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Stock Ratings / Technology / SHOP / options
CRWD (63) SAP (75) NOW (63) SNOW (55) ⌘ Pro Terminal β†’

Shopify Inc. Class A Subordinate Voting Shares (SHOP) Options Positioning, Max Pain & Unusual Sweeps

$157.49 -5.63% NASDAQ β€’ Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $156.27

Shopify Inc. Class A Subordinate Voting Shares (SHOP) earns a Roarable Rating of B- (Buy) with 70/100 RQD Confidence. High-quality cash engine (48% profit margin, 7% return on capital) with steady institutional support. The company’s underlying cash engine and institutional positioning keep the composite score in the Green Buy zone.

πŸ“Š Historical Track Record: Scores of 70/100 (B-) historically ranked in the Top 15% of excess returns over the next 90 days (+6.6% avg 90D alpha vs SPY β€’ 68.1% hit rate) β†’
ROARABLE B- β€’ BUY Cap $204.08B
πŸ“€ Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card
⚑ INSTANT AI QUANT PREVIEW β€’ $0 FREE TIER Click Any Pre-Computed AI Quant Specialist Briefing on SHOP Below β€” or Connect Your Own ChatGPT / Claude
πŸ€– Mara Quenwick β€’ AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is SHOP stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
β–Ό

As of 2026-11-03, Shopify Inc. Class A Subordinate Voting Shares (NASDAQ: SHOP) is rated B- (Buy / BUY) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 70/100 at a spot price of $157.49 (-5.63% 1D, market cap $204.08B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 14/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 16/20, Executive Insider Alignment 18/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 12/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 10/20. Across 714 tracked Technology issuers, SHOP ranks #67 in composite RQD confidence.

βœ“ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
πŸ€– Ellis Vennor β€’ AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does SHOP compare to CRWD and SAP in the Technology sector?
β–Ό

Within the Technology sector (Computer Software: Prepackaged Software), SHOP carries a Roarable B- (70/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of 48.1%, and ROIC of 6.7%. By comparison, CRWD (CrowdStrike Holdings Inc.) holds a C grade (63/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -1.1%, cap $256.42B) and SAP (SAP SE ADS) posts a B grade (75/100 RQD, P/E 21.7x, ROIC 14.9%, cap $288.72B). Among the 5-stock peer group, SAP leads on earnings multiple (21.7x) while SAP leads on capital efficiency (14.9% ROIC).

βœ“ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
πŸ€– Gideon Ashmere β€’ AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for SHOP?
β–Ό

Per SHOP's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001594805), Shopify Inc. Class A Subordinate Voting Shares generated $11.56B in revenue (+30.1% YoY), $1.23B in net income, and $2.01B in free cash flow against $15.19B in total assets and $3.55B in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Big institutional funds and options desks are actively positioning on the bullish side.. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

βœ“ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
πŸ€– AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists β€” not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
πŸ›‘οΈ Portfolio Crash X-Ray
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $156.28 (-0.77%)🧬 Disciplined Float (+0.52% YoY Shares)βš™οΈ Cash Engine: 14/20 (B-) β€’ 17.4% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit β†’
πŸ“Š Historical Track Record: Scores of 70/100 (B-) historically ranked in the Top 15% of excess returns over the next 90 days (+6.6% avg 90D alpha vs SPY β€’ 68.1% hit rate).
Audit Bucket Track Record β†’
RQD QUANT TACHOMETERBUY β€’ B-
025507510070
2-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bullish
Cash
SEC
Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) β€” not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw C+ Β· Rk B
Cash (14)Whales (16)SEC (18)Macro (12)CEO (10)
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE+5.4% Base Target
$196 Bull$166 Base$129 Bear
πŸ“¬ FREE SHOP RATING-CHANGE & BRIEFING ALERTSManage / Unsubscribe
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: β€” (No Active Options Snapshot on file for SHOP)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: Β±8.8%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (70/100 Composite)
πŸ” WHY SHOP SCORES 70/100 (B-) β€” TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
β–² #1 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+18/20 pts (26% of score)

Altman Z-Score 19.69 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) β€’ Piotroski F-Score 8/9

β–² #2 Bullish Driver: Whale & Options Positioning+16/20 pts (23% of score)

20D Institutional Volume Accumulation (Β±8.8% realized swing band)

β–Ό #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution10/20 pts (-10 pt drag)

Disciplined Float (+0.52% YoY Shares) & executive Form 4 sales trim 10 pts from alignment

πŸ“ˆ PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 β†’ Q2 β†’ Q3 β†’ Current
Q1 (-3Q)
78
Grade A-$172.50+1% Next Q
Q2 (-2Q)
75
Grade B+$174.29-3.5% Next Q
Q3 (-1Q)
73
Grade B$168.22-6.4% Next Q
Current
70
Grade B-$157.49+6.6% Hist 90D Ξ±
Trajectory: A- (78) β†’ B- (70)Full Audit β†’
βš”οΈ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER

βš”οΈ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the SHOP Bull Thesis Could Fail

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk β†’

Even with a 70/100 (B-) score, SHOP faces multiple-compression risk if current valuation multiples re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1

Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2

Dilution & Margin Drag: Disciplined Float (+0.52% YoY Shares) β€” any gross margin slip below 45.6% triggers an automatic RQD downgrade.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3

Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($153.54) or 200D SMA ($130.05) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($165.99) toward Bear Floor ($129.14).

