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Stock Ratings / Industrials / RDW / earnings
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Redwire Corporation (RDW) Next Earnings Date & Expected ±12.5% Move

$7.83 -6.67% NYSE • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $7.72

Redwire Corporation (RDW) carries a Roarable Rating of E (Strong Sell) with 31/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

ROARABLE E • RED ALERT Cap $2.10B
📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card
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🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is RDW stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
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As of 2026-11-03, Redwire Corporation (NYSE: RDW) is rated E (Strong Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 31/100 at a spot price of $7.83 (-6.67% 1D, market cap $2.10B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 6/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 5/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 10/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 5/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 5/20. Across 486 tracked Industrials issuers, RDW ranks #396 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does RDW compare to AADX and DCO in the Industrials sector?
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Within the Industrials sector (Military/Government/Technical), RDW carries a Roarable E (31/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of 5.2%, and ROIC of -17.4%. By comparison, AADX (Applied Aerospace & Defense Inc.) holds a D- grade (42/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC —, cap $1.92B) and DCO (Ducommun Incorporated) posts a D- grade (37/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -3.1%, cap $2.42B). Among the 5-stock peer group, ATRO leads on earnings multiple (92.1x) while ATRO leads on capital efficiency (13.2% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for RDW?
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Per RDW's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001819810), Redwire Corporation generated $335.4M in revenue (+10.3% YoY), -$226.6M in net income, and -$190.8M in free cash flow against $1.45B in total assets and $80.0M in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Industrials with deep daily trading liquidity. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $7.72 (-1.39%)🧬 Dilution Drag (+1.92% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 6/20 (E) • 0% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →
📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (31/100 · E) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows (-9.4% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 29.0% hit rate).
Audit Bucket Track Record →
RQD QUANT TACHOMETERRED ALERT • E
025507510031
3-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bearish Warning
Cash
SEC
Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw E · Rk D-
Cash (6)Whales (5)SEC (10)Macro (5)CEO (5)
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE-12.1% Base Target
$28 Bull$7 Base$5 Bear
📬 FREE RDW RATING-CHANGE & BRIEFING ALERTSManage / Unsubscribe
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for RDW)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±12.5%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (31/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY RDW SCORES 31/100 (E) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+10/20 pts (32% of score)

Altman Z-Score 3.59 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) • Piotroski F-Score 4/9

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Cash Engine Quality+6/20 pts (19% of score)

SEC XBRL FY 2025 (10-K): 0% FCF Margin ($0 FCF) & 5.2% Gross Margin

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution5/20 pts (-15 pt drag)

Dilution Drag (+1.92% YoY Shares) & executive Form 4 sales trim 15 pts from alignment

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)
39
Grade E$8.62-0.7% Next Q
Q2 (-2Q)
36
Grade E$8.56+5.3% Next Q
Q3 (-1Q)
34
Grade E$9.01-13.1% Next Q
Current
31
Grade E$7.83-9.4% Hist 90D α
Trajectory: E (39) → E (31)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a RDW Turnaround Squeeze

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

While RDW currently carries a cautious 31/100 (E) rating due to Insider Conviction & Share Dilution (5/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1

Established market leader in Industrials with deep daily trading liquidity.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2

Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($10.04) and Max Pain ($8.22) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $27.97.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3

Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Dilution Drag (+1.92% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $RDW• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “RDW Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
YES 31%NO 69%Trade / Inspect Odds →
NEXT EST. WINDOW: Dec 30, 2026 (~56 DAYS)

Historical OHLCV Volatility ±12.5% Swing Band

±$0.98 Expected Swing
$6.85 (-12.5%)Spot $7.83$8.81 (+12.5%)
MODEL EARNINGS SETUP GAUGE

RDW Quantitative Pre-Earnings Setup: 31/100

Trailing EPS: $-0.91 • YoY Revenue Growth: 10.3%

Model Bullish Setup (31/100)Model Risk Weight (69/100)
Derived deterministically from RQD cash-flow quality, SEC accrual safety, and institutional flow (not a community poll).
LOG YOUR PERSONAL PRE-EARNINGS STANCE (SAVED LOCALLY IN BROWSER):

Recent SEC Reported Revenue, Net Profit & Diluted EPS Cadence

PeriodFiledRevenueNet ProfitFree Cash FlowGross Margin
FY 20252025-12-31$335.4M-$226.6M-$190.8M5.2%
FY 20242024-12-31$304.1M-$114.3M-$23.7M14.6%
FY 20232023-12-31$243.8M-$27.3M-$9.7M8%
ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring RDW)

  • ✓Walkthrough of RDW's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
  • ✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
  • ✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks
RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED
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RDW // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -9.38%🛡️ HOLDING TREND SUPPORT
2026-11-03O $9.16H $9.16L $7.83C $7.83VOL 11.93M
RES: $9.95SUP: $7.33SMA50: $10.04SMA200: $11.05
$27.96$22.49$17.01$11.54$6.06RES $9.95SUP $7.33$7.832026-05-042026-06-182026-08-052026-09-212026-11-03
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

