Should I buy, hold, or sell SF stock right now?

Stifel Financial Corporation (SF) currently earns a Roarable Rating of D+ (Sell — SELL) with 56/100 RQD Confidence. Stretched risk/reward at 16x P/E (3% return on capital) under elevated 10-year interest-rate pressure.

What is SF's 12-month price target and RQD AI Jury consensus?

SF's 12-month base price target is $68.05 (range $53.08 to $94.32), backed by transparent SEC XBRL cash-flow, Form 4 insider, and CBOE options flow analysis.

Stock Ratings / Financials / SF

JEF (58) FRHC (50) VIRT (56) SEIC (70) ⌘ Pro Terminal →

Stifel Financial Corporation (SF) — RQD Stock Rating Cockpit

$68.67 +2.97% NYSE • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $68.91

Stifel Financial Corporation (SF) carries a Roarable Rating of D+ (Sell) with 56/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

ROARABLE D+ • SELL / AVOID Cap $10.07B

📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card

⚡ INSTANT AI QUANT PREVIEW • $0 FREE TIER Click Any Pre-Computed AI Quant Specialist Briefing on SF Below — or Connect Your Own ChatGPT / Claude

🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is SF stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

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As of 2026-11-03, Stifel Financial Corporation (NYSE: SF) is rated D+ (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 56/100 at a spot price of $68.67 (+2.97% 1D, market cap $10.07B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 13/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 5/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 15/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 6/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 17/20. Across 1097 tracked Financials issuers, SF ranks #501 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does SF compare to JEF and FRHC in the Financials sector?

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Within the Financials sector (Investment Bankers/Brokers/Service), SF carries a Roarable D+ (56/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 16.0x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 3.4%. By comparison, JEF (Jefferies Financial Group Inc.) holds a D+ grade (58/100 RQD, P/E 7.9x, ROIC 6.0%, cap $10.59B) and FRHC (Freedom Holding Corp.) posts a D grade (50/100 RQD, P/E 76.4x, ROIC 11.0%, cap $11.93B). Among the 5-stock peer group, JEF leads on earnings multiple (7.9x) while SEIC leads on capital efficiency (24.2% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for SF?

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Per SF's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0000720672), Stifel Financial Corporation generated $3.77B in revenue (+14.5% YoY), $646.5M in net income, and $947.3M in free cash flow against $41.27B in total assets and $15.88B in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction. Primary risk factors monitored: Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).

INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:

🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray

EXT / AFTER-HRS: $68.90 (+0.34%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-2.64% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 13/20 (C) • 25.1% FCF Margin

Verify 90D Bucket Audit →

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 56/100 (D+) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (-0.4% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 51.8% hit rate — wait for RQD ≥ 70 breakout).

Audit Bucket Track Record →

RQD QUANT TACHOMETERSELL / AVOID • D+

JEV AI Jury Split (Battleground)

Cash

SEC

Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw D+ · Rk D+

Each axis scored 0–20

12M PRICE TARGET CONE-0.9% Base Target

WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for SF)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±5.3%

Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (56/100 Composite)

🔍 WHY SF SCORES 56/100 (D+) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag

▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution+17/20 pts (30% of score)

SEC Form 4 / 13F Thermometer: 85% Net Buy • Cannibal Buyback (-2.64% YoY Shares)

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+15/20 pts (27% of score)

Altman Z-Score 3.80 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) • Piotroski F-Score 7/9

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Whale & Options Positioning5/20 pts (-15 pt drag)

Put hedging (50% put share) caps near-term gamma upside (-15 pts vs max)

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current

Q1 (-3Q)

Grade D$67.80-2.1% Next Q

Q2 (-2Q)

Grade C-$66.41+0.7% Next Q

Q3 (-1Q)

Grade C-$66.88+2.7% Next Q

Current

Grade D+$68.67-0.4% Hist 90D α

Trajectory: D (48) → D+ (56)Full Audit →

⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the SF Bull Thesis Could Fail

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

Even with a 56/100 (D+) score, SF faces multiple-compression risk if 16.0x trailing P/E re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1

Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2

Dilution & Margin Drag: Cannibal Buyback (-2.64% YoY Shares) — any gross margin slip below 49.5% triggers an automatic RQD downgrade.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3

Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($72.56) or 200D SMA ($75.91) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($68.05) toward Bear Floor ($53.08).

