Trefis report covering TKO Group Holdings Inc. (TKO) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
Why TKO Stock advanced +1.07% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash
TKO Group Holdings Inc. (TKO) carries a Roarable Rating of D+ (Sell) with 54/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.
🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief)
Is TKO stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
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As of 2026-11-03, TKO Group Holdings Inc. (NYSE: TKO) is rated D+ (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 54/100 at a spot price of $180.68 (+1.07% 1D, market cap $34.20B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 16/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 8/20, Executive Insider Alignment 14/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 7/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 9/20. Across 1011 tracked Consumer Discretionary issuers, TKO ranks #454 in composite RQD confidence.
🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief)
How does TKO compare to LYV and WMG in the Consumer Discretionary sector?
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Within the Consumer Discretionary sector (Services-Misc. Amusement & Recreation), TKO carries a Roarable D+ (54/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 61.9x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 9.9%. By comparison, LYV (Live Nation Entertainment Inc.) holds a C- grade (59/100 RQD, P/E 84.5x, ROIC 29.5%, cap $41.92B) and WMG (Warner Music Group Corp.) posts a D+ grade (54/100 RQD, P/E 43.7x, ROIC 14.3%, cap $16.02B). Among the 5-stock peer group, WMG leads on earnings multiple (43.7x) while LYV leads on capital efficiency (29.5% ROIC).
🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief)
What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for TKO?
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Per TKO's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001973266), TKO Group Holdings Inc. generated $4.74B in revenue (-3.1% YoY), $546.3M in net income, and $1.07B in free cash flow against $15.50B in total assets and $3.72B in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Strong cash generator (steady margins)—profits are backed by real money, not accounting tricks.. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.
Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer
SEC XBRL FY 2025 (10-K): 22.7% FCF Margin ($1.07B FCF) & 52% Gross Margin
Altman Z-Score 3.70 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) • Piotroski F-Score 8/9
Macro rate sensitivity & RSI-14 (53.9) create a -13 pt regime headwind
⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a TKO Turnaround Squeeze
While TKO currently carries a cautious 54/100 (D+) rating due to Macro Regime Fit (7/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.
Strong cash generator (steady margins)—profits are backed by real money, not accounting tricks.
Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($181.92) and Max Pain ($189.71) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $238.29.
Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Disciplined Float (-0.40% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.
Why TKO Stock advanced +1.07% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash
TKO Group Holdings Inc. (TKO) advanced +1.07% to $180.68, trading at 19% of its 52-week range ($170.14 – $226.94). Stretched risk/reward at 62x P/E (10% return on capital) under elevated 10-year interest-rate pressure.
- ▸Technical Tape: Trading at 19% of its 52-week range ($170.14 – $226.94) with RSI-14 at 53.9 (NEUTRAL RANGE).
- ▸Volatility Profile: Historical 20-day realized swing band of ±5.3% around $180.68 (no active unusual options sweep snapshot on file).
- ▸Fundamental Anchor: Roarable D+ (Sell) backed by 52% gross margin and $1.1B annual free cash flow.
Yahoo Finance report covering TKO Group Holdings Inc. (TKO) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
Investing.com report covering TKO Group Holdings Inc. (TKO) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
Seeking Alpha report covering TKO Group Holdings Inc. (TKO) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
Simply Wall St report covering TKO Group Holdings Inc. (TKO) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
HowStuffWorks report covering TKO Group Holdings Inc. (TKO) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
Benzinga report covering TKO Group Holdings Inc. (TKO) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
Claim Depot report covering TKO Group Holdings Inc. (TKO) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
TKO Group (TKO) doesn't possess the right combination of the two key ingredients for a likely earnings beat in its upcoming report. Get prepared with the key expectations.
BTIG analyst Tyler DiMatteo reiterates TKO Group Holdings (NYSE:TKO) with a Buy and maintains $237 price target.
Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring TKO)
- ✓Walkthrough of TKO's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
- ✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
- ✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks
TKO Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure
Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).
vs. -3.1% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).
No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on TKO today. View full Setup Ledger →
No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for TKO. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.
📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (TKO)
1. Head-to-Head Consumer Discretionary Peer Comparison (TKO vs. LYV, WMG, DKNG, LLYVK)
Industry: Services-Misc. Amusement & Recreation (51 Tracked Issuers)Across 1011 tracked Consumer Discretionary securities in the Roarable RQD universe, TKO Group Holdings Inc. (TKO) ranks #454 by composite RQD confidence (54/100, grade D+) and #63 by equity capitalization ($34.20B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, WMG leads on earnings valuation at 43.7x trailing P/E, while LYV leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 29.5% ROIC and — gross margin. LYV currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 59/100 (C-) compared with TKO at 54/100 (D+).
