How profitable is Sterling Infrastructure Inc. (STRL)?

In FY 2025 (10-K), STRL converted $2.5B of revenue into a 23% gross margin, 16.3% operating margin, and $362.7M in free cash flow (14.6% FCF margin).

Stock Ratings / Industrials / STRL / financials

KTOS (37) FLR (28) J (70) LOAR (56) ⌘ Pro Terminal →

Sterling Infrastructure Inc. (STRL) Revenue-to-Profit Sankey Flow & SEC XBRL Financials

$335.45 -3.02% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $332.99

Sterling Infrastructure Inc. (STRL) carries a Roarable Rating of C- (Hold) with 60/100 RQD Confidence. The composite score sits in the neutral Hold band (59–69), meaning current holders don’t need to panic-sell while prospective buyers can wait for a move into the 70+ Buy zone.

ROARABLE C- • HOLD / WATCH Cap $10.55B

📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card

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🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is STRL stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

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As of 2026-11-03, Sterling Infrastructure Inc. (NASDAQ: STRL) is rated C- (Hold / HOLD) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 60/100 at a spot price of $335.45 (-3.02% 1D, market cap $10.55B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 16/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 5/20, Executive Insider Alignment 15/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 9/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 15/20. Across 485 tracked Industrials issuers, STRL ranks #113 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does STRL compare to KTOS and FLR in the Industrials sector?

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Within the Industrials sector (Military/Government/Technical), STRL carries a Roarable C- (60/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 39.4x, gross margin of 23.0%, and ROIC of 32.3%. By comparison, KTOS (Kratos Defense & Security Solutions Inc.) holds a D- grade (37/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC 1.4%, cap $7.71B) and FLR (Fluor Corporation) posts a E grade (28/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -13.7%, cap $6.27B). Among the 5-stock peer group, STRL leads on earnings multiple (39.4x) while STRL leads on capital efficiency (32.3% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for STRL?

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Per STRL's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0000874238), Sterling Infrastructure Inc. generated $2.49B in revenue (+17.7% YoY), $290.2M in net income, and $362.7M in free cash flow against $2.63B in total assets and $275.9M in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Strong cash generator (23% profit margin)—profits are backed by real money, not accounting tricks.. Primary risk factors monitored: Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).

INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:

🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray

EXT / AFTER-HRS: $333.00 (-0.73%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-2.08% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 16/20 (B+) • 14.6% FCF Margin

Verify 90D Bucket Audit →

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 60/100 (C-) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (+0.4% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 53.5% hit rate — wait for RQD ≥ 70 breakout).

Audit Bucket Track Record →

RQD QUANT TACHOMETERHOLD / WATCH • C-

2-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bullish

Cash

SEC

Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw C- · Rk C-

Each axis scored 0–20

12M PRICE TARGET CONE+0.9% Base Target

WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for STRL)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±12.5%

Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (60/100 Composite)

🔍 WHY STRL SCORES 60/100 (C-) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag

▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Cash Engine Quality+16/20 pts (27% of score)

SEC XBRL FY 2025 (10-K): 14.6% FCF Margin ($362.7M FCF) & 23% Gross Margin

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+15/20 pts (25% of score)

Altman Z-Score 6.41 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) • Piotroski F-Score 8/9

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Whale & Options Positioning5/20 pts (-15 pt drag)

Put hedging (50% put share) caps near-term gamma upside (-15 pts vs max)

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current

Q1 (-3Q)

Grade B-$453.07-8.9% Next Q

Q2 (-2Q)

Grade C+$412.96-5.8% Next Q

Q3 (-1Q)

Grade C+$388.87-13.7% Next Q

Current

Grade C-$335.45+0.4% Hist 90D α

Trajectory: B- (68) → C- (60)Full Audit →

⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the STRL Bull Thesis Could Fail

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

Even with a 60/100 (C-) score, STRL faces multiple-compression risk if 39.4x trailing P/E re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1

Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2

Priced at 39x earnings—high expectations leave less room for a lukewarm quarter.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3

Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($464.41) or 200D SMA ($552.21) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($338.47) toward Bear Floor ($264.01).

