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HIFS (53) GCBC (67) SMBC (64) HBCP (53) ⌘ Pro Terminal →

Third Coast Bancshares Inc. (TCBX) Options Positioning, Max Pain & Unusual Sweeps

$40.67 +1.96% NYSE • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $40.74

Third Coast Bancshares Inc. (TCBX) carries a Roarable Rating of D+ (Sell) with 55/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

ROARABLE D+ • SELL / AVOID Cap $664.4M
📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card
⚡ INSTANT AI QUANT PREVIEW • $0 FREE TIER Click Any Pre-Computed AI Quant Specialist Briefing on TCBX Below — or Connect Your Own ChatGPT / Claude
🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is TCBX stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
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As of 2026-11-03, Third Coast Bancshares Inc. (NYSE: TCBX) is rated D+ (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 55/100 at a spot price of $40.67 (+1.96% 1D, market cap $664.4M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 13/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 5/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 13/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 7/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 17/20. Across 1097 tracked Financials issuers, TCBX ranks #529 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does TCBX compare to HIFS and GCBC in the Financials sector?
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Within the Financials sector (Banks), TCBX carries a Roarable D+ (55/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 10.2x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 12.5%. By comparison, HIFS (Hingham Institution for Savings) holds a D+ grade (53/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC —, cap $646.6M) and GCBC (Greene County Bancorp Inc.) posts a C+ grade (67/100 RQD, P/E 19.6x, ROIC 12.1%, cap $608.8M). Among the 5-stock peer group, TCBX leads on earnings multiple (10.2x) while TCBX leads on capital efficiency (12.5% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for TCBX?
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Per TCBX's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001781730), Third Coast Bancshares Inc. generated $2.24B in revenue (+8.1% YoY), $66.3M in net income, and $50.8M in free cash flow against $5.34B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction. Primary risk factors monitored: Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $40.74 (+0.16%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-2.64% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 13/20 (C) • 2.3% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →
📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 55/100 (D+) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (-0.5% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 51.4% hit rate — wait for RQD ≥ 70 breakout).
Audit Bucket Track Record →
RQD QUANT TACHOMETERSELL / AVOID • D+
025507510055
JEV AI Jury Split (Battleground)
Cash
SEC
Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw D+ · Rk D
Cash (13)Whales (5)SEC (13)Macro (7)CEO (17)
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE-1.4% Base Target
$49 Bull$40 Base$31 Bear
📬 FREE TCBX RATING-CHANGE & BRIEFING ALERTSManage / Unsubscribe
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for TCBX)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±5.6%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (55/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY TCBX SCORES 55/100 (D+) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution+17/20 pts (31% of score)

SEC Form 4 / 13F Thermometer: 85% Net Buy • Cannibal Buyback (-2.64% YoY Shares)

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Cash Engine Quality+13/20 pts (24% of score)

SEC XBRL FY 2025 (10-K): 2.3% FCF Margin ($50.8M FCF) & 52% Gross Margin

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Whale & Options Positioning5/20 pts (-15 pt drag)

Put hedging (50% put share) caps near-term gamma upside (-15 pts vs max)

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)
63
Grade C+$41.78-1% Next Q
Q2 (-2Q)
60
Grade C$41.35-2.9% Next Q
Q3 (-1Q)
58
Grade C$40.17+1.2% Next Q
Current
55
Grade D+$40.67-0.5% Hist 90D α
Trajectory: C+ (63) → D+ (55)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the TCBX Bull Thesis Could Fail

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

Even with a 55/100 (D+) score, TCBX faces multiple-compression risk if 10.2x trailing P/E re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1

Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2

Dilution & Margin Drag: Cannibal Buyback (-2.64% YoY Shares) — any gross margin slip below 49.5% triggers an automatic RQD downgrade.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3

Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($42.82) or 200D SMA ($40.89) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($40.12) toward Bear Floor ($31.29).

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $TCBX• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “TCBX Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
YES 55%NO 45%Trade / Inspect Odds →
CALL VS. PUT WHALE SHARE
— (No Active Options Snapshot)
Put/Call Ratio: — (No Active Options Snapshot)
MAX-PAIN EXPIRATION MAGNET
— (No Active Options Snapshot)
No active options chain max-pain snapshot on file
HISTORICAL 20D VOLATILITY SWING
±5.6%
Derived from 20D OHLCV bars (No Active Options Snapshot)

Active Strike Call vs. Put Concentration Ladder (TCBX)

— (No Active Options Snapshot) — No unusual CBOE strike concentration anomalies recorded in the current database snapshot for TCBX.

