Stock Ratings / Consumer Discretionary / SHAK / forecast

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Shake Shack Inc. (SHAK) 12-Month Stock Forecast & Price Target Cone

$70.48 -0.04% NYSE • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $70.34

Shake Shack Inc. (SHAK) carries a Roarable Rating of D (Sell) with 49/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (49/100 · D) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows →

ROARABLE D • SELL / AVOID Cap $3.02B

📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card

⚡ INSTANT AI QUANT PREVIEW • $0 FREE TIER Click Any Pre-Computed AI Quant Specialist Briefing on SHAK Below — or Connect Your Own ChatGPT / Claude

🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is SHAK stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

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As of 2026-11-02, Shake Shack Inc. (NYSE: SHAK) is rated D (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 49/100 at a spot price of $70.48 (-0.04% 1D, market cap $3.02B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 11/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 12/20, Executive Insider Alignment 11/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 4/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 11/20. Across 1011 tracked Consumer Discretionary issuers, SHAK ranks #569 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does SHAK compare to WING and CHA in the Consumer Discretionary sector?

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Within the Consumer Discretionary sector (Restaurants), SHAK carries a Roarable D (49/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 60.7x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 6.8%. By comparison, WING (Wingstop Inc.) holds a C+ grade (66/100 RQD, P/E 22.6x, ROIC 45.0%, cap $3.93B) and CHA (Chagee Holdings Limited) posts a B grade (75/100 RQD, P/E 13.7x, ROIC 85.0%, cap $2.29B). Among the 5-stock peer group, CHA leads on earnings multiple (13.7x) while CHA leads on capital efficiency (85.0% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for SHAK?

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Per SHAK's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001620533), Shake Shack Inc. generated $1.45B in revenue (+15.4% YoY), $49.7M in net income, and $56.5M in free cash flow against $1.90B in total assets and $604.1M in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Consumer Discretionary with deep daily trading liquidity.. Primary risk factors monitored: Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).

INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:

🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray

EXT / AFTER-HRS: $70.34 (-0.20%)🧬 Disciplined Float (+0.24% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 11/20 (D+) • 3.9% FCF Margin

Verify 90D Bucket Audit →

📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (49/100 · D) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows (-5.4% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 29.0% hit rate).

Audit Bucket Track Record →

RQD QUANT TACHOMETERSELL / AVOID • D

JEV AI Jury Split (Battleground)

Cash

SEC

Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw D+ · Rk D-

Each axis scored 0–20

12M PRICE TARGET CONE-4% Base Target

WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for SHAK)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±9%

Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (49/100 Composite)

🔍 WHY SHAK SCORES 49/100 (D) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag

▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Whale & Options Positioning+12/20 pts (24% of score)

20D Institutional Volume Accumulation (±9% realized swing band)

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Cash Engine Quality+11/20 pts (22% of score)

SEC XBRL FY 2025 (10-K): 3.9% FCF Margin ($56.5M FCF) & 52% Gross Margin

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Macro Regime Fit4/20 pts (-16 pt drag)

Macro rate sensitivity & RSI-14 (60.2) create a -16 pt regime headwind

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current

Q1 (-3Q)

Grade C$71.06-1.9% Next Q

Q2 (-2Q)

Grade C-$69.74-7.5% Next Q

Q3 (-1Q)

Grade C-$64.54+9.2% Next Q

Current

Grade D$70.48-5.4% Hist 90D α

Trajectory: C (57) → D (49)Full Audit →

⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a SHAK Turnaround Squeeze

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

While SHAK currently carries a cautious 49/100 (D) rating due to Macro Regime Fit (4/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1

Established market leader in Consumer Discretionary with deep daily trading liquidity.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2

Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($65.07) and Max Pain ($74.00) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $112.83.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3

Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Disciplined Float (+0.24% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $SHAK• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite

Contract: “SHAK Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”

YES 49%NO 51%Trade / Inspect Odds →

INTERACTIVE 12-MONTH POSITION SIMULATOR

Drag to Test Your SHAK Position Size: $10,000

Shares at $70.48: 141.9 sh

$1,000$10,000$25,000$50,000$100,000

12M Bear Case FloorTarget $52.75

$7,484

$-2,516 (-25.2%)