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $SF• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite

Contract: “SF Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”

YES 56%NO 44%Trade / Inspect Odds →

RSI-14 MOMENTUMNEUTRAL RANGE

4030 Oversold · 70 Hot

ALTMAN-Z SHIELDFORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)

3.80>3.0 Fortress Safe

PIOTROSKI F-SCOREHIGH QUALITY (7–9)

7 / 99-Pt Accounting

52-WEEK LASER RANGE13% OF RANGE

L: $65$68.67H: $90

1. Money & Cash Health● MIXED

Are profits real cash in the bank?

Decent core business (steady margins), though cash flow growth is moderate rather than explosive right now.

Factor Grade: CRQD 13 / 20

2. Big Money & Insiders● NEUTRAL

Are whales & executives buying or selling?

Big funds and company insiders are mostly holding steady without aggressive buying or panic selling.

Factor Grade: D+RQD 22 / 40

3. Hidden Risks & Market Weather● WARNING

SEC fine-print scan & interest-rate fit

High sensitivity to tight interest rates or new risk warnings added to recent SEC annual filings.

Factor Grade: D+RQD 21 / 40

MULTI-MODEL JEV QUANT JURY DELIBERATION

JEV AI Jury Split (Battleground) on SF

Cash & Moat Bull AI

ROIC & Free Cash Flow Model

NEUTRAL (65)

3.4% ROIC with 42.0% gross margin and 9.18% FCF yield.

SEC Forensic Auditor AI

10-K Accruals & Altman-Z Guard

BULLISH (75)

Altman-Z 4.20 and Piotroski 7/9 pass balance-sheet audit.

Whale & Macro Hawk AI

Options Skew, 13F & Fed NetLiq

BEARISH (47)

22/40 institutional & smart-money positioning score with 6/20 macro alignment.

Bull Case: Why Buyers Like SF

✓Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction.
✓Clean SEC annual filing review with no major hidden accounting time-bombs.

Bear Case: What Could Go Wrong

!Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity.

ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring SF)

✓Walkthrough of SF's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks

RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED

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Join Founding VIP Waitlist (No Card Required) →$100K Arena

SF // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -10.07%📐 HORIZONTAL RANGE

2026-11-03O $68.36H $68.67L $66.69C $68.67VOL 1.42M

RES: $92.03SUP: $65.16SMA50: $72.56SMA200: $75.91

PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

SF Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 SF Butterfly Map → + Track SF →

Share Count & Dilution Monitor

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle

8.6%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +14.5% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on SF today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for SF. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video

🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for SF today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →

DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (SF)

Financials Rank #501 of 1097 ⚔️ JEF vs SF Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Financials Peer Comparison (SF vs. JEF, FRHC, VIRT, SEIC)

Industry: Investment Bankers/Brokers/Service (64 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1097 tracked Financials securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Stifel Financial Corporation (SF) ranks #501 by composite RQD confidence (56/100, grade D+) and #185 by equity capitalization ($10.07B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, JEF leads on earnings valuation at 7.9x trailing P/E, while SEIC leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 24.2% ROIC and — gross margin. SEIC currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 70/100 (B-) compared with SF at 56/100 (D+).

Ticker / Company	Roarable Grade	RQD Score	Trailing P/E	Gross Margin	ROIC	1D Change	Market Cap	Head-to-Head
SF ACTIVE Stifel Financial Corporation	D+	56/100	16.0x	—	3.4%	+2.97%	$10.07B	Benchmark Subject
JEF Jefferies Financial Group Inc.	D+	58/100	7.9x	—	6.0%	+4.66%	$10.59B	/jef-vs-sf →
FRHC Freedom Holding Corp.	D	50/100	76.4x	—	11.0%	+0.16%	$11.93B	/frhc-vs-sf →
VIRT Virtu Financial Inc.	D+	56/100	—	—	0.0%	-0.15%	$8.34B	/virt-vs-sf →
SEIC SEI Investments Company	B-	70/100	17.4x	—	24.2%	+2.39%	$12.26B	/seic-vs-sf →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0000720672 ↗

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Stifel Financial Corporation (SF) reported GAAP revenue of $3.77B (+14.5% vs. FY2024 revenue of $3.29B , and +39.2% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $646.5M, operating cash flow of $1.12B, and free cash flow of $947.3M (+176.8% YoY). On the balance sheet, SF closed FY2025 with $41.27B in total assets against $15.88B in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 7/9).