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $SHOPβ€’ $4.8M Crowd Pool β€’ Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: β€œSHOP Beats Next Quarterly Revenue & EPS Consensus + Hyperscaler AI CapEx Holds Record Pace”
YES 70%NO 30%Trade / Inspect Odds β†’
CALL VS. PUT WHALE SHARE
β€” (No Active Options Snapshot)
Put/Call Ratio: β€” (No Active Options Snapshot)
MAX-PAIN EXPIRATION MAGNET
β€” (No Active Options Snapshot)
No active options chain max-pain snapshot on file
HISTORICAL 20D VOLATILITY SWING
Β±8.8%
Derived from 20D OHLCV bars (No Active Options Snapshot)

Active Strike Call vs. Put Concentration Ladder (SHOP)

β€” (No Active Options Snapshot) β€” No unusual CBOE strike concentration anomalies recorded in the current database snapshot for SHOP.

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FTC Disclosure: Roarable may receive partner referral compensation at no cost to you. Partner relationships never influence RQD scores.

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Whale Flow & Momentum Playbook: Evaluating SHOP & AI Leaders Without Chasing Tops

  • βœ“Institutional whale strikes & implied earnings move audit on SHOP
  • βœ“How disciplined traders manage risk using pre-published trigger & invalidation levels
  • βœ“Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on tracked leaders
RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED
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SHOP // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +23.47%β–² ASCENDING CHANNEL
2026-11-03O $166.9H $166.9L $157.5C $157.5VOL 10.54M
RES: $190.2SUP: $138.5SMA50: $153.5SMA200: $130.1
$187.0$161.8$136.6$111.4$86.18RES $190.2SUP $138.5$157.52026-05-042026-06-182026-08-052026-09-212026-11-03
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

SHOP Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

πŸ¦‹ SHOP Butterfly Map β†’ + Track SHOP β†’
Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)
48.0%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +30.1% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on SHOP today. View full Setup Ledger β†’

πŸ¦‹ Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph β†’

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for SHOP. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for SHOP today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk β†’
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT β€’ SEC EDGAR XBRL Γ— RQD PEER BENCHMARK

πŸ“Š Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (SHOP)

Technology Rank #67 of 714 βš”οΈ CRWD vs SHOP Full Matrix β†’

1. Head-to-Head Technology Peer Comparison (SHOP vs. CRWD, SAP, NOW, SNOW)

Industry: Computer Software: Prepackaged Software (222 Tracked Issuers)

Across 714 tracked Technology securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Shopify Inc. Class A Subordinate Voting Shares (SHOP) ranks #67 by composite RQD confidence (70/100, grade B-) and #28 by equity capitalization ($204.08B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, SAP leads on earnings valuation at 21.7x trailing P/E, while SAP leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 14.9% ROIC and β€” gross margin. SAP currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 75/100 (B) compared with SHOP at 70/100 (B-).

Ticker / Company Roarable Grade RQD Score Trailing P/E Gross Margin ROIC 1D Change Market Cap Head-to-Head
SHOP ACTIVE
Shopify Inc. Class A Subordinate Voting Shares
B- 70/100 β€” 48.1% 6.7% -5.63% $204.08B Benchmark Subject
CRWD
CrowdStrike Holdings Inc.
C 63/100 β€” 74.7% -1.1% -4.11% $256.42B /crwd-vs-shop β†’
SAP
SAP SE ADS
B 75/100 21.7x β€” 14.9% +0.41% $288.72B /sap-vs-shop β†’
NOW
ServiceNow Inc.
C 63/100 65.1x 77.5% 9.8% -4.15% $109.11B /now-vs-shop β†’
SNOW
Snowflake Inc.
D+ 55/100 β€” 67.2% -12.2% -7.32% $107.99B /snow-vs-shop β†’

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K β€’ FILED 2025-12-31 β€’ CIK 0001594805

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Shopify Inc. Class A Subordinate Voting Shares (SHOP) reported GAAP revenue of $11.56B (+30.1% vs. FY2024 revenue of $8.88B , and +63.7% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $1.23B, operating cash flow of $2.03B, and free cash flow of $2.01B (+25.7% YoY). On the balance sheet, SHOP closed FY2025 with $15.19B in total assets against $3.55B in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 19.69, Piotroski F-Score: 8/9).

