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Shoulder Innovations Inc. (SI) 12-Month Stock Forecast & Price Target Cone

$19.32 +0.99% NYSE • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $19.32

Shoulder Innovations Inc. (SI) carries a Roarable Rating of D (Sell) with 44/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

ROARABLE D • SELL / AVOID Cap $398.3M
📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card
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🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is SI stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
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As of 2026-11-03, Shoulder Innovations Inc. (NYSE: SI) is rated D (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 44/100 at a spot price of $19.32 (+0.99% 1D, market cap $398.3M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 9/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 10/20, Executive Insider Alignment 11/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 11/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 3/20. Across 1016 tracked Health Care issuers, SI ranks #394 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does SI compare to CARL and NPCE in the Health Care sector?
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Within the Health Care sector (Medical/Dental Instruments), SI carries a Roarable D (44/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of 76.5%, and ROIC of -16.1%. By comparison, CARL (Carlsmed Inc.) holds a D- grade (38/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -35.0%, cap $408.2M) and NPCE (Neuropace Inc.) posts a E grade (21/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -23.0%, cap $422.2M). Among the 5-stock peer group, EMBC leads on earnings multiple (3.9x) while EMBC leads on capital efficiency (35.5% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for SI?
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Per SI's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001699350), Shoulder Innovations Inc. generated $47.3M in revenue (+49.6% YoY), -$40.4M in net income, and -$36.0M in free cash flow against $169.9M in total assets and $14.9M in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Health Care with deep daily trading liquidity.. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
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INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $19.32 (-0.01%)🧬 Dilution Drag (+2.48% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 9/20 (D) • 0% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →
📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (44/100 · D) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows (-6.5% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 29.0% hit rate).
Audit Bucket Track Record →
RQD QUANT TACHOMETERSELL / AVOID • D
025507510044
2-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bearish Warning
Cash
SEC
Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw D- · Rk D+
Cash (9)Whales (10)SEC (11)Macro (11)CEO (3)
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE-6.3% Base Target
$26 Bull$18 Base$14 Bear
📬 FREE SI RATING-CHANGE & BRIEFING ALERTSManage / Unsubscribe
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for SI)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±11.3%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (44/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY SI SCORES 44/100 (D) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+11/20 pts (25% of score)

Altman Z-Score 8.73 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) • Piotroski F-Score 5/9

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Macro Regime Fit+11/20 pts (25% of score)

FRED Regime × Technicals: 61% of 52W Range • RSI-14 at 50 (NEUTRAL RANGE)

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution4/20 pts (-16 pt drag)

Dilution Drag (+2.48% YoY Shares) & executive Form 4 sales trim 16 pts from alignment

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)
36
Grade E$18.07+3.6% Next Q
Q2 (-2Q)
39
Grade E$18.72+3.3% Next Q
Q3 (-1Q)
41
Grade D$19.34-0.1% Next Q
Current
44
Grade D$19.32-6.5% Hist 90D α
Trajectory: E (36) → D (44)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a SI Turnaround Squeeze

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

While SI currently carries a cautious 44/100 (D) rating due to Insider Conviction & Share Dilution (4/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1

Established market leader in Health Care with deep daily trading liquidity.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2

Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($19.09) and Max Pain ($20.29) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $25.82.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3

Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Dilution Drag (+2.48% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $SI• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “SI Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
YES 44%NO 56%Trade / Inspect Odds →
INTERACTIVE 12-MONTH POSITION SIMULATOR

Drag to Test Your SI Position Size: $10,000

Shares at $19.32: 517.6 sh
$1,000$10,000$25,000$50,000$100,000
12M Bear Case FloorTarget $14.12
$7,308
$-2,692 (-26.9%)
12M Consensus BaseTarget $18.10
$9,369
$-631 (-6.3%)
12M Bull Case BreakoutTarget $25.82
$13,364
+$3,364 (+33.6%)

Wall Street Analyst Breakdown & Historical Accuracy Audit (35 Desks)

Street Historical Accuracy: 64/100
● Strong Buy / Buy: 17● Hold: 9● Sell: 9
Wall Street FirmStance12M Target1Y AccuracyTrack Grade
Morgan StanleyInstitutional Equity DeskHOLD$1974%A
Goldman SachsSector Coverage LeadUNDERPERFORM$2469%B
JP MorganUS Large-Cap ResearchSELL$1658%C
ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring SI)

  • ✓Walkthrough of SI's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
  • ✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
  • ✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks
RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED
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SI // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +48.27%▼ DESCENDING CHANNEL
2026-11-03O $20.44H $20.44L $19.13C $19.32VOL 119.3K
RES: $20.64SUP: $14.99SMA50: $19.09SMA200: $17.07
$25.45$21.88$18.31$14.73$11.16RES $20.64SUP $14.99$19.322026-05-042026-06-172026-08-042026-09-182026-11-03
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

