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Rio Tinto Plc (RIO) Insider, 13F Hedge Fund & Politician Buy/Sell Thermometer

$82.73 +1.03% NYSE • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $82.73

Rio Tinto Plc (RIO) carries a Roarable Rating of D+ (Sell) with 52/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

ROARABLE D+ • SELL / AVOID Cap $102.86B
📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card
⚡ INSTANT AI QUANT PREVIEW • $0 FREE TIER Click Any Pre-Computed AI Quant Specialist Briefing on RIO Below — or Connect Your Own ChatGPT / Claude
🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is RIO stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
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As of 2026-11-03, Rio Tinto Plc (NYSE: RIO) is rated D+ (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 52/100 at a spot price of $82.73 (+1.03% 1D, market cap $102.86B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 11/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 6/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 16/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 7/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 12/20. Across 270 tracked Materials issuers, RIO ranks #75 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does RIO compare to FCX and SCCO in the Materials sector?
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Within the Materials sector (Metal Mining), RIO carries a Roarable D+ (52/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 32.8x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 9.9%. By comparison, FCX (Freeport-McMoRan Inc.) holds a C- grade (60/100 RQD, P/E 43.1x, ROIC 21.5%, cap $89.71B) and SCCO (Southern Copper Corporation) posts a C grade (62/100 RQD, P/E 37.3x, ROIC 41.0%, cap $149.89B). Among the 5-stock peer group, RIO leads on earnings multiple (32.8x) while SCCO leads on capital efficiency (41.0% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for RIO?
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For Rio Tinto Plc (RIO), key quantitative strengths include Clean SEC annual filing review with no major hidden accounting time-bombs and sector rank #75 in Materials, while primary risk factors center on Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity and implied 5-year growth hurdle of 25.3%/yr. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $82.73 (+0.00%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-1.24% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 11/20 (D+) • 15.8% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →
📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 52/100 (D+) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (-1.1% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 50.1% hit rate — wait for RQD ≥ 70 breakout).
Audit Bucket Track Record →
RQD QUANT TACHOMETERSELL / AVOID • D+
025507510052
JEV AI Jury Split (Battleground)
Cash
SEC
Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw D · Rk D+
Cash (11)Whales (6)SEC (16)Macro (7)CEO (12)
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE-2.7% Base Target
$118 Bull$81 Base$63 Bear
📬 FREE RIO RATING-CHANGE & BRIEFING ALERTSManage / Unsubscribe
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for RIO)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±4.2%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (52/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY RIO SCORES 52/100 (D+) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+16/20 pts (31% of score)

Altman Z-Score 3.74 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) • Piotroski F-Score 7/9

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution+12/20 pts (23% of score)

SEC Form 4 / 13F Thermometer: 60% Net Buy • Cannibal Buyback (-1.24% YoY Shares)

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Whale & Options Positioning6/20 pts (-14 pt drag)

Put hedging (50% put share) caps near-term gamma upside (-14 pts vs max)

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)
60
Grade C$91.25-4.7% Next Q
Q2 (-2Q)
57
Grade C$86.92-1.1% Next Q
Q3 (-1Q)
55
Grade C$85.93-3.7% Next Q
Current
52
Grade D+$82.73-1.1% Hist 90D α
Trajectory: C (60) → D+ (52)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a RIO Turnaround Squeeze

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

While RIO currently carries a cautious 52/100 (D+) rating due to Whale & Options Positioning (6/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1

Clean SEC annual filing review with no major hidden accounting time-bombs.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2

Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($94.01) and Max Pain ($86.87) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $118.21.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3

Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Cannibal Buyback (-1.24% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $RIO• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “RIO Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Upcoming Quarter) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
YES 52%NO 48%Trade / Inspect Odds →
SEC FORM 4 × 13F HEDGE FUNDS × CONGRESSIONAL STOCK ACT

RIO Smart-Money Thermometer: BALANCED INSTITUTIONAL POSITIONING

Explore All 13F & Congress Whales →
▲ Disclosed Buys: 0 ($0)▼ Disclosed Sales: 0 ($0)

Wide-Open SEC Form 4, 13F & Congressional Disclosure Ledger (RIO)

No recent open-market Form 4 cluster sales or emergency dumps flagged on RIO. Visit the Global 13F & Congressional Whale Ledger for cross-market smart-money filings.

ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring RIO)

  • ✓Walkthrough of RIO's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
  • ✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
  • ✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks
RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED
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RIO // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -16.12%🛡️ HOLDING TREND SUPPORT
2026-11-03O $83.25H $83.25L $81.89C $82.73VOL 5.26M
RES: $102.2SUP: $80.14SMA50: $94.01SMA200: $96.36
$115.0$105.1$95.13$85.20$75.28RES $102.2SUP $80.14$82.732026-05-042026-06-182026-08-052026-09-212026-11-03
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

RIO Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 RIO Butterfly Map → + Track RIO →
Share Count & Dilution Monitor

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle
25.3%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +1.1% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on RIO today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for RIO. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for RIO today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (RIO)

Materials Rank #75 of 270 ⚔️ FCX vs RIO Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Materials Peer Comparison (RIO vs. FCX, SCCO, VALE, HBM)

Industry: Metal Mining (41 Tracked Issuers)

Across 270 tracked Materials securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Rio Tinto Plc (RIO) ranks #75 by composite RQD confidence (52/100, grade D+) and #4 by equity capitalization ($102.86B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, RIO leads on earnings valuation at 32.8x trailing P/E, while SCCO leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 41.0% ROIC and 60.1% gross margin. SCCO currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 62/100 (C) compared with RIO at 52/100 (D+).

Ticker / Company Roarable Grade RQD Score Trailing P/E Gross Margin ROIC 1D Change Market Cap Head-to-Head
RIO ACTIVE
Rio Tinto Plc
D+ 52/100 32.8x — 9.9% +1.03% $102.86B Benchmark Subject
FCX
Freeport-McMoRan Inc.
C- 60/100 43.1x 26.1% 21.5% +0.80% $89.71B /fcx-vs-rio →
SCCO
Southern Copper Corporation
C 62/100 37.3x 60.1% 41.0% +1.03% $149.89B /scco-vs-rio →
VALE
VALE S.A. American
D+ 52/100 32.8x — 9.9% -0.44% $48.63B /vale-vs-rio →
HBM
Hudbay Minerals Inc. (Canada)
D+ 52/100 32.8x — 9.9% 0.00% $9.64B /hbm-vs-rio →

2. RIO Fundamental Profitability, Capital Efficiency & Balance-Sheet Forensics

TRAILING 12M & FORWARD QUANTITATIVE SNAPSHOT

Rio Tinto Plc (RIO) operates in Metal Mining (Materials) with an equity capitalization of $102.86B, trailing P/E of 32.8x, forward P/E of 30.5x, and EV/EBITDA of 21.0x. Operating profitability registers a gross margin of —, operating margin of 13.9%, net profit margin of 10.9%, ROIC of 9.9%, and free cash flow yield of 2.21%, alongside an Altman Z-Score of 3.74 and Piotroski F-Score of 7/9.

3. RIO Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is RIO stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-03, Rio Tinto Plc (NYSE: RIO) is rated D+ (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 52/100 at a spot price of $82.73 (+1.03% 1D, market cap $102.86B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 11/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 6/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 16/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 7/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 12/20. Across 270 tracked Materials issuers, RIO ranks #75 in composite RQD confidence.

How does RIO compare to FCX and SCCO in the Materials sector?

Within the Materials sector (Metal Mining), RIO carries a Roarable D+ (52/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 32.8x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 9.9%. By comparison, FCX (Freeport-McMoRan Inc.) holds a C- grade (60/100 RQD, P/E 43.1x, ROIC 21.5%, cap $89.71B) and SCCO (Southern Copper Corporation) posts a C grade (62/100 RQD, P/E 37.3x, ROIC 41.0%, cap $149.89B). Among the 5-stock peer group, RIO leads on earnings multiple (32.8x) while SCCO leads on capital efficiency (41.0% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for RIO?

For Rio Tinto Plc (RIO), key quantitative strengths include Clean SEC annual filing review with no major hidden accounting time-bombs and sector rank #75 in Materials, while primary risk factors center on Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity and implied 5-year growth hurdle of 25.3%/yr. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is RIO trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

RIO last traded at $82.73 (+1.03% on volume of 2,797,157 shares), positioning the stock -12.00% below its 50-day simple moving average ($94.01) and -14.14% below its 200-day simple moving average ($96.36). Across its 52-week range of $67.74 to $112.58, RIO sits at the 33.4% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 28.5 (OVERSOLD (<32)) and an implied next-earnings move of ±4.2% ($79.26 to $86.20).

