Yahoo Finance report covering Timken Company (TKR) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
Why TKR Stock surged +2.41% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash
Timken Company (TKR) carries a Roarable Rating of D+ (Sell) with 55/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.
🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief)
Is TKR stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
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As of 2026-11-03, Timken Company (NYSE: TKR) is rated D+ (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 55/100 at a spot price of $113.57 (+2.41% 1D, market cap $7.69B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 15/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 7/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 14/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 6/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 13/20. Across 486 tracked Industrials issuers, TKR ranks #171 in composite RQD confidence.
🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief)
How does TKR compare to VMI and NPO in the Industrials sector?
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Within the Industrials sector (Metal Fabrications), TKR carries a Roarable D+ (55/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 27.6x, gross margin of 30.4%, and ROIC of 9.1%. By comparison, VMI (Valmont Industries Inc.) holds a C- grade (60/100 RQD, P/E 23.6x, ROIC 14.7%, cap $8.08B) and NPO (Enpro Inc.) posts a D grade (50/100 RQD, P/E 148.7x, ROIC 6.1%, cap $5.75B). Among the 5-stock peer group, VMI leads on earnings multiple (23.6x) while WTS leads on capital efficiency (19.5% ROIC).
🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief)
What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for TKR?
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Per TKR's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0000098362), Timken Company generated $4.58B in revenue (+0.2% YoY), $288.4M in net income, and $348.1M in free cash flow against $6.68B in total assets and $1.88B in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Strong cash generator (30.4% gross margin)—profits are backed by real money, not accounting tricks. Primary risk factors monitored: Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.
Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer
SEC XBRL FY 2025 (10-K): 7.6% FCF Margin ($348.1M FCF) & 30.4% Gross Margin
Altman Z-Score 3.31 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) • Piotroski F-Score 6/9
Macro rate sensitivity & RSI-14 (43) create a -14 pt regime headwind
⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the TKR Bull Thesis Could Fail
Even with a 55/100 (D+) score, TKR faces multiple-compression risk if 27.6x trailing P/E re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.
Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity.
Dilution & Margin Drag: Cannibal Buyback (-1.52% YoY Shares) — any gross margin slip below 27.9% triggers an automatic RQD downgrade.
Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($116.57) or 200D SMA ($117.54) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($112.04) toward Bear Floor ($87.39).
Why TKR Stock surged +2.41% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash
Timken Company (TKR) surged +2.41% to $113.57, trading at 55% of its 52-week range ($73.62 – $146.37). Stretched risk/reward at 28x P/E (9% return on capital) under elevated 10-year interest-rate pressure.
- ▸Technical Tape: Trading at 55% of its 52-week range ($73.62 – $146.37) with RSI-14 at 43 (NEUTRAL RANGE).
- ▸Volatility Profile: Historical 20-day realized swing band of ±5.6% around $113.57 (no active unusual options sweep snapshot on file).
- ▸Fundamental Anchor: Roarable D+ (Sell) backed by 30.4% gross margin and $348.1M annual free cash flow.
ChartMill report covering Timken Company (TKR) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
TradingView report covering Timken Company (TKR) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
Yahoo Finance report covering Timken Company (TKR) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
MarketBeat report covering Timken Company (TKR) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
Simply Wall St report covering Timken Company (TKR) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
Quiver Quantitative report covering Timken Company (TKR) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
TradingView report covering Timken Company (TKR) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
Rockwell Automation (ROK) possesses the right combination of the two key ingredients for a likely earnings beat in its upcoming report. Get prepared with the key expectations.
Timken (TKR) doesn't possess the right combination of the two key ingredients for a likely earnings beat in its upcoming report. Get prepared with the key expectations.
Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring TKR)
- ✓Walkthrough of TKR's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
- ✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
- ✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks
TKR Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure
Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).
vs. +0.2% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).
No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on TKR today. View full Setup Ledger →
No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for TKR. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.
📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (TKR)
1. Head-to-Head Industrials Peer Comparison (TKR vs. VMI, NPO, CR, WTS)
Industry: Metal Fabrications (47 Tracked Issuers)Across 486 tracked Industrials securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Timken Company (TKR) ranks #171 by composite RQD confidence (55/100, grade D+) and #115 by equity capitalization ($7.69B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, VMI leads on earnings valuation at 23.6x trailing P/E, while WTS leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 19.5% ROIC and 49.5% gross margin. WTS currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 65/100 (C) compared with TKR at 55/100 (D+).
| Ticker / Company | Roarable Grade | RQD Score | Trailing P/E | Gross Margin | ROIC | 1D Change | Market Cap | Head-to-Head |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TKR
ACTIVE
Timken Company | D+ | 55/100 | 27.6x | 30.4% | 9.1% | +2.41% | $7.69B | Benchmark Subject |
| VMI Valmont Industries Inc. | C- | 60/100 | 23.6x | 30.2% | 14.7% | +1.09% | $8.08B | /vmi-vs-tkr → |
| NPO Enpro Inc. | D | 50/100 | 148.7x | 42.6% | 6.1% | -0.94% | $5.75B | /npo-vs-tkr → |
| CR Crane Company | C | 63/100 | 32.4x | 42.2% | 12.4% | +3.04% | $11.45B | /cr-vs-tkr → |
| WTS Watts Water Technologies Inc. | C | 65/100 | 34.4x | 49.5% | 19.5% | +2.20% | $11.60B | /wts-vs-tkr → |
2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)
SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0000098362 ↗In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Timken Company (TKR) reported GAAP revenue of $4.58B (+0.2% vs. FY2024 revenue of $4.57B , and -3.9% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $288.4M, operating cash flow of $554.3M, and free cash flow of $348.1M (+29.0% YoY). On the balance sheet, TKR closed FY2025 with $6.68B in total assets against $1.88B in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 3.31, Piotroski F-Score: 6/9).
| Fiscal Period | Filing Date | Revenue | Net Income | Operating Cash Flow | Free Cash Flow | Total Assets | Total Debt |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY2025 (FY) | 2025-12-31 | $4.58B | $288.4M | $554.3M | $348.1M | $6.68B | $1.88B |
| FY2024 (FY) | 2024-12-31 | $4.57B | $352.7M | $475.7M | $269.9M | $6.41B | $2.05B |
| FY2023 (FY) | 2023-12-31 | $4.77B | $394.1M | $545.2M | $330.6M | $5.72B | $1.34B |
3. TKR Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)
✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLEDIs TKR stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
As of 2026-11-03, Timken Company (NYSE: TKR) is rated D+ (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 55/100 at a spot price of $113.57 (+2.41% 1D, market cap $7.69B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 15/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 7/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 14/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 6/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 13/20. Across 486 tracked Industrials issuers, TKR ranks #171 in composite RQD confidence.
How does TKR compare to VMI and NPO in the Industrials sector?
Within the Industrials sector (Metal Fabrications), TKR carries a Roarable D+ (55/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 27.6x, gross margin of 30.4%, and ROIC of 9.1%. By comparison, VMI (Valmont Industries Inc.) holds a C- grade (60/100 RQD, P/E 23.6x, ROIC 14.7%, cap $8.08B) and NPO (Enpro Inc.) posts a D grade (50/100 RQD, P/E 148.7x, ROIC 6.1%, cap $5.75B). Among the 5-stock peer group, VMI leads on earnings multiple (23.6x) while WTS leads on capital efficiency (19.5% ROIC).
What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for TKR?
Per TKR's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0000098362), Timken Company generated $4.58B in revenue (+0.2% YoY), $288.4M in net income, and $348.1M in free cash flow against $6.68B in total assets and $1.88B in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Strong cash generator (30.4% gross margin)—profits are backed by real money, not accounting tricks. Primary risk factors monitored: Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.
Where is TKR trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?
TKR last traded at $113.57 (+2.41% on volume of 803,828 shares), positioning the stock -2.57% below its 50-day simple moving average ($116.57) and -3.38% below its 200-day simple moving average ($117.54). Across its 52-week range of $73.62 to $146.37, TKR sits at the 54.9% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 43.0 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±5.6% ($107.21 to $119.93).
TKR — Timken Company: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor
1. Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor
Timken Company (TKR) earns a live Roarable RQD composite score of 55/100, corresponding to a D+ letter grade (Roarable Sell) at a spot price of $113.57 (+2.41% 1D, market capitalization $7.69B).
