ROARABLE
FREE $100K
Today Screener Big Ideas Track Record 💰 $100K Arena 🎲 Predictions 🏛️ Insiders 8 Analysts
Stock Ratings / Financials / TFSL / forecast
EBC (68) AX (63) BKU (54) PFS (65) ⌘ Pro Terminal →

TFS Financial Corporation (TFSL) 12-Month Stock Forecast & Price Target Cone

$16.52 +0.55% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $16.50

TFS Financial Corporation (TFSL) carries a Roarable Rating of D (Sell) with 50/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

ROARABLE D • SELL / AVOID Cap $4.61B
📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card
⚡ INSTANT AI QUANT PREVIEW • $0 FREE TIER Click Any Pre-Computed AI Quant Specialist Briefing on TFSL Below — or Connect Your Own ChatGPT / Claude
🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is TFSL stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
▼

As of 2026-11-03, TFS Financial Corporation (NASDAQ: TFSL) is rated D (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 50/100 at a spot price of $16.52 (+0.55% 1D, market cap $4.61B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 7/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 9/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 13/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 11/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 10/20. Across 1097 tracked Financials issuers, TFSL ranks #641 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does TFSL compare to EBC and AX in the Financials sector?
▼

Within the Financials sector (Savings Institutions), TFSL carries a Roarable D (50/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 51.7x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 4.8%. By comparison, EBC (Eastern Bankshares Inc.) holds a C+ grade (68/100 RQD, P/E 58.6x, ROIC 0.7%, cap $5.12B) and AX (Axos Financial Inc.) posts a C grade (63/100 RQD, P/E 12.2x, ROIC 14.8%, cap $5.13B). Among the 5-stock peer group, PFS leads on earnings multiple (10.4x) while AX leads on capital efficiency (14.8% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for TFSL?
▼

Per TFSL's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-09-30, CIK 0001381668), TFS Financial Corporation generated $7.35B in revenue (+2.6% YoY), $91.0M in net income, and $71.0M in free cash flow against $17.50B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Financials with deep daily trading liquidity. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $16.51 (-0.09%)🧬 Disciplined Float (+0.52% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 7/20 (D-) • 1% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →
📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 50/100 (D) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (-1.4% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 49.3% hit rate — wait for RQD ≥ 70 breakout).
Audit Bucket Track Record →
RQD QUANT TACHOMETERSELL / AVOID • D
025507510050
2-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bearish Warning
Cash
SEC
Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw D- · Rk C-
Cash (7)Whales (9)SEC (13)Macro (11)CEO (10)
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE-3.6% Base Target
$20 Bull$16 Base$12 Bear
📬 FREE TFSL RATING-CHANGE & BRIEFING ALERTSManage / Unsubscribe
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for TFSL)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±3.4%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (50/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY TFSL SCORES 50/100 (D) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+13/20 pts (26% of score)

Altman Z-Score 3.80 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) • Piotroski F-Score 4/9

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Macro Regime Fit+11/20 pts (22% of score)

FRED Regime × Technicals: 53% of 52W Range • RSI-14 at 46.7 (NEUTRAL RANGE)

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Cash Engine Quality7/20 pts (-13 pt drag)

Capital intensity & 0% operating margin leave 13 pts on the table

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)
42
Grade D$16.18+1.4% Next Q
Q2 (-2Q)
45
Grade D$16.40+2% Next Q
Q3 (-1Q)
47
Grade D$16.73-1.3% Next Q
Current
50
Grade D$16.52-1.4% Hist 90D α
Trajectory: D (42) → D (50)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a TFSL Turnaround Squeeze

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

While TFSL currently carries a cautious 50/100 (D) rating due to Cash Engine Quality (7/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1

Established market leader in Financials with deep daily trading liquidity.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2

Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($16.78) and Max Pain ($17.35) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $20.46.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3

Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Disciplined Float (+0.52% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $TFSL• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “TFSL Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 29, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
YES 50%NO 50%Trade / Inspect Odds →
INTERACTIVE 12-MONTH POSITION SIMULATOR

Drag to Test Your TFSL Position Size: $10,000

Shares at $16.52: 605.3 sh
$1,000$10,000$25,000$50,000$100,000
12M Bear Case FloorTarget $12.43
$7,524
$-2,476 (-24.8%)
12M Consensus BaseTarget $15.93
$9,643
$-357 (-3.6%)
12M Bull Case BreakoutTarget $20.46
$12,385
+$2,385 (+23.8%)

Wall Street Analyst Breakdown & Historical Accuracy Audit (32 Desks)

Street Historical Accuracy: 64/100
● Strong Buy / Buy: 17● Hold: 9● Sell: 6
Wall Street FirmStance12M Target1Y AccuracyTrack Grade
Morgan StanleyInstitutional Equity DeskHOLD$1774%A
Goldman SachsSector Coverage LeadUNDERPERFORM$1969%B
JP MorganUS Large-Cap ResearchSELL$1458%C
ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring TFSL)

  • ✓Walkthrough of TFSL's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
  • ✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
  • ✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks
RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED
Want Custom AI PineScript / Python Indicators & Priority Rating-Change Alerts?
Join Founding VIP Waitlist (No Card Required) →$100K Arena
TFSL // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +10.72%⚡ TESTING RESISTANCE
2026-11-03O $16.76H $16.76L $16.43C $16.52VOL 877.3K
RES: $16.87SUP: $15.40SMA50: $16.78SMA200: $15.98
$19.89$18.24$16.60$14.96$13.32RES $16.87SUP $15.40$16.522026-05-042026-06-172026-08-042026-09-182026-11-03
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

TFSL Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 TFSL Butterfly Map → + Track TFSL →
Share Count & Dilution Monitor

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle
37.3%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +2.6% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on TFSL today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for TFSL. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for TFSL today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (TFSL)

Financials Rank #641 of 1097 ⚔️ EBC vs TFSL Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Financials Peer Comparison (TFSL vs. EBC, AX, BKU, PFS)

Industry: Savings Institutions (33 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1097 tracked Financials securities in the Roarable RQD universe, TFS Financial Corporation (TFSL) ranks #641 by composite RQD confidence (50/100, grade D) and #284 by equity capitalization ($4.61B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, PFS leads on earnings valuation at 10.4x trailing P/E, while AX leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 14.8% ROIC and — gross margin. EBC currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 68/100 (C+) compared with TFSL at 50/100 (D).

Ticker / Company Roarable Grade RQD Score Trailing P/E Gross Margin ROIC 1D Change Market Cap Head-to-Head
TFSL ACTIVE
TFS Financial Corporation
D 50/100 51.7x — 4.8% +0.55% $4.61B Benchmark Subject
EBC
Eastern Bankshares Inc.
C+ 68/100 58.6x — 0.7% +2.41% $5.12B /ebc-vs-tfsl →
AX
Axos Financial Inc.
C 63/100 12.2x — 14.8% +4.79% $5.13B /ax-vs-tfsl →
BKU
BankUnited Inc.
D+ 54/100 11.5x — 8.8% +2.42% $3.06B /bku-vs-tfsl →
PFS
Provident Financial Services Inc
C 65/100 10.4x — 10.3% +2.66% $2.99B /pfs-vs-tfsl →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-09-30 • CIK 0001381668 ↗

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-09-30), TFS Financial Corporation (TFSL) reported GAAP revenue of $7.35B (+2.6% vs. FY2024 revenue of $7.16B , and +786.1% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $91.0M, operating cash flow of $82.4M, and free cash flow of $71.0M (-17.0% YoY). On the balance sheet, TFSL closed FY2025 with $17.50B in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 4/9).

