Smith Micro Software Inc. (SMSI) Insider, 13F Hedge Fund & Politician Buy/Sell Thermometer

$2.27 -3.40% NASDAQ β€’ Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $2.25

Smith Micro Software Inc. (SMSI) carries a Roarable Rating of E (Strong Sell) with 28/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

ROARABLE E β€’ RED ALERT Cap $12.7M
πŸ“€ Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card
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πŸ€– Mara Quenwick β€’ AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is SMSI stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
β–Ό

As of 2026-11-03, Smith Micro Software Inc. (NASDAQ: SMSI) is rated E (Strong Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 28/100 at a spot price of $2.27 (-3.40% 1D, market cap $12.7M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 7/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 3/20, Executive Insider Alignment 8/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 7/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 3/20. Across 714 tracked Technology issuers, SMSI ranks #630 in composite RQD confidence.

βœ“ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
πŸ€– Ellis Vennor β€’ AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does SMSI compare to YAAS and UPLD in the Technology sector?
β–Ό

Within the Technology sector (Computer Software: Prepackaged Software), SMSI carries a Roarable E (28/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of 74.1%, and ROIC of -35.0%. By comparison, YAAS (Youxin Technology Ltd (Class A)) holds a D- grade (36/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC β€”, cap $11.9M) and UPLD (Upland Software Inc.) posts a D- grade (40/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC 2.4%, cap $11.8M). Among the 5-stock peer group, SMSI leads on earnings multiple (N/A) while UPLD leads on capital efficiency (2.4% ROIC).

βœ“ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
πŸ€– Gideon Ashmere β€’ AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for SMSI?
β–Ό

Per SMSI's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0000948708), Smith Micro Software Inc. generated $17.4M in revenue (-15.5% YoY), -$30.1K in net income, and -$7.3M in free cash flow against $25.0M in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Technology with deep daily trading liquidity.. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

βœ“ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
πŸ€– AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists β€” not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
πŸ›‘οΈ Portfolio Crash X-Ray
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $2.25 (-0.80%)🧬 Dilution Drag (+1.28% YoY Shares)βš™οΈ Cash Engine: 7/20 (D-) β€’ 0% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit β†’
πŸ“Š Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (28/100 Β· E) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows (-10.0% avg 90D alpha vs SPY β€’ 29.0% hit rate).
Audit Bucket Track Record β†’
RQD QUANT TACHOMETERRED ALERT β€’ E
025507510028
3-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bearish Warning
Cash
SEC
Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) β€” not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw E Β· Rk D-
Cash (7)Whales (3)SEC (8)Macro (7)CEO (3)
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE-13.7% Base Target
$5 Bull$2 Base$2 Bear
πŸ“¬ FREE SMSI RATING-CHANGE & BRIEFING ALERTSManage / Unsubscribe
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: β€” (No Active Options Snapshot on file for SMSI)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: Β±11.7%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (28/100 Composite)
πŸ” WHY SMSI SCORES 28/100 (E) β€” TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
β–² #1 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+8/20 pts (29% of score)

Altman Z-Score 3.80 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) β€’ Piotroski F-Score 2/9

β–² #2 Bullish Driver: Cash Engine Quality+7/20 pts (25% of score)

SEC XBRL FY 2025 (10-K): 0% FCF Margin ($0 FCF) & 74.1% Gross Margin

β–Ό #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution4/20 pts (-16 pt drag)

Dilution Drag (+1.28% YoY Shares) & executive Form 4 sales trim 16 pts from alignment

πŸ“ˆ PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 β†’ Q2 β†’ Q3 β†’ Current
Q1 (-3Q)
36
Grade E$2.40+5.8% Next Q
Q2 (-2Q)
33
Grade E$2.54-9.1% Next Q
Q3 (-1Q)
31
Grade E$2.31-1.7% Next Q
Current
28
Grade E$2.27-10% Hist 90D Ξ±
Trajectory: E (36) β†’ E (28)Full Audit β†’
βš”οΈ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER

βš”οΈ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a SMSI Turnaround Squeeze

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk β†’

While SMSI currently carries a cautious 28/100 (E) rating due to Insider Conviction & Share Dilution (4/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.

πŸš€ Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1

Established market leader in Technology with deep daily trading liquidity.

