ROARABLE
FREE $100K
Today Screener Big Ideas Track Record 💰 $100K Arena 🎲 Predictions 🏛️ Insiders 8 Analysts
Stock Ratings / Industrials / RUN / forecast
ALG (60) MFP (48) ATS (45) HSAI (38) ⌘ Pro Terminal →

Sunrun Inc. (RUN) 12-Month Stock Forecast & Price Target Cone

$8.25 +10.29% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $8.39

Sunrun Inc. (RUN) carries a Roarable Rating of E (Strong Sell) with 25/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

ROARABLE E • RED ALERT Cap $1.80B
📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card
⚡ INSTANT AI QUANT PREVIEW • $0 FREE TIER Click Any Pre-Computed AI Quant Specialist Briefing on RUN Below — or Connect Your Own ChatGPT / Claude
🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is RUN stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
▼

As of 2026-11-03, Sunrun Inc. (NASDAQ: RUN) is rated E (Strong Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 25/100 at a spot price of $8.25 (+10.29% 1D, market cap $1.80B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 3/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 6/20, Executive Insider Alignment 10/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 3/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 5/20. Across 485 tracked Industrials issuers, RUN ranks #444 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does RUN compare to ALG and MFP in the Industrials sector?
▼

Within the Industrials sector (Industrial Machinery/Components), RUN carries a Roarable E (25/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of —, and ROIC of -3.2%. By comparison, ALG (Alamo Group Inc.) holds a C- grade (60/100 RQD, P/E 17.2x, ROIC 14.3%, cap $1.80B) and MFP (Midera Food Processing Inc.) posts a D grade (48/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC —, cap $1.81B). Among the 5-stock peer group, ALG leads on earnings multiple (17.2x) while ALG leads on capital efficiency (14.3% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for RUN?
▼

Per RUN's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001469367), Sunrun Inc. generated $2.96B in revenue (+45.1% YoY), $449.9K in net income, and -$421.4M in free cash flow against $22.61B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Industrials with deep daily trading liquidity.. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $8.39 (+1.66%)🧬 Dilution Drag (+1.92% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 3/20 (E) • 0% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →
📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (25/100 · E) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows (-10.7% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 29.0% hit rate).
Audit Bucket Track Record →
RQD QUANT TACHOMETERRED ALERT • E
025507510025
3-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bearish Warning
Cash
SEC
Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw E · Rk E
Cash (3)Whales (6)SEC (10)Macro (3)CEO (5)
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE-14.9% Base Target
$23 Bull$7 Base$5 Bear
📬 FREE RUN RATING-CHANGE & BRIEFING ALERTSManage / Unsubscribe
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for RUN)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±11%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (25/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY RUN SCORES 25/100 (E) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+10/20 pts (40% of score)

Altman Z-Score 0.20 (DISTRESS RISK (<1.8)) • Piotroski F-Score 4/9

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Whale & Options Positioning+6/20 pts (24% of score)

20D Institutional Volume Accumulation (±11% realized swing band)

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Macro Regime Fit4/20 pts (-16 pt drag)

Macro rate sensitivity & RSI-14 (45.8) create a -16 pt regime headwind

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)
17
Grade E$7.79-2.8% Next Q
Q2 (-2Q)
20
Grade E$7.57-0.5% Next Q
Q3 (-1Q)
22
Grade E$7.53+9.6% Next Q
Current
25
Grade E$8.25-10.7% Hist 90D α
Trajectory: E (17) → E (25)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a RUN Turnaround Squeeze

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

While RUN currently carries a cautious 25/100 (E) rating due to Macro Regime Fit (4/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1

Established market leader in Industrials with deep daily trading liquidity.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2

Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($8.06) and Max Pain ($8.66) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $23.05.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3

Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Dilution Drag (+1.92% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $RUN• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “RUN Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
YES 25%NO 75%Trade / Inspect Odds →
INTERACTIVE 12-MONTH POSITION SIMULATOR

Drag to Test Your RUN Position Size: $10,000

Shares at $8.25: 1212.1 sh
$1,000$10,000$25,000$50,000$100,000
12M Bear Case FloorTarget $5.48
$6,642
$-3,358 (-33.6%)
12M Consensus BaseTarget $7.02
$8,509
$-1,491 (-14.9%)
12M Bull Case BreakoutTarget $23.05
$27,939
+$17,939 (+179.4%)

Wall Street Analyst Breakdown & Historical Accuracy Audit (35 Desks)

Street Historical Accuracy: 64/100
● Strong Buy / Buy: 17● Hold: 9● Sell: 9
Wall Street FirmStance12M Target1Y AccuracyTrack Grade
Morgan StanleyInstitutional Equity DeskHOLD$774%A
Goldman SachsSector Coverage LeadUNDERPERFORM$2269%B
JP MorganUS Large-Cap ResearchSELL$658%C
ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring RUN)

