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Provident Financial Holdings Inc. (PROV) — RQD Stock Rating Cockpit

$18.17 -0.16% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $18.13

Provident Financial Holdings Inc. (PROV) carries a Roarable Rating of C (Hold) with 64/100 RQD Confidence. The composite score sits in the neutral Hold band (59–69), meaning current holders don’t need to panic-sell while prospective buyers can wait for a move into the 70+ Buy zone.

ROARABLE C • HOLD / WATCH Cap $112.6M
📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card
⚡ INSTANT AI QUANT PREVIEW • $0 FREE TIER Click Any Pre-Computed AI Quant Specialist Briefing on PROV Below — or Connect Your Own ChatGPT / Claude
🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is PROV stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
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As of 2026-11-03, Provident Financial Holdings Inc. (NASDAQ: PROV) is rated C (Hold / HOLD) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 64/100 at a spot price of $18.17 (-0.16% 1D, market cap $112.6M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 12/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 10/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 13/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 14/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 15/20. Across 1097 tracked Financials issuers, PROV ranks #289 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does PROV compare to SFBC and BYFC in the Financials sector?
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Within the Financials sector (Savings Institutions), PROV carries a Roarable C (64/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 18.0x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 4.9%. By comparison, SFBC (Sound Financial Bancorp Inc.) holds a C grade (65/100 RQD, P/E 16.1x, ROIC 6.5%, cap $115.6M) and BYFC (Broadway Financial Corporation (Class A)) posts a D- grade (37/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -9.4%, cap $106.3M). Among the 5-stock peer group, SFBC leads on earnings multiple (16.1x) while SFBC leads on capital efficiency (6.5% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for PROV?
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Per PROV's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-06-30, CIK 0001010470), Provident Financial Holdings Inc. generated $515.7M in revenue (-2.2% YoY), $6.3M in net income, and $8.2M in free cash flow against $1.23B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction. Primary risk factors monitored: Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $18.13 (-0.22%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-2.08% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 12/20 (C-) • 1.6% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →
📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 64/100 (C) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (+1.1% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 55.2% hit rate — wait for RQD ≥ 70 breakout).
Audit Bucket Track Record →
RQD QUANT TACHOMETERHOLD / WATCH • C
025507510064
JEV AI Jury Split (Battleground)
Cash
SEC
Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw C · Rk C+
Cash (12)Whales (10)SEC (13)Macro (14)CEO (15)
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE+2.7% Base Target
$22 Bull$19 Base$15 Bear
📬 FREE PROV RATING-CHANGE & BRIEFING ALERTSManage / Unsubscribe
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for PROV)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±1.8%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (64/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY PROV SCORES 64/100 (C) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution+15/20 pts (23% of score)

SEC Form 4 / 13F Thermometer: 75% Net Buy • Cannibal Buyback (-2.08% YoY Shares)

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Macro Regime Fit+14/20 pts (22% of score)

FRED Regime × Technicals: 80% of 52W Range • RSI-14 at 46.4 (NEUTRAL RANGE)

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Whale & Options Positioning10/20 pts (-10 pt drag)

Put hedging (50% put share) caps near-term gamma upside (-10 pts vs max)

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)
56
Grade C$18.10+0.2% Next Q
Q2 (-2Q)
59
Grade C$18.14+0.3% Next Q
Q3 (-1Q)
61
Grade C$18.20-0.2% Next Q
Current
64
Grade C$18.17+1.1% Hist 90D α
Trajectory: C (56) → C (64)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the PROV Bull Thesis Could Fail

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

Even with a 64/100 (C) score, PROV faces multiple-compression risk if 18.0x trailing P/E re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1

Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2

Dilution & Margin Drag: Cannibal Buyback (-2.08% YoY Shares) — any gross margin slip below 49.5% triggers an automatic RQD downgrade.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3

Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($18.34) or 200D SMA ($17.23) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($18.66) toward Bear Floor ($14.55).

