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Stock Ratings / Consumer Discretionary / TGT / forecast
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Target Corporation (TGT) 12-Month Stock Forecast & Price Target Cone

$158.38 +2.59% NYSE • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $158.82

Target Corporation (TGT) carries a Roarable Rating of C+ (Hold) with 68/100 RQD Confidence. The composite score sits in the neutral Hold band (59–69), meaning current holders don’t need to panic-sell while prospective buyers can wait for a move into the 70+ Buy zone.

ROARABLE C+ • HOLD / WATCH Cap $70.13B
📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card
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🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is TGT stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
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As of 2026-11-03, Target Corporation (NYSE: TGT) is rated C+ (Hold / HOLD) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 68/100 at a spot price of $158.38 (+2.59% 1D, market cap $70.13B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 14/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 14/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 14/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 11/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 15/20. Across 1009 tracked Consumer Discretionary issuers, TGT ranks #176 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does TGT compare to DG and DLTR in the Consumer Discretionary sector?
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Within the Consumer Discretionary sector (Department/Specialty Retail Stores), TGT carries a Roarable C+ (68/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 18.6x, gross margin of 27.9%, and ROIC of 19.2%. By comparison, DG (Dollar General Corporation) holds a B grade (75/100 RQD, P/E 19.0x, ROIC 10.4%, cap $29.19B) and DLTR (Dollar Tree Inc.) posts a B+ grade (80/100 RQD, P/E 19.3x, ROIC 23.9%, cap $25.12B). Among the 5-stock peer group, TGT leads on earnings multiple (18.6x) while BJ leads on capital efficiency (25.3% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for TGT?
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Per TGT's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2026-01-31, CIK 0000027419), Target Corporation generated $104.78B in revenue (-1.7% YoY), $3.71B in net income, and $2.83B in free cash flow against $59.49B in total assets and $13.92B in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction. Primary risk factors monitored: Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $158.82 (+0.28%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-2.08% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 14/20 (B-) • 2.7% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →
📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 68/100 (C+) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (+1.8% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 56.9% hit rate — wait for RQD ≥ 70 breakout).
Audit Bucket Track Record →
RQD QUANT TACHOMETERHOLD / WATCH • C+
025507510068
3-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bullish
Cash
SEC
Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw B · Rk C
Cash (14)Whales (14)SEC (14)Macro (11)CEO (15)
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE+4.5% Base Target
$195 Bull$166 Base$129 Bear
📬 FREE TGT RATING-CHANGE & BRIEFING ALERTSManage / Unsubscribe
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for TGT)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±5.8%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (68/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY TGT SCORES 68/100 (C+) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution+15/20 pts (22% of score)

SEC Form 4 / 13F Thermometer: 75% Net Buy • Cannibal Buyback (-2.08% YoY Shares)

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Cash Engine Quality+14/20 pts (21% of score)

SEC XBRL FY 2025 (10-K): 2.7% FCF Margin ($2.83B FCF) & 27.9% Gross Margin

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Macro Regime Fit11/20 pts (-9 pt drag)

Macro rate sensitivity & RSI-14 (51.6) create a -9 pt regime headwind

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)
60
Grade C$155.31-1.9% Next Q
Q2 (-2Q)
63
Grade C+$152.38-2.2% Next Q
Q3 (-1Q)
65
Grade C+$148.96+6.3% Next Q
Current
68
Grade C+$158.38+1.8% Hist 90D α
Trajectory: C (60) → C+ (68)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the TGT Bull Thesis Could Fail

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

Even with a 68/100 (C+) score, TGT faces multiple-compression risk if 18.6x trailing P/E re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1

Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2

Dilution & Margin Drag: Cannibal Buyback (-2.08% YoY Shares) — any gross margin slip below 25.4% triggers an automatic RQD downgrade.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3

Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($156.33) or 200D SMA ($134.65) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($165.51) toward Bear Floor ($129.10).

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $TGT• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “TGT Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Jan 30, 2027) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
YES 68%NO 32%Trade / Inspect Odds →
INTERACTIVE 12-MONTH POSITION SIMULATOR

Drag to Test Your TGT Position Size: $10,000

Shares at $158.38: 63.1 sh
$1,000$10,000$25,000$50,000$100,000
12M Bear Case FloorTarget $129.10
$8,151
$-1,849 (-18.5%)
12M Consensus BaseTarget $165.51
$10,450
+$450 (+4.5%)
12M Bull Case BreakoutTarget $195.30
$12,331
+$2,331 (+23.3%)

Wall Street Analyst Breakdown & Historical Accuracy Audit (28 Desks)

Street Historical Accuracy: 64/100
● Strong Buy / Buy: 17● Hold: 9● Sell: 2
Wall Street FirmStance12M Target1Y AccuracyTrack Grade
Morgan StanleyInstitutional Equity DeskHOLD$17274%A
Goldman SachsSector Coverage LeadBUY$18469%B
JP MorganUS Large-Cap ResearchHOLD$14758%C
ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Quantitative Research Desk

Scheduled RQD Strong Buys & Whale Accumulation Briefing (TGT Tape Review)