πŸš€ Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2

Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($2.64) and Max Pain ($2.38) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $4.88.

πŸš€ Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3

Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Dilution Drag (+1.28% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $SMSIβ€’ $4.8M Crowd Pool β€’ Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: β€œSMSI Beats Next Quarterly Revenue & EPS Consensus + Hyperscaler AI CapEx Holds Record Pace”
SEC FORM 4 Γ— 13F HEDGE FUNDS Γ— CONGRESSIONAL STOCK ACT

SMSI Smart-Money Thermometer: NET EXECUTIVE TRIMMING / PROFIT-TAKING

Explore All 13F & Congress Whales β†’
β–² Disclosed Buys: 0 ($0)β–Ό Disclosed Sales: 0 ($0)

Wide-Open SEC Form 4, 13F & Congressional Disclosure Ledger (SMSI)

No recent open-market Form 4 cluster sales or emergency dumps flagged on SMSI. Visit the Global 13F & Congressional Whale Ledger for cross-market smart-money filings.

ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP β€’ SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring SMSI)

  • βœ“Walkthrough of SMSI's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
  • βœ“3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
  • βœ“Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks
RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED
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SMSI // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -48.99%β–² RESISTANCE BREAKOUT
2026-11-03O $2.35H $2.35L $2.27C $2.27VOL 25.0K
RES: $1.97SUP: $2.16SMA50: $2.64SMA200: $3.10
$4.82$4.11$3.40$2.69$1.98RES $1.97SUP $2.16$2.272026-05-042026-06-172026-08-042026-09-182026-11-03
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

SMSI Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)
8.0%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. -15.5% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on SMSI today. View full Setup Ledger β†’

πŸ¦‹ Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph β†’

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for SMSI. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for SMSI today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk β†’
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT β€’ SEC EDGAR XBRL Γ— RQD PEER BENCHMARK

πŸ“Š Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (SMSI)

1. Head-to-Head Technology Peer Comparison (SMSI vs. YAAS, UPLD, SAGT, VIDA)

Industry: Computer Software: Prepackaged Software (222 Tracked Issuers)

Across 714 tracked Technology securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Smith Micro Software Inc. (SMSI) ranks #630 by composite RQD confidence (28/100, grade E) and #632 by equity capitalization ($12.7M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, SMSI leads on earnings valuation at N/A trailing P/E, while UPLD leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 2.4% ROIC and 74.8% gross margin. SAGT currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 52/100 (D+) compared with SMSI at 28/100 (E).

Ticker / Company Roarable Grade RQD Score Trailing P/E Gross Margin ROIC 1D Change Market Cap Head-to-Head
SMSI ACTIVE
Smith Micro Software Inc.
E 28/100 β€” 74.1% -35.0% -3.40% $12.7M Benchmark Subject
YAAS
Youxin Technology Ltd (Class A)
D- 36/100 β€” 33.4% β€” -5.60% $11.9M /yaas-vs-smsi β†’
UPLD
Upland Software Inc.
D- 40/100 β€” 74.8% 2.4% +2.05% $11.8M /upld-vs-smsi β†’
SAGT
SAGTEC GLOBAL LIMITED (Class A)
D+ 52/100 β€” β€” β€” -0.20% $14.0M /sagt-vs-smsi β†’
VIDA
VIDA Global Inc. (Class A)
D- 41/100 β€” β€” β€” -7.47% $14.4M /vida-vs-smsi β†’

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K β€’ FILED 2025-12-31 β€’ CIK 0000948708

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Smith Micro Software Inc. (SMSI) reported GAAP revenue of $17.4M (-15.5% vs. FY2024 revenue of $20.6M , and -57.5% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of -$30.1K, operating cash flow of -$7.2M, and free cash flow of -$7.3M (+49.1% YoY). On the balance sheet, SMSI closed FY2025 with $25.0M in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 2/9).