Fiscal Period Filing Date Revenue Net Income Operating Cash Flow Free Cash Flow Total Assets Total Debt
FY2025 (FY) 2025-09-30 $7.35B $91.0M $82.4M $71.0M $17.50B —
FY2024 (FY) 2024-09-30 $7.16B $79.6M $88.6M $85.5M $17.06B —
FY2023 (FY) 2023-09-30 $829.4M $75.3M $90.7M $90.7M — —

3. TFSL Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is TFSL stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-03, TFS Financial Corporation (NASDAQ: TFSL) is rated D (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 50/100 at a spot price of $16.52 (+0.55% 1D, market cap $4.61B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 7/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 9/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 13/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 11/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 10/20. Across 1097 tracked Financials issuers, TFSL ranks #641 in composite RQD confidence.

How does TFSL compare to EBC and AX in the Financials sector?

Within the Financials sector (Savings Institutions), TFSL carries a Roarable D (50/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 51.7x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 4.8%. By comparison, EBC (Eastern Bankshares Inc.) holds a C+ grade (68/100 RQD, P/E 58.6x, ROIC 0.7%, cap $5.12B) and AX (Axos Financial Inc.) posts a C grade (63/100 RQD, P/E 12.2x, ROIC 14.8%, cap $5.13B). Among the 5-stock peer group, PFS leads on earnings multiple (10.4x) while AX leads on capital efficiency (14.8% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for TFSL?

Per TFSL's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-09-30, CIK 0001381668), TFS Financial Corporation generated $7.35B in revenue (+2.6% YoY), $91.0M in net income, and $71.0M in free cash flow against $17.50B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Financials with deep daily trading liquidity. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is TFSL trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

TFSL last traded at $16.52 (+0.55% on volume of 1,227,296 shares), positioning the stock -1.55% below its 50-day simple moving average ($16.78) and +3.38% above its 200-day simple moving average ($15.98). Across its 52-week range of $13.21 to $19.49, TFSL sits at the 52.7% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 46.7 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±3.4% ($15.96 to $17.08).

Direct Sub-Reports: TFSL RQD Cockpit TFSL 12M Forecast TFSL Earnings & Move TFSL Dividends & DRIP TFSL Insiders & 13F TFSL Whale Options TFSL Profit Sankey TFSL News & Why
ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 50/100 (D) ✓ SEC XBRL & RQD VERIFIED

TFSL — TFS Financial Corporation: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Methodology: RQD v6.2 Deterministic 5-Pillar & SEC XBRL Audit
Updated: 2025-09-30

1. Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

TFS Financial Corporation (TFSL) earns a live Roarable RQD composite score of 50/100, corresponding to a D letter grade (Roarable Sell) at a spot price of $16.52 (+0.55% 1D, market capitalization $4.61B).

  • Fundamental Cash Engine (7/20): Anchored by return on invested capital (ROIC) of 4.8%, gross margin of —, operating margin of —, and free cash flow yield of 1.51%.
  • Whale 13F & Options Flow (9/20) + Insider Conviction (10/20): Tracks institutional 13F accumulation, CBOE options call/put positioning, and SEC Form 4 / Congressional PTR filings.
  • Macro Regime Fit (11/20) + Forensic Balance Sheet (13/20): Incorporates a 1.00x equity beta, Altman Z-Score of N/A, Piotroski F-Score of 4/9, and Debt/Equity of N/A.

2. Business Model, Unit Margins & SEC Financial Trajectory

TFS Financial Corporation (TFSL) is a NASDAQ-listed issuer classified in the Financials sector and the Savings Institutions industry. It carries a market capitalization of $4.7B. — for further business detail.

In its latest audited SEC EDGAR 10-K filing for FY2025 (filed 2025-09-30), TFS Financial Corporation (TFSL) reported $7.35B in annual revenue (up from $7.16B in FY2024, +2.6% YoY) and $91.0M in GAAP net income. Over the multi-year SEC filing window from FY2023 ($829.4M revenue, $75.3M net income) through FY2025, TFSL scaled operating cash flow to $82.4M and free cash flow to $71.0M, backed by $17.50B in total assets against $0 in total debt.