SI Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 SI Butterfly Map → + Track SI →
Share Count & Dilution Monitor

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle
8.0%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +49.6% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on SI today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for SI. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for SI today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (SI)

Health Care Rank #394 of 1016 ⚔️ CARL vs SI Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Health Care Peer Comparison (SI vs. CARL, NPCE, OFIX, EMBC)

Industry: Medical/Dental Instruments (120 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1016 tracked Health Care securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Shoulder Innovations Inc. (SI) ranks #394 by composite RQD confidence (44/100, grade D) and #474 by equity capitalization ($398.3M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, EMBC leads on earnings valuation at 3.9x trailing P/E, while EMBC leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 35.5% ROIC and 62.6% gross margin. EMBC currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 68/100 (C+) compared with SI at 44/100 (D).

Ticker / Company Roarable Grade RQD Score Trailing P/E Gross Margin ROIC 1D Change Market Cap Head-to-Head
SI ACTIVE
Shoulder Innovations Inc.
D 44/100 — 76.5% -16.1% +0.99% $398.3M Benchmark Subject
CARL
Carlsmed Inc.
D- 38/100 — 75.3% -35.0% +0.47% $408.2M /carl-vs-si →
NPCE
Neuropace Inc.
E 21/100 — 77.2% -23.0% +0.33% $422.2M /npce-vs-si →
OFIX
Orthofix Medical Inc.
D- 42/100 — 68.8% -12.2% -3.53% $369.4M /ofix-vs-si →
EMBC
Embecta Corp.
C+ 68/100 3.9x 62.6% 35.5% -0.96% $354.1M /embc-vs-si →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2024–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001699350

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Shoulder Innovations Inc. (SI) reported GAAP revenue of $47.3M (+49.6% vs. FY2024 revenue of $31.6M ) , GAAP net income of -$40.4M, operating cash flow of -$28.6M, and free cash flow of -$36.0M (-98.4% YoY). On the balance sheet, SI closed FY2025 with $169.9M in total assets against $14.9M in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 8.73, Piotroski F-Score: 5/9).

Fiscal Period Filing Date Revenue Net Income Operating Cash Flow Free Cash Flow Total Assets Total Debt
FY2025 (FY) 2025-12-31 $47.3M -$40.4M -$28.6M -$36.0M $169.9M $14.9M
FY2024 (FY) 2024-12-31 $31.6M -$15.6M -$14.1M -$18.2M $43.1M $14.7M

3. SI Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is SI stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-03, Shoulder Innovations Inc. (NYSE: SI) is rated D (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 44/100 at a spot price of $19.32 (+0.99% 1D, market cap $398.3M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 9/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 10/20, Executive Insider Alignment 11/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 11/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 3/20. Across 1016 tracked Health Care issuers, SI ranks #394 in composite RQD confidence.

How does SI compare to CARL and NPCE in the Health Care sector?

Within the Health Care sector (Medical/Dental Instruments), SI carries a Roarable D (44/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of 76.5%, and ROIC of -16.1%. By comparison, CARL (Carlsmed Inc.) holds a D- grade (38/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -35.0%, cap $408.2M) and NPCE (Neuropace Inc.) posts a E grade (21/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -23.0%, cap $422.2M). Among the 5-stock peer group, EMBC leads on earnings multiple (3.9x) while EMBC leads on capital efficiency (35.5% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for SI?

Per SI's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001699350), Shoulder Innovations Inc. generated $47.3M in revenue (+49.6% YoY), -$40.4M in net income, and -$36.0M in free cash flow against $169.9M in total assets and $14.9M in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Health Care with deep daily trading liquidity.. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is SI trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

SI last traded at $19.32 (+0.99% on volume of 65,519 shares), positioning the stock +1.20% above its 50-day simple moving average ($19.09) and +13.18% above its 200-day simple moving average ($17.07). Across its 52-week range of $10.92 to $24.59, SI sits at the 61.4% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 50.0 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±11.3% ($17.14 to $21.50).

Direct Sub-Reports: SI RQD Cockpit SI 12M Forecast SI Earnings & Move SI Dividends & DRIP SI Insiders & 13F SI Whale Options SI Profit Sankey SI News & Why
ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 44/100 (D) ✓ SEC XBRL & RQD VERIFIED

SI — Shoulder Innovations Inc.: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Methodology: RQD v6.2 Deterministic 5-Pillar & SEC XBRL Audit
Updated: 2025-12-31

1. Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

Shoulder Innovations Inc. (SI) earns a live Roarable RQD composite score of 44/100, corresponding to a D letter grade (Roarable Sell) at a spot price of $19.32 (+0.99% 1D, market capitalization $398.3M).

