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Ryan Specialty Holdings Inc. (RYAN) — RQD Stock Rating Cockpit

$45.48 +3.74% NYSE • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $45.70

Ryan Specialty Holdings Inc. (RYAN) carries a Roarable Rating of C+ (Hold) with 68/100 RQD Confidence. The composite score sits in the neutral Hold band (59–69), meaning current holders don’t need to panic-sell while prospective buyers can wait for a move into the 70+ Buy zone.

ROARABLE C+ • HOLD / WATCH Cap $11.21B
📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card
⚡ INSTANT AI QUANT PREVIEW • $0 FREE TIER Click Any Pre-Computed AI Quant Specialist Briefing on RYAN Below — or Connect Your Own ChatGPT / Claude
🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is RYAN stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
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As of 2026-11-03, Ryan Specialty Holdings Inc. (NYSE: RYAN) is rated C+ (Hold / HOLD) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 68/100 at a spot price of $45.48 (+3.74% 1D, market cap $11.21B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 15/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 15/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 13/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 13/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 12/20. Across 1097 tracked Financials issuers, RYAN ranks #148 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does RYAN compare to FNF and ERIE in the Financials sector?
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Within the Financials sector (Specialty Insurers), RYAN carries a Roarable C+ (68/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 10.3%. By comparison, FNF (Fidelity National Financial Inc.) holds a C- grade (59/100 RQD, P/E 17.9x, ROIC 1.2%, cap $10.86B) and ERIE (Erie Indemnity Company) posts a B+ grade (76/100 RQD, P/E 20.7x, ROIC 24.3%, cap $12.07B). Among the 5-stock peer group, FAF leads on earnings multiple (10.5x) while ERIE leads on capital efficiency (24.3% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for RYAN?
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Per RYAN's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001849253), Ryan Specialty Holdings Inc. generated $2.99B in revenue (+21.9% YoY), $63.4M in net income, and $508.9M in free cash flow against $10.56B in total assets and $3.29B in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Strong cash generator (steady margins)—profits are backed by real money, not accounting tricks. Primary risk factors monitored: Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $45.70 (+0.48%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-1.24% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 15/20 (B) • 17% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →
📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 68/100 (C+) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (+1.8% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 56.9% hit rate — wait for RQD ≥ 70 breakout).
Audit Bucket Track Record →
RQD QUANT TACHOMETERHOLD / WATCH • C+
025507510068
2-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bullish
Cash
SEC
Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw B- · Rk C
Cash (15)Whales (15)SEC (13)Macro (13)CEO (12)
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE+4.5% Base Target
$62 Bull$48 Base$37 Bear
📬 FREE RYAN RATING-CHANGE & BRIEFING ALERTSManage / Unsubscribe
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for RYAN)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±6.5%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (68/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY RYAN SCORES 68/100 (C+) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Cash Engine Quality+15/20 pts (22% of score)

SEC XBRL FY 2025 (10-K): 17% FCF Margin ($508.9M FCF) & 52% Gross Margin

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Whale & Options Positioning+15/20 pts (22% of score)

20D Institutional Volume Accumulation (±6.5% realized swing band)

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution12/20 pts (-8 pt drag)

Cannibal Buyback (-1.24% YoY Shares) & executive Form 4 sales trim 8 pts from alignment

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)
60
Grade C$38.00+11.2% Next Q
Q2 (-2Q)
63
Grade C+$42.26+0.9% Next Q
Q3 (-1Q)
65
Grade C+$42.62+6.7% Next Q
Current
68
Grade C+$45.48+1.8% Hist 90D α
Trajectory: C (60) → C+ (68)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the RYAN Bull Thesis Could Fail

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

Even with a 68/100 (C+) score, RYAN faces multiple-compression risk if current valuation multiples re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1

Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2

Dilution & Margin Drag: Cannibal Buyback (-1.24% YoY Shares) — any gross margin slip below 49.5% triggers an automatic RQD downgrade.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3

Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($40.41) or 200D SMA ($38.85) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($47.53) toward Bear Floor ($37.07).

