Septerna Inc. (SEPN) Next Earnings Date & Expected ±12.5% Move

$44.00 -2.72% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $43.70

Septerna Inc. (SEPN) carries a Roarable Rating of C (Hold) with 63/100 RQD Confidence. The composite score sits in the neutral Hold band (59–69), meaning current holders don’t need to panic-sell while prospective buyers can wait for a move into the 70+ Buy zone.

ROARABLE C • HOLD / WATCH Cap $2.05B
📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card
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🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is SEPN stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
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As of 2026-11-03, Septerna Inc. (NASDAQ: SEPN) is rated C (Hold / HOLD) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 63/100 at a spot price of $44.00 (-2.72% 1D, market cap $2.05B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 13/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 16/20, Executive Insider Alignment 14/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 12/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 8/20. Across 1016 tracked Health Care issuers, SEPN ranks #140 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does SEPN compare to SDGR and MRVI in the Health Care sector?
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Within the Health Care sector (Biotechnology: Pharmaceutical Preparations), SEPN carries a Roarable C (63/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of —, and ROIC of -20.7%. By comparison, SDGR (Schrodinger Inc.) holds a D+ grade (53/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -35.0%, cap $2.03B) and MRVI (Maravai LifeSciences Holdings Inc. (Class A)) posts a D- grade (37/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -35.0%, cap $2.03B). Among the 5-stock peer group, SEPN leads on earnings multiple (N/A) while SEPN leads on capital efficiency (-20.7% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for SEPN?
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Per SEPN's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001984086), Septerna Inc. generated $46.0M in revenue (+4174.5% YoY), -$48.9M in net income, and $109.7M in free cash flow against $596.2M in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Big institutional funds and options desks are actively positioning on the bullish side.. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $43.70 (-0.68%)🧬 Disciplined Float (-0.12% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 13/20 (C) • 238.7% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →
📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 63/100 (C) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (+0.9% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 54.8% hit rate — wait for RQD ≥ 70 breakout).
Audit Bucket Track Record →
RQD QUANT TACHOMETERHOLD / WATCH • C
025507510063
JEV AI Jury Split (Battleground)
Cash
SEC
Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw C · Rk C
Cash (13)Whales (16)SEC (14)Macro (12)CEO (8)
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE+2.3% Base Target
$54 Bull$45 Base$35 Bear
📬 FREE SEPN RATING-CHANGE & BRIEFING ALERTSManage / Unsubscribe
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for SEPN)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±12.5%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (63/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY SEPN SCORES 63/100 (C) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Whale & Options Positioning+16/20 pts (25% of score)

20D Institutional Volume Accumulation (±12.5% realized swing band)

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+14/20 pts (22% of score)

Altman Z-Score 5.87 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) • Piotroski F-Score 6/9

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution8/20 pts (-12 pt drag)

Disciplined Float (-0.12% YoY Shares) & executive Form 4 sales trim 12 pts from alignment

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)
55
Grade C$36.42+8% Next Q
Q2 (-2Q)
58
Grade C$39.35+12.2% Next Q
Q3 (-1Q)
60
Grade C$44.14-0.3% Next Q
Current
63
Grade C$44.00+0.9% Hist 90D α
Trajectory: C (55) → C (63)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the SEPN Bull Thesis Could Fail

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

Even with a 63/100 (C) score, SEPN faces multiple-compression risk if current valuation multiples re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1

Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2

Dilution & Margin Drag: Disciplined Float (-0.12% YoY Shares) — any gross margin slip below 49.5% triggers an automatic RQD downgrade.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3

Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($39.13) or 200D SMA ($32.26) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($44.99) toward Bear Floor ($35.09).

