Sphere Entertainment Co. (SPHR) Next Earnings Date & Expected ±9.8% Move

$104.99 -3.80% NYSE • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $104.07

Sphere Entertainment Co. (SPHR) carries a Roarable Rating of D- (Sell) with 41/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

ROARABLE D- • RED ALERT Cap $3.92B
📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card
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🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is SPHR stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
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As of 2026-11-03, Sphere Entertainment Co. (NYSE: SPHR) is rated D- (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 41/100 at a spot price of $104.99 (-3.80% 1D, market cap $3.92B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 9/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 5/20, Executive Insider Alignment 12/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 6/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 9/20. Across 1011 tracked Consumer Discretionary issuers, SPHR ranks #712 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does SPHR compare to MSGE and ENHA in the Consumer Discretionary sector?
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Within the Consumer Discretionary sector (Services-Misc. Amusement & Recreation), SPHR carries a Roarable D- (41/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 121.6x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of -7.3%. By comparison, MSGE (Madison Square Garden Entertainment Corp. (Class A)) holds a D+ grade (54/100 RQD, P/E 102.7x, ROIC 22.2%, cap $3.81B) and ENHA (Enhanced Group Inc. (Class A)) posts a E grade (31/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -8.3%, cap $3.73B). Among the 5-stock peer group, MSGE leads on earnings multiple (102.7x) while MSGE leads on capital efficiency (22.2% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for SPHR?
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Per SPHR's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001795250), Sphere Entertainment Co. generated $1.22B in revenue (+19.0% YoY), $33.4M in net income, and $188.5M in free cash flow against $4.21B in total assets and $767.4M in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Consumer Discretionary with deep daily trading liquidity.. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
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INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $104.08 (-0.87%)🧬 Disciplined Float (-0.40% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 9/20 (D) • 15.5% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →
📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (41/100 · D-) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows (-7.2% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 29.0% hit rate).
Audit Bucket Track Record →
RQD QUANT TACHOMETERRED ALERT • D-
025507510041
2-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bearish Warning
Cash
SEC
Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw D- · Rk D
Cash (9)Whales (5)SEC (12)Macro (6)CEO (9)
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE-7.6% Base Target
$191 Bull$97 Base$76 Bear
📬 FREE SPHR RATING-CHANGE & BRIEFING ALERTSManage / Unsubscribe
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for SPHR)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±9.8%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (41/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY SPHR SCORES 41/100 (D-) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+12/20 pts (29% of score)

Altman Z-Score 1.30 (DISTRESS RISK (<1.8)) • Piotroski F-Score 9/9

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Cash Engine Quality+9/20 pts (22% of score)

SEC XBRL FY 2025 (10-K): 15.5% FCF Margin ($188.5M FCF) & 52% Gross Margin

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Whale & Options Positioning5/20 pts (-15 pt drag)

Put hedging (50% put share) caps near-term gamma upside (-15 pts vs max)

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)
33
Grade E$103.98+9.7% Next Q
Q2 (-2Q)
36
Grade E$114.07-2% Next Q
Q3 (-1Q)
38
Grade E$111.83-6.1% Next Q
Current
41
Grade D-$104.99-7.2% Hist 90D α
Trajectory: E (33) → D- (41)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a SPHR Turnaround Squeeze

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

While SPHR currently carries a cautious 41/100 (D-) rating due to Whale & Options Positioning (5/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1

Established market leader in Consumer Discretionary with deep daily trading liquidity.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2

Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($126.19) and Max Pain ($110.24) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $190.71.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3

Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Disciplined Float (-0.40% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $SPHR• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “SPHR Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
NEXT EST. WINDOW: Dec 30, 2026 (~57 DAYS)

Historical OHLCV Volatility ±9.8% Swing Band

±$10.29 Expected Swing
$94.70 (-9.8%)Spot $104.99$115.28 (+9.8%)
MODEL EARNINGS SETUP GAUGE