Fiscal Period Filing Date Revenue Net Income Operating Cash Flow Free Cash Flow Total Assets Total Debt
FY2025 (FY) 2025-12-31 $17.4M -$30.1K -$7.2M -$7.3M $25.0M β€”
FY2024 (FY) 2024-12-31 $20.6M -$48.7K -$14.3M -$14.3M $48.0M β€”
FY2023 (FY) 2023-12-31 $40.9M -$24.4K -$7.0M -$7.0M β€” β€”

3. SMSI Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

βœ“ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is SMSI stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-03, Smith Micro Software Inc. (NASDAQ: SMSI) is rated E (Strong Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 28/100 at a spot price of $2.27 (-3.40% 1D, market cap $12.7M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 7/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 3/20, Executive Insider Alignment 8/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 7/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 3/20. Across 714 tracked Technology issuers, SMSI ranks #630 in composite RQD confidence.

How does SMSI compare to YAAS and UPLD in the Technology sector?

Within the Technology sector (Computer Software: Prepackaged Software), SMSI carries a Roarable E (28/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of 74.1%, and ROIC of -35.0%. By comparison, YAAS (Youxin Technology Ltd (Class A)) holds a D- grade (36/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC β€”, cap $11.9M) and UPLD (Upland Software Inc.) posts a D- grade (40/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC 2.4%, cap $11.8M). Among the 5-stock peer group, SMSI leads on earnings multiple (N/A) while UPLD leads on capital efficiency (2.4% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for SMSI?

Per SMSI's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0000948708), Smith Micro Software Inc. generated $17.4M in revenue (-15.5% YoY), -$30.1K in net income, and -$7.3M in free cash flow against $25.0M in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Technology with deep daily trading liquidity.. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is SMSI trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

SMSI last traded at $2.27 (-3.40% on volume of 25,034 shares), positioning the stock -14.02% below its 50-day simple moving average ($2.64) and -26.77% below its 200-day simple moving average ($3.10). Across its 52-week range of $2.05 to $4.65, SMSI sits at the 8.5% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 37.3 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of Β±11.7% ($2.00 to $2.54).

SMSI Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index

100% OPEN ACCESS β€’ SEC EDGAR Γ— CBOE Γ— FRED

Are SMSI insiders and hedge funds buying or selling?

Roarable's SEC Form 4 and 13F Whale Thermometer currently classifies SMSI leadership and institutional positioning as: NET EXECUTIVE TRIMMING / PROFIT-TAKING.

ROARABLE RATING BRIEF β€’ RQD 28/100 (E) βœ“ STAGE-C NUMBER FIREWALL VERIFIED

SMSI β€” Smith Micro Software Inc.: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Engine: anthropic/claude-haiku-5.5
As of: 2026-11-02T15:51:03Z

Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

Per the Roarable RQD rating, SMSI scores 28 out of 100 with a letter grade of E, labeled "Roarable Strong Sell β€” Forensic Risk / Avoid." The five pillars are:

  • Fundamental Cash Engine: 7 / 20. The rating cites ROIC of -35% and an FCF yield of 0%, indicating the business is not currently generating returns on invested capital or free cash flow relative to its valuation.
  • Whale 13F Flow: 3 / 20. Institutional accumulation and options positioning score poorly, reflecting weak smart-money support in the source data.
  • Insider Conviction: 3 / 20. SEC Form 4 and Congressional PTR cluster flow scores poorly, offering no insider signal of confidence.
  • Macro Regime Fit: 7 / 20. Beta of 1.0 and sector sensitivity give the stock a neutral-to-weak macro alignment score.
  • Forensic Balance Sheet: 8 / 20. Altman Z of 2.5, Piotroski F of 2/9, and Debt/Equity of 0.5 point to a fragile financial profile.

For a prospective investor evaluating the stock today, the implication is that the rating's weakest pillars (cash generation, insider conviction, and institutional flow) are the ones that most directly support a durable upside thesis. The upside case would require a turnaround in cash generation that the source data does not show. Valuation tradeoffs are severe: the stock trades at a $13.1M market capitalization with negative operating margin of -60%, so any investment rests on expectations of a reversal rather than current earnings. The Forensic Balance Sheet pillar adds downside risk if liquidity tightens further. The overall rating signals elevated risk relative to the source-data evidence.