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $STRL• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite

Contract: “STRL Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”

YES 60%NO 40%Trade / Inspect Odds →

VISUAL REVENUE-TO-PROFIT SANKEY WATERFALL • FY 2025 (10-K)

How STRL Turns Every Dollar of Sales Into Real Bottom-Line Profit

Free Cash Flow:$362.7M (14.6% FCF Margin)

Multi-Year SEC EDGAR XBRL Revenue, Net Profit & Free Cash Flow Trajectory

■ Revenue■ Net Profit■ Free Cash Flow

FY23

Rev $1.97B

FY24

Rev $2.12B

FY25

Rev $2.49B

Fiscal Year	Revenue	Gross Margin	Op Margin	Net Profit	Free Cash Flow	ROIC %
FY 2025	$2.49B	23%	16.3%	$290.2M	$362.7M	32.3%
FY 2024	$2.12B	20.1%	12.5%	$257.5M	$416.1M	48.2%
FY 2023	$1.97B	23%	10.4%	$138.7M	$389.8M	4.3%

ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring STRL)

✓Walkthrough of STRL's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks

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STRL // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -36.65%▼ DESCENDING CHANNEL

2026-11-03O $373.7H $373.7L $335.5C $335.5VOL 969.2K

RES: $556.2SUP: $191.1SMA50: $464.4SMA200: $552.2

PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

STRL Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 STRL Butterfly Map → + Track STRL →

Share Count & Dilution Monitor

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle

30.0%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +17.7% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on STRL today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for STRL. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video

🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for STRL today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →

DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (STRL)

Industrials Rank #113 of 485 ⚔️ KTOS vs STRL Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Industrials Peer Comparison (STRL vs. KTOS, FLR, J, LOAR)

Industry: Military/Government/Technical (43 Tracked Issuers)

Across 485 tracked Industrials securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Sterling Infrastructure Inc. (STRL) ranks #113 by composite RQD confidence (60/100, grade C-) and #95 by equity capitalization ($10.55B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, STRL leads on earnings valuation at 39.4x trailing P/E, while STRL leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 32.3% ROIC and 23.0% gross margin. J currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 70/100 (B-) compared with STRL at 60/100 (C-).

Ticker / Company	Roarable Grade	RQD Score	Trailing P/E	Gross Margin	ROIC	1D Change	Market Cap	Head-to-Head
STRL ACTIVE Sterling Infrastructure Inc.	C-	60/100	39.4x	23.0%	32.3%	-3.02%	$10.55B	Benchmark Subject
KTOS Kratos Defense & Security Solutions Inc.	D-	37/100	—	22.9%	1.4%	-2.09%	$7.71B	/ktos-vs-strl →
FLR Fluor Corporation	E	28/100	—	-0.8%	-13.7%	-1.02%	$6.27B	/flr-vs-strl →
J Jacobs Solutions Inc.	B-	70/100	61.8x	24.8%	15.6%	+3.64%	$18.10B	/j-vs-strl →
LOAR Loar Holdings Inc.	D+	56/100	—	52.7%	4.7%	+9.34%	$5.82B	/loar-vs-strl →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0000874238

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Sterling Infrastructure Inc. (STRL) reported GAAP revenue of $2.49B (+17.7% vs. FY2024 revenue of $2.12B , and +26.3% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $290.2M, operating cash flow of $440.0M, and free cash flow of $362.7M (-12.8% YoY). On the balance sheet, STRL closed FY2025 with $2.63B in total assets against $275.9M in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 6.41, Piotroski F-Score: 8/9).