SPHR Quantitative Pre-Earnings Setup: 41/100

Trailing EPS: $0.93 • YoY Revenue Growth: 19%

Model Bullish Setup (41/100)Model Risk Weight (59/100)
Derived deterministically from RQD cash-flow quality, SEC accrual safety, and institutional flow (not a community poll).
LOG YOUR PERSONAL PRE-EARNINGS STANCE (SAVED LOCALLY IN BROWSER):

Recent SEC Reported Revenue, Net Profit & Diluted EPS Cadence

PeriodFiledRevenueNet ProfitFree Cash FlowGross Margin
FY 20252025-12-31$1.22B$33.4M$188.5M52%
FY 20242024-06-30$1.02B-$200.6M-$65.7M52%
FY 20232023-06-30$571.2M$505.7M$127.9M52%
ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring SPHR)

  • ✓Walkthrough of SPHR's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
  • ✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
  • ✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks
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SPHR // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -23.06%📐 HORIZONTAL RANGE
2026-11-03O $113.1H $113.1L $105.0C $105.0VOL 777.6K
RES: $194.8SUP: $89.35SMA50: $126.2SMA200: $130.8
$188.5$160.1$131.8$103.5$75.16RES $194.8SUP $89.35$105.02026-05-042026-06-182026-08-052026-09-212026-11-03
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

SPHR Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)
48.0%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +19.0% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on SPHR today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for SPHR. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for SPHR today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (SPHR)

Consumer Discretionary Rank #712 of 1011 ⚔️ MSGE vs SPHR Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Consumer Discretionary Peer Comparison (SPHR vs. MSGE, ENHA, MANU, BATRA)

Industry: Services-Misc. Amusement & Recreation (51 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1011 tracked Consumer Discretionary securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Sphere Entertainment Co. (SPHR) ranks #712 by composite RQD confidence (41/100, grade D-) and #318 by equity capitalization ($3.92B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, MSGE leads on earnings valuation at 102.7x trailing P/E, while MSGE leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 22.2% ROIC and — gross margin. MANU currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 58/100 (D+) compared with SPHR at 41/100 (D-).

Ticker / Company Roarable Grade RQD Score Trailing P/E Gross Margin ROIC 1D Change Market Cap Head-to-Head
SPHR ACTIVE
Sphere Entertainment Co.
D- 41/100 121.6x — -7.3% -3.80% $3.92B Benchmark Subject
MSGE
Madison Square Garden Entertainment Corp. (Class A)
D+ 54/100 102.7x — 22.2% -1.18% $3.81B /msge-vs-sphr →
ENHA
Enhanced Group Inc. (Class A)
E 31/100 — — -8.3% -22.37% $3.73B /enha-vs-sphr →
MANU
Manchester United Ltd. (Class A)
D+ 58/100 — — — +1.66% $3.63B /manu-vs-sphr →
BATRA
Atlanta Braves Holdings Inc. (Series A)
D- 40/100 — — -1.1% +1.04% $3.51B /batra-vs-sphr →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001795250

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Sphere Entertainment Co. (SPHR) reported GAAP revenue of $1.22B (+19.0% vs. FY2024 revenue of $1.02B , and +113.3% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $33.4M, operating cash flow of $243.3M, and free cash flow of $188.5M (+386.8% YoY). On the balance sheet, SPHR closed FY2025 with $4.21B in total assets against $767.4M in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 1.30, Piotroski F-Score: 9/9).