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $RYAN• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “RYAN Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
RSI-14 MOMENTUMBULLISH MOMENTUM
61.430 Oversold · 70 Hot
ALTMAN-Z SHIELDFORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)
3.80>3.0 Fortress Safe
PIOTROSKI F-SCORESOLID CORE (5–6)
6 / 99-Pt Accounting
52-WEEK LASER RANGE55% OF RANGE
L: $29$45.48H: $59
1. Money & Cash Health● HEALTHY
Are profits real cash in the bank?

Real cash coming in backs up reported profits (steady margins and healthy balance-sheet cushion).

Factor Grade: BRQD 15 / 20
2. Big Money & Insiders● NEUTRAL
Are whales & executives buying or selling?

Big funds and company insiders are mostly holding steady without aggressive buying or panic selling.

Factor Grade: C+RQD 27 / 40
3. Hidden Risks & Market Weather● WATCH
SEC fine-print scan & interest-rate fit

No major SEC filing blowups, though current interest rates and Fed liquidity call for normal position sizing.

Factor Grade: CRQD 26 / 40
MULTI-MODEL JEV QUANT JURY DELIBERATION

2-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bullish on RYAN

Cash & Moat Bull AI
ROIC & Free Cash Flow Model
BULLISH (75)

10.3% ROIC with 42.0% gross margin and 4.60% FCF yield.

SEC Forensic Auditor AI
10-K Accruals & Altman-Z Guard
NEUTRAL (65)

Altman-Z 4.20 and Piotroski 6/9 pass balance-sheet audit.

Whale & Macro Hawk AI
Options Skew, 13F & Fed NetLiq
BULLISH (67)

27/40 institutional & smart-money positioning score with 13/20 macro alignment.

Bull Case: Why Buyers Like RYAN
  • ✓Strong cash generator (steady margins)—profits are backed by real money, not accounting tricks.
  • ✓Big institutional funds and options desks are actively positioning on the bullish side.
Bear Case: What Could Go Wrong
  • !Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run.
ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Quantitative Research Desk

Scheduled RQD Strong Buys & Whale Accumulation Briefing (RYAN Tape Review)

  • ✓Breakdown of the highest-scoring RQD Green-Light breakouts across our 5,200+ rated universe
  • ✓Forensic Red-Light accounting & dilution traps to review on your watchlist
  • ✓Includes downloadable .ics calendar invite & nightly RQD rating-change email alerts
RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED
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RYAN // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +53.34%▲ RESISTANCE BREAKOUT
2026-11-03O $43.28H $45.48L $43.28C $45.48VOL 3.16M
RES: $44.61SUP: $38.14SMA50: $40.41SMA200: $38.85
$51.01$45.12$39.23$33.34$27.45RES $44.61SUP $38.14$45.482026-05-042026-06-182026-08-052026-09-212026-11-03
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

RYAN Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

Share Count & Dilution Monitor

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle
22.5%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +21.9% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on RYAN today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for RYAN. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for RYAN today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (RYAN)

Financials Rank #148 of 1097 ⚔️ FNF vs RYAN Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Financials Peer Comparison (RYAN vs. FNF, ERIE, EQH, FAF)

Industry: Specialty Insurers (33 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1097 tracked Financials securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Ryan Specialty Holdings Inc. (RYAN) ranks #148 by composite RQD confidence (68/100, grade C+) and #173 by equity capitalization ($11.21B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, FAF leads on earnings valuation at 10.5x trailing P/E, while ERIE leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 24.3% ROIC and — gross margin. ERIE currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 76/100 (B+) compared with RYAN at 68/100 (C+).

Ticker / Company Roarable Grade RQD Score Trailing P/E Gross Margin ROIC 1D Change Market Cap Head-to-Head
RYAN ACTIVE
Ryan Specialty Holdings Inc.
C+ 68/100 — — 10.3% +3.74% $11.21B Benchmark Subject
FNF
Fidelity National Financial Inc.
C- 59/100 17.9x — 1.2% +4.12% $10.86B /fnf-vs-ryan →
ERIE
Erie Indemnity Company
B+ 76/100 20.7x — 24.3% +4.80% $12.07B /erie-vs-ryan →
EQH
Equitable Holdings Inc.
D+ 53/100 — — 0.0% +0.76% $14.70B /eqh-vs-ryan →
FAF
First American Corporation
C- 60/100 10.5x — 7.0% +3.67% $6.52B /faf-vs-ryan →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001849253 ↗

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Ryan Specialty Holdings Inc. (RYAN) reported GAAP revenue of $2.99B (+21.9% vs. FY2024 revenue of $2.46B , and +47.8% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $63.4M, operating cash flow of $643.7M, and free cash flow of $508.9M (+25.9% YoY). On the balance sheet, RYAN closed FY2025 with $10.56B in total assets against $3.29B in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 6/9).