12M Consensus BaseTarget $67.63

$9,596

$-404 (-4.0%)

12M Bull Case BreakoutTarget $112.83

$16,009

+$6,009 (+60.1%)

Wall Street Analyst Breakdown & Historical Accuracy Audit (32 Desks)

Street Historical Accuracy: 64/100

● Strong Buy / Buy: 17● Hold: 9● Sell: 6

Wall Street Firm	Stance	12M Target	1Y Accuracy	Track Grade
Morgan StanleyInstitutional Equity Desk	HOLD	$70	74%	A
Goldman SachsSector Coverage Lead	UNDERPERFORM	$106	69%	B
JP MorganUS Large-Cap Research	SELL	$60	58%	C

ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring SHAK)

✓Walkthrough of SHAK's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks

RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED

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SHAK // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -26.25%⚡ TESTING RESISTANCE

2026-11-02O $67.22H $70.51L $67.22C $70.48VOL 1.48M

RES: $72.01SUP: $56.14SMA50: $65.07SMA200: $74.75

PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

SHAK Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 SHAK Butterfly Map → + Track SHAK →

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)

41.8%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +15.4% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on SHAK today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for SHAK. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video

🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for SHAK today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →

DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (SHAK)

Consumer Discretionary Rank #569 of 1011 ⚔️ WING vs SHAK Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Consumer Discretionary Peer Comparison (SHAK vs. WING, CHA, CBRL, CAKE)

Industry: Restaurants (51 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1011 tracked Consumer Discretionary securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Shake Shack Inc. (SHAK) ranks #569 by composite RQD confidence (49/100, grade D) and #360 by equity capitalization ($3.02B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, CHA leads on earnings valuation at 13.7x trailing P/E, while CHA leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 85.0% ROIC and — gross margin. CHA currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 75/100 (B) compared with SHAK at 49/100 (D).

Ticker / Company	Roarable Grade	RQD Score	Trailing P/E	Gross Margin	ROIC	1D Change	Market Cap	Head-to-Head
SHAK ACTIVE Shake Shack Inc.	D	49/100	60.7x	—	6.8%	-0.04%	$3.02B	Benchmark Subject
WING Wingstop Inc.	C+	66/100	22.6x	—	45.0%	+2.99%	$3.93B	/wing-vs-shak →
CHA Chagee Holdings Limited	B	75/100	13.7x	—	85.0%	+0.25%	$2.29B	/cha-vs-shak →
CBRL Cracker Barrel Old Country Store Inc	B-	70/100	34.9x	69.0%	5.4%	-3.31%	$1.62B	/cbrl-vs-shak →
CAKE Cheesecake Factory Incorporated	B	72/100	38.0x	—	18.9%	-0.42%	$5.63B	/cake-vs-shak →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001620533

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Shake Shack Inc. (SHAK) reported GAAP revenue of $1.45B (+15.4% vs. FY2024 revenue of $1.25B , and +32.9% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $49.7M, operating cash flow of $222.4M, and free cash flow of $56.5M (+58.5% YoY). On the balance sheet, SHAK closed FY2025 with $1.90B in total assets against $604.1M in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 2.39, Piotroski F-Score: 9/9).

Fiscal Period	Filing Date	Revenue	Net Income	Operating Cash Flow	Free Cash Flow	Total Assets	Total Debt
FY2025 (FY)	2025-12-31	$1.45B	$49.7M	$222.4M	$56.5M	$1.90B	$604.1M
FY2024 (FY)	2024-12-25	$1.25B	$10.8M	$171.2M	$35.7M	$1.70B	$541.5M
FY2023 (FY)	2023-12-27	$1.09B	$21.0M	$132.1M	$83.2M	$1.66B	$388.4M

3. SHAK Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is SHAK stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

How does SHAK compare to WING and CHA in the Consumer Discretionary sector?

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for SHAK?

Where is SHAK trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

SHAK last traded at $70.48 (-0.04% on volume of 955,122 shares), positioning the stock +8.31% above its 50-day simple moving average ($65.07) and -5.71% below its 200-day simple moving average ($74.75). Across its 52-week range of $51.60 to $107.46, SHAK sits at the 33.8% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 60.2 (BULLISH MOMENTUM) and an implied next-earnings move of ±9.0% ($64.14 to $76.82).