RDW Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 RDW Butterfly Map → + Track RDW →
Share Count & Dilution Monitor

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle
23.9%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +10.3% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on RDW today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for RDW. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for RDW today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (RDW)

Industrials Rank #396 of 486 ⚔️ AADX vs RDW Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Industrials Peer Comparison (RDW vs. AADX, DCO, ATRO, VOYG)

Industry: Military/Government/Technical (43 Tracked Issuers)

Across 486 tracked Industrials securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Redwire Corporation (RDW) ranks #396 by composite RQD confidence (31/100, grade E) and #206 by equity capitalization ($2.10B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, ATRO leads on earnings valuation at 92.1x trailing P/E, while ATRO leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 13.2% ROIC and 29.9% gross margin. ATRO currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 49/100 (D) compared with RDW at 31/100 (E).

Ticker / Company Roarable Grade RQD Score Trailing P/E Gross Margin ROIC 1D Change Market Cap Head-to-Head
RDW ACTIVE
Redwire Corporation
E 31/100 — 5.2% -17.4% -6.67% $2.10B Benchmark Subject
AADX
Applied Aerospace & Defense Inc.
D- 42/100 — — — -0.18% $1.92B /aadx-vs-rdw →
DCO
Ducommun Incorporated
D- 37/100 — 26.9% -3.1% +2.10% $2.42B /dco-vs-rdw →
ATRO
Astronics Corporation
D 49/100 92.1x 29.9% 13.2% +0.94% $2.55B /atro-vs-rdw →
VOYG
Voyager Technologies Inc. (Class A)
E 16/100 — 18.0% -35.0% -6.96% $1.64B /voyg-vs-rdw →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001819810 ↗

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Redwire Corporation (RDW) reported GAAP revenue of $335.4M (+10.3% vs. FY2024 revenue of $304.1M , and +37.6% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of -$226.6M, operating cash flow of -$177.3M, and free cash flow of -$190.8M (-703.5% YoY). On the balance sheet, RDW closed FY2025 with $1.45B in total assets against $80.0M in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 3.59, Piotroski F-Score: 4/9).

Fiscal Period Filing Date Revenue Net Income Operating Cash Flow Free Cash Flow Total Assets Total Debt
FY2025 (FY) 2025-12-31 $335.4M -$226.6M -$177.3M -$190.8M $1.45B $80.0M
FY2024 (FY) 2024-12-31 $304.1M -$114.3M -$17.3M -$23.7M $292.6M $124.5M
FY2023 (FY) 2023-12-31 $243.8M -$27.3M $1.2M -$9.7M $1.26B $294.7M

3. RDW Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is RDW stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-03, Redwire Corporation (NYSE: RDW) is rated E (Strong Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 31/100 at a spot price of $7.83 (-6.67% 1D, market cap $2.10B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 6/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 5/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 10/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 5/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 5/20. Across 486 tracked Industrials issuers, RDW ranks #396 in composite RQD confidence.

How does RDW compare to AADX and DCO in the Industrials sector?

Within the Industrials sector (Military/Government/Technical), RDW carries a Roarable E (31/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of 5.2%, and ROIC of -17.4%. By comparison, AADX (Applied Aerospace & Defense Inc.) holds a D- grade (42/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC —, cap $1.92B) and DCO (Ducommun Incorporated) posts a D- grade (37/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -3.1%, cap $2.42B). Among the 5-stock peer group, ATRO leads on earnings multiple (92.1x) while ATRO leads on capital efficiency (13.2% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for RDW?

Per RDW's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001819810), Redwire Corporation generated $335.4M in revenue (+10.3% YoY), -$226.6M in net income, and -$190.8M in free cash flow against $1.45B in total assets and $80.0M in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Industrials with deep daily trading liquidity. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is RDW trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

RDW last traded at $7.83 (-6.67% on volume of 12,728,697 shares), positioning the stock -22.01% below its 50-day simple moving average ($10.04) and -29.14% below its 200-day simple moving average ($11.05). Across its 52-week range of $4.87 to $26.64, RDW sits at the 13.6% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 40.9 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±12.5% ($6.85 to $8.81).

Direct Sub-Reports: RDW RQD Cockpit RDW 12M Forecast RDW Earnings & Move RDW Dividends & DRIP RDW Insiders & 13F RDW Whale Options RDW Profit Sankey RDW News & Why
ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 31/100 (E) ✓ SEC XBRL & RQD VERIFIED

RDW — Redwire Corporation: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Methodology: RQD v6.2 Deterministic 5-Pillar & SEC XBRL Audit
Updated: 2025-12-31

1. Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

Redwire Corporation (RDW) earns a live Roarable RQD composite score of 31/100, corresponding to a E letter grade (Roarable Strong Sell) at a spot price of $7.83 (-6.67% 1D, market capitalization $2.10B).

