Hanover Insurance Group Inc (THG) Dividend Safety Gauge & 10-Year DRIP Compounder

$242.09 +2.96% NYSE β€’ Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $243.96

Hanover Insurance Group Inc (THG) earns a Roarable Rating of B+ (Buy) with 77/100 RQD Confidence. High-quality cash engine (steady margins, 9% return on capital) with steady institutional support. The company’s underlying cash engine and institutional positioning keep the composite score in the Green Buy zone.

ROARABLE B+ β€’ BUY Cap $8.32B
πŸ“€ Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card
⚑ INSTANT AI QUANT PREVIEW β€’ $0 FREE TIER Click Any Pre-Computed AI Quant Specialist Briefing on THG Below β€” or Connect Your Own ChatGPT / Claude
πŸ€– Mara Quenwick β€’ AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is THG stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
β–Ό

As of 2026-11-03, Hanover Insurance Group Inc (NYSE: THG) is rated B+ (Buy / BUY) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 77/100 at a spot price of $242.09 (+2.96% 1D, market cap $8.32B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 14/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 17/20, Executive Insider Alignment 15/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 14/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 17/20. Across 1096 tracked Financials issuers, THG ranks #18 in composite RQD confidence.

βœ“ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
πŸ€– Ellis Vennor β€’ AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does THG compare to KNSL and AXS in the Financials sector?
β–Ό

Within the Financials sector (Property-Casualty Insurers), THG carries a Roarable B+ (77/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 12.4x, gross margin of β€”, and ROIC of 9.1%. By comparison, KNSL (Kinsale Capital Group Inc.) holds a B+ grade (78/100 RQD, P/E 16.2x, ROIC 13.8%, cap $8.23B) and AXS (Axis Capital Holdings Limited) posts a D grade (48/100 RQD, P/E 7.3x, ROIC 5.6%, cap $7.52B). Among the 5-stock peer group, AXS leads on earnings multiple (7.3x) while KNSL leads on capital efficiency (13.8% ROIC).

βœ“ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
πŸ€– Gideon Ashmere β€’ AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for THG?
β–Ό

Per THG's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0000944695), Hanover Insurance Group Inc generated $6.59B in revenue (+5.7% YoY), $662.5M in net income, and $1.17B in free cash flow against $16.95B in total assets and $6.02B in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Big institutional funds and options desks are actively positioning on the bullish side.. Primary risk factors monitored: Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

βœ“ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
πŸ€– AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists β€” not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
πŸ›‘οΈ Portfolio Crash X-Ray
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $243.95 (+0.77%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-2.64% YoY Shares)βš™οΈ Cash Engine: 14/20 (B-) β€’ 17.7% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit β†’
πŸ“Š Historical Track Record: Scores of 77/100 (B+) historically ranked in the Top 10% of excess returns over the next 90 days (+7.8% avg 90D alpha vs SPY β€’ 70.3% hit rate).
Audit Bucket Track Record β†’
RQD QUANT TACHOMETERBUY β€’ B+
025507510077
3-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bullish
Cash
SEC
Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) β€” not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw B+ Β· Rk B
Cash (14)Whales (17)SEC (15)Macro (14)CEO (17)
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE+8.6% Base Target
$310 Bull$263 Base$199 Bear
πŸ“¬ FREE THG RATING-CHANGE & BRIEFING ALERTSManage / Unsubscribe
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: β€” (No Active Options Snapshot on file for THG)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: Β±3.9%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (77/100 Composite)
πŸ” WHY THG SCORES 77/100 (B+) β€” TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
β–² #1 Bullish Driver: Whale & Options Positioning+17/20 pts (22% of score)

20D Institutional Volume Accumulation (Β±3.9% realized swing band)

β–² #2 Bullish Driver: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution+17/20 pts (22% of score)

SEC Form 4 / 13F Thermometer: 85% Net Buy β€’ Cannibal Buyback (-2.64% YoY Shares)

β–Ό #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Macro Regime Fit14/20 pts (-6 pt drag)

Macro rate sensitivity & RSI-14 (63.2) create a -6 pt regime headwind

πŸ“ˆ PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 β†’ Q2 β†’ Q3 β†’ Current
Q1 (-3Q)
69
Grade B-$226.17+2.5% Next Q
Q2 (-2Q)
72
Grade B$231.93+0.6% Next Q
Q3 (-1Q)
74
Grade B+$233.26+3.8% Next Q
Current
77
Grade B+$242.09+7.8% Hist 90D Ξ±
Trajectory: B- (69) β†’ B+ (77)Full Audit β†’
βš”οΈ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER

βš”οΈ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the THG Bull Thesis Could Fail

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk β†’

Even with a 77/100 (B+) score, THG faces multiple-compression risk if 12.4x trailing P/E re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1

Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2

Dilution & Margin Drag: Cannibal Buyback (-2.64% YoY Shares) β€” any gross margin slip below 49.5% triggers an automatic RQD downgrade.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3

Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($227.09) or 200D SMA ($201.18) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($262.79) toward Bear Floor ($198.51).

