Why SWMR Stock dropped -4.97% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash

$9.94 -4.97% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $9.83

Swarmer Inc (SWMR) carries a Roarable Rating of E (Strong Sell) with 26/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

ROARABLE E • RED ALERT Cap $167.4M
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🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is SWMR stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
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As of 2026-11-02, Swarmer Inc (NASDAQ: SWMR) is rated E (Strong Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 26/100 at a spot price of $9.94 (-4.97% 1D, market cap $167.4M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 7/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 3/20, Executive Insider Alignment 8/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 5/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 3/20. Active quantitative signal LIQUIDITY_TAILWIND (BULLISH, conviction undefined/100) notes: undefined.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does SWMR compare to DH and AEYE in the Technology sector?
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Within the Technology sector (Computer Software: Prepackaged Software), SWMR carries a Roarable E (26/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of 41.2%, and ROIC of -35.0%. By comparison, DH (Definitive Healthcare Corp. (Class A)) holds a D grade (48/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -35.0%, cap $162.4M) and AEYE (AudioEye Inc.) posts a D grade (46/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -12.1%, cap $179.1M). Among the 5-stock peer group, PDYN leads on earnings multiple (18.1x) while AEYE leads on capital efficiency (-12.1% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for SWMR?
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Per SWMR's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0002092574), Swarmer Inc generated $309.9K in revenue (-5.9% YoY), -$8.5M in net income, and -$4.9M in free cash flow against $10.3M in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Technology with deep daily trading liquidity.. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

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INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $9.83 (-1.08%)🧬 Dilution Drag (+2.48% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 7/20 (D-) • 0% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →
📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (26/100 · E) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows (-10.5% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 29.0% hit rate).
Audit Bucket Track Record →
RQD QUANT TACHOMETERRED ALERT • E
025507510026
3-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bearish Warning
Cash
SEC
Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw E · Rk E
Cash (7)Whales (3)SEC (8)Macro (5)CEO (3)
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE-14.4% Base Target
$87 Bull$9 Base$7 Bear
📬 FREE SWMR RATING-CHANGE & BRIEFING ALERTSManage / Unsubscribe
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for SWMR)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±12.5%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (26/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY SWMR SCORES 26/100 (E) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+8/20 pts (31% of score)

Altman Z-Score 3.80 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) • Piotroski F-Score 3/9

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Cash Engine Quality+7/20 pts (27% of score)

SEC XBRL FY 2025 (10-K): 0% FCF Margin ($0 FCF) & 12.8% Gross Margin

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution4/20 pts (-16 pt drag)

Dilution Drag (+2.48% YoY Shares) & executive Form 4 sales trim 16 pts from alignment

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)
34
Grade E$12.13-26.4% Next Q
Q2 (-2Q)
31
Grade E$8.93+1.6% Next Q
Q3 (-1Q)
29
Grade E$9.07+9.6% Next Q
Current
26
Grade E$9.94-10.5% Hist 90D α
Trajectory: E (34) → E (26)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a SWMR Turnaround Squeeze

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

While SWMR currently carries a cautious 26/100 (E) rating due to Insider Conviction & Share Dilution (4/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1

Established market leader in Technology with deep daily trading liquidity.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2

Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($20.81) and Max Pain ($10.44) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $87.47.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3

Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Dilution Drag (+2.48% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $SWMR• $4.8M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “SWMR Beats Next Quarterly Revenue & EPS Consensus + Hyperscaler AI CapEx Holds Record Pace”
AUTOMATED RQD QUANT DESK MOVER BRIEFINGFull Market News Desk →

Why SWMR Stock dropped -4.97% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash

Swarmer Inc (SWMR) dropped -4.97% to $9.94, trading at 2% of its 52-week range ($8.26 – $83.3). Stretched risk/reward at current multiples (-35% return on capital) under elevated 10-year interest-rate pressure.