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $PROV• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “PROV Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 28, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
YES 64%NO 36%Trade / Inspect Odds →
RSI-14 MOMENTUMNEUTRAL RANGE
46.430 Oversold · 70 Hot
ALTMAN-Z SHIELDFORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)
3.80>3.0 Fortress Safe
PIOTROSKI F-SCOREWEAK QUALITY (1–4)
4 / 99-Pt Accounting
52-WEEK LASER RANGE80% OF RANGE
L: $15$18.17H: $19
1. Money & Cash Health● MIXED
Are profits real cash in the bank?

Decent core business (steady margins), though cash flow growth is moderate rather than explosive right now.

Factor Grade: C-RQD 12 / 20
2. Big Money & Insiders● NEUTRAL
Are whales & executives buying or selling?

Big funds and company insiders are mostly holding steady without aggressive buying or panic selling.

Factor Grade: CRQD 25 / 40
3. Hidden Risks & Market Weather● WATCH
SEC fine-print scan & interest-rate fit

No major SEC filing blowups, though current interest rates and Fed liquidity call for normal position sizing.

Factor Grade: C+RQD 27 / 40
MULTI-MODEL JEV QUANT JURY DELIBERATION

JEV AI Jury Split (Battleground) on PROV

Cash & Moat Bull AI
ROIC & Free Cash Flow Model
NEUTRAL (60)

4.9% ROIC with 42.0% gross margin and 7.23% FCF yield.

SEC Forensic Auditor AI
10-K Accruals & Altman-Z Guard
NEUTRAL (65)

Altman-Z 4.20 and Piotroski 4/9 pass balance-sheet audit.

Whale & Macro Hawk AI
Options Skew, 13F & Fed NetLiq
NEUTRAL (65)

25/40 institutional & smart-money positioning score with 14/20 macro alignment.

Bull Case: Why Buyers Like PROV
  • ✓Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction.
Bear Case: What Could Go Wrong
  • !Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run.
ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Quantitative Research Desk

Scheduled RQD Strong Buys & Whale Accumulation Briefing (PROV Tape Review)

  • ✓Breakdown of the highest-scoring RQD Green-Light breakouts across our 5,200+ rated universe
  • ✓Forensic Red-Light accounting & dilution traps to review on your watchlist
  • ✓Includes downloadable .ics calendar invite & nightly RQD rating-change email alerts
RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED
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PROV // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +6.26%🛡️ HOLDING TREND SUPPORT
2026-11-03O $18.20H $18.20L $18.17C $18.17VOL 8.2K
RES: $19.80SUP: $18.09SMA50: $18.34SMA200: $17.23
$19.21$18.31$17.41$16.51$15.61RES $19.80SUP $18.09$18.172026-05-042026-06-172026-08-042026-09-182026-11-03
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

PROV Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 PROV Butterfly Map → + Track PROV →
Share Count & Dilution Monitor

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle
11.2%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. -2.2% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on PROV today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for PROV. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for PROV today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (PROV)

Financials Rank #289 of 1097 ⚔️ SFBC vs PROV Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Financials Peer Comparison (PROV vs. SFBC, BYFC, RVSB, FDSB)

Industry: Savings Institutions (33 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1097 tracked Financials securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Provident Financial Holdings Inc. (PROV) ranks #289 by composite RQD confidence (64/100, grade C) and #948 by equity capitalization ($112.6M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, SFBC leads on earnings valuation at 16.1x trailing P/E, while SFBC leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 6.5% ROIC and — gross margin. SFBC currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 65/100 (C) compared with PROV at 64/100 (C).