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $THGβ€’ $2.4M Crowd Pool β€’ Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: β€œTHG Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
CASH DIVIDEND + BUYBACK YIELD
3.4% Total Yield
1.6% Cash ($3.87/yr) + 1.8% Buybacks
PAYOUT SAFETY SPEEDOMETER
88/100 β€’ FORTRESS PAYOUT
FREE CASH FLOW PAYOUT RATIO
14% of FCF
8 consecutive years of payout growth
INTERACTIVE DRIP & SHAREHOLDER-YIELD COMPOUNDER (6.9% EST. ANNUAL)

$10,000 Compounded Over 10 Years β†’ $19,488

Est. Year-10 Shareholder Yield: $663/yr
$10.7K
Yr 1
$11.4K
Yr 2
$12.2K
Yr 3
$13.1K
Yr 4
$14.0K
Yr 5
$14.9K
Yr 6
$16.0K
Yr 7
$17.1K
Yr 8
$18.2K
Yr 9
$19.5K
Yr 10
ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP β€’ SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher + Cash-Flow & Quality Compounder Desk

Cash-Fortress Compounders: Auditing Free Cash Flow & Yield Safety in THG & A-Rated Leaders

  • βœ“12-month Bull/Base/Bear fair-value walkthrough on THG and its top sector peer
  • βœ“Top Roarable A-Rated cash compounders with verified executive & 13F accumulation
  • βœ“Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts
RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED
Want Custom AI PineScript / Python Indicators & Priority Rating-Change Alerts?
THG // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +32.09%⚑ TESTING RESISTANCE
2026-11-03O $235.1H $242.1L $235.1C $242.1VOL 431.3K
RES: $243.3SUP: $210.8SMA50: $227.1SMA200: $201.2
$247.2$227.9$208.7$189.5$170.3RES $243.3SUP $210.8$242.12026-05-042026-06-182026-08-052026-09-212026-11-03
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

THG Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)
3.2%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +5.7% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on THG today. View full Setup Ledger β†’

πŸ¦‹ Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph β†’

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for THG. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for THG today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk β†’
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT β€’ SEC EDGAR XBRL Γ— RQD PEER BENCHMARK

πŸ“Š Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (THG)

1. Head-to-Head Financials Peer Comparison (THG vs. KNSL, AXS, ORI, ESNT)

Industry: Property-Casualty Insurers (68 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1096 tracked Financials securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Hanover Insurance Group Inc (THG) ranks #18 by composite RQD confidence (77/100, grade B+) and #211 by equity capitalization ($8.32B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, AXS leads on earnings valuation at 7.3x trailing P/E, while KNSL leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 13.8% ROIC and β€” gross margin. KNSL currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 78/100 (B+) compared with THG at 77/100 (B+).

Ticker / Company Roarable Grade RQD Score Trailing P/E Gross Margin ROIC 1D Change Market Cap Head-to-Head
THG ACTIVE
Hanover Insurance Group Inc
B+ 77/100 12.4x β€” 9.1% +2.96% $8.32B Benchmark Subject
KNSL
Kinsale Capital Group Inc.
B+ 78/100 16.2x β€” 13.8% +0.76% $8.23B /knsl-vs-thg β†’
AXS
Axis Capital Holdings Limited
D 48/100 7.3x β€” 5.6% +1.97% $7.52B /axs-vs-thg β†’
ORI
Old Republic International Corporation
C- 61/100 9.9x β€” 7.3% +0.21% $9.30B /ori-vs-thg β†’
ESNT
Essent Group Ltd.
B+ 77/100 8.8x β€” 11.9% -0.86% $6.02B /esnt-vs-thg β†’

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K β€’ FILED 2025-12-31 β€’ CIK 0000944695

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Hanover Insurance Group Inc (THG) reported GAAP revenue of $6.59B (+5.7% vs. FY2024 revenue of $6.24B , and +10.0% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $662.5M, operating cash flow of $1.18B, and free cash flow of $1.17B (+47.0% YoY). On the balance sheet, THG closed FY2025 with $16.95B in total assets against $6.02B in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 8/9).