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $SEPN• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “SEPN Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
NEXT EST. WINDOW: Dec 30, 2026 (~57 DAYS)

Historical OHLCV Volatility ±12.5% Swing Band

±$5.50 Expected Swing
$38.50 (-12.5%)Spot $44.00$49.50 (+12.5%)
MODEL EARNINGS SETUP GAUGE

SEPN Quantitative Pre-Earnings Setup: 63/100

Trailing EPS: $4.25 • YoY Revenue Growth: 180%

Model Bullish Setup (63/100)Model Risk Weight (37/100)
Derived deterministically from RQD cash-flow quality, SEC accrual safety, and institutional flow (not a community poll).
LOG YOUR PERSONAL PRE-EARNINGS STANCE (SAVED LOCALLY IN BROWSER):

Recent SEC Reported Revenue, Net Profit & Diluted EPS Cadence

PeriodFiledRevenueNet ProfitFree Cash FlowGross Margin
FY 20252025-12-31$46.0M-$48.9M$109.7M52%
FY 20242024-12-31$1.1M-$71.8M-$69.6M52%
FY 20232023-12-31$151.0K$4.2M-$38.7M52%
ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher + Options & Swing Structure Desk

Whale Flow & Momentum Playbook: Evaluating SEPN & AI Leaders Without Chasing Tops

  • ✓Institutional whale strikes & implied earnings move audit on SEPN
  • ✓How disciplined traders manage risk using pre-published trigger & invalidation levels
  • ✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on tracked leaders
RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED
Want Custom AI PineScript / Python Indicators & Priority Rating-Change Alerts?
SEPN // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +77.28%⚡ TESTING RESISTANCE
2026-11-03O $45.23H $45.23L $44.00C $44.00VOL 223.5K
RES: $45.30SUP: $33.47SMA50: $39.13SMA200: $32.26
$53.14$44.70$36.26$27.83$19.39RES $45.30SUP $33.47$44.002026-05-042026-06-172026-08-042026-09-182026-11-03
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

SEPN Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)
8.0%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +180.0% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on SEPN today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for SEPN. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for SEPN today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (SEPN)

Health Care Rank #140 of 1016 ⚔️ SDGR vs SEPN Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Health Care Peer Comparison (SEPN vs. SDGR, MRVI, ZYME, PVLA)

Industry: Biotechnology: Pharmaceutical Preparations (489 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1016 tracked Health Care securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Septerna Inc. (SEPN) ranks #140 by composite RQD confidence (63/100, grade C) and #251 by equity capitalization ($2.05B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, SEPN leads on earnings valuation at N/A trailing P/E, while SEPN leads on capital efficiency and profitability with -20.7% ROIC and — gross margin. SEPN currently leads its immediate peer cohort in composite quantitative strength at 63/100 (C).

Ticker / Company Roarable Grade RQD Score Trailing P/E Gross Margin ROIC 1D Change Market Cap Head-to-Head
SEPN ACTIVE
Septerna Inc.
C 63/100 — — -20.7% -2.72% $2.05B Benchmark Subject
SDGR
Schrodinger Inc.
D+ 53/100 — 55.7% -35.0% -9.50% $2.03B /sdgr-vs-sepn →
MRVI
Maravai LifeSciences Holdings Inc. (Class A)
D- 37/100 — 18.3% -35.0% -7.68% $2.03B /mrvi-vs-sepn →
ZYME
Zymeworks Inc.
D 50/100 — — -32.2% -0.35% $2.02B /zyme-vs-sepn →
PVLA
Palvella Therapeutics Inc.
D 45/100 — — -27.9% -3.58% $2.11B /pvla-vs-sepn →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001984086

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Septerna Inc. (SEPN) reported GAAP revenue of $46.0M (+4174.5% vs. FY2024 revenue of $1.1M , and +30331.1% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of -$48.9M, operating cash flow of $110.2M, and free cash flow of $109.7M (+257.6% YoY). On the balance sheet, SEPN closed FY2025 with $596.2M in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 5.87, Piotroski F-Score: 6/9).

Fiscal Period Filing Date Revenue Net Income Operating Cash Flow Free Cash Flow Total Assets Total Debt
FY2025 (FY) 2025-12-31 $46.0M -$48.9M $110.2M $109.7M $596.2M —
FY2024 (FY) 2024-12-31 $1.1M -$71.8M -$67.5M -$69.6M $456.6M —
FY2023 (FY) 2023-12-31 $151.0K $4.2M -$38.7M -$38.7M — —

3. SEPN Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is SEPN stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-03, Septerna Inc. (NASDAQ: SEPN) is rated C (Hold / HOLD) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 63/100 at a spot price of $44.00 (-2.72% 1D, market cap $2.05B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 13/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 16/20, Executive Insider Alignment 14/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 12/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 8/20. Across 1016 tracked Health Care issuers, SEPN ranks #140 in composite RQD confidence.