  • ▸Technical Tape: Trading at 2% of its 52-week range ($8.26 – $83.3) with RSI-14 at 36.2 (NEUTRAL RANGE).
  • ▸Volatility Profile: Historical 20-day realized swing band of ±12.5% around $9.94 (no active unusual options sweep snapshot on file).
  • ▸Primary SEC / Cross-Feed Trigger: SWMR Exhibits 6.00x True Net Liquidity Elasticity as Fed-TGA-RRP Prints $5,746B
Live SWMR Headlines & Catalysts
MARKET WIRESimply Wall St • 14h ago
Swarmer (Nasdaq:SWMR) - Stock Analysis

Simply Wall St report covering Swarmer Inc (SWMR) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

MARKET WIREMarketBeat • 17h ago
Top Swarmer (SWMR) Competitors 2026

MarketBeat report covering Swarmer Inc (SWMR) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

MARKET WIRESeekingAlpha • 3d ago
Swarmer, Inc (SWMR) M&A Call Transcript

Swarmer, Inc (SWMR) M&A Call October 29, 2026 8:30 AM EDTCompany ParticipantsAdam CozangiAlexander Fink - President, CEO of U.S.

ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring SWMR)

  • ✓Walkthrough of SWMR's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
  • ✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
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RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED
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SWMR // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -70.42%🛡️ HOLDING TREND SUPPORT
2026-11-02O $9.27H $10.46L $9.27C $9.94VOL 859.4K
RES: $18.53SUP: $7.48SMA50: $20.81SMA200: $35.28
$88.55$66.79$45.03$23.27$1.51RES $18.53SUP $7.48$9.942026-05-042026-06-172026-08-042026-09-172026-11-02
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

SWMR Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)
8.0%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. -5.9% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on SWMR today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for SWMR. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for SWMR today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (SWMR)

Technology Rank #658 of 714 ⚔️ DH vs SWMR Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Technology Peer Comparison (SWMR vs. DH, AEYE, PDYN, ZENA)

Industry: Computer Software: Prepackaged Software (222 Tracked Issuers)

Across 714 tracked Technology securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Swarmer Inc (SWMR) ranks #658 by composite RQD confidence (26/100, grade E) and #494 by equity capitalization ($167.4M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, PDYN leads on earnings valuation at 18.1x trailing P/E, while AEYE leads on capital efficiency and profitability with -12.1% ROIC and 78.3% gross margin. DH currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 48/100 (D) compared with SWMR at 26/100 (E).

Ticker / Company Roarable Grade RQD Score Trailing P/E Gross Margin ROIC 1D Change Market Cap Head-to-Head
SWMR ACTIVE
Swarmer Inc
E 26/100 — 41.2% -35.0% -4.97% $167.4M Benchmark Subject
DH
Definitive Healthcare Corp. (Class A)
D 48/100 — 75.9% -35.0% 0.00% $162.4M /dh-vs-swmr →
AEYE
AudioEye Inc.
D 46/100 — 78.3% -12.1% -7.72% $179.1M /aeye-vs-swmr →
PDYN
Palladyne AI Corp.
E 15/100 18.1x — -35.0% -9.92% $181.6M /pdyn-vs-swmr →
ZENA
ZenaTech Inc.
D 46/100 — — — -5.52% $185.8M /zena-vs-swmr →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2024–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0002092574

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Swarmer Inc (SWMR) reported GAAP revenue of $309.9K (-5.9% vs. FY2024 revenue of $329.4K ) , GAAP net income of -$8.5M, operating cash flow of -$4.6M, and free cash flow of -$4.9M (-361.5% YoY). On the balance sheet, SWMR closed FY2025 with $10.3M in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 3/9).

Fiscal Period Filing Date Revenue Net Income Operating Cash Flow Free Cash Flow Total Assets Total Debt
FY2025 (FY) 2025-12-31 $309.9K -$8.5M -$4.6M -$4.9M $10.3M —
FY2024 (FY) 2024-12-31 $329.4K -$2.1M -$1.0M -$1.1M $2.1M —

3. SWMR Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is SWMR stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-02, Swarmer Inc (NASDAQ: SWMR) is rated E (Strong Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 26/100 at a spot price of $9.94 (-4.97% 1D, market cap $167.4M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 7/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 3/20, Executive Insider Alignment 8/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 5/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 3/20. Active quantitative signal LIQUIDITY_TAILWIND (BULLISH, conviction undefined/100) notes: undefined.

How does SWMR compare to DH and AEYE in the Technology sector?