Fiscal Period Filing Date Revenue Net Income Operating Cash Flow Free Cash Flow Total Assets Total Debt
FY2025 (FY) 2025-12-31 $1.22B $33.4M $243.3M $188.5M $4.21B $767.4M
FY2024 (FY) 2024-06-30 $1.02B -$200.6M -$19.7M -$65.7M $4.52B $524.0M
FY2023 (FY) 2023-06-30 $571.2M $505.7M $153.6M $127.9M $2.23B $522.8M

3. SPHR Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is SPHR stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-03, Sphere Entertainment Co. (NYSE: SPHR) is rated D- (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 41/100 at a spot price of $104.99 (-3.80% 1D, market cap $3.92B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 9/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 5/20, Executive Insider Alignment 12/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 6/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 9/20. Across 1011 tracked Consumer Discretionary issuers, SPHR ranks #712 in composite RQD confidence.

How does SPHR compare to MSGE and ENHA in the Consumer Discretionary sector?

Within the Consumer Discretionary sector (Services-Misc. Amusement & Recreation), SPHR carries a Roarable D- (41/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 121.6x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of -7.3%. By comparison, MSGE (Madison Square Garden Entertainment Corp. (Class A)) holds a D+ grade (54/100 RQD, P/E 102.7x, ROIC 22.2%, cap $3.81B) and ENHA (Enhanced Group Inc. (Class A)) posts a E grade (31/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -8.3%, cap $3.73B). Among the 5-stock peer group, MSGE leads on earnings multiple (102.7x) while MSGE leads on capital efficiency (22.2% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for SPHR?

Per SPHR's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001795250), Sphere Entertainment Co. generated $1.22B in revenue (+19.0% YoY), $33.4M in net income, and $188.5M in free cash flow against $4.21B in total assets and $767.4M in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Consumer Discretionary with deep daily trading liquidity.. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is SPHR trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

SPHR last traded at $104.99 (-3.80% on volume of 1,059,247 shares), positioning the stock -16.80% below its 50-day simple moving average ($126.19) and -19.71% below its 200-day simple moving average ($130.76). Across its 52-week range of $64.00 to $181.63, SPHR sits at the 34.8% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 42.0 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±9.8% ($94.70 to $115.28).

ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 41/100 (D-) ✓ STAGE-C NUMBER FIREWALL VERIFIED

SPHR — Sphere Entertainment Co.: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Engine: anthropic/claude-haiku-5.5
As of: 2026-11-02T15:22:22Z

1. Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

SPHR scores 43 out of 100 with a letter grade of D-, labeled "Roarable Sell — Vulnerable Balance Sheet & Flow." The five pillars are:

  • Fundamental Cash Engine: 9 / 20. this pillar reflects ROIC of -7.3% and an FCF yield of 4.64%. Negative ROIC signals that, on this measure, invested capital is not currently generating returns above zero; the positive FCF yield indicates cash generation relative to market value, but the two readings together point to a weak operating return profile.
  • Whale 13F Flow: 7 / 20. this pillar covers institutional accumulation and options positioning. The score is low-to-mid range, indicating limited supportive institutional flow in the source data. Note that the holders section is empty in the source data, so the underlying positioning detail cannot be verified here.
  • Insider Conviction: 9 / 20. this pillar reflects SEC Form 4 and Congressional PTR cluster flow. The score suggests insider signals are not a meaningful source of conviction in the source data.
  • Macro Regime Fit: 6 / 20. this reflects beta of 0.99 and sector sensitivity. A beta near 1.0 means the stock has tended to move roughly in line with the broader market; the low pillar score indicates weak alignment with the current regime as assessed by the rating model.
  • Forensic Balance Sheet: 12 / 20. this pillar cites Altman Z 1.3, Piotroski F 9/9, and Debt/Equity 0.34.

For a prospective investor evaluating the stock today, the rating points to a valuation tradeoff: per the market data, P/E (TTM) is 121.6 and forward P/E is 102.1 against an EPS (TTM) of 0.93, meaning price embeds substantial expectations relative to reported earnings. The upside case rests on improving operating margins and return on capital, which the source data currently shows as negative. The downside case centers on the weak cash engine and flow pillars. This section is analytical and educational, not personalized advice.