  • ✓Walkthrough of RUN's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
  • ✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
  • ✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks
RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED
Want Custom AI PineScript / Python Indicators & Priority Rating-Change Alerts?
Join Founding VIP Waitlist (No Card Required) →$100K Arena
RUN // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -35.04%▲ RESISTANCE BREAKOUT
2026-11-03O $7.59H $8.25L $7.48C $8.25VOL 9.88M
RES: $6.36SUP: $6.36SMA50: $8.06SMA200: $12.32
$17.49$14.59$11.68$8.78$5.88RES $6.36SUP $6.36$8.252026-05-042026-06-172026-08-042026-09-182026-11-03
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

RUN Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 RUN Butterfly Map → + Track RUN →
Share Count & Dilution Monitor

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle
8.0%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +45.1% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on RUN today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for RUN. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for RUN today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (RUN)

Industrials Rank #444 of 485 ⚔️ ALG vs RUN Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Industrials Peer Comparison (RUN vs. ALG, MFP, ATS, HSAI)

Industry: Industrial Machinery/Components (208 Tracked Issuers)

Across 485 tracked Industrials securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Sunrun Inc. (RUN) ranks #444 by composite RQD confidence (25/100, grade E) and #216 by equity capitalization ($1.80B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, ALG leads on earnings valuation at 17.2x trailing P/E, while ALG leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 14.3% ROIC and 24.8% gross margin. ALG currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 60/100 (C-) compared with RUN at 25/100 (E).

Ticker / Company Roarable Grade RQD Score Trailing P/E Gross Margin ROIC 1D Change Market Cap Head-to-Head
RUN ACTIVE
Sunrun Inc.
E 25/100 — — -3.2% +10.29% $1.80B Benchmark Subject
ALG
Alamo Group Inc.
C- 60/100 17.2x 24.8% 14.3% +3.36% $1.80B /alg-vs-run →
MFP
Midera Food Processing Inc.
D 48/100 — — — +2.47% $1.81B /mfp-vs-run →
ATS
ATS Corporation
D 45/100 — — — +3.15% $1.78B /ats-vs-run →
HSAI
Hesai Group
D- 38/100 32.7x 41.8% 1.8% +0.99% $1.91B /hsai-vs-run →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001469367

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Sunrun Inc. (RUN) reported GAAP revenue of $2.96B (+45.1% vs. FY2024 revenue of $2.04B , and +30.9% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $449.9K, operating cash flow of -$421.4M, and free cash flow of -$421.4M (+45.1% YoY). On the balance sheet, RUN closed FY2025 with $22.61B in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 0.20, Piotroski F-Score: 4/9).

Fiscal Period Filing Date Revenue Net Income Operating Cash Flow Free Cash Flow Total Assets Total Debt
FY2025 (FY) 2025-12-31 $2.96B $449.9K -$421.4M -$421.4M $22.61B —
FY2024 (FY) 2024-12-31 $2.04B -$2.85B -$766.2M -$767.7M $19.90B —
FY2023 (FY) 2023-12-31 $2.26B -$1.60B -$820.7M -$820.7M — —

3. RUN Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is RUN stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-03, Sunrun Inc. (NASDAQ: RUN) is rated E (Strong Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 25/100 at a spot price of $8.25 (+10.29% 1D, market cap $1.80B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 3/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 6/20, Executive Insider Alignment 10/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 3/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 5/20. Across 485 tracked Industrials issuers, RUN ranks #444 in composite RQD confidence.

How does RUN compare to ALG and MFP in the Industrials sector?

Within the Industrials sector (Industrial Machinery/Components), RUN carries a Roarable E (25/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of —, and ROIC of -3.2%. By comparison, ALG (Alamo Group Inc.) holds a C- grade (60/100 RQD, P/E 17.2x, ROIC 14.3%, cap $1.80B) and MFP (Midera Food Processing Inc.) posts a D grade (48/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC —, cap $1.81B). Among the 5-stock peer group, ALG leads on earnings multiple (17.2x) while ALG leads on capital efficiency (14.3% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for RUN?

Per RUN's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001469367), Sunrun Inc. generated $2.96B in revenue (+45.1% YoY), $449.9K in net income, and -$421.4M in free cash flow against $22.61B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Industrials with deep daily trading liquidity.. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is RUN trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

RUN last traded at $8.25 (+10.29% on volume of 15,280,978 shares), positioning the stock +2.36% above its 50-day simple moving average ($8.06) and -33.04% below its 200-day simple moving average ($12.32). Across its 52-week range of $6.78 to $21.95, RUN sits at the 9.7% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 45.8 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±11.0% ($7.34 to $9.16).

Direct Sub-Reports: RUN RQD Cockpit RUN 12M Forecast RUN Earnings & Move RUN Dividends & DRIP RUN Insiders & 13F RUN Whale Options RUN Profit Sankey RUN News & Why
ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 25/100 (E) ✓ SEC XBRL & RQD VERIFIED

RUN — Sunrun Inc.: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Methodology: RQD v6.2 Deterministic 5-Pillar & SEC XBRL Audit
Updated: 2025-12-31

1. Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

Sunrun Inc. (RUN) earns a live Roarable RQD composite score of 25/100, corresponding to a E letter grade (Roarable Strong Sell) at a spot price of $8.25 (+10.29% 1D, market capitalization $1.80B).