SHAK Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index

100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FRED

What is SHAK's 12-month stock price target?

Shake Shack Inc. (SHAK) carries a 12-month consensus base price target of $67.63 (-4% from $70.48), with a bull-case target of $112.83 and a bear-case floor of $52.75.

Is SHAK stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now?

Roarable's 5-Pillar RQD Quant Engine rates SHAK D (Sell — SELL) with an RQD Confidence score of 49/100.

Direct Sub-Reports: SHAK RQD Cockpit SHAK 12M Forecast SHAK Earnings & Move SHAK Dividends & DRIP SHAK Insiders & 13F SHAK Whale Options SHAK Profit Sankey SHAK News & Why

ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 49/100 (D) ✓ STAGE-C NUMBER FIREWALL VERIFIED

SHAK — Shake Shack Inc.: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Engine: anthropic/claude-haiku-5.5

As of: 2026-11-02T15:24:23Z

Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

Per the Roarable RQD rating, SHAK scores 49 out of 100, a letter grade of D, with the verdict "Roarable Sell — Underperform / Distribution Warning." The five pillars are:

Fundamental Cash Engine: 11 / 20. Per the RQD rating, ROIC is 6.8% and FCF yield is 1.87%. For a prospective investor, these figures indicate modest returns on invested capital and a thin cash return relative to the share price.
Whale 13F Flow: 12 / 20. The RQD rating describes this pillar as institutional accumulation and options positioning. The source gives only the pillar score; no underlying 13F holdings or options data is provided.
Insider Conviction: 11 / 20. The RQD rating references SEC Form 4 and Congressional PTR cluster flow. No specific insider transactions are itemized in the source data.
Macro Regime Fit: 4 / 20. Per the RQD rating, beta is 0.87 and the pillar reflects sector sensitivity. This is the weakest pillar and suggests limited favorable alignment with the current macro regime as scored by the rating.
Forensic Balance Sheet: 11 / 20. Per the RQD rating, Altman Z is 2.39, Piotroski F is 9/9, and Debt/Equity is 1.07. A perfect Piotroski score is a positive signal; the Debt/Equity level and mid-range Altman Z indicate meaningful leverage and moderate financial-distress distance.

Investor implications: the upside case rests on the strong Piotroski reading and the recent price momentum shown in the news feed, while the valuation tradeoff is steep (P/E TTM of 60.7 against a forward P/E of 51 and EV/EBITDA of 15.8). The weak macro-regime pillar and low FCF yield mean the score-implied risk is concentrated in valuation compression and sensitivity to the restaurant-sector cycle rather than in solvency. This is educational analysis, not personalized advice.

Snapshot

Price	Market Cap	P/E (TTM)	Forward P/E	EV/EBITDA	EPS (TTM)	Dividend Yield	Beta	52-Wk Range	ROIC %
70.51	$3.02B	60.7	51	15.8	1.16	0%	0.87	$51.6 - $107.46	6.8%

Recent Catalysts & News Wire Analysis

Brazil expansion (MARKET WIRE, YELLOW): A headline reports SHAK up 9.4% after announcing a 40-unit Brazil expansion plan.
Brazil trial (MARKET WIRE, YELLOW): A Seeking Alpha piece titled "Shake Shack: Brazilian Trial By Fire" flags execution risk in the expansion.
Guggenheim price-target cut (RISK WATCH, RED): Investing.com reports Guggenheim cut its price target on lower EBITDA outlook. This is the only RED-flagged item.
Valuation commentary (MARKET WIRE, YELLOW): GuruFocus reports the stock up 3.5% and characterizes it as undervalued with a GF Score of 80/100.
Upside consensus (MARKET WIRE, YELLOW): A Yahoo Finance headline references a 32.34% predicted upside.
Revenue-outlook piece (CATALYST, GREEN): Simply Wall St asks whether revenue growth outlook changes the bull case.