Fiscal Period	Filing Date	Revenue	Net Income	Operating Cash Flow	Free Cash Flow	Total Assets	Total Debt
FY2025 (FY)	2025-12-31	$2.49B	$290.2M	$440.0M	$362.7M	$2.63B	$275.9M
FY2024 (FY)	2024-12-31	$2.12B	$257.5M	$497.1M	$416.1M	$2.02B	$289.9M
FY2023 (FY)	2023-12-31	$1.97B	$138.7M	$478.6M	$389.8M	$6.29B	$1.47B

3. STRL Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is STRL stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

How does STRL compare to KTOS and FLR in the Industrials sector?

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for STRL?

Where is STRL trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

STRL last traded at $335.45 (-3.02% on volume of 1,048,412 shares), positioning the stock -27.77% below its 50-day simple moving average ($464.41) and -39.25% below its 200-day simple moving average ($552.21). Across its 52-week range of $281.58 to $1,005.68, STRL sits at the 7.4% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 32.6 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±12.5% ($293.52 to $377.38).

Direct Sub-Reports: STRL RQD Cockpit STRL 12M Forecast STRL Earnings & Move STRL Dividends & DRIP STRL Insiders & 13F STRL Whale Options STRL Profit Sankey STRL News & Why

ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 60/100 (C-) ✓ SEC XBRL & RQD VERIFIED

STRL — Sterling Infrastructure Inc.: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Methodology: RQD v6.2 Deterministic 5-Pillar & SEC XBRL Audit

Updated: 2025-12-31

1. Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

Sterling Infrastructure Inc. (STRL) earns a live Roarable RQD composite score of 60/100, corresponding to a C- letter grade (Roarable Hold) at a spot price of $335.45 (-3.02% 1D, market capitalization $10.55B).

Fundamental Cash Engine (16/20): Anchored by return on invested capital (ROIC) of 32.3%, gross margin of 23.0%, operating margin of 16.3%, and free cash flow yield of 3.17%.
Whale 13F & Options Flow (5/20) + Insider Conviction (15/20): Tracks institutional 13F accumulation, CBOE options call/put positioning, and SEC Form 4 / Congressional PTR filings.
Macro Regime Fit (9/20) + Forensic Balance Sheet (15/20): Incorporates a 1.03x equity beta, Altman Z-Score of 6.41, Piotroski F-Score of 8/9, and Debt/Equity of 0.25x.

2. Business Model, Unit Margins & SEC Financial Trajectory

Sterling Infrastructure Inc. Is a NASDAQ-listed issuer in the Industrials sector, operating in the Military/Government/Technical industry..4B.

In its latest audited SEC EDGAR 10-K filing for FY2025 (filed 2025-12-31), Sterling Infrastructure Inc. (STRL) reported $2.49B in annual revenue (up from $2.12B in FY2024, +17.7% YoY) and $290.2M in GAAP net income. Over the multi-year SEC filing window from FY2023 ($1.97B revenue, $138.7M net income) through FY2025, STRL scaled operating cash flow to $440.0M and free cash flow to $362.7M, backed by $2.63B in total assets against $275.9M in total debt.

3. Institutional Bull vs. Bear Thesis & Valuation Tradeoff

🐂 Primary Bull Case (C- • RQD 60/100): Strong cash generator (23% profit margin)—profits are backed by real money, not accounting tricks. Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction. With Fundamental Cash Engine at 16/20 and Institutional Whale Flow at 5/20, sustained execution supports upside toward the upper end of the $281.58 – $1,005.68 52-week range.
🐻 Primary Bear Case & Valuation Risk: Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity. Investors must weigh 39.4x trailing P/E and 24.0x EV/EBITDA against 16.3% operating margins and a 1.03x macro beta.

4. 2nd-Order Butterfly Ripples & Key Questions to Watch

Operating in Military/Government/Technical (Industrials), STRL carries a macro regime beta of 1.03 and gross margin of 23.0%.