Fiscal Period	Filing Date	Revenue	Net Income	Operating Cash Flow	Free Cash Flow	Total Assets	Total Debt
FY2025 (FY)	2025-12-31	$3.77B	$646.5M	$1.12B	$947.3M	$41.27B	$15.88B
FY2024 (FY)	2024-12-31	$3.29B	$694.1M	$490.4M	$342.2M	$39.90B	$15.39B
FY2023 (FY)	2023-12-31	$2.71B	$485.3M	$499.3M	$377.4M	$5.68B	$1.33B

3. SF Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is SF stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

How does SF compare to JEF and FRHC in the Financials sector?

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for SF?

Where is SF trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

SF last traded at $68.67 (+2.97% on volume of 1,298,502 shares), positioning the stock -5.36% below its 50-day simple moving average ($72.56) and -9.54% below its 200-day simple moving average ($75.91). Across its 52-week range of $65.40 to $89.83, SF sits at the 13.4% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 40.0 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±5.3% ($65.03 to $72.31).

Direct Sub-Reports: SF RQD Cockpit SF 12M Forecast SF Earnings & Move SF Dividends & DRIP SF Insiders & 13F SF Whale Options SF Profit Sankey SF News & Why

ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 56/100 (D+) ✓ SEC XBRL & RQD VERIFIED

SF — Stifel Financial Corporation: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Methodology: RQD v6.2 Deterministic 5-Pillar & SEC XBRL Audit

Updated: 2025-12-31

1. Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

Stifel Financial Corporation (SF) earns a live Roarable RQD composite score of 56/100, corresponding to a D+ letter grade (Roarable Sell) at a spot price of $68.67 (+2.97% 1D, market capitalization $10.07B).

Fundamental Cash Engine (13/20): Anchored by return on invested capital (ROIC) of 3.4%, gross margin of —, operating margin of 20.9%, and free cash flow yield of 9.18%.
Whale 13F & Options Flow (5/20) + Insider Conviction (17/20): Tracks institutional 13F accumulation, CBOE options call/put positioning, and SEC Form 4 / Congressional PTR filings.
Macro Regime Fit (6/20) + Forensic Balance Sheet (15/20): Incorporates a 1.05x equity beta, Altman Z-Score of N/A, Piotroski F-Score of 7/9, and Debt/Equity of N/A.

2. Business Model, Unit Margins & SEC Financial Trajectory

Stifel Financial Corporation is a NYSE-listed issuer classified in the Financials sector and the Investment Bankers/Brokers/Service industry,. Revenue model details, customer base, and specific product lines are — The source data confirms a market capitalization of $10.3B.

In its latest audited SEC EDGAR 10-K filing for FY2025 (filed 2025-12-31), Stifel Financial Corporation (SF) reported $3.77B in annual revenue (up from $3.29B in FY2024, +14.5% YoY) and $646.5M in GAAP net income. Over the multi-year SEC filing window from FY2023 ($2.71B revenue, $485.3M net income) through FY2025, SF scaled operating cash flow to $1.12B and free cash flow to $947.3M, backed by $41.27B in total assets against $15.88B in total debt.

3. Institutional Bull vs. Bear Thesis & Valuation Tradeoff

🐂 Primary Bull Case (D+ • RQD 56/100): Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction. Clean SEC annual filing review with no major hidden accounting time-bombs. With Fundamental Cash Engine at 13/20 and Institutional Whale Flow at 5/20, sustained execution supports upside toward the upper end of the $65.40 – $89.83 52-week range.
🐻 Primary Bear Case & Valuation Risk: Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity. Investors must weigh 16.0x trailing P/E and 24.5x EV/EBITDA against 20.9% operating margins and a 1.05x macro beta.