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Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring TCBX)

  • ✓Walkthrough of TCBX's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
  • ✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
  • ✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks
RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED
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TCBX // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +11.42%📐 WEDGE COMPRESSION COIL
2026-11-03O $40.41H $40.67L $39.89C $40.67VOL 218.4K
RES: $43.19SUP: $39.37SMA50: $42.82SMA200: $40.89
$47.05$44.15$41.26$38.36$35.46RES $43.19SUP $39.37$40.672026-05-042026-06-172026-08-042026-09-182026-11-03
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

TCBX Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 TCBX Butterfly Map → + Track TCBX →
Share Count & Dilution Monitor

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle
-0.8%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +8.1% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on TCBX today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for TCBX. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for TCBX today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (TCBX)

Financials Rank #529 of 1097 ⚔️ HIFS vs TCBX Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Financials Peer Comparison (TCBX vs. HIFS, GCBC, SMBC, HBCP)

Industry: Banks (24 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1097 tracked Financials securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Third Coast Bancshares Inc. (TCBX) ranks #529 by composite RQD confidence (55/100, grade D+) and #639 by equity capitalization ($664.4M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, TCBX leads on earnings valuation at 10.2x trailing P/E, while TCBX leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 12.5% ROIC and — gross margin. GCBC currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 67/100 (C+) compared with TCBX at 55/100 (D+).

Ticker / Company Roarable Grade RQD Score Trailing P/E Gross Margin ROIC 1D Change Market Cap Head-to-Head
TCBX ACTIVE
Third Coast Bancshares Inc.
D+ 55/100 10.2x — 12.5% +1.96% $664.4M Benchmark Subject
HIFS
Hingham Institution for Savings
D+ 53/100 — — — +3.10% $646.6M /hifs-vs-tcbx →
GCBC
Greene County Bancorp Inc.
C+ 67/100 19.6x — 12.1% +2.32% $608.8M /gcbc-vs-tcbx →
SMBC
Southern Missouri Bancorp Inc.
C 64/100 13.5x — 10.3% +2.21% $778.6M /smbc-vs-tcbx →
HBCP
Home Bancorp Inc.
D+ 53/100 10.5x — 10.6% +2.22% $477.0M /hbcp-vs-tcbx →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001781730 ↗

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Third Coast Bancshares Inc. (TCBX) reported GAAP revenue of $2.24B (+8.1% vs. FY2024 revenue of $2.08B , and +1392.4% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $66.3M, operating cash flow of $50.8M, and free cash flow of $50.8M (+52.3% YoY). On the balance sheet, TCBX closed FY2025 with $5.34B in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 4/9).

Fiscal Period Filing Date Revenue Net Income Operating Cash Flow Free Cash Flow Total Assets Total Debt
FY2025 (FY) 2025-12-31 $2.24B $66.3M $50.8M $50.8M $5.34B —
FY2024 (FY) 2024-12-31 $2.08B $47.7M $35.1M $33.4M $4.94B —
FY2023 (FY) 2023-12-31 $150.3M $33.4M $39.1M $39.1M — —

3. TCBX Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is TCBX stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-03, Third Coast Bancshares Inc. (NYSE: TCBX) is rated D+ (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 55/100 at a spot price of $40.67 (+1.96% 1D, market cap $664.4M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 13/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 5/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 13/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 7/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 17/20. Across 1097 tracked Financials issuers, TCBX ranks #529 in composite RQD confidence.

How does TCBX compare to HIFS and GCBC in the Financials sector?

Within the Financials sector (Banks), TCBX carries a Roarable D+ (55/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 10.2x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 12.5%. By comparison, HIFS (Hingham Institution for Savings) holds a D+ grade (53/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC —, cap $646.6M) and GCBC (Greene County Bancorp Inc.) posts a C+ grade (67/100 RQD, P/E 19.6x, ROIC 12.1%, cap $608.8M). Among the 5-stock peer group, TCBX leads on earnings multiple (10.2x) while TCBX leads on capital efficiency (12.5% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for TCBX?

Per TCBX's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001781730), Third Coast Bancshares Inc. generated $2.24B in revenue (+8.1% YoY), $66.3M in net income, and $50.8M in free cash flow against $5.34B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction. Primary risk factors monitored: Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is TCBX trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

TCBX last traded at $40.67 (+1.96% on volume of 122,415 shares), positioning the stock -5.02% below its 50-day simple moving average ($42.82) and -0.54% below its 200-day simple moving average ($40.89). Across its 52-week range of $35.73 to $46.35, TCBX sits at the 46.5% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 37.3 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±5.6% ($38.39 to $42.95).

Direct Sub-Reports: TCBX RQD Cockpit TCBX 12M Forecast TCBX Earnings & Move TCBX Dividends & DRIP TCBX Insiders & 13F TCBX Whale Options TCBX Profit Sankey TCBX News & Why
ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 55/100 (D+) ✓ SEC XBRL & RQD VERIFIED

TCBX — Third Coast Bancshares Inc.: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Methodology: RQD v6.2 Deterministic 5-Pillar & SEC XBRL Audit
Updated: 2025-12-31

1. Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

Third Coast Bancshares Inc. (TCBX) earns a live Roarable RQD composite score of 55/100, corresponding to a D+ letter grade (Roarable Sell) at a spot price of $40.67 (+1.96% 1D, market capitalization $664.4M).