Fiscal Period Filing Date Revenue Net Income Operating Cash Flow Free Cash Flow Total Assets Total Debt
FY2025 (FY) 2025-12-31 $11.56B $1.23B $2.03B $2.01B $15.19B $3.55B
FY2024 (FY) 2024-12-31 $8.88B $2.02B $1.62B $1.60B $13.92B $3.26B
FY2023 (FY) 2023-12-31 $7.06B $132.0M $944.0M $626.3M $118.94B $27.83B

3. SHOP Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

βœ“ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is SHOP stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-03, Shopify Inc. Class A Subordinate Voting Shares (NASDAQ: SHOP) is rated B- (Buy / BUY) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 70/100 at a spot price of $157.49 (-5.63% 1D, market cap $204.08B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 14/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 16/20, Executive Insider Alignment 18/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 12/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 10/20. Across 714 tracked Technology issuers, SHOP ranks #67 in composite RQD confidence.

How does SHOP compare to CRWD and SAP in the Technology sector?

Within the Technology sector (Computer Software: Prepackaged Software), SHOP carries a Roarable B- (70/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of 48.1%, and ROIC of 6.7%. By comparison, CRWD (CrowdStrike Holdings Inc.) holds a C grade (63/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -1.1%, cap $256.42B) and SAP (SAP SE ADS) posts a B grade (75/100 RQD, P/E 21.7x, ROIC 14.9%, cap $288.72B). Among the 5-stock peer group, SAP leads on earnings multiple (21.7x) while SAP leads on capital efficiency (14.9% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for SHOP?

Per SHOP's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001594805), Shopify Inc. Class A Subordinate Voting Shares generated $11.56B in revenue (+30.1% YoY), $1.23B in net income, and $2.01B in free cash flow against $15.19B in total assets and $3.55B in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Big institutional funds and options desks are actively positioning on the bullish side.. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is SHOP trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

SHOP last traded at $157.49 (-5.63% on volume of 10,541,426 shares), positioning the stock +2.57% above its 50-day simple moving average ($153.54) and +21.10% above its 200-day simple moving average ($130.05). Across its 52-week range of $94.00 to $180.88, SHOP sits at the 73.1% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 45.1 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of Β±8.8% ($143.63 to $171.35).

SHOP Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index

100% OPEN ACCESS β€’ SEC EDGAR Γ— CBOE Γ— FRED

What is SHOP's options positioning and volatility profile?

Roarable tracks verified CBOE unusual options sweeps, put/call ratios, and OHLCV realized volatility bands for SHOP.

Direct Sub-Reports: SHOP RQD Cockpit SHOP 12M Forecast SHOP Earnings & Move SHOP Dividends & DRIP SHOP Insiders & 13F SHOP Whale Options SHOP Profit Sankey SHOP News & Why
ROARABLE RATING BRIEF β€’ RQD 70/100 (B-) βœ“ STAGE-C NUMBER FIREWALL VERIFIED

SHOP β€” Shopify Inc. Class A Subordinate Voting Shares: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Engine: anthropic/claude-haiku-5.5
As of: 2026-11-02T15:08:35Z

Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

Per the Roarable RQD rating, SHOP holds an RQD Score of 71 and a letter grade of B-, with the verdict "Roarable Buy β€” Sound Institutional Accumulation." The five pillars are scored as follows:

  • Fundamental Cash Engine: 14 / 20. Per the Roarable RQD rating, this pillar reflects ROIC of 6.7% and an FCF yield of 0.93%. For a prospective investor, the modest ROIC and thin FCF yield indicate that cash generation relative to the current price is limited, which constrains the valuation support available from cash flow alone.
  • Whale 13F Flow: 17 / 20. Per the Roarable RQD rating, this pillar is labeled as institutional accumulation and options positioning. This is the strongest pillar in the score and suggests that large holders have been adding exposure, though the source data does not itemize the underlying 13F filings.
  • Insider Conviction: 10 / 20. Per the Roarable RQD rating, this pillar covers SEC Form 4 and Congressional PTR cluster flow. The mid-range score indicates insider activity is not a strong confirming signal either way.
  • Macro Regime Fit: 12 / 20. Per the Roarable RQD rating, beta is 1.22 and the pillar reflects sector sensitivity. A prospective investor should expect the stock to amplify broader market moves.
  • Forensic Balance Sheet: 18 / 20. Per the Roarable RQD rating, this pillar cites Altman Z of 19.69, Piotroski F of 8/9, and Debt/Equity of 0.23. This is the second-strongest pillar and points to a financially sound balance sheet.