| Ticker / Company | Roarable Grade | RQD Score | Trailing P/E | Gross Margin | ROIC | 1D Change | Market Cap | Head-to-Head |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TKO
ACTIVE
TKO Group Holdings Inc. | D+ | 54/100 | 61.9x | — | 9.9% | +1.07% | $34.20B | Benchmark Subject |
| LYV Live Nation Entertainment Inc. | C- | 59/100 | 84.5x | — | 29.5% | +0.03% | $41.92B | /lyv-vs-tko → |
| WMG Warner Music Group Corp. | D+ | 54/100 | 43.7x | 45.8% | 14.3% | +0.49% | $16.02B | /wmg-vs-tko → |
| DKNG DraftKings Inc. | D- | 41/100 | — | 41.3% | -1.1% | +0.92% | $10.38B | /dkng-vs-tko → |
| LLYVK Liberty Live Holdings Inc. Series C Liberty Live Group | D- | 40/100 | — | 19.2% | -5.4% | +0.94% | $9.60B | /llyvk-vs-tko → |
2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)
SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001973266In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), TKO Group Holdings Inc. (TKO) reported GAAP revenue of $4.74B (-3.1% vs. FY2024 revenue of $4.88B , and +46.8% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $546.3M, operating cash flow of $1.29B, and free cash flow of $1.07B (+192.8% YoY). On the balance sheet, TKO closed FY2025 with $15.50B in total assets against $3.72B in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 3.70, Piotroski F-Score: 8/9).
| Fiscal Period | Filing Date | Revenue | Net Income | Operating Cash Flow | Free Cash Flow | Total Assets | Total Debt |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY2025 (FY) | 2025-12-31 | $4.74B | $546.3M | $1.29B | $1.07B | $15.50B | $3.72B |
| FY2024 (FY) | 2024-12-31 | $4.88B | $6.4M | $586.1M | $366.3M | $15.11B | $2.74B |
| FY2023 (FY) | 2023-12-31 | $3.22B | $175.7M | $266.2M | $121.0M | $18.61B | $4.35B |
3. TKO Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)
✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLEDIs TKO stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
As of 2026-11-03, TKO Group Holdings Inc. (NYSE: TKO) is rated D+ (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 54/100 at a spot price of $180.68 (+1.07% 1D, market cap $34.20B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 16/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 8/20, Executive Insider Alignment 14/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 7/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 9/20. Across 1011 tracked Consumer Discretionary issuers, TKO ranks #454 in composite RQD confidence.
How does TKO compare to LYV and WMG in the Consumer Discretionary sector?
Within the Consumer Discretionary sector (Services-Misc. Amusement & Recreation), TKO carries a Roarable D+ (54/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 61.9x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 9.9%. By comparison, LYV (Live Nation Entertainment Inc.) holds a C- grade (59/100 RQD, P/E 84.5x, ROIC 29.5%, cap $41.92B) and WMG (Warner Music Group Corp.) posts a D+ grade (54/100 RQD, P/E 43.7x, ROIC 14.3%, cap $16.02B). Among the 5-stock peer group, WMG leads on earnings multiple (43.7x) while LYV leads on capital efficiency (29.5% ROIC).
What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for TKO?
Per TKO's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001973266), TKO Group Holdings Inc. generated $4.74B in revenue (-3.1% YoY), $546.3M in net income, and $1.07B in free cash flow against $15.50B in total assets and $3.72B in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Strong cash generator (steady margins)—profits are backed by real money, not accounting tricks.. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.
Where is TKO trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?
TKO last traded at $180.68 (+1.07% on volume of 1,002,675 shares), positioning the stock -0.68% below its 50-day simple moving average ($181.92) and -6.33% below its 200-day simple moving average ($192.90). Across its 52-week range of $170.14 to $226.94, TKO sits at the 18.6% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 53.9 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±5.3% ($171.10 to $190.26).
TKO Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index
100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FREDWhy is TKO stock moving today?
Why TKO Stock advanced +1.07% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash. Stretched risk/reward at 62x P/E (10% return on capital) under elevated 10-year interest-rate pressure.
TKO — TKO Group Holdings Inc.: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor
Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor
Per the Roarable RQD rating, TKO scores 54 out of 100, earning a letter grade of D+ and the verdict label "Roarable Sell — Weak Fundamentals / Trim." Across the five pillars, the fundamental cash engine scores 16 out of 20, reflecting an ROIC of 9.9% and an FCF yield of 3.17%. The whale 13F flow pillar scores 8 out of 20 for institutional accumulation and options positioning. The insider conviction pillar scores 9 out of 20 based on SEC Form 4 and Congressional PTR cluster flow. The macro regime fit pillar scores 7 out of 20, reflecting a beta of 1.1 and sector sensitivity. The forensic balance sheet pillar scores 14 out of 20, supported by an Altman Z-Score of 3.7, a Piotroski F-Score of 8 out of 9, and a Debt/Equity ratio of 1.