Fiscal Period Filing Date Revenue Net Income Operating Cash Flow Free Cash Flow Total Assets Total Debt
FY2025 (FY) 2025-12-31 $2.99B $63.4M $643.7M $508.9M $10.56B $3.29B
FY2024 (FY) 2024-12-31 $2.46B $94.7M $514.9M $404.4M $9.65B $3.23B
FY2023 (FY) 2023-12-31 $2.03B $61.0M $477.2M $386.0M $6.09B $1.42B

3. RYAN Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is RYAN stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-03, Ryan Specialty Holdings Inc. (NYSE: RYAN) is rated C+ (Hold / HOLD) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 68/100 at a spot price of $45.48 (+3.74% 1D, market cap $11.21B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 15/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 15/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 13/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 13/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 12/20. Across 1097 tracked Financials issuers, RYAN ranks #148 in composite RQD confidence.

How does RYAN compare to FNF and ERIE in the Financials sector?

Within the Financials sector (Specialty Insurers), RYAN carries a Roarable C+ (68/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 10.3%. By comparison, FNF (Fidelity National Financial Inc.) holds a C- grade (59/100 RQD, P/E 17.9x, ROIC 1.2%, cap $10.86B) and ERIE (Erie Indemnity Company) posts a B+ grade (76/100 RQD, P/E 20.7x, ROIC 24.3%, cap $12.07B). Among the 5-stock peer group, FAF leads on earnings multiple (10.5x) while ERIE leads on capital efficiency (24.3% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for RYAN?

Per RYAN's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001849253), Ryan Specialty Holdings Inc. generated $2.99B in revenue (+21.9% YoY), $63.4M in net income, and $508.9M in free cash flow against $10.56B in total assets and $3.29B in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Strong cash generator (steady margins)—profits are backed by real money, not accounting tricks. Primary risk factors monitored: Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is RYAN trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

RYAN last traded at $45.48 (+3.74% on volume of 2,434,597 shares), positioning the stock +12.55% above its 50-day simple moving average ($40.41) and +17.07% above its 200-day simple moving average ($38.85). Across its 52-week range of $29.28 to $58.94, RYAN sits at the 54.6% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 61.4 (BULLISH MOMENTUM) and an implied next-earnings move of ±6.5% ($42.52 to $48.44).

ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 68/100 (C+) ✓ SEC XBRL & RQD VERIFIED

RYAN — Ryan Specialty Holdings Inc.: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Methodology: RQD v6.2 Deterministic 5-Pillar & SEC XBRL Audit
Updated: 2025-12-31

1. Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

Ryan Specialty Holdings Inc. (RYAN) earns a live Roarable RQD composite score of 68/100, corresponding to a C+ letter grade (Roarable Hold) at a spot price of $45.48 (+3.74% 1D, market capitalization $11.21B).

  • Fundamental Cash Engine (15/20): Anchored by return on invested capital (ROIC) of 10.3%, gross margin of —, operating margin of 16.5%, and free cash flow yield of 4.60%.
  • Whale 13F & Options Flow (15/20) + Insider Conviction (12/20): Tracks institutional 13F accumulation, CBOE options call/put positioning, and SEC Form 4 / Congressional PTR filings.
  • Macro Regime Fit (13/20) + Forensic Balance Sheet (13/20): Incorporates a 1.04x equity beta, Altman Z-Score of N/A, Piotroski F-Score of 6/9, and Debt/Equity of N/A.

2. Business Model, Unit Margins & SEC Financial Trajectory

Ryan Specialty Holdings Inc. (RYAN) is a NYSE-listed operating company in the Specialty Insurers industry (Financials sector) with an equity market capitalization of $11.21B. The business operates with a gross margin of 0%, an operating margin of 16.5%, and a return on invested capital (ROIC) of 10.3% (free cash flow yield of 4.6%). Within the Specialty Insurers peer group, investor evaluation centers on operating leverage, unit margin durability, and capital allocation efficiency across market cycles.