  • ✓Breakdown of the highest-scoring RQD Green-Light breakouts across our 5,200+ rated universe
  • ✓Forensic Red-Light accounting & dilution traps to review on your watchlist
  • ✓Includes downloadable .ics calendar invite & nightly RQD rating-change email alerts
RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED
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TGT // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +23.97%▲ RESISTANCE BREAKOUT
2026-11-03O $151.8H $158.4L $151.8C $158.4VOL 5.27M
RES: $155.7SUP: $146.6SMA50: $156.3SMA200: $134.7
$175.4$156.0$136.5$117.0$97.58RES $155.7SUP $146.6$158.42026-05-042026-06-182026-08-052026-09-212026-11-03
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

TGT Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 TGT Butterfly Map → + Track TGT →
Share Count & Dilution Monitor

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle
11.9%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. -1.7% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on TGT today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for TGT. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for TGT today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (TGT)

Consumer Discretionary Rank #176 of 1009 ⚔️ DG vs TGT Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Consumer Discretionary Peer Comparison (TGT vs. DG, DLTR, BURL, BJ)

Industry: Department/Specialty Retail Stores (11 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1009 tracked Consumer Discretionary securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Target Corporation (TGT) ranks #176 by composite RQD confidence (68/100, grade C+) and #34 by equity capitalization ($70.13B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, TGT leads on earnings valuation at 18.6x trailing P/E, while BJ leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 25.3% ROIC and 18.6% gross margin. BJ currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 82/100 (A-) compared with TGT at 68/100 (C+).

Ticker / Company Roarable Grade RQD Score Trailing P/E Gross Margin ROIC 1D Change Market Cap Head-to-Head
TGT ACTIVE
Target Corporation
C+ 68/100 18.6x 27.9% 19.2% +2.59% $70.13B Benchmark Subject
DG
Dollar General Corporation
B 75/100 19.0x 30.7% 10.4% +2.63% $29.19B /dg-vs-tgt →
DLTR
Dollar Tree Inc.
B+ 80/100 19.3x 36.4% 23.9% +3.53% $25.12B /dltr-vs-tgt →
BURL
Burlington Stores Inc.
D+ 57/100 25.0x 43.8% 22.8% +0.71% $14.89B /burl-vs-tgt →
BJ
BJ's Wholesale Club Holdings Inc.
A- 82/100 23.0x 18.6% 25.3% +3.12% $13.56B /bj-vs-tgt →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2026-01-31 • CIK 0000027419 ↗

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2026-01-31), Target Corporation (TGT) reported GAAP revenue of $104.78B (-1.7% vs. FY2024 revenue of $106.57B , and -2.5% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $3.71B, operating cash flow of $6.56B, and free cash flow of $2.83B (-36.7% YoY). On the balance sheet, TGT closed FY2025 with $59.49B in total assets against $13.92B in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 3.69, Piotroski F-Score: 5/9).

Fiscal Period Filing Date Revenue Net Income Operating Cash Flow Free Cash Flow Total Assets Total Debt
FY2025 (FY) 2026-01-31 $104.78B $3.71B $6.56B $2.83B $59.49B $13.92B
FY2024 (FY) 2025-02-01 $106.57B $4.09B $7.37B $4.48B $57.77B $13.52B
FY2023 (FY) 2024-02-03 $107.41B $4.14B $8.62B $3.79B $128.89B $30.16B

3. TGT Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is TGT stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-03, Target Corporation (NYSE: TGT) is rated C+ (Hold / HOLD) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 68/100 at a spot price of $158.38 (+2.59% 1D, market cap $70.13B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 14/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 14/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 14/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 11/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 15/20. Across 1009 tracked Consumer Discretionary issuers, TGT ranks #176 in composite RQD confidence.

How does TGT compare to DG and DLTR in the Consumer Discretionary sector?

Within the Consumer Discretionary sector (Department/Specialty Retail Stores), TGT carries a Roarable C+ (68/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 18.6x, gross margin of 27.9%, and ROIC of 19.2%. By comparison, DG (Dollar General Corporation) holds a B grade (75/100 RQD, P/E 19.0x, ROIC 10.4%, cap $29.19B) and DLTR (Dollar Tree Inc.) posts a B+ grade (80/100 RQD, P/E 19.3x, ROIC 23.9%, cap $25.12B). Among the 5-stock peer group, TGT leads on earnings multiple (18.6x) while BJ leads on capital efficiency (25.3% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for TGT?

Per TGT's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2026-01-31, CIK 0000027419), Target Corporation generated $104.78B in revenue (-1.7% YoY), $3.71B in net income, and $2.83B in free cash flow against $59.49B in total assets and $13.92B in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction. Primary risk factors monitored: Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is TGT trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

TGT last traded at $158.38 (+2.59% on volume of 4,279,620 shares), positioning the stock +1.31% above its 50-day simple moving average ($156.33) and +17.62% above its 200-day simple moving average ($134.65). Across its 52-week range of $83.44 to $170.75, TGT sits at the 85.8% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 51.6 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±5.8% ($149.19 to $167.57).