For a prospective investor evaluating the stock today, the pattern is a business with reasonable cash generation and a balance sheet that the rating treats as sound, paired with weak signals from institutional flow, insider activity, and macro fit. The upside case rests mainly on the cash engine and balance sheet pillars. The valuation tradeoff is visible in the market data: per the market data section, trailing P/E is 61.9 and forward P/E is 57.6, while EV/EBITDA is 36.1. Those multiples are high relative to the fundamental cash engine score, so the rating implies that expectations embedded in the price are demanding. The weak whale flow and insider pillars suggest that sophisticated participants in the source data are not showing conviction, which is the basis for the rating's trim verdict.
Snapshot
Financial Trend
| Period | Revenue | Operating Income | Net Income | EPS | FCF | Cash | Debt |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY 2025 | $4735.2M | $835.0M | $546.3M | N/A | $1072.6M | $831.1M | $3724.1M |
| FY 2024 | $4884.2M | $30.9M | $6.4M | N/A | $366.3M | $619.8M | $2735.3M |
| FY 2023 | $3224.8M | $375.8M | $175.7M | N/A | $121.0M | N/A | $4354.7M |
Per the SEC financials, operating income rose from $30.9M in FY 2024 to $835.0M in FY 2025, and net income moved from $6.4M to $546.3M over the same period. Per the market data section, operating margin is 17.6% and net margin is 11.5%, while gross margin is reported as 0%. Per the Roarable RQD rating, ROIC is 9.9%, the Altman Z-Score is 3.7, and the Piotroski F-Score is 8 out of 9. Debt was $3724.1M against cash of $831.1M at FY 2025, and the rating reports a Debt/Equity ratio of 1.
Recent Catalysts & News Wire Analysis
Per the recent news and catalysts section, the most prominent item is a Seeking Alpha report, flagged as a CATALYST and marked GREEN, describing Service Properties stock rising after TKO offered to buy a hospitality portfolio for $2B. Other items are flagged YELLOW as MARKET WIRE and include a Trefis piece questioning whether the stock is expensive, a Yahoo Finance earnings preview, an Investing.com report that the stock hit a 52-week low at 170.89 USD, a Simply Wall St forecast piece, and a HowStuffWorks piece on WWE's ownership chain involving TKO and Endeavor. The 52-week low headline is consistent with the 52-week range of $170.14 - $226.94 in the market data. The butterfly supply-chain graph reports a supply chain of NONE, with no butterfly links and no proprietary signals.
Open Questions
- What specific business lines and customers generate the reported $4735.2M of FY 2025 revenue?
- Why does the FY 2025 EPS field read N/A when net income is reported at $546.3M, and what is the reported share count?
- What drove the sharp swing in net income from $6.4M in FY 2024 to $546.3M in FY 2025, and is that change recurring?
- What is the source of the gross margin figure of 0%, and does it reflect the reporting structure of the company?
- What are the terms, timing, and financing of the proposed $2B hospitality portfolio acquisition referenced in the catalyst news?
TKO Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire
Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for TKO Group Holdings Inc. (TKO) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below
Trefis report covering TKO Group Holdings Inc. (TKO) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
Yahoo Finance report covering TKO Group Holdings Inc. (TKO) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
Investing.com report covering TKO Group Holdings Inc. (TKO) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
Seeking Alpha report covering TKO Group Holdings Inc. (TKO) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
Simply Wall St report covering TKO Group Holdings Inc. (TKO) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
HowStuffWorks report covering TKO Group Holdings Inc. (TKO) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
Benzinga report covering TKO Group Holdings Inc. (TKO) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
Claim Depot report covering TKO Group Holdings Inc. (TKO) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
TKO Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $180.68?
🔥 Official Bull vs. Bear Debate: Is TKO (D+ • RQD 54/100) a Buy at $178.77?
Welcome to the TKO (TKO Group Holdings Inc.) Roar Pit. Current RQD Composite is 54/100 (Roarable Sell — Weak Fundamentals / Trim) in Services-Misc. Amusement & Recreation. Bulls point to operating leverage and sector positioning, while bears focus on valuation multiple compression (61.9x trailing P/E). Pick your side (🐂 Bull or 🐻 Bear) and drop your price target below.
Pump the brakes on TKO — check the valuation vs. margin headwinds
Everyone in here is repeating the bull case on TKO, but look at what you are paying: 61.9x trailing P/E with tightening sector spreads. Unless TKO Group Holdings Inc. expands free cash flow yield next quarter, I would rather wait for a pullback closer to the 200-day moving average before touching this.
TKO cash flow & RQD setup is being underpriced by the Street here
Looking at the 5-pillar RQD breakdown on TKO, the market is fixating on short-term headline noise in Services-Misc. Amusement & Recreation and ignoring the balance sheet and cash flow trajectory. At $178.77 (52-wk range $170.14 - $226.94), any beat on forward guidance forces shorts and underweight funds to chase.