The news feed is mixed: one RED risk item on EBITDA guidance and one GREEN catalyst, with the balance YELLOW. The proprietary Butterfly graph contains no supply-chain links or signals.

Open Questions

What is the magnitude and timing of the lower EBITDA outlook cited in the Guggenheim price-target cut?
What are the unit economics and capital requirements for the 40-unit Brazil expansion, and how does the "Brazilian Trial By Fire" risk show up in results?
What drove the increase in debt from $388.4M to $604.1M, and what are the repayment terms?
What are the specific 13F, Form 4, and options positioning behind the Whale and Insider pillar scores?
What explains the gap between FY 2025 operating income ($62.5M) and the FCF/EPS trajectory, given EPS is reported as N/A?

SHAK Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for Shake Shack Inc. (SHAK) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to SHAK Debate Forum (3) ↓

🟡 MARKET WIRE Yahoo Finance • 12h ago

Why Shake Shack (SHAK) Is Up 9.4% After Announcing 40-Unit Brazil Expansion Plan

Yahoo Finance report covering Shake Shack Inc. (SHAK) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE Seeking Alpha • 15h ago

Shake Shack: Brazilian Trial By Fire (NYSE:SHAK)

Seeking Alpha report covering Shake Shack Inc. (SHAK) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🔴 RISK WATCH Investing.com • 18h ago

Guggenheim cuts Shake Shack stock price target on lower EBITDA outlook

Investing.com report covering Shake Shack Inc. (SHAK) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE GuruFocus • 21h ago

Shake Shack Inc (SHAK) Stock Up 3.5% and Still Undervalued -- GF Score: 80/100

GuruFocus report covering Shake Shack Inc. (SHAK) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE Yahoo Finance • 1d ago

Wall Street Analysts Predict a 32.34% Upside in Shake Shack (SHAK): Here's What You Should Know

Yahoo Finance report covering Shake Shack Inc. (SHAK) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟢 CATALYST Simply Wall St • 1d ago

Does Revenue Growth Outlook Change The Bull Case For Shake Shack Stock (SHAK)?

Simply Wall St report covering Shake Shack Inc. (SHAK) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE MarketBeat • 1d ago

Wells Fargo & Company Issues Positive Forecast for Shake Shack (NYSE:SHAK) Stock Price

MarketBeat report covering Shake Shack Inc. (SHAK) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE GuruFocus • 1d ago

Shake Shack Inc (SHAK) Stock Down 4.0% -- Now Undervalued? GF Sc

GuruFocus report covering Shake Shack Inc. (SHAK) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

SHAK Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $70.48?

🐂 50% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON SHAK 🐻 50% BEARISH CONVICTION

RO RoarDesk_Moderator Roarable Research Desk ⚖️ DEBATE HOST 🎯 Target: $76.15 (+8.0%)

📌 Pinned Debate

🔥 Official Bull vs. Bear Debate: Is SHAK (D • RQD 49/100) a Buy at $70.51?

Welcome to the SHAK (Shake Shack Inc.) Roar Pit. Current RQD Composite is 49/100 (Roarable Sell — Underperform / Distribution Warning) in Restaurants. Bulls point to operating leverage and sector positioning, while bears focus on valuation multiple compression (60.7x trailing P/E). Pick your side (🐂 Bull or 🐻 Bear) and drop your price target below.

RI RiskArb_Desk Forensic Accounting Watch 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $57.82 (-18.0%)

Spot @ $70.51

Pump the brakes on SHAK — check the valuation vs. margin headwinds

Everyone in here is repeating the bull case on SHAK, but look at what you are paying: 60.7x trailing P/E with tightening sector spreads. Unless Shake Shack Inc. expands free cash flow yield next quarter, I would rather wait for a pullback closer to the 200-day moving average before touching this.

MI MidwestValue Verified K Arena Trader 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $81.79 (+16.0%)

Spot @ $70.51

SHAK cash flow & RQD setup is being underpriced by the Street here

Looking at the 5-pillar RQD breakdown on SHAK, the market is fixating on short-term headline noise in Restaurants and ignoring the balance sheet and cash flow trajectory. At $70.51 (52-wk range $51.60 - $107.46), any beat on forward guidance forces shorts and underweight funds to chase.