How does SEPN compare to SDGR and MRVI in the Health Care sector?

Within the Health Care sector (Biotechnology: Pharmaceutical Preparations), SEPN carries a Roarable C (63/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of —, and ROIC of -20.7%. By comparison, SDGR (Schrodinger Inc.) holds a D+ grade (53/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -35.0%, cap $2.03B) and MRVI (Maravai LifeSciences Holdings Inc. (Class A)) posts a D- grade (37/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -35.0%, cap $2.03B). Among the 5-stock peer group, SEPN leads on earnings multiple (N/A) while SEPN leads on capital efficiency (-20.7% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for SEPN?

Per SEPN's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001984086), Septerna Inc. generated $46.0M in revenue (+4174.5% YoY), -$48.9M in net income, and $109.7M in free cash flow against $596.2M in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Big institutional funds and options desks are actively positioning on the bullish side.. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is SEPN trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

SEPN last traded at $44.00 (-2.72% on volume of 223,464 shares), positioning the stock +12.45% above its 50-day simple moving average ($39.13) and +36.39% above its 200-day simple moving average ($32.26). Across its 52-week range of $17.55 to $51.10, SEPN sits at the 78.8% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 62.4 (BULLISH MOMENTUM) and an implied next-earnings move of ±12.5% ($38.50 to $49.50).

SEPN Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index

100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FRED

When is SEPN's next earnings date?

Based on SEC filing cadence, Septerna Inc. (SEPN)'s next quarterly reporting window is estimated around Dec 30, 2026.

How much is SEPN stock expected to move on earnings?

Volatility modeling currently projects a ±12.5% event move for SEPN, spanning a range between $38.5 and $49.5.

ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 63/100 (C) ✓ STAGE-C NUMBER FIREWALL VERIFIED

SEPN — Septerna Inc.: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Engine: anthropic/claude-haiku-5.5
As of: 2026-11-02T15:26:41Z

Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

Per the Roarable RQD rating, SEPN scores 63 out of 100, grade C, labeled "Roarable Hold — Fair / Balanced Risk-Reward." The five pillars are:

  • Fundamental Cash Engine (13/20): Reflects ROIC of -20.7% and an FCF yield of 5.19%. For a prospective investor, the negative ROIC signals that invested capital is not currently earning a return, while the positive FCF yield indicates the cash-generation picture is less negative than the earnings picture.
  • Whale 13F Flow (16/20): Reflects institutional accumulation and options positioning. This is the strongest pillar, suggesting larger holders are building exposure, though the source data does not itemize the holdings.
  • Insider Conviction (8/20): Reflects SEC Form 4 and Congressional PTR cluster flow. This is the weakest pillar and is the area where the source data gives the least supportive signal.
  • Macro Regime Fit (12/20): Reflects beta of 1.0 and sector sensitivity. A beta of 1.0 implies market-level sensitivity to broad moves rather than amplified volatility.
  • Forensic Balance Sheet (14/20): Reflects Altman Z-Score of 5.87, Piotroski F-Score of 6/9, and Debt/Equity of 0.5. These are the most supportive metrics in the rating and point to a balance sheet that the rating treats as relatively sound.

Taken together, the upside drivers are the institutional flow and balance-sheet strength; the valuation and profitability tradeoffs are negative ROIC and operating losses; and the insider pillar is a neutral-to-negative reading. The rating's "Hold" verdict reflects this balance rather than a directional call.

Business

Septerna Inc. is a NASDAQ-listed issuer in the Health Care sector, operating in the Biotechnology: Pharmaceutical Preparations industry, per the company profile. The source data does not describe its products, customers, or revenue model. The profile identifies a market capitalization of $2.1B. Per the SEC financials, FY 2025 revenue was $46.0M, indicating the company has reported revenue, though the source data does not explain its source.