Ticker / Company Roarable Grade RQD Score Trailing P/E Gross Margin ROIC 1D Change Market Cap Head-to-Head
PROV ACTIVE
Provident Financial Holdings Inc.
C 64/100 18.0x — 4.9% -0.16% $112.6M Benchmark Subject
SFBC
Sound Financial Bancorp Inc.
C 65/100 16.1x — 6.5% 0.00% $115.6M /sfbc-vs-prov →
BYFC
Broadway Financial Corporation (Class A)
D- 37/100 — — -9.4% -0.17% $106.3M /byfc-vs-prov →
RVSB
Riverview Bancorp Inc
D+ 58/100 — — -2.6% +1.52% $121.2M /rvsb-vs-prov →
FDSB
Fifth District Bancorp Inc.
D+ 58/100 22.3x — 3.2% +0.72% $92.0M /fdsb-vs-prov →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-06-30 • CIK 0001010470 ↗

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-06-30), Provident Financial Holdings Inc. (PROV) reported GAAP revenue of $515.7M (-2.2% vs. FY2024 revenue of $527.1M , and +731.3% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $6.3M, operating cash flow of $8.7M, and free cash flow of $8.2M (+99.1% YoY). On the balance sheet, PROV closed FY2025 with $1.23B in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 4/9).

Fiscal Period Filing Date Revenue Net Income Operating Cash Flow Free Cash Flow Total Assets Total Debt
FY2025 (FY) 2025-06-30 $515.7M $6.3M $8.7M $8.2M $1.23B —
FY2024 (FY) 2024-06-30 $527.1M $7.4M $5.7M $4.1M $1.25B —
FY2023 (FY) 2023-06-30 $62.0M $8.6M $16.3M $16.3M — —

3. PROV Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is PROV stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-03, Provident Financial Holdings Inc. (NASDAQ: PROV) is rated C (Hold / HOLD) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 64/100 at a spot price of $18.17 (-0.16% 1D, market cap $112.6M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 12/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 10/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 13/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 14/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 15/20. Across 1097 tracked Financials issuers, PROV ranks #289 in composite RQD confidence.

How does PROV compare to SFBC and BYFC in the Financials sector?

Within the Financials sector (Savings Institutions), PROV carries a Roarable C (64/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 18.0x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 4.9%. By comparison, SFBC (Sound Financial Bancorp Inc.) holds a C grade (65/100 RQD, P/E 16.1x, ROIC 6.5%, cap $115.6M) and BYFC (Broadway Financial Corporation (Class A)) posts a D- grade (37/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -9.4%, cap $106.3M). Among the 5-stock peer group, SFBC leads on earnings multiple (16.1x) while SFBC leads on capital efficiency (6.5% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for PROV?

Per PROV's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-06-30, CIK 0001010470), Provident Financial Holdings Inc. generated $515.7M in revenue (-2.2% YoY), $6.3M in net income, and $8.2M in free cash flow against $1.23B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction. Primary risk factors monitored: Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is PROV trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

PROV last traded at $18.17 (-0.16% on volume of 8,193 shares), positioning the stock -0.93% below its 50-day simple moving average ($18.34) and +5.46% above its 200-day simple moving average ($17.23). Across its 52-week range of $14.95 to $18.99, PROV sits at the 79.7% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 46.4 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±1.8% ($17.84 to $18.50).

Direct Sub-Reports: PROV RQD Cockpit PROV 12M Forecast PROV Earnings & Move PROV Dividends & DRIP PROV Insiders & 13F PROV Whale Options PROV Profit Sankey PROV News & Why
ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 64/100 (C) ✓ SEC XBRL & RQD VERIFIED

PROV — Provident Financial Holdings Inc.: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Methodology: RQD v6.2 Deterministic 5-Pillar & SEC XBRL Audit
Updated: 2025-06-30

1. Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

Provident Financial Holdings Inc. (PROV) earns a live Roarable RQD composite score of 64/100, corresponding to a C letter grade (Roarable Hold) at a spot price of $18.17 (-0.16% 1D, market capitalization $112.6M).

  • Fundamental Cash Engine (12/20): Anchored by return on invested capital (ROIC) of 4.9%, gross margin of —, operating margin of —, and free cash flow yield of 7.23%.
  • Whale 13F & Options Flow (10/20) + Insider Conviction (15/20): Tracks institutional 13F accumulation, CBOE options call/put positioning, and SEC Form 4 / Congressional PTR filings.
  • Macro Regime Fit (14/20) + Forensic Balance Sheet (13/20): Incorporates a 1.00x equity beta, Altman Z-Score of N/A, Piotroski F-Score of 4/9, and Debt/Equity of N/A.