Direct Sub-Reports: TGT RQD Cockpit TGT 12M Forecast TGT Earnings & Move TGT Dividends & DRIP TGT Insiders & 13F TGT Whale Options TGT Profit Sankey TGT News & Why
ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 68/100 (C+) ✓ SEC XBRL & RQD VERIFIED

TGT — Target Corporation: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Methodology: RQD v6.2 Deterministic 5-Pillar & SEC XBRL Audit
Updated: 2026-01-31

1. Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

Target Corporation (TGT) earns a live Roarable RQD composite score of 68/100, corresponding to a C+ letter grade (Roarable Hold) at a spot price of $158.38 (+2.59% 1D, market capitalization $70.13B).

  • Fundamental Cash Engine (14/20): Anchored by return on invested capital (ROIC) of 19.2%, gross margin of 27.9%, operating margin of 4.9%, and free cash flow yield of 4.11%.
  • Whale 13F & Options Flow (14/20) + Insider Conviction (15/20): Tracks institutional 13F accumulation, CBOE options call/put positioning, and SEC Form 4 / Congressional PTR filings.
  • Macro Regime Fit (11/20) + Forensic Balance Sheet (14/20): Incorporates a 1.01x equity beta, Altman Z-Score of 3.69, Piotroski F-Score of 5/9, and Debt/Equity of 0.74x.

2. Business Model, Unit Margins & SEC Financial Trajectory

Target Corporation is a NYSE-listed issuer classified under the Consumer Discretionary sector and the Department/Specialty Retail Stores industry. Its reported revenue of $104.78B for FY 2025 indicates a large-scale retail operation.

In its latest audited SEC EDGAR 10-K filing for FY2025 (filed 2026-01-31), Target Corporation (TGT) reported $104.78B in annual revenue (up from $106.57B in FY2024, -1.7% YoY) and $3.71B in GAAP net income. Over the multi-year SEC filing window from FY2023 ($107.41B revenue, $4.14B net income) through FY2025, TGT scaled operating cash flow to $6.56B and free cash flow to $2.83B, backed by $59.49B in total assets against $13.92B in total debt.

3. Institutional Bull vs. Bear Thesis & Valuation Tradeoff

  • 🐂 Primary Bull Case (C+ • RQD 68/100): Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction. Free cash flow yield of 4.11% and institutional whale pillar of 14/20. With Fundamental Cash Engine at 14/20 and Institutional Whale Flow at 14/20, sustained execution supports upside toward the upper end of the $83.44 – $170.75 52-week range.
  • 🐻 Primary Bear Case & Valuation Risk: Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run. Investors must weigh 18.6x trailing P/E and 8.9x EV/EBITDA against 4.9% operating margins and a 1.01x macro beta.

4. 2nd-Order Butterfly Ripples & Key Questions to Watch

Sector correlations beyond the stated beta of 1.

  • Key Question #1: Can TGT sustain or expand its 4.9% operating margin and 19.2% ROIC against Department/Specialty Retail Stores peers over the next 4 quarters?
  • Key Question #2: Following FY2025 revenue of $104.78B and free cash flow of $2.83B, how will capital allocation balance growth reinvestment against $13.92B in total debt?
  • Key Question #3: How sensitive is TGT's 17.3x forward P/E multiple to Consumer Discretionary capital spending cycles and macro interest-rate shifts (Beta 1.01x)?

TGT Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for Target Corporation (TGT) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to TGT Debate Forum (3) ↓
🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

TGT Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $158.38?

🐂 67% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON TGT 🐻 33% BEARISH CONVICTION
1. Pick Your Side on TGT:
💡 Tip: Back up your call with a price target or RQD metric to get upvoted to the top.
CA CashFlowKing RQD DEBATE OPENER • FCF Compounder Hunter 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $194.52 (+26.0%)
📌 Pinned Debate

Strong 19.2% ROIC and constructive insider-flow signal support a sound, cash-generative business at 17.3x forward earnings.

Long TGT at $154.38 targeting $194.52. Strong 19.2% ROIC and constructive insider-flow signal support a sound, cash-generative business at 17.3x forward earnings.. Institutional whale score is 14/20 and the risk/reward vs. the $83.44 52-week low is skewed heavily in favor of bulls.

CapAlloc_Nerd 🐂 BULL

@SkepticalCFA Fair point on 18.6x trailing P/E, but you're ignoring the forward operating leverage in Department/Specialty Retail Stores. If gross margin (27.9%) holds, EPS grows into the multiple faster than bears think.

SK SkepticalCFA RQD DEBATE OPENER • Fundamental Contrarian 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $120.42 (-22.0%)
Spot @ $154.38

Thin 4.9% operating margin, declining revenue and net income since FY 2023, and beta of 1.01 leave little earnings cushion or defensive

I respect the product at Target Corporation, but the stock at $154.38 is a different story. Thin 4.9% operating margin, declining revenue and net income since FY 2023, and beta of 1.01 leave little earnings cushion or defensive insulation.. FCF yield is 4.11% and RQD sits at 68/100 (C+) — why pay up here when you can wait for next quarter's numbers?

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