- Fundamental Cash Engine (15/20): Anchored by return on invested capital (ROIC) of 9.1%, gross margin of 30.4%, operating margin of 11.8%, and free cash flow yield of 4.37%.
- Whale 13F & Options Flow (7/20) + Insider Conviction (13/20): Tracks institutional 13F accumulation, CBOE options call/put positioning, and SEC Form 4 / Congressional PTR filings.
- Macro Regime Fit (6/20) + Forensic Balance Sheet (14/20): Incorporates a 1.11x equity beta, Altman Z-Score of 3.31, Piotroski F-Score of 6/9, and Debt/Equity of 0.59x.
2. Business Model, Unit Margins & SEC Financial Trajectory
Timken Company (TKR) is a NYSE-listed issuer in the Industrials sector, Metal Fabrications industry. Per the market data, gross margin is 30.4%, and per the financials, FY 2025 revenue was $4.58B.
In its latest audited SEC EDGAR 10-K filing for FY2025 (filed 2025-12-31), Timken Company (TKR) reported $4.58B in annual revenue (up from $4.57B in FY2024, +0.2% YoY) and $288.4M in GAAP net income. Over the multi-year SEC filing window from FY2023 ($4.77B revenue, $394.1M net income) through FY2025, TKR scaled operating cash flow to $554.3M and free cash flow to $348.1M, backed by $6.68B in total assets against $1.88B in total debt.
3. Institutional Bull vs. Bear Thesis & Valuation Tradeoff
- 🐂 Primary Bull Case (D+ • RQD 55/100): Strong cash generator (30.4% gross margin)—profits are backed by real money, not accounting tricks. Free cash flow yield of 4.37% and institutional whale pillar of 7/20. With Fundamental Cash Engine at 15/20 and Institutional Whale Flow at 7/20, sustained execution supports upside toward the upper end of the $73.62 – $146.37 52-week range.
- 🐻 Primary Bear Case & Valuation Risk: Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity. Investors must weigh 27.6x trailing P/E and 13.2x EV/EBITDA against 11.8% operating margins and a 1.11x macro beta.
4. 2nd-Order Butterfly Ripples & Key Questions to Watch
Operating in Metal Fabrications (Industrials), TKR carries a macro regime beta of 1.11 and gross margin of 30.4%.
- Key Question #1: Can TKR sustain or expand its 11.8% operating margin and 9.1% ROIC against Metal Fabrications peers over the next 4 quarters?
- Key Question #2: Following FY2025 revenue of $4.58B and free cash flow of $348.1M, how will capital allocation balance growth reinvestment against $1.88B in total debt?
- Key Question #3: How sensitive is TKR's 25.7x forward P/E multiple to Industrials capital spending cycles and macro interest-rate shifts (Beta 1.11x)?
TKR Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire
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Yahoo Finance report covering Timken Company (TKR) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
ChartMill report covering Timken Company (TKR) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
TradingView report covering Timken Company (TKR) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
Yahoo Finance report covering Timken Company (TKR) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
MarketBeat report covering Timken Company (TKR) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
Simply Wall St report covering Timken Company (TKR) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
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TradingView report covering Timken Company (TKR) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
TKR Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $113.57?
Free cash flow rose from $269.9M in FY 2024 to $348.1M in FY 2025 while debt fell from $2.05B to $1.88B.
Don't sleep on TKR's setup in Industrials. Free cash flow rose from $269.9M in FY 2024 to $348.1M in FY 2025 while debt fell from $2.05B to $1.88B.. Beta of 1.11 means it moves fast when momentum turns, and the 5-pillar RQD gauge (55/100) backs up the fundamental quality.
@MacroHawk_NYC Agree on the RQD 55/100 quality, though with 1.11 beta I'm scaling in with half-size at $110.90 and keeping dry powder in case we test $103.14.
The stock trades at a 27.6 trailing P/E and 25.7 forward P/E against an RQD score of 58 and a Macro Regime Fit pillar of only 6 of 20.
Sitting on the sidelines or leaning short TKR above $110.90. The stock trades at a 27.6 trailing P/E and 25.7 forward P/E against an RQD score of 58 and a Macro Regime Fit pillar of only 6 of 20.. Until Fundamental Cash Engine (15/20) and FCF yield (4.37%) inflect higher, upside is capped near $146.37.