4. 2nd-Order Butterfly Ripples & Key Questions to Watch

There are no upstream or downstream links and no proprietary signals recorded. Upstream dependencies, downstream customers, and sector correlations are — Investors should therefore treat second-order ripple effects as unmapped in this dossier.

Key Question #1: Can SF sustain or expand its 20.9% operating margin and 3.4% ROIC against Investment Bankers/Brokers/Service peers over the next 4 quarters?
Key Question #2: Following FY2025 revenue of $3.77B and free cash flow of $947.3M, how will capital allocation balance growth reinvestment against $15.88B in total debt?
Key Question #3: How sensitive is SF's 13.4x forward P/E multiple to Financials capital spending cycles and macro interest-rate shifts (Beta 1.05x)?

SF Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for Stifel Financial Corporation (SF) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to SF Debate Forum (3) ↓

🟡 MARKET WIRE Yahoo Finance • 22h ago

Stifel Financial Corporation (SF) Stock Forecasts

Yahoo Finance report covering Stifel Financial Corporation (SF) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🔴 RISK WATCH TradingView • 1d ago

Stifel Financial Corporation Stock 12‑Month Price Target Cut to $84.43, Implies 26% Upside

TradingView report covering Stifel Financial Corporation (SF) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE MarketBeat • 1d ago

Stifel Financial (SF) Stock Price, News & Analysis $SF

MarketBeat report covering Stifel Financial Corporation (SF) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE MarketBeat • 1d ago

Stifel Financial Corporation (NYSE:SF) Stock Has Average Price Target of $85.71 According to Analysts

MarketBeat report covering Stifel Financial Corporation (SF) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE https://www.dars.gov.et/ • 1d ago

Stifel Financial (SF) Edges Lower to $70.28, Holding Firmly Between Key Technical Levels - Trend Following Picks

https://www.dars.gov.et/ report covering Stifel Financial Corporation (SF) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE MarketBeat • 1d ago

199,915 Shares in Stifel Financial Corporation $SF Acquired by Argent Capital Management LLC

MarketBeat report covering Stifel Financial Corporation (SF) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE MarketBeat • 1d ago

25,392 Stifel Financial Corporation $SF Shares Bought by Vest Financial LLC

MarketBeat report covering Stifel Financial Corporation (SF) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE Yahoo • 23h ago

Stifel Expands Leadership in Capital Solutions with Three Senior Hires

Adam Steinberg, Mickey Brunton, and Gavin Kolt Strengthen Capital Structure Advisory, GP-Led Secondaries, and Private Capital Markets CapabilitiesST. LOUIS, Nov. 02, 2026 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- Stifel Financial Corp. (NYSE:

Read Full Source ↗

🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

SF Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $68.67?

🐂 67% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON SF 🐻 33% BEARISH CONVICTION

MA MacroHawk_NYC RQD DEBATE OPENER • Cross-Asset Macro Desk 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $80.69 (+21.0%)

📌 Pinned Debate

Insider conviction scores 17/20 and the stock trades at a forward P/E of 13.4 versus a trailing 16, implying expected earnings growth.

Insider conviction scores 17/20 and the stock trades at a forward P/E of 13.4 versus a trailing 16, implying expected earnings growth.. When you look under the hood at SF, Fundamental Cash Engine is 13/20 with 0.0% gross margins and 3.4% ROIC. Bears are staring in the rearview mirror while institutional 13F flow (5/20) has been quietly accumulating below $89.83. My 12M target is $80.69.

RetailWhale_TX 🐂 BULL

Both sides have a point here — SF's 15/20 balance sheet score keeps downside contained, so the real swing factor next earnings call is backlog and FCF conversion.

SH ShortSeller_Dan RQD DEBATE OPENER • Forensic Short Bias 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $57.35 (-14.0%)

Spot @ $66.69

A 12-month price target cut to $84.43 (flagged RED) and an ROIC of only 3.4% undercut the cash-flow story.

Fading this rally in SF at $66.69. A 12-month price target cut to $84.43 (flagged RED) and an ROIC of only 3.4% undercut the cash-flow story.. With a beta of 1.05 and the stock sitting at $66.69 (52-wk range $65.40–$89.83), the easy multiple expansion is already priced in.