Financial Trend

PeriodRevenueOperating IncomeNet IncomeEPSFCFCashDebt
FY 2025$17.4M$-29.0M$-0.0MN/A$-7.3M$1.5MN/A
FY 2024$20.6M$-49.4M$-0.0MN/A$-14.3M$2.8MN/A
FY 2023$40.9M$-18.1M$-0.0MN/A$-7.0MN/AN/A

Per the SEC financials, revenue declined from $40.9M in FY 2023 to $17.4M in FY 2025, while operating losses persisted in each period. Per the market data, gross margin is 74.1%, operating margin is -60%, and net margin is -0.2%, with ROIC of -35%. Per the Roarable RQD rating, the Altman Z-Score is 2.5, the Piotroski F-Score is 2/9, and Debt/Equity is 0.5. Cash declined from $2.8M to $1.5M across the reported periods.

Recent Catalysts & News Wire Analysis

Per the recent news feed, six items reference SMSI: a TradingView estimates report (YELLOW, market wire), a Yahoo Finance item referencing a Microsoft earnings beat (GREEN, catalyst), an Orange County Business Journal midday roundup (YELLOW, market wire), a TradingKey top-gainers report (GREEN, catalyst), a Simply Wall St analysis of BeLive Holdings (YELLOW, market wire), and a TradingKey high-dividend-yield piece (YELLOW, market wire). The feed items are generic market coverage; none states a specific company-level event for SMSI. Per the Butterfly Supply-Chain Graph, no supply-chain links or proprietary signals are recorded for SMSI.

Butterfly Effect: 2nd-Order Supply-Chain & Sector Ripples

Per the Butterfly Supply-Chain Graph, supply_chain is NONE, with no butterfly links and no proprietary signals. Upstream and downstream dependencies are not available in source data. Sector correlation and second-order bottlenecks are not available in source data beyond the sector classification of Technology / Computer Software: Prepackaged Software.

Open Questions

  • What are the company's products, customers, and revenue drivers, given that reported revenue fell from $40.9M to $17.4M?
  • What is the company's debt position, since debt figures are listed as N/A in every reported period?
  • Why are EPS, P/E, and EV/EBITDA unavailable, and what is the earnings trajectory?
  • What drove the cash decline from $2.8M to $1.5M, and what is the current runway given negative free cash flow?
  • Who are the institutional and insider holders, given that the holders section contains no data?

SMSI Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for Smith Micro Software Inc. (SMSI) β€’ Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

πŸ’¬ Jump to SMSI Debate Forum (3) ↓
πŸ”₯ THE ROAR PIT β€’ LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

SMSI Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board β€” What's Your Call at $2.27?

πŸ‚ 33% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON SMSI 🐻 67% BEARISH CONVICTION
1. Pick Your Side on SMSI:
πŸ’‘ Tip: Back up your call with a price target or RQD metric to get upvoted to the top.
RO RoarDesk_Moderator Roarable Research Desk 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $2.07 (-11.9%)
πŸ“Œ Pinned Debate

πŸ”₯ Official Bull vs. Bear Debate: Is SMSI (E β€’ RQD 28/100) a Buy at $2.35?

Welcome to the SMSI (Smith Micro Software Inc.) Roar Pit. Current RQD Composite is 28/100 (Roarable Strong Sell β€” Forensic Risk / Avoid) in Computer Software: Prepackaged Software. Bulls point to operating leverage and sector positioning, while bears focus on macro rate sensitivity and margin execution. Pick your side (πŸ‚ Bull or 🐻 Bear) and drop your price target below.

FO ForensicBear Forensic Accounting Watch 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $1.90 (-19.1%)
Spot @ $2.35

Pump the brakes on SMSI β€” check the valuation vs. margin headwinds

Everyone in here is repeating the bull case on SMSI, but look at what you are paying: current EV/EBITDA multiples with 74.1% gross margins. Unless Smith Micro Software Inc. expands free cash flow yield next quarter, I would rather wait for a pullback closer to the 200-day moving average before touching this.

AL AlphaFlow_Cap Verified K Arena Trader πŸ‚ BULLISH 🎯 Target: $2.98 (+26.8%)
Spot @ $2.35

SMSI cash flow & RQD setup is being underpriced by the Street here

Looking at the 5-pillar RQD breakdown on SMSI, the market is fixating on short-term headline noise in Computer Software: Prepackaged Software and ignoring the balance sheet and cash flow trajectory. At $2.35 (52-wk range $2.05 - $4.65), any beat on forward guidance forces shorts and underweight funds to chase.

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