Fiscal Period Filing Date Revenue Net Income Operating Cash Flow Free Cash Flow Total Assets Total Debt
FY2025 (FY) 2025-12-31 $6.59B $662.5M $1.18B $1.17B $16.95B $6.02B
FY2024 (FY) 2024-12-31 $6.24B $426.0M $806.4M $796.2M $15.27B $5.59B
FY2023 (FY) 2023-12-31 $5.99B $35.3M $361.7M $92.0M $7.19B $1.68B

3. THG Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

βœ“ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is THG stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-03, Hanover Insurance Group Inc (NYSE: THG) is rated B+ (Buy / BUY) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 77/100 at a spot price of $242.09 (+2.96% 1D, market cap $8.32B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 14/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 17/20, Executive Insider Alignment 15/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 14/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 17/20. Across 1096 tracked Financials issuers, THG ranks #18 in composite RQD confidence.

How does THG compare to KNSL and AXS in the Financials sector?

Within the Financials sector (Property-Casualty Insurers), THG carries a Roarable B+ (77/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 12.4x, gross margin of β€”, and ROIC of 9.1%. By comparison, KNSL (Kinsale Capital Group Inc.) holds a B+ grade (78/100 RQD, P/E 16.2x, ROIC 13.8%, cap $8.23B) and AXS (Axis Capital Holdings Limited) posts a D grade (48/100 RQD, P/E 7.3x, ROIC 5.6%, cap $7.52B). Among the 5-stock peer group, AXS leads on earnings multiple (7.3x) while KNSL leads on capital efficiency (13.8% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for THG?

Per THG's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0000944695), Hanover Insurance Group Inc generated $6.59B in revenue (+5.7% YoY), $662.5M in net income, and $1.17B in free cash flow against $16.95B in total assets and $6.02B in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Big institutional funds and options desks are actively positioning on the bullish side.. Primary risk factors monitored: Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is THG trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

THG last traded at $242.09 (+2.96% on volume of 431,313 shares), positioning the stock +6.61% above its 50-day simple moving average ($227.09) and +20.34% above its 200-day simple moving average ($201.18). Across its 52-week range of $166.54 to $242.54, THG sits at the 99.4% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 63.2 (BULLISH MOMENTUM) and an implied next-earnings move of Β±3.9% ($232.65 to $251.53).

THG Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index

100% OPEN ACCESS β€’ SEC EDGAR Γ— CBOE Γ— FRED

Does THG pay a dividend and is it safe?

Hanover Insurance Group Inc (THG) offers a 1.6% cash dividend yield ($3.87 annualized) and 3.4% total shareholder yield including buybacks. Roarable rates its payout coverage as FORTRESS PAYOUT.

ROARABLE RATING BRIEF β€’ RQD 77/100 (B+) βœ“ STAGE-C NUMBER FIREWALL VERIFIED

THG β€” Hanover Insurance Group Inc: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Engine: anthropic/claude-haiku-5.5
As of: 2026-11-02T15:17:41Z

Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

Per the Roarable RQD rating, THG scores 77 out of 100, a B+ grade, labeled "Roarable Buy β€” Very Good Cash & Smart-Money Inflow." The five pillars are: Fundamental Cash Engine at 14/20 (ROIC 9.1%; FCF yield 14.3%), Whale 13F Flow at 17/20 (institutional accumulation and options positioning), Insider Conviction at 17/20 (SEC Form 4 and Congressional PTR cluster flow), Macro Regime Fit at 14/20 (Beta 1.01; sector sensitivity), and Forensic Balance Sheet at 15/20 (Altman Z 2.5; Piotroski F 8/9; Debt/Equity 0.5).

For a prospective investor, the strongest pillars are the two smart-money measures (17/20 each), which indicate that institutional and insider activity is currently read as net positive. The cash-generation pillar is solid but less dominant at 14/20, and the macro pillar at 14/20 reflects a beta near market levels, meaning the stock is unlikely to diverge sharply from broad market moves on the rating's inputs. The forensic balance sheet score of 15/20 points to a healthy Piotroski reading and moderate leverage. The RQD framework is an analytical summary and does not constitute a recommendation; upside drivers implied by the scores include continued institutional accumulation and cash conversion, while valuation tradeoffs are reflected in the 14.3% FCF yield set against a 13.5x EV/EBITDA multiple and a stock trading near the top of its 52-week range.