  • Fundamental Cash Engine (9/20): Anchored by return on invested capital (ROIC) of -16.1%, gross margin of 76.5%, operating margin of -55.6%, and free cash flow yield of -8.46%.
  • Whale 13F & Options Flow (10/20) + Insider Conviction (11/20): Tracks institutional 13F accumulation, CBOE options call/put positioning, and SEC Form 4 / Congressional PTR filings.
  • Macro Regime Fit (11/20) + Forensic Balance Sheet (3/20): Incorporates a 1.00x equity beta, Altman Z-Score of 8.73, Piotroski F-Score of 5/9, and Debt/Equity of 0.11x.

2. Business Model, Unit Margins & SEC Financial Trajectory

Shoulder Innovations Inc. Is a NYSE-listed issuer classified in the Health Care sector and the Medical/Dental Instruments industry. The profile does not describe its specific products, customers, or revenue model. The company reported revenue of $47.3M for FY 2025, up from $31.6M for FY 2024.

In its latest audited SEC EDGAR 10-K filing for FY2025 (filed 2025-12-31), Shoulder Innovations Inc. (SI) reported $47.3M in annual revenue (up from $31.6M in FY2024, +49.6% YoY) and -$40.4M in GAAP net income. Over the multi-year SEC filing window from FY2024 ($31.6M revenue, -$15.6M net income) through FY2025, SI scaled operating cash flow to -$28.6M and free cash flow to -$36.0M, backed by $169.9M in total assets against $14.9M in total debt.

3. Institutional Bull vs. Bear Thesis & Valuation Tradeoff

  • 🐂 Primary Bull Case (D • RQD 44/100): Established market leader in Health Care with deep daily trading liquidity. Free cash flow yield of -8.46% and institutional whale pillar of 10/20. With Fundamental Cash Engine at 9/20 and Institutional Whale Flow at 10/20, sustained execution supports upside toward the upper end of the $10.92 – $24.59 52-week range.
  • 🐻 Primary Bear Case & Valuation Risk: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. Investors must weigh current valuation against -55.6% operating margins and a 1.00x macro beta.

4. 2nd-Order Butterfly Ripples & Key Questions to Watch

— The Butterfly Supply-Chain Graph lists supply_chain as NONE with empty butterfly_links and proprietary_signals, so upstream and downstream dependencies, sector correlations, and second-order bottlenecks cannot be identified from the provided sources.

  • Key Question #1: Can SI sustain or expand its -55.6% operating margin and -16.1% ROIC against Medical/Dental Instruments peers over the next 4 quarters?
  • Key Question #2: Following FY2025 revenue of $47.3M and free cash flow of -$36.0M, how will capital allocation balance growth reinvestment against $14.9M in total debt?
  • Key Question #3: How sensitive is SI's equity valuation to Health Care capital spending cycles and macro interest-rate shifts (Beta 1.00x)?

SI Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for Shoulder Innovations Inc. (SI) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to SI Debate Forum (3) ↓
🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

SI Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $19.32?

🐂 67% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON SI 🐻 33% BEARISH CONVICTION
1. Pick Your Side on SI:
💡 Tip: Back up your call with a price target or RQD metric to get upvoted to the top.
DE DeepValue_CFA RQD DEBATE OPENER • Institutional Buy-Side 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $22.00 (+15.0%)
📌 Pinned Debate

Balance sheet is comparatively strong with a Altman Z-Score of 8.73 and Debt/Equity of 0.11, and cash rose to $26.9M in FY 2025.

Balance sheet is comparatively strong with a Altman Z-Score of 8.73 and Debt/Equity of 0.11, and cash rose to $26.9M in FY 2025.. When you look under the hood at SI, Fundamental Cash Engine is 9/20 with 76.5% gross margins and -16.1% ROIC. Bears are staring in the rearview mirror while institutional 13F flow (10/20) has been quietly accumulating below $24.59. My 12M target is $22.00.

CapAlloc_Nerd 🐂 BULL

@RedlineAuditor Fair point on current EV/EBITDA multiples, but you're ignoring the forward operating leverage in Medical/Dental Instruments. If gross margin (76.5%) holds, EPS grows into the multiple faster than bears think.

RE RedlineAuditor RQD DEBATE OPENER • Accounting Quality Watch 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $14.73 (-23.0%)
Spot @ $19.13

Cash engine is weakest at 9 / 20 with ROIC of -16.1% and FCF yield of -8.46%, and insider conviction scores only 3 / 20.

Careful chasing SI at $19.13. Cash engine is weakest at 9 / 20 with ROIC of -16.1% and FCF yield of -8.46%, and insider conviction scores only 3 / 20.. Gross margin is 76.5%, but operating margin is -55.6%, which shows SG&A and reinvestment are eating into bottom-line EPS. Target $14.73 on multiple compression.

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