Key Question #1: Can STRL sustain or expand its 16.3% operating margin and 32.3% ROIC against Military/Government/Technical peers over the next 4 quarters?
Key Question #2: Following FY2025 revenue of $2.49B and free cash flow of $362.7M, how will capital allocation balance growth reinvestment against $275.9M in total debt?
Key Question #3: How sensitive is STRL's 33.1x forward P/E multiple to Industrials capital spending cycles and macro interest-rate shifts (Beta 1.03x)?

STRL Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for Sterling Infrastructure Inc. (STRL) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to STRL Debate Forum (3) ↓

🟡 MARKET WIRE Yahoo Finance • 21h ago

Are Construction Stocks Lagging Sterling Infrastructure, Inc. (STRL) This Year?

Yahoo Finance report covering Sterling Infrastructure Inc. (STRL) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

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🟡 MARKET WIRE Trefis • 1d ago

10 Red Days In A Row: Sterling Infrastructure Stock Is Down 27%

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🟡 MARKET WIRE Yahoo Finance • 1d ago

Sterling Infrastructure (STRL) Stock Declines While Market Improves: Some Information for Investors

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🟡 MARKET WIRE Trefis • 1d ago

Can Sterling Infrastructure Stock Double From Here?

Trefis report covering Sterling Infrastructure Inc. (STRL) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

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🟡 MARKET WIRE Yahoo Finance • 1d ago

Sterling Infrastructure, Inc. (STRL) Is a Trending Stock: Facts to Know Before Betting on It

Yahoo Finance report covering Sterling Infrastructure Inc. (STRL) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

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🟢 CATALYST Yahoo Finance • 1d ago

Sterling Infrastructure (STRL) Stock Dips While Market Gains: Key Facts

Yahoo Finance report covering Sterling Infrastructure Inc. (STRL) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

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🟡 MARKET WIRE Yahoo Finance • 1d ago

Sterling Infrastructure (STRL) May Find a Bottom Soon, Here's Why You Should Buy the Stock Now

Yahoo Finance report covering Sterling Infrastructure Inc. (STRL) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

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🟡 MARKET WIRE Yahoo Finance • 1d ago

If You Invested $1000 in Sterling Infrastructure a Decade Ago, This is How Much It'd Be Worth Now

Yahoo Finance report covering Sterling Infrastructure Inc. (STRL) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

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🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

STRL Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $335.45?

🐂 67% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON STRL 🐻 33% BEARISH CONVICTION

MI MidwestValue RQD DEBATE OPENER • Fundamental Long-Only 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $404.71 (+17.0%)

📌 Pinned Debate

High ROIC of 32.3% and an Altman Z of 6.41 with Piotroski F of 8 of 9 show strong cash generation and balance-sheet quality.

The street is overcomplicating Sterling Infrastructure Inc. (STRL). High ROIC of 32.3% and an Altman Z of 6.41 with Piotroski F of 8 of 9 show strong cash generation and balance-sheet quality.. With an RQD score of 60/100 (C-) and Forensic Balance Sheet at 15/20, any positive earnings surprise or guidance raise forces underweight funds to chase above $373.58.

RetailWhale_TX 🐂 BULL

Both sides have a point here — STRL's 15/20 balance sheet score keeps downside contained, so the real swing factor next earnings call is backlog and FCF conversion.

RI RiskArb_Desk RQD DEBATE OPENER • Hedged Event Driven 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $294.02 (-15.0%)

Spot @ $345.91

A P/E (TTM) of 39.4 and EV/EBITDA of 24 against an FCF yield of 3.17% leave limited valuation cushion, with institutional flow scoring

A P/E (TTM) of 39.4 and EV/EBITDA of 24 against an FCF yield of 3.17% leave limited valuation cushion, with institutional flow scoring just 6 of 20.. Look at the math on STRL: paying 39.4x trailing P/E for 32.3% ROIC and 16.3% operating margins leaves zero margin of safety if Military/Government/Technical demand softens. I'd wait for a retest of $304.40 before getting long.