Taken together, the investor implication is a split profile: balance-sheet and institutional-flow strength offset weaker cash-return metrics and elevated valuation signals (EV/EBITDA of 95 per the market data). Upside drivers are institutional accumulation and balance-sheet resilience; the main valuation tradeoff is that the price is supported by growth expectations rather than current cash yield.

Business

Per the profile, Shopify Inc. Class A Subordinate Voting Shares operates in the Technology sector, within the Computer Software: Prepackaged Software industry, and is listed on NASDAQ. Per the market data, the company reports a gross margin of 48.1%, an operating margin of 12.7%, and a net margin of 10.7%. The source data does not describe its products, customers, or specific revenue model.

Financial Trend

PeriodRevenueOperating IncomeNet IncomeEPSFCFCashDebt
FY 2025$11556.0M$1468.0M$1231.0MN/A$2007.0M$1545.0M$3554.2M
FY 2024$8880.0M$1075.0M$2019.0MN/A$1597.0M$1498.0M$3258.2M
FY 2023$7060.0M$-1418.0M$132.0MN/A$626.3MN/A$27832.4M

Per the SEC financials, revenue rose from $7060.0M in FY 2023 to $11556.0M in FY 2025, and operating income moved from a loss of $-1418.0M to $1468.0M over the same span. Net income in FY 2024 ($2019.0M) exceeded FY 2025 ($1231.0M), and the source does not explain the difference. Per the Roarable RQD rating, ROIC is 6.7%, Altman Z is 19.69, and Piotroski F is 8/9. Per the SEC financials, FY 2025 debt of $3554.2M compares with $27832.4M reported for FY 2023, and the source does not explain that change.

Butterfly Effect: 2nd-Order Supply-Chain & Sector Ripples

Per the Butterfly Supply-Chain Graph, the supply chain is listed as NONE, with no butterfly links and no proprietary signals. Sector classification is Technology / Computer Software: Prepackaged Software. The source data does not identify upstream or downstream dependencies, sector correlations, or second-order bottlenecks.

Open Questions

  • What drove the swing from a FY 2023 operating loss of $-1418.0M to FY 2025 operating income of $1468.0M, and is it sustainable?
  • Why did net income decline from $2019.0M in FY 2024 to $1231.0M in FY 2025 while revenue grew?
  • What explains the reduction in reported debt from $27832.4M (FY 2023) to $3554.2M (FY 2025)?
  • Which 13F holders are driving the institutional accumulation signal behind the 17 / 20 flow pillar?
  • What are the EPS (TTM) and forward P/E, which the source data does not provide, and how do they compare with the EV/EBITDA of 95?

SHOP Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for Shopify Inc. Class A Subordinate Voting Shares (SHOP) β€’ Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

πŸ’¬ Jump to SHOP Debate Forum (3) ↓
πŸ”₯ THE ROAR PIT β€’ LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

SHOP Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board β€” What's Your Call at $157.49?

πŸ‚ 67% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON SHOP 🐻 33% BEARISH CONVICTION
1. Pick Your Side on SHOP:
πŸ’‘ Tip: Back up your call with a price target or RQD metric to get upvoted to the top.
RO RoarDesk_Moderator Roarable Research Desk πŸ‚ BULLISH 🎯 Target: $196.93 (+18.0%)
πŸ“Œ Pinned Debate

πŸ”₯ Official Bull vs. Bear Debate: Is SHOP (B- β€’ RQD 71/100) a Buy at $166.89?

Welcome to the SHOP (Shopify Inc. Class A Subordinate Voting Shares) Roar Pit. Current RQD Composite is 71/100 (Roarable Buy β€” Sound Institutional Accumulation) in Computer Software: Prepackaged Software. Bulls point to operating leverage and sector positioning, while bears focus on macro rate sensitivity and margin execution. Pick your side (πŸ‚ Bull or 🐻 Bear) and drop your price target below.

RI RiskArb_Desk Forensic Accounting Watch 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $133.51 (-20.0%)
Spot @ $166.89

Pump the brakes on SHOP β€” check the valuation vs. margin headwinds

Everyone in here is repeating the bull case on SHOP, but look at what you are paying: current EV/EBITDA multiples with 48.1% gross margins. Unless Shopify Inc. Class A Subordinate Voting Shares expands free cash flow yield next quarter, I would rather wait for a pullback closer to the 200-day moving average before touching this.

MA MacroHawk_NYC Verified K Arena Trader πŸ‚ BULLISH 🎯 Target: $205.27 (+23.0%)
Spot @ $166.89

SHOP cash flow & RQD setup is being underpriced by the Street here

Looking at the 5-pillar RQD breakdown on SHOP, the market is fixating on short-term headline noise in Computer Software: Prepackaged Software and ignoring the balance sheet and cash flow trajectory. At $166.89 (52-wk range $94.00 - $180.88), any beat on forward guidance forces shorts and underweight funds to chase.

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