Within the Technology sector (Computer Software: Prepackaged Software), SWMR carries a Roarable E (26/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of 41.2%, and ROIC of -35.0%. By comparison, DH (Definitive Healthcare Corp. (Class A)) holds a D grade (48/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -35.0%, cap $162.4M) and AEYE (AudioEye Inc.) posts a D grade (46/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -12.1%, cap $179.1M). Among the 5-stock peer group, PDYN leads on earnings multiple (18.1x) while AEYE leads on capital efficiency (-12.1% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for SWMR?

Per SWMR's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0002092574), Swarmer Inc generated $309.9K in revenue (-5.9% YoY), -$8.5M in net income, and -$4.9M in free cash flow against $10.3M in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Technology with deep daily trading liquidity.. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is SWMR trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

SWMR last traded at $9.94 (-4.97% on volume of 681,449 shares), positioning the stock -52.23% below its 50-day simple moving average ($20.81) and -71.83% below its 200-day simple moving average ($35.28). Across its 52-week range of $8.26 to $83.30, SWMR sits at the 2.2% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 36.2 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±12.5% ($8.70 to $11.18).

SWMR Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index

100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FRED

Why is SWMR stock moving today?

Why SWMR Stock dropped -4.97% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash. Stretched risk/reward at current multiples (-35% return on capital) under elevated 10-year interest-rate pressure.

ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 26/100 (E) ✓ STAGE-C NUMBER FIREWALL VERIFIED

SWMR — Swarmer Inc: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Engine: anthropic/claude-haiku-5.5
As of: 2026-11-02T15:42:11Z

Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

Per the Roarable RQD rating, SWMR scores 26 out of 100, grade E, labeled "Roarable Strong Sell — Forensic Risk / Avoid." The five pillars are:

  • Fundamental Cash Engine: 7 / 20. Per the RQD rating, this reflects ROIC of -35% and FCF yield of -2.91%. The pillar shows the business is not currently generating cash returns on invested capital.
  • Whale 13F Flow: 3 / 20. Per the RQD rating, this pillar covers institutional accumulation and options positioning. The score is low; no holder-level detail is available in the source data to explain it.
  • Insider Conviction: 3 / 20. Per the RQD rating, this covers SEC Form 4 and Congressional PTR cluster flow. The score is low. Related news items describe a CEO share sale for tax withholding, which is a routine-type transaction and does not by itself establish a conviction signal.
  • Macro Regime Fit: 5 / 20. Per the RQD rating, beta is 1.0 with a sector sensitivity component. The score indicates limited favorable macro alignment.
  • Forensic Balance Sheet: 8 / 20. Per the RQD rating, Altman Z is 2.5, Piotroski F is 3/9, and Debt/Equity is 0.5. These forensic readings are mixed-to-weak.

For a prospective investor evaluating the stock today, the implications are as follows. The low fundamental and forensic scores mean the reported economics currently do not support the price on cash-flow terms. The 1.0 beta suggests the stock is not especially sensitive to broad market moves per the source, but the RQD verdict is explicitly "Avoid." Upside drivers would have to come from a change in operating economics that the source data does not yet show. Valuation cannot be assessed on earnings multiples because P/E and EV/EBITDA are not available in source data. The most visible tradeoff is a stock that has moved sharply in price while reported profitability remains deeply negative.

Business

Swarmer Inc (SWMR) is a NASDAQ-listed issuer classified under the Technology sector and the Computer Software: Prepackaged Software industry, per the profile. Per the market data, gross margin is 41.2%. Not available in source data: product lines, customer segments, and revenue model details.

Financial Trend

PeriodRevenueOperating IncomeNet IncomeEPSFCFCashDebt
FY 2025 (filed 2025-12-31)$0.3M$-5.1M$-8.5MN/A$-4.9M$9.3MN/A
FY 2024 (filed 2024-12-31)$0.3M$-1.2M$-2.1MN/A$-1.1M$2.1MN/A

Per the market data, operating margin and net margin are each -60%. Per the SEC financials, net loss widened from $-2.1M in FY 2024 to $-8.5M in FY 2025 on roughly flat revenue of $0.3M, and cash rose from $2.1M to $9.3M. Per the Roarable RQD rating, ROIC is -35%, Altman Z is 2.5, Piotroski F is 3/9, and Debt/Equity is 0.5. Debt values are not available in source data.

