330.6M $5.72B $1.34B

3. TKR Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is TKR stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-03, Timken Company (NYSE: TKR) is rated D+ (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 55/100 at a spot price of $113.57 (+2.41% 1D, market cap $7.69B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 15/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 7/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 14/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 6/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 13/20. Across 486 tracked Industrials issuers, TKR ranks #171 in composite RQD confidence.

How does TKR compare to VMI and NPO in the Industrials sector?

Within the Industrials sector (Metal Fabrications), TKR carries a Roarable D+ (55/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 27.6x, gross margin of 30.4%, and ROIC of 9.1%. By comparison, VMI (Valmont Industries Inc.) holds a C- grade (60/100 RQD, P/E 23.6x, ROIC 14.7%, cap $8.08B) and NPO (Enpro Inc.) posts a D grade (50/100 RQD, P/E 148.7x, ROIC 6.1%, cap $5.75B). Among the 5-stock peer group, VMI leads on earnings multiple (23.6x) while WTS leads on capital efficiency (19.5% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for TKR?

Per TKR's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0000098362), Timken Company generated $4.58B in revenue (+0.2% YoY), $288.4M in net income, and $348.1M in free cash flow against $6.68B in total assets and $1.88B in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Strong cash generator (30.4% gross margin)—profits are backed by real money, not accounting tricks. Primary risk factors monitored: Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is TKR trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

TKR last traded at $113.57 (+2.41% on volume of 803,828 shares), positioning the stock -2.57% below its 50-day simple moving average ($116.57) and -3.38% below its 200-day simple moving average ($117.54). Across its 52-week range of $73.62 to $146.37, TKR sits at the 54.9% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 43.0 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±5.6% ($107.21 to $119.93).

ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 55/100 (D+) ✓ SEC XBRL & RQD VERIFIED

TKR — Timken Company: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Methodology: RQD v6.2 Deterministic 5-Pillar & SEC XBRL Audit
Updated: 2025-12-31

1. Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

Timken Company (TKR) earns a live Roarable RQD composite score of 55/100, corresponding to a D+ letter grade (Roarable Sell) at a spot price of $113.57 (+2.41% 1D, market capitalization $7.69B).

  • Fundamental Cash Engine (15/20): Anchored by return on invested capital (ROIC) of 9.1%, gross margin of 30.4%, operating margin of 11.8%, and free cash flow yield of 4.37%.
  • Whale 13F & Options Flow (7/20) + Insider Conviction (13/20): Tracks institutional 13F accumulation, CBOE options call/put positioning, and SEC Form 4 / Congressional PTR filings.
  • Macro Regime Fit (6/20) + Forensic Balance Sheet (14/20): Incorporates a 1.11x equity beta, Altman Z-Score of 3.31, Piotroski F-Score of 6/9, and Debt/Equity of 0.59x.

2. Business Model, Unit Margins & SEC Financial Trajectory

Timken Company (TKR) is a NYSE-listed issuer in the Industrials sector, Metal Fabrications industry. Per the market data, gross margin is 30.4%, and per the financials, FY 2025 revenue was $4.58B.

In its latest audited SEC EDGAR 10-K filing for FY2025 (filed 2025-12-31), Timken Company (TKR) reported $4.58B in annual revenue (up from $4.57B in FY2024, +0.2% YoY) and $288.4M in GAAP net income. Over the multi-year SEC filing window from FY2023 ($4.77B revenue, $394.1M net income) through FY2025, TKR scaled operating cash flow to $554.3M and free cash flow to $348.1M, backed by $6.68B in total assets against $1.88B in total debt.

3. Institutional Bull vs. Bear Thesis & Valuation Tradeoff

  • 🐂 Primary Bull Case (D+ • RQD 55/100): Strong cash generator (30.4% gross margin)—profits are backed by real money, not accounting tricks. Free cash flow yield of 4.37% and institutional whale pillar of 7/20. With Fundamental Cash Engine at 15/20 and Institutional Whale Flow at 7/20, sustained execution supports upside toward the upper end of the $73.62 – $146.37 52-week range.
  • 🐻 Primary Bear Case & Valuation Risk: Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity. Investors must weigh 27.6x trailing P/E and 13.2x EV/EBITDA against 11.8% operating margins and a 1.11x macro beta.

4. 2nd-Order Butterfly Ripples & Key Questions to Watch

Operating in Metal Fabrications (Industrials), TKR carries a macro regime beta of 1.11 and gross margin of 30.4%.

  • Key Question #1: Can TKR sustain or expand its 11.8% operating margin and 9.1% ROIC against Metal Fabrications peers over the next 4 quarters?
  • Key Question #2: Following FY2025 revenue of $4.58B and free cash flow of $348.1M, how will capital allocation balance growth reinvestment against $1.88B in total debt?
  • Key Question #3: How sensitive is TKR's 25.7x forward P/E multiple to Industrials capital spending cycles and macro interest-rate shifts (Beta 1.11x)?

TKR Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for Timken Company (TKR) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to TKR Debate Forum (3) ↓
🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

TKR Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $113.57?

🐂 67% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON TKR 🐻 33% BEARISH CONVICTION
1. Pick Your Side on TKR:
💡 Tip: Back up your call with a price target or RQD metric to get upvoted to the top.
MA MacroHawk_NYC RQD DEBATE OPENER • Cross-Asset Macro Desk 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $138.62 (+25.0%)
📌 Pinned Debate

Free cash flow rose from $269.9M in FY 2024 to $348.1M in FY 2025 while debt fell from $2.05B to $1.88B.

Don't sleep on TKR's setup in Industrials. Free cash flow rose from $269.9M in FY 2024 to $348.1M in FY 2025 while debt fell from $2.05B to $1.88B.. Beta of 1.11 means it moves fast when momentum turns, and the 5-pillar RQD gauge (55/100) backs up the fundamental quality.

SectorRotator 🐂 BULL

@MacroHawk_NYC Agree on the RQD 55/100 quality, though with 1.11 beta I'm scaling in with half-size at $110.90 and keeping dry powder in case we test $103.14.

SH ShortSeller_Dan RQD DEBATE OPENER • Forensic Short Bias 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $87.61 (-21.0%)
Spot @ $110.90

The stock trades at a 27.6 trailing P/E and 25.7 forward P/E against an RQD score of 58 and a Macro Regime Fit pillar of only 6 of 20.

Sitting on the sidelines or leaning short TKR above $110.90. The stock trades at a 27.6 trailing P/E and 25.7 forward P/E against an RQD score of 58 and a Macro Regime Fit pillar of only 6 of 20.. Until Fundamental Cash Engine (15/20) and FCF yield (4.37%) inflect higher, upside is capped near $146.37.

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