2. Business Model, Unit Margins & SEC Financial Trajectory

Provident Financial Holdings Inc. (PROV) is a NASDAQ-listed issuer in the Financials sector, Savings Institutions industry. The profile describes the company as operating in Savings Institutions with a market capitalization of $0.1B. — Products, customer segments, and revenue model are not described in the source data.

In its latest audited SEC EDGAR 10-K filing for FY2025 (filed 2025-06-30), Provident Financial Holdings Inc. (PROV) reported $515.7M in annual revenue (up from $527.1M in FY2024, -2.2% YoY) and $6.3M in GAAP net income. Over the multi-year SEC filing window from FY2023 ($62.0M revenue, $8.6M net income) through FY2025, PROV scaled operating cash flow to $8.7M and free cash flow to $8.2M, backed by $1.23B in total assets against $0 in total debt.

3. Institutional Bull vs. Bear Thesis & Valuation Tradeoff

  • 🐂 Primary Bull Case (C • RQD 64/100): Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction. Free cash flow yield of 7.23% and institutional whale pillar of 10/20. With Fundamental Cash Engine at 12/20 and Institutional Whale Flow at 10/20, sustained execution supports upside toward the upper end of the $14.95 – $18.99 52-week range.
  • 🐻 Primary Bear Case & Valuation Risk: Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run. Investors must weigh 18.0x trailing P/E against — operating margins and a 1.00x macro beta.

4. 2nd-Order Butterfly Ripples & Key Questions to Watch

Sector and industry context is limited to Financials and Savings Institutions.

  • Key Question #1: Can PROV sustain or expand its — operating margin and 4.9% ROIC against Savings Institutions peers over the next 4 quarters?
  • Key Question #2: Following FY2025 revenue of $515.7M and free cash flow of $8.2M, how will capital allocation balance growth reinvestment against $0 in total debt?
  • Key Question #3: How sensitive is PROV's 16.7x forward P/E multiple to Financials capital spending cycles and macro interest-rate shifts (Beta 1.00x)?

PROV Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for Provident Financial Holdings Inc. (PROV) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to PROV Debate Forum (3) ↓
🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

PROV Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $18.17?

🐂 67% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON PROV 🐻 33% BEARISH CONVICTION
1. Pick Your Side on PROV:
💡 Tip: Back up your call with a price target or RQD metric to get upvoted to the top.
TA TapeReader_Pro RQD DEBATE OPENER • Price Action & Volume Trader 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $21.80 (+20.0%)
📌 Pinned Debate

Insider conviction scores 15/20 and a 7.23% FCF yield plus a new 5% repurchase plan give the stock a cash-return tailwind.

Long PROV at $18.17 targeting $21.80. Insider conviction scores 15/20 and a 7.23% FCF yield plus a new 5% repurchase plan give the stock a cash-return tailwind.. Institutional whale score is 10/20 and the risk/reward vs. the $14.95 52-week low is skewed heavily in favor of bulls.

EarningsSniper 🐂 BULL

Both sides have a point here — PROV's 13/20 balance sheet score keeps downside contained, so the real swing factor next earnings call is backlog and FCF conversion.

RE RedlineAuditor RQD DEBATE OPENER • Accounting Quality Watch 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $13.99 (-23.0%)
Spot @ $18.17

Net income has fallen from $8.6M to $6.3M over two years, with ROIC at only 4.9% and Piotroski at 4/9.

I respect the product at Provident Financial Holdings Inc., but the stock at $18.17 is a different story. Net income has fallen from $8.6M to $6.3M over two years, with ROIC at only 4.9% and Piotroski at 4/9.. FCF yield is 7.23% and RQD sits at 64/100 (C) — why pay up here when you can wait for next quarter's numbers?

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