Direct Sub-Reports: RIO RQD Cockpit RIO 12M Forecast RIO Earnings & Move RIO Dividends & DRIP RIO Insiders & 13F RIO Whale Options RIO Profit Sankey RIO News & Why
ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 52/100 (D+) ✓ SEC XBRL & RQD VERIFIED

RIO — Rio Tinto Plc: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Methodology: RQD v6.2 Deterministic 5-Pillar & SEC XBRL Audit
Updated: 2026-11-03

1. Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

Rio Tinto Plc (RIO) earns a live Roarable RQD composite score of 52/100, corresponding to a D+ letter grade (Roarable Sell) at a spot price of $82.73 (+1.03% 1D, market capitalization $102.86B).

  • Fundamental Cash Engine (11/20): Anchored by return on invested capital (ROIC) of 9.9%, gross margin of —, operating margin of 13.9%, and free cash flow yield of 2.21%.
  • Whale 13F & Options Flow (6/20) + Insider Conviction (12/20): Tracks institutional 13F accumulation, CBOE options call/put positioning, and SEC Form 4 / Congressional PTR filings.
  • Macro Regime Fit (7/20) + Forensic Balance Sheet (16/20): Incorporates a 1.02x equity beta, Altman Z-Score of 3.74, Piotroski F-Score of 7/9, and Debt/Equity of 0.39x.

2. Business Model, Unit Margins & SEC Financial Trajectory

Rio Tinto Plc (RIO) is a NYSE-listed issuer in the Materials sector, operating in the Metal Mining industry,. Per the market data, the company reports an operating margin of 13.9% and a net margin of 10.9%.

3. Institutional Bull vs. Bear Thesis & Valuation Tradeoff

  • 🐂 Primary Bull Case (D+ • RQD 52/100): Clean SEC annual filing review with no major hidden accounting time-bombs. Free cash flow yield of 2.21% and institutional whale pillar of 6/20. With Fundamental Cash Engine at 11/20 and Institutional Whale Flow at 6/20, sustained execution supports upside toward the upper end of the $67.74 – $112.58 52-week range.
  • 🐻 Primary Bear Case & Valuation Risk: Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity. Investors must weigh 32.8x trailing P/E and 21.0x EV/EBITDA against 13.9% operating margins and a 1.02x macro beta.

4. 2nd-Order Butterfly Ripples & Key Questions to Watch

The source data therefore identifies no upstream suppliers, downstream customers, or sector-correlation paths for RIO..02. Beyond those classifications, no second-order bottleneck or dependency can be identified from the source data.

  • Key Question #1: Can RIO sustain or expand its 13.9% operating margin and 9.9% ROIC against Metal Mining peers over the next 4 quarters?
  • Key Question #2: Will free cash flow conversion (2.21% FCF yield) strengthen balance-sheet liquidity (Altman Z-Score 3.74) toward the $112.58 52-week high?
  • Key Question #3: How sensitive is RIO's 30.5x forward P/E multiple to Materials capital spending cycles and macro interest-rate shifts (Beta 1.02x)?

RIO Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for Rio Tinto Plc (RIO) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to RIO Debate Forum (3) ↓
🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

RIO Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $82.73?

🐂 67% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON RIO 🐻 33% BEARISH CONVICTION
1. Pick Your Side on RIO:
💡 Tip: Back up your call with a price target or RQD metric to get upvoted to the top.
SI SiliconVal_Bull RQD DEBATE OPENER • Growth & Tech Investor 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $97.45 (+19.0%)
📌 Pinned Debate

The Forensic Balance Sheet pillar scores 16 / 20, supported by an Altman Z-Score of 3.74, a Piotroski F-Score of 7/9, and Debt/Equity o

Don't sleep on RIO's setup in Materials. The Forensic Balance Sheet pillar scores 16 / 20, supported by an Altman Z-Score of 3.74, a Piotroski F-Score of 7/9, and Debt/Equity of 0.39.. Beta of 1.02 means it moves fast when momentum turns, and the 5-pillar RQD gauge (52/100) backs up the fundamental quality.

EarningsSniper 🐂 BULL

Both sides have a point here — RIO's 16/20 balance sheet score keeps downside contained, so the real swing factor next earnings call is backlog and FCF conversion.

FA FadeTheHype RQD DEBATE OPENER • Contrarian Tape Reader 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $63.06 (-23.0%)
Spot @ $81.89

Whale 13F Flow and Macro Regime Fit each score only 7 / 20, while the trailing P/E of 32.8 sits against a 2.21% FCF yield.

I respect the product at Rio Tinto Plc, but the stock at $81.89 is a different story. Whale 13F Flow and Macro Regime Fit each score only 7 / 20, while the trailing P/E of 32.8 sits against a 2.21% FCF yield.. FCF yield is 2.21% and RQD sits at 52/100 (D+) — why pay up here when you can wait for next quarter's numbers?

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