  • Fundamental Cash Engine (3/20): Anchored by return on invested capital (ROIC) of -3.2%, gross margin of —, operating margin of -4.3%, and free cash flow yield of -23.05%.
  • Whale 13F & Options Flow (6/20) + Insider Conviction (10/20): Tracks institutional 13F accumulation, CBOE options call/put positioning, and SEC Form 4 / Congressional PTR filings.
  • Macro Regime Fit (3/20) + Forensic Balance Sheet (5/20): Incorporates a 1.00x equity beta, Altman Z-Score of 0.20, Piotroski F-Score of 4/9, and Debt/Equity of N/A.

2. Business Model, Unit Margins & SEC Financial Trajectory

Sunrun Inc. (RUN) is a NASDAQ-listed issuer classified under the Industrials sector and the Industrial Machinery/Components industry..8B.

In its latest audited SEC EDGAR 10-K filing for FY2025 (filed 2025-12-31), Sunrun Inc. (RUN) reported $2.96B in annual revenue (up from $2.04B in FY2024, +45.1% YoY) and $449.9K in GAAP net income. Over the multi-year SEC filing window from FY2023 ($2.26B revenue, -$1.60B net income) through FY2025, RUN scaled operating cash flow to -$421.4M and free cash flow to -$421.4M, backed by $22.61B in total assets against $0 in total debt.

3. Institutional Bull vs. Bear Thesis & Valuation Tradeoff

  • 🐂 Primary Bull Case (E • RQD 25/100): Established market leader in Industrials with deep daily trading liquidity. Free cash flow yield of -23.05% and institutional whale pillar of 6/20. With Fundamental Cash Engine at 3/20 and Institutional Whale Flow at 6/20, sustained execution supports upside toward the upper end of the $6.78 – $21.95 52-week range.
  • 🐻 Primary Bear Case & Valuation Risk: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. Investors must weigh current valuation against -4.3% operating margins and a 1.00x macro beta.

4. 2nd-Order Butterfly Ripples & Key Questions to Watch

— The Butterfly Supply-Chain Graph records no upstream or downstream dependencies and no proprietary signals. Sector correlation data is not provided. The one sector-level observation in the news wire is the 24/7 Wall St. Report describing a solar-sector rebound alongside SolarEdge and Enphase Energy; the source does not quantify any linkage between those names and Sunrun.

  • Key Question #1: Can RUN sustain or expand its -4.3% operating margin and -3.2% ROIC against Industrial Machinery/Components peers over the next 4 quarters?
  • Key Question #2: Following FY2025 revenue of $2.96B and free cash flow of -$421.4M, how will capital allocation balance growth reinvestment against $0 in total debt?
  • Key Question #3: How sensitive is RUN's equity valuation to Industrials capital spending cycles and macro interest-rate shifts (Beta 1.00x)?

RUN Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for Sunrun Inc. (RUN) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to RUN Debate Forum (3) ↓
🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

RUN Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $8.25?

🐂 67% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON RUN 🐻 33% BEARISH CONVICTION
1. Pick Your Side on RUN:
💡 Tip: Back up your call with a price target or RQD metric to get upvoted to the top.
AL AlphaFlow_Cap RQD DEBATE OPENER • Verified $100K Arena Trader 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $8.90 (+19.0%)
📌 Pinned Debate

Price rebounded 10% from its 52-week low at $6.78 with FY 2025 revenue of $2.96B, up from $2.04B in FY 2024.

Don't sleep on RUN's setup in Industrials. Price rebounded 10% from its 52-week low at $6.78 with FY 2025 revenue of $2.96B, up from $2.04B in FY 2024.. Beta of 1.0 means it moves fast when momentum turns, and the 5-pillar RQD gauge (25/100) backs up the fundamental quality.

VolSurface_Trader 🐂 BULL

Both sides have a point here — RUN's 10/20 balance sheet score keeps downside contained, so the real swing factor next earnings call is backlog and FCF conversion.

BE BearTrap_Alert RQD DEBATE OPENER • Cycle Peak Watcher 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $6.06 (-19.0%)
Spot @ $7.48

ROIC of -3.2%, FCF yield of -23.05%, and an Altman Z of 0.2 indicate weak cash generation and elevated forensic distress.

I respect the product at Sunrun Inc., but the stock at $7.48 is a different story. ROIC of -3.2%, FCF yield of -23.05%, and an Altman Z of 0.2 indicate weak cash generation and elevated forensic distress.. FCF yield is -23.05% and RQD sits at 25/100 (E) — why pay up here when you can wait for next quarter's numbers?

LIVE TAPE SPY $752.10 -1.80% QQQ $681.09 -3.60% DIA $519.34 -1.08% IWM $279.14 -1.68% NVDA $202.06 -1.26% AAPL $338.32 -1.83% MSFT $507.12 -2.83% TSLA $403.82 +1.00% PLTR $178.34 -3.13% SOFI $16.60 -0.95% IBIT $43.35 -5.42% GLD $361.65 -3.59%