  • Fundamental Cash Engine (13/20): Anchored by return on invested capital (ROIC) of 12.5%, gross margin of —, operating margin of —, and free cash flow yield of 7.55%.
  • Whale 13F & Options Flow (5/20) + Insider Conviction (17/20): Tracks institutional 13F accumulation, CBOE options call/put positioning, and SEC Form 4 / Congressional PTR filings.
  • Macro Regime Fit (7/20) + Forensic Balance Sheet (13/20): Incorporates a 1.00x equity beta, Altman Z-Score of N/A, Piotroski F-Score of 4/9, and Debt/Equity of N/A.

2. Business Model, Unit Margins & SEC Financial Trajectory

Third Coast Bancshares Inc. Is a NYSE-listed issuer in the Financials sector, Banks industry,..7B.

In its latest audited SEC EDGAR 10-K filing for FY2025 (filed 2025-12-31), Third Coast Bancshares Inc. (TCBX) reported $2.24B in annual revenue (up from $2.08B in FY2024, +8.1% YoY) and $66.3M in GAAP net income. Over the multi-year SEC filing window from FY2023 ($150.3M revenue, $33.4M net income) through FY2025, TCBX scaled operating cash flow to $50.8M and free cash flow to $50.8M, backed by $5.34B in total assets against $0 in total debt.

3. Institutional Bull vs. Bear Thesis & Valuation Tradeoff

  • 🐂 Primary Bull Case (D+ • RQD 55/100): Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction. Free cash flow yield of 7.55% and institutional whale pillar of 5/20. With Fundamental Cash Engine at 13/20 and Institutional Whale Flow at 5/20, sustained execution supports upside toward the upper end of the $35.73 – $46.35 52-week range.
  • 🐻 Primary Bear Case & Valuation Risk: Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity. Investors must weigh 10.2x trailing P/E against — operating margins and a 1.00x macro beta.

4. 2nd-Order Butterfly Ripples & Key Questions to Watch

Investors should note that the all-stock Great Plains transaction, if completed, is the only documented second-order event, and its effects on share count and pro forma balance sheet are not quantified in the source data.

  • Key Question #1: Can TCBX sustain or expand its — operating margin and 12.5% ROIC against Banks peers over the next 4 quarters?
  • Key Question #2: Following FY2025 revenue of $2.24B and free cash flow of $50.8M, how will capital allocation balance growth reinvestment against $0 in total debt?
  • Key Question #3: How sensitive is TCBX's 9.5x forward P/E multiple to Financials capital spending cycles and macro interest-rate shifts (Beta 1.00x)?

TCBX Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for Third Coast Bancshares Inc. (TCBX) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to TCBX Debate Forum (3) ↓
🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

TCBX Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $40.67?

🐂 67% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON TCBX 🐻 33% BEARISH CONVICTION
1. Pick Your Side on TCBX:
💡 Tip: Back up your call with a price target or RQD metric to get upvoted to the top.
SI SiliconVal_Bull RQD DEBATE OPENER • Growth & Tech Investor 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $49.86 (+25.0%)
📌 Pinned Debate

Insider conviction scores 17/20 and the stock trades at a P/E of 10.2 with a forward P/E of 9.5, while net income grew from $33.4M to $

Don't sleep on TCBX's setup in Financials. Insider conviction scores 17/20 and the stock trades at a P/E of 10.2 with a forward P/E of 9.5, while net income grew from $33.4M to $66.3M over FY 2023–FY 2025.. Beta of 1.0 means it moves fast when momentum turns, and the 5-pillar RQD gauge (55/100) backs up the fundamental quality.

ArenaChamp_24 🐂 BULL

@SiliconVal_Bull Agree on the RQD 55/100 quality, though with 1.0 beta I'm scaling in with half-size at $39.89 and keeping dry powder in case we test $37.10.

SH ShortSeller_Dan RQD DEBATE OPENER • Forensic Short Bias 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $33.11 (-17.0%)
Spot @ $39.89

The RQD composite is 57 (D+, Trim), institutional flow scores only 6/20, and macro regime fit scores 8/20 with Beta at 1.0.

Fading this rally in TCBX at $39.89. The RQD composite is 57 (D+, Trim), institutional flow scores only 6/20, and macro regime fit scores 8/20 with Beta at 1.0.. With a beta of 1.0 and the stock sitting at $39.89 (52-wk range $35.73–$46.35), the easy multiple expansion is already priced in.

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