Snapshot

MetricValue
Price235.12
Market Cap$8.19B
P/E (TTM)12.4
Forward P/E11.5
EV/EBITDA13.5
EPS (TTM)19.03
Dividend Yield1.6%
Beta1.01
52-Wk Range$166.54 - $242.54
ROIC %9.1%

Financial Trend

PeriodRevenueOperating IncomeNet IncomeEPSFCFCashDebt
FY 2025$6594.4M$933.0M$662.5MN/A$1170.4M$1122.7M$6018.5M
FY 2024$6237.4M$650.1M$426.0MN/A$796.2M$435.5M$5594.7M
FY 2023$5993.5M$105.6M$35.3MN/A$92.0MN/A$1683.0M

Per the SEC financials, net income rose from $35.3M in FY 2023 to $662.5M in FY 2025, and operating income from $105.6M to $933.0M over the same span. Per the market data, operating margin is 14.1%, net margin is 10%, and ROIC is 9.1%. Per the Roarable RQD rating, the Altman Z-Score is 2.5 and the Piotroski F-Score is 8/9, with Debt/Equity at 0.5. Reported debt rose from $1683.0M in FY 2023 to $6018.5M in FY 2025, a pattern worth monitoring alongside the improving cash position.

Recent Catalysts & News Wire Analysis

  • CATALYST (GREEN): Investing.com reported a price target raise by Citizens on strong Q3 results.
  • MARKET WIRE (YELLOW): Yahoo Finance reported on whether THG is undervalued at current levels.
  • RISK WATCH (RED): TradingView reported a 12-month price target cut to $237, implying 8% upside.
  • MARKET WIRE (YELLOW): Yahoo Finance reported that the stock looks stretched after a 115% run.
  • RISK WATCH (RED): Seeking Alpha characterized the company as showing strong execution but limited upside at current levels.
  • MARKET WIRE (YELLOW): Yahoo Finance reported the stock hit a fresh high and asked whether there is still room to run.

The news flow is mixed: one green catalyst (a target raise), two red risk-watch items centered on limited upside and a target cut, and three yellow market-wire items focused on valuation and momentum. Per the Butterfly Supply-Chain Graph, supply chain is listed as NONE, with no butterfly links and no proprietary signals.

Open Questions

  • What is the consensus analyst rating and price-target distribution, given that the analyst data is not provided?
  • Which specific institutional holders, insider transactions, and Congressional trades underlie the 17/20 smart-money scores?
  • What drove the increase in reported debt from $1683.0M (FY 2023) to $6018.5M (FY 2025), and how is it being serviced?
  • Why is EPS reported as N/A across all periods, and how does it reconcile with the EPS (TTM) of 19.03?
  • What is the company's business mix, revenue drivers, and key underwriting or catastrophe exposures?

THG Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for Hanover Insurance Group Inc (THG) β€’ Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

πŸ’¬ Jump to THG Debate Forum (3) ↓
πŸ”₯ THE ROAR PIT β€’ LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

THG Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board β€” What's Your Call at $242.09?

πŸ‚ 67% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON THG 🐻 33% BEARISH CONVICTION
1. Pick Your Side on THG:
πŸ’‘ Tip: Back up your call with a price target or RQD metric to get upvoted to the top.
RO RoarDesk_Moderator Roarable Research Desk πŸ‚ BULLISH 🎯 Target: $277.44 (+18.0%)
πŸ“Œ Pinned Debate

πŸ”₯ Official Bull vs. Bear Debate: Is THG (B+ β€’ RQD 77/100) a Buy at $235.12?

Welcome to the THG (Hanover Insurance Group Inc) Roar Pit. Current RQD Composite is 77/100 (Roarable Buy β€” Very Good Cash & Smart-Money Inflow) in Property-Casualty Insurers. Bulls point to operating leverage and sector positioning, while bears focus on macro rate sensitivity and margin execution. Pick your side (πŸ‚ Bull or 🐻 Bear) and drop your price target below.

VA ValDiscipline Forensic Accounting Watch 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $176.34 (-25.0%)
Spot @ $235.12

Pump the brakes on THG β€” check the valuation vs. margin headwinds

Everyone in here is repeating the bull case on THG, but look at what you are paying: 12.4x trailing P/E with tightening sector spreads. Unless Hanover Insurance Group Inc expands free cash flow yield next quarter, I would rather wait for a pullback closer to the 200-day moving average before touching this.

DE DeltaGamma_99 Verified K Arena Trader πŸ‚ BULLISH 🎯 Target: $289.20 (+23.0%)
Spot @ $235.12

THG cash flow & RQD setup is being underpriced by the Street here

Looking at the 5-pillar RQD breakdown on THG, the market is fixating on short-term headline noise in Property-Casualty Insurers and ignoring the balance sheet and cash flow trajectory. At $235.12 (52-wk range $166.54 - $242.54), any beat on forward guidance forces shorts and underweight funds to chase.

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