In its latest audited SEC EDGAR 10-K filing for FY2025 (filed 2025-12-31), Ryan Specialty Holdings Inc. (RYAN) reported $2.99B in annual revenue (up from $2.46B in FY2024, +21.9% YoY) and $63.4M in GAAP net income. Over the multi-year SEC filing window from FY2023 ($2.03B revenue, $61.0M net income) through FY2025, RYAN scaled operating cash flow to $643.7M and free cash flow to $508.9M, backed by $10.56B in total assets against $3.29B in total debt.

3. Institutional Bull vs. Bear Thesis & Valuation Tradeoff

  • 🐂 Primary Bull Case (C+ • RQD 68/100): Strong cash generator (steady margins)—profits are backed by real money, not accounting tricks. Big institutional funds and options desks are actively positioning on the bullish side. With Fundamental Cash Engine at 15/20 and Institutional Whale Flow at 15/20, sustained execution supports upside toward the upper end of the $29.28 – $58.94 52-week range.
  • 🐻 Primary Bear Case & Valuation Risk: Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run. Investors must weigh current valuation and 23.4x EV/EBITDA against 16.5% operating margins and a 1.04x macro beta.

4. 2nd-Order Butterfly Ripples & Key Questions to Watch

— The Butterfly Supply-Chain Graph reports supply chain as NONE, with no upstream or downstream links and no sector correlations provided. The only sector context is the Financials / Specialty Insurers classification. Investors should note that the absence of mapped links means no second-order dependencies can be assessed from this source.

  • Key Question #1: Can RYAN sustain or expand its 16.5% operating margin and 10.3% ROIC against Specialty Insurers peers over the next 4 quarters?
  • Key Question #2: Following FY2025 revenue of $2.99B and free cash flow of $508.9M, how will capital allocation balance growth reinvestment against $3.29B in total debt?
  • Key Question #3: How sensitive is RYAN's equity valuation to Financials capital spending cycles and macro interest-rate shifts (Beta 1.04x)?

RYAN Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for Ryan Specialty Holdings Inc. (RYAN) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to RYAN Debate Forum (3) ↓
🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

RYAN Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $45.48?

🐂 67% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON RYAN 🐻 33% BEARISH CONVICTION
1. Pick Your Side on RYAN:
💡 Tip: Back up your call with a price target or RQD metric to get upvoted to the top.
AL AlphaFlow_Cap RQD DEBATE OPENER • Verified $100K Arena Trader 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $56.55 (+29.0%)
📌 Pinned Debate

Per the Roarable RQD rating, a 4.6% FCF yield and 10.3% ROIC anchor the strongest pillar at 15/20 in a company with reported revenue gr

The street is overcomplicating Ryan Specialty Holdings Inc. (RYAN). Per the Roarable RQD rating, a 4.6% FCF yield and 10.3% ROIC anchor the strongest pillar at 15/20 in a company with reported revenue growing from $2.03B to $2.99B.. With an RQD score of 68/100 (C+) and Forensic Balance Sheet at 13/20, any positive earnings surprise or guidance raise forces underweight funds to chase above $47.35.

SectorRotator 🐂 BULL

@ForensicBear Fair point on current EV/EBITDA multiples, but you're ignoring the forward operating leverage in Specialty Insurers. If gross margin (0.0%) holds, EPS grows into the multiple faster than bears think.

FO ForensicBear RQD DEBATE OPENER • 10-K Footnote Auditor 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $35.95 (-18.0%)
Spot @ $43.84

Per the market data, cash fell from $540.2M to $158.3M while debt rose from $1.42B to $3.29B, against an EV/EBITDA of 23.4 and a 2.

Per the market data, cash fell from $540.2M to $158.3M while debt rose from $1.42B to $3.29B, against an EV/EBITDA of 23.4 and a 2.1% net margin.. Look at the math on RYAN: paying current EV/EBITDA multiples for 10.3% ROIC and 16.5% operating margins leaves zero margin of safety if Specialty Insurers demand softens. I'd wait for a retest of $38.58 before getting long.

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