3. Institutional Bull vs. Bear Thesis & Valuation Tradeoff

  • 🐂 Primary Bull Case (D • RQD 50/100): Established market leader in Financials with deep daily trading liquidity. Free cash flow yield of 1.51% and institutional whale pillar of 9/20. With Fundamental Cash Engine at 7/20 and Institutional Whale Flow at 9/20, sustained execution supports upside toward the upper end of the $13.21 – $19.49 52-week range.
  • 🐻 Primary Bear Case & Valuation Risk: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. Investors must weigh 51.7x trailing P/E against — operating margins and a 1.00x macro beta.

4. 2nd-Order Butterfly Ripples & Key Questions to Watch

Sector correlations and second-order bottlenecks cannot be identified from the provided data. The one quantitative ripple visible in the sources is the contrast between the RED RISK WATCH headline on a 19% quarterly profit decline and the reported annual net income increase, which suggests sensitivity to period timing. Investors should monitor whether the quarterly weakness persists in subsequent filings.

  • Key Question #1: Can TFSL sustain or expand its — operating margin and 4.8% ROIC against Savings Institutions peers over the next 4 quarters?
  • Key Question #2: Following FY2025 revenue of $7.35B and free cash flow of $71.0M, how will capital allocation balance growth reinvestment against $0 in total debt?
  • Key Question #3: How sensitive is TFSL's 48.1x forward P/E multiple to Financials capital spending cycles and macro interest-rate shifts (Beta 1.00x)?

TFSL Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for TFS Financial Corporation (TFSL) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to TFSL Debate Forum (3) ↓
🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

TFSL Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $16.52?

🐂 67% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON TFSL 🐻 33% BEARISH CONVICTION
1. Pick Your Side on TFSL:
💡 Tip: Back up your call with a price target or RQD metric to get upvoted to the top.
DE DeltaGamma_99 RQD DEBATE OPENER • Options Flow Specialist 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $19.72 (+20.0%)
📌 Pinned Debate

The forensic balance sheet pillar scores 13 of 20, supported by an Altman Z-Score of 2.5 and a Debt/Equity ratio of 0.5.

Long TFSL at $16.43 targeting $19.72. The forensic balance sheet pillar scores 13 of 20, supported by an Altman Z-Score of 2.5 and a Debt/Equity ratio of 0.5.. Institutional whale score is 9/20 and the risk/reward vs. the $13.21 52-week low is skewed heavily in favor of bulls.

VolSurface_Trader 🐂 BULL

Both sides have a point here — TFSL's 13/20 balance sheet score keeps downside contained, so the real swing factor next earnings call is backlog and FCF conversion.

FA FadeTheHype RQD DEBATE OPENER • Contrarian Tape Reader 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $13.31 (-19.0%)
Spot @ $16.43

A P/E (TTM) of 51.7 sits against an EPS (TTM) of 0.32 and an ROIC of 4.8%, with the Fundamental Cash Engine pillar at 7 of 20.

Here is the bear case nobody on the bull side wants to address on TFSL: A P/E (TTM) of 51.7 sits against an EPS (TTM) of 0.32 and an ROIC of 4.8%, with the Fundamental Cash Engine pillar at 7 of 20.. At 51.7x trailing P/E, even a small guidance miss in Savings Institutions triggers a 12-15% air pocket.

LIVE TAPE SPY $752.10 -1.80% QQQ $681.09 -3.60% DIA $519.34 -1.08% IWM $279.14 -1.68% NVDA $202.06 -1.26% AAPL $338.32 -1.83% MSFT $507.12 -2.83% TSLA $403.82 +1.00% PLTR $178.34 -3.13% SOFI $16.60 -0.95% IBIT $43.35 -5.42% GLD $361.65 -3.59%