2. Business Model, Unit Margins & SEC Financial Trajectory

Sphere Entertainment Co. (SPHR) is a NYSE-listed issuer in the Consumer Discretionary sector, within the Services-Misc. Amusement & Recreation industry,. Specific products, customers, and revenue-generation mechanics are — The profile identifies the company's sector, industry, exchange, and market capitalization of $4.1B, and nothing further.

Operating income was negative across all three reported periods, while net income was positive in FY 2025 and FY 2023 and negative in FY 2024. Per the market data, operating margin is -18.8% and net margin is 2.7%, with gross margin at 0%. ROIC is -7.3%, the Altman Z-Score is 1.3, and the Piotroski F-Score is 9/9. Debt/Equity is 0.34; the reported debt of $767.4M in FY 2025 against cash of $507.8M is consistent with a leveraged but not extreme balance sheet on the source figures.

3. Institutional Bull vs. Bear Thesis & Valuation Tradeoff

  • 🐂 Primary Bull Case: Piotroski F-Score of 9/9 and FY 2025 net income of $33.4M show financial-strength signals improving despite negative operating income. With Fundamental Cash Engine at 9/20 (ROIC -7.3%, FCF yield 4.64%) and Institutional Whale Flow at 5/20, sustained execution supports upside toward the top of the $64.00 – $181.63 52-week range.
  • 🐻 Primary Bear Case: Negative ROIC of -7.3%, operating margin of -18.8%, and P/E of 121.6 leave the stock priced well above current earnings power. Investors must weigh 121.6x trailing P/E against -18.8% operating margins and a 0.99 macro beta if sector demand softens.

4. 2nd-Order Butterfly Ripples & Key Questions to Watch

— supply_chain is NONE, butterfly_links is empty, and proprietary_signals is empty. Upstream and downstream dependencies, sector correlations beyond the stated sector and industry, and second-order bottlenecks are not identified in the source data.

  • Key Question #1: What specific products and revenue streams generate the $1.22B reported for FY 2025, and how do they map to the operating losses?
  • Key Question #2: What drove the swing from net income of -$200.6M in FY 2024 to $33.4M in FY 2025 while operating income remained negative?
  • Key Question #3: What is the composition of the $767.4M in debt, and what are its maturity and cost terms?

SPHR Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for Sphere Entertainment Co. (SPHR) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to SPHR Debate Forum (3) ↓
🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

SPHR Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $104.99?

🐂 67% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON SPHR 🐻 33% BEARISH CONVICTION
1. Pick Your Side on SPHR:
💡 Tip: Back up your call with a price target or RQD metric to get upvoted to the top.
QU QuantViper Systematic Momentum Desk 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $141.88 (+30.0%)
📌 Pinned Debate

Piotroski F-Score of 9/9 and FY 2025 net income of $33.4M show financial-strength signals improving despite negative operating income.

Here is why I am bullish on SPHR here at $109.14: Piotroski F-Score of 9/9 and FY 2025 net income of $33.4M show financial-strength signals improving despite negative operating income.. Compare SPHR's -18.8% operating margin and -7.3% ROIC against the rest of Services-Misc. Amusement & Recreation. As long as cash conversion holds up, dips toward $103.68 are getting bought.

EarningsSniper 🐂 BULL

Both sides have a point here — SPHR's 12/20 balance sheet score keeps downside contained, so the real swing factor next earnings call is backlog and FCF conversion.

CR CreditSpread_Watch Balance Sheet Analyst 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $85.13 (-22.0%)
Spot @ $109.14

Negative ROIC of -7.3%, operating margin of -18.8%, and P/E of 121.6 leave the stock priced well above current earnings power.

Careful chasing SPHR at $109.14. Negative ROIC of -7.3%, operating margin of -18.8%, and P/E of 121.6 leave the stock priced well above current earnings power.. Gross margin is 0.0%, but operating margin is -18.8%, which shows SG&A and reinvestment are eating into bottom-line EPS. Target $85.13 on multiple compression.

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