Financial Trend

PeriodRevenueOperating IncomeNet IncomeEPSFCFCashDebt
FY 2025$46.0M$-68.3M$-48.9MN/A$109.7M$120.7MN/A
FY 2024$1.1M$-80.8M$-71.8MN/A$-69.6M$238.2MN/A
FY 2023$0.2M$2.1M$4.2MN/A$-38.7MN/AN/A

Per the SEC financials, revenue grew from $0.2M in FY 2023 to $1.1M in FY 2024 and $46.0M in FY 2025, while operating losses were $-80.8M in FY 2024 and $-68.3M in FY 2025. Per the market data, the operating margin and net margin are both -60%, the gross margin is 0%, and ROIC is -20.7%. The Piotroski F-Score is 6/9 and the Altman Z-Score is 5.87, which the rating treats as supportive of balance-sheet resilience. Debt/Equity is 0.5. Cash was $120.7M at FY 2025 versus $238.2M at FY 2024.

Recent Catalysts & News Wire Analysis

Per the recent catalysts section, four items reference SEPN:

  • A Yahoo Finance report on institutional positioning and fundamental catalysts (YELLOW, MARKET WIRE).
  • An Investing.com UK report noting that the president and COO sold $149,644 in stock (YELLOW, MARKET WIRE).
  • A Milk Road report on market action (YELLOW, MARKET WIRE).
  • A TipRanks headline, "3 Small-Cap Stocks Analysts Expect to Rally over 35%" (GREEN, CATALYST).

Risk watch: the executive stock sale is the most concrete insider item in the news wire. The Butterfly Supply-Chain Graph contains no proprietary signals for SEPN.

Butterfly Effect: 2nd-Order Supply-Chain & Sector Ripples

Per the Butterfly Supply-Chain Graph, the supply chain is recorded as NONE, with no butterfly links and no proprietary signals. The source data therefore does not establish upstream or downstream dependencies, sector correlations, or second-order bottlenecks for SEPN. The sector and industry classification (Health Care; Biotechnology: Pharmaceutical Preparations) is the only contextual link available.

Open Questions

  • What products or pipeline assets generate the FY 2025 revenue of $46.0M, and what is its customer base?
  • Source of FY 2025 positive free cash flow of $109.7M against an operating loss of $-68.3M: is it recurring or one-time?
  • What are the P/E, EV/EBITDA, and EPS values, which the source data does not provide despite net losses?
  • Who are the institutional holders driving the Whale 13F Flow pillar score, and what is their position size?
  • What is the context of the president and COO's $149,644 stock sale and whether other insiders are trading in the same direction?

SEPN Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for Septerna Inc. (SEPN) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to SEPN Debate Forum (3) ↓
🟡 MARKET WIRE Milk Road • 22h ago
Septerna, Inc. (SEPN)

Milk Road report covering Septerna Inc. (SEPN) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗
🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

SEPN Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $44.00?

🐂 50% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON SEPN 🐻 50% BEARISH CONVICTION
1. Pick Your Side on SEPN:
💡 Tip: Back up your call with a price target or RQD metric to get upvoted to the top.
RO RoarDesk_Moderator Roarable Research Desk ⚖️ DEBATE HOST 🎯 Target: $48.85 (+8.0%)
📌 Pinned Debate

🔥 Official Bull vs. Bear Debate: Is SEPN (C • RQD 63/100) a Buy at $45.23?

Welcome to the SEPN (Septerna Inc.) Roar Pit. Current RQD Composite is 63/100 (Roarable Hold — Fair / Balanced Risk-Reward) in Biotechnology: Pharmaceutical Preparations. Bulls point to operating leverage and sector positioning, while bears focus on macro rate sensitivity and margin execution. Pick your side (🐂 Bull or 🐻 Bear) and drop your price target below.

RE RedlineAuditor Forensic Accounting Watch 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $34.83 (-23.0%)
Spot @ $45.23

Pump the brakes on SEPN — check the valuation vs. margin headwinds

Everyone in here is repeating the bull case on SEPN, but look at what you are paying: current EV/EBITDA multiples with tightening sector spreads. Unless Septerna Inc. expands free cash flow yield next quarter, I would rather wait for a pullback closer to the 200-day moving average before touching this.

QU QuantViper Verified K Arena Trader 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $56.99 (+26.0%)
Spot @ $45.23

SEPN cash flow & RQD setup is being underpriced by the Street here

Looking at the 5-pillar RQD breakdown on SEPN, the market is fixating on short-term headline noise in Biotechnology: Pharmaceutical Preparations and ignoring the balance sheet and cash flow trajectory. At $45.23 (52-wk range $17.55 - $51.10), any beat on forward guidance forces shorts and underweight funds to chase.

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