Recent Catalysts & News Wire Analysis

Per the recent news wire, the items are:

  • A Stocktwits headline describing a large first-day move following the Nasdaq debut, rated as a CATALYST item.
  • An Investing.com item reporting the CEO sold stock for tax withholding, rated as a market-wire item.
  • A Yahoo Finance item announcing the date for third-quarter 2026 results and business updates. The catalyst date itself is not available in source data.
  • Additional market-wire items from Yahoo Finance Australia, Simply Wall St, and MarketBeat cover market action and competitor comparisons.

Per the Butterfly Supply-Chain Graph, the proprietary signal is a LIQUIDITY_TAILWIND signal labeled "MACRO TAILWIND SCORE (96/100)," direction BULLISH, severity 94. The graph reports a 6.00x True Net Liquidity Elasticity with r = -0.26, and a True Net Liquidity Index of $5,745.73B with a -0.64% 4-week rate of change and High-Yield OAS of +2 bps. This is a macro liquidity-factor reading and is not a fundamental business signal. Risk watch items per the news wire include the sharp price move relative to the 52-week range and the pending third-quarter results.

Butterfly Effect: 2nd-Order Supply-Chain & Sector Ripples

Per the Butterfly Supply-Chain Graph, supply chain is NONE and butterfly links are empty. Upstream and downstream dependencies are not available in source data. Sector correlations beyond the liquidity-factor sensitivity are not available in source data. Investors should watch for the liquidity-regime sensitivity in the graph, since a 6.00x beta to Net Liquidity means the stock's price could respond materially to changes in Fed balance-sheet, Treasury General Account, and reverse-repo flows, per the graph's own methodology. Second-order bottlenecks cannot be identified from the source data.

Open Questions

  • What are the reported drivers of the net loss increase from $-2.1M to $-8.5M, and are they recurring?
  • What is the debt balance, since FY debt is listed as N/A in the SEC financials?
  • What revenue sources make up the $0.3M reported revenue, and what is the growth trajectory?
  • What is the cash runway given $9.3M cash against a $-4.9M FCF outflow?
  • What is the basis for the 52-week range of $8.26 to $83.3 relative to the current $10.46 price?

SWMR Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for Swarmer Inc (SWMR) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to SWMR Debate Forum (3) ↓
🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

SWMR Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $9.94?

🐂 33% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON SWMR 🐻 67% BEARISH CONVICTION
1. Pick Your Side on SWMR:
💡 Tip: Back up your call with a price target or RQD metric to get upvoted to the top.
RO RoarDesk_Moderator Roarable Research Desk 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $9.20 (-12.0%)
📌 Pinned Debate

🔥 Official Bull vs. Bear Debate: Is SWMR (E • RQD 26/100) a Buy at $10.46?

Welcome to the SWMR (Swarmer Inc) Roar Pit. Current RQD Composite is 26/100 (Roarable Strong Sell — Forensic Risk / Avoid) in Computer Software: Prepackaged Software. Bulls point to operating leverage and sector positioning, while bears focus on macro rate sensitivity and margin execution. Pick your side (🐂 Bull or 🐻 Bear) and drop your price target below.

MU MultipleCompression Forensic Accounting Watch 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $8.58 (-18.0%)
Spot @ $10.46

Pump the brakes on SWMR — check the valuation vs. margin headwinds

Everyone in here is repeating the bull case on SWMR, but look at what you are paying: current EV/EBITDA multiples with 41.2% gross margins. Unless Swarmer Inc expands free cash flow yield next quarter, I would rather wait for a pullback closer to the 200-day moving average before touching this.

QU QuantViper Verified K Arena Trader 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $12.66 (+21.0%)
Spot @ $10.46

SWMR cash flow & RQD setup is being underpriced by the Street here

Looking at the 5-pillar RQD breakdown on SWMR, the market is fixating on short-term headline noise in Computer Software: Prepackaged Software and ignoring the balance sheet and cash flow trajectory. At $10.46 (52-wk range $8.26 - $83.30), any beat on forward guidance forces shorts and underweight funds to chase.

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