  • Fundamental Cash Engine (6/20): Anchored by return on invested capital (ROIC) of -17.4%, gross margin of 5.2%, operating margin of -60.0%, and free cash flow yield of -8.33%.
  • Whale 13F & Options Flow (5/20) + Insider Conviction (5/20): Tracks institutional 13F accumulation, CBOE options call/put positioning, and SEC Form 4 / Congressional PTR filings.
  • Macro Regime Fit (5/20) + Forensic Balance Sheet (10/20): Incorporates a 0.99x equity beta, Altman Z-Score of 3.59, Piotroski F-Score of 4/9, and Debt/Equity of 0.08x.

2. Business Model, Unit Margins & SEC Financial Trajectory

Redwire Corporation is a NYSE-listed issuer classified under the Industrials sector and the Military/Government/Technical industry.

In its latest audited SEC EDGAR 10-K filing for FY2025 (filed 2025-12-31), Redwire Corporation (RDW) reported $335.4M in annual revenue (up from $304.1M in FY2024, +10.3% YoY) and -$226.6M in GAAP net income. Over the multi-year SEC filing window from FY2023 ($243.8M revenue, -$27.3M net income) through FY2025, RDW scaled operating cash flow to -$177.3M and free cash flow to -$190.8M, backed by $1.45B in total assets against $80.0M in total debt.

3. Institutional Bull vs. Bear Thesis & Valuation Tradeoff

  • 🐂 Primary Bull Case (E • RQD 31/100): Established market leader in Industrials with deep daily trading liquidity. Free cash flow yield of -8.33% and institutional whale pillar of 5/20. With Fundamental Cash Engine at 6/20 and Institutional Whale Flow at 5/20, sustained execution supports upside toward the upper end of the $4.87 – $26.64 52-week range.
  • 🐻 Primary Bear Case & Valuation Risk: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. Investors must weigh current valuation against -60.0% operating margins and a 0.99x macro beta.

4. 2nd-Order Butterfly Ripples & Key Questions to Watch

No upstream or downstream dependencies, sector correlations, or second-order bottlenecks are available in the source data. Investors should note that the absence of mapped links means this analysis cannot identify ripple effects from suppliers or customers.

  • Key Question #1: Can RDW sustain or expand its -60.0% operating margin and -17.4% ROIC against Military/Government/Technical peers over the next 4 quarters?
  • Key Question #2: Following FY2025 revenue of $335.4M and free cash flow of -$190.8M, how will capital allocation balance growth reinvestment against $80.0M in total debt?
  • Key Question #3: How sensitive is RDW's 31.0x forward P/E multiple to Industrials capital spending cycles and macro interest-rate shifts (Beta 0.99x)?

RDW Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for Redwire Corporation (RDW) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to RDW Debate Forum (3) ↓
🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

RDW Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $7.83?

🐂 67% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON RDW 🐻 33% BEARISH CONVICTION
1. Pick Your Side on RDW:
💡 Tip: Back up your call with a price target or RQD metric to get upvoted to the top.
DE DeepValue_CFA RQD DEBATE OPENER • Institutional Buy-Side 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $10.99 (+31.0%)
📌 Pinned Debate

Forensic balance sheet is the strongest pillar, with Altman Z 3.59, Piotroski F 4/9, and Debt/Equity 0.08 alongside debt reduced from $

Don't sleep on RDW's setup in Industrials. Forensic balance sheet is the strongest pillar, with Altman Z 3.59, Piotroski F 4/9, and Debt/Equity 0.08 alongside debt reduced from $294.7M to $80.0M.. Beta of 0.99 means it moves fast when momentum turns, and the 5-pillar RQD gauge (31/100) backs up the fundamental quality.

ArenaChamp_24 🐂 BULL

@CreditSpread_Watch Fair point on 31.0x forward P/E, but you're ignoring the forward operating leverage in Military/Government/Technical. If gross margin (5.2%) holds, EPS grows into the multiple faster than bears think.

CR CreditSpread_Watch RQD DEBATE OPENER • Balance Sheet Analyst 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $7.22 (-13.9%)
Spot @ $8.39

Negative ROIC of -17.4%, FCF yield of -8.33%, and FY 2025 net loss of -$226.6M leave the cash engine and sentiment pillars scoring 5 to

Fading this rally in RDW at $8.39. Negative ROIC of -17.4%, FCF yield of -8.33%, and FY 2025 net loss of -$226.6M leave the cash engine and sentiment pillars scoring 5 to 6 out of 20.. With a beta of 0.99 and the stock sitting at $8.39 (52-wk range $4.87–$26